Speculation: Roster Building Thread 2019-20: Part XXIX

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I want Hoglander.

You're not the only one

 

[Fitzy]

DeAngelo is worth more to us here than he would get in a trade- thanks to a number of factors. It's one of the reasons why NYR should keep him.

Now on the other hand- if he stays on a two year bridge- two years from now if he keeps this up he could be worth a Subban level return.

NYR could probably get a pretty favorable 2 year option from the arbitrator. Probably around 5 million.

 

[mas0764]

BOLD STATEMENT. We're witnessing in real time, THE turning point of this rebuild. And its name is Igor Shesterkin.

I was lying awake in bed because I couldn't stop thinking about how if the Rangers just let Shesty play every game the rest of this season AND kept Kreider, they could theoretically make the playoffs.

I know it sounds crazy given where they're at in the standings and how many teams they have to jump but if you just extrapolate Shesty's win percentage as a pro over the next 27 games, Rangers could go roughly 21-6 or 20-7. Either way, they'd finish with 100 or more pts.

BUT... then I realized I was missing the bigger picture. If Shesty is officially THE GUY now, we need to reassess the timetable for team building.

Igor Shesterkin will very likely be the biggest accelerator of the rebuild. Bigger than Panarin, bigger than Trouba. Just like Lundqvist 14 years ago. Once Hank took over, we had 40+ wins EVERY SEASON except the 09-10 season. Hank led a very mediocre squad to 14 more wins than they had the previous year in just his rookie season.

Point is, elite goaltending is likely to make us a playoff team (not nec. a contender). It will mask A LOT of our issues.

As a result, we shouldn't be stocking up on draft picks and players that'll take 3-4 years to make the team and 5 or 6 to hit their prime. That would just put us in a cycle of mediocrity. And given many factors, we should make sure our contention window is definitely open by 21-22.

And we need to understand the Kreider, Strome, Buch, Skjei, DeAngelo situations within the context of this timing. And JG and JD need to have a plan for how to flip futures we'd get in any trades for players who can have a more near-term impact. So, if the Rangers get what turns out to be a 30th OA draft pick and a B level prospect in a Kreider trade -- is that really the right move? Like don't we need to get an asset that can be more impactful sooner? Or an asset we're confident can help us land an asset that can make a more immediate impact? And if that's the case, are we just trading CK because of the cap? And is that the smartest way to build a team?

Shesterkin has been great but I feel like this team has been ticking upwards for a few weeks now. I wouldn't be surprised if the metrics back up that we've been playing significantly better defense since December or so, just around the time that Igor was called up, coincidentally.

Don't get me wrong: I agree Igor is playing great and is our goalie of the future. But I think his numbers and W-L don't look as good if he was playing 2 months earlier for us.

 

[mas0764]

Perfect storm. Career high is 53 pts and 6 pts in his last 20 PO games. He often disappears when we need him the most.

At least I think that he easily could have his best 5-6 years ahead of him. Think its far from a given that he will tackle off the much physically. Someone like Blake Wheeler only seem to be getting better every year.

Thing is, I don't think we have the cap space to keep him.

Also, if Kreider remains a 50 point player, he's probably no better than our 4th best wing and quite possibly less than that in the near future.

Panarin, Kakko, Kravtsov, possibly Chytil, and possibly whoever our first round pick is this year, all have a great shot at surpassing him on the wing, somewhere between "already," "very soon" or "in not too long, certainly way before the extension is up."

If you extend Kreider for 7 years, you are gonna end up with a third line winger being paid those top dollars by the middle of that deal at the latest, most likely. And not only because Kreider will decline. He very well may keep his value. We are just going to have better players than 50 point (or 45 point) Chris Kreider.

 

[Kovalev27]

Shesterkin has been great but I feel like this team has been ticking upwards for a few weeks now. I wouldn't be surprised if the metrics back up that we've been playing significantly better defense since December or so, just around the time that Igor was called up, coincidentally.

Don't get me wrong: I agree Igor is playing great and is our goalie of the future. But I think his numbers and W-L don't look as good if he was playing 2 months earlier for us.

The metrics have been trending upwards unfortunately the goaltending outside of Shesterkin has been in the toilet. The metrics show that as well. Hank and Georgiev while propping us up the first 30 games or so really fell off afterwards

 

[mas0764]

I have a thought:

Why don’t we tie Smith to Georgiev for the purpose of creating cap space.

Detroit : bag of pucks

NYR : Smith + Georgiev

Then we will have the cap space to retain Kreider along with our RFAs.

Thoughts?

Because simply clearing cap space for next year does not make signing Kreider a good idea. The factors go way beyond that. Clearing the cap space is merely the first requirement.

I've said previously, I would be ok with it IF we could trade him first, and then he comes back in the offseason. That way we could acquire 2 more young cost-controlled quality assets, whose cheap salaries will be helping us in 2 years when Kreider's salary is starting to feel bloated. It helps offset the negative and then maybe with those two extra cheap pieces contributing in our top-9, it doesn't feel so bad paying Kreider $7m to play on the third line.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Shesterkin has been great but I feel like this team has been ticking upwards for a few weeks now. I wouldn't be surprised if the metrics back up that we've been playing significantly better defense since December or so, just around the time that Igor was called up, coincidentally.

Don't get me wrong: I agree Igor is playing great and is our goalie of the future. But I think his numbers and W-L don't look as good if he was playing 2 months earlier for us.

They have been. Their up tick has been directly tied to less minutes for Howden and Staal. Theres more to it than that, but thats a big part of it.

I'd like to see how things would look with no minutes for that duo.

 

[mas0764]

The metrics have been trending upwards unfortunately the goaltending outside of Shesterkin has been in the toilet. The metrics show that as well. Hank and Georgiev while propping us up the first 30 games or so really fell off afterwards

Interesting because I was gonna say, last I checked (and I'm not checking all the time), Hank and Georgiev were really playing quite well.

 

[Kovalev27]

Interesting because I was gonna say, last I checked (and I'm not checking all the time), Hank and Georgiev were really playing quite well.

If you get a chance look at the last 25 30 games or so and overall we’ve had one of the worst goaltending in the league.

It’s really why although we’ve been much much improved our record has been 500. Where as in the first 25 games or so we were awful and they propped us up.

 

[Ken1994]

This makes me think that JG and JD need to make their big move before the deadline. If they resign Kreider and don't trade Buch, Strome or DeAngelo they're likely going to have to sell one or more of these assets for less than they're worth during the summer because teams will know the Rangers are likely facing a cap crunch again. Or they'll need to go the buyout route again with Staal and/or Smith. The only other option is something happening with Hank.

If they're seriously considering resigning Kreider, then they need to really explore moving DeAngelo and/or Strome at the deadline.

I don't see why it will come to that. One of Lundquist or Georgiev will be gone, Fast might get sacrificed and Staal and Smith bought out. Depending on where the cap gets set, that could be enough to get us through next year before Shattenkirk's dead cap and Lundquist come off the books. If not, some more tinkering will be required, but it should not impact the core group.

 

[Blueshirts777]

Because simply clearing cap space for next year does not make signing Kreider a good idea. The factors go way beyond that. Clearing the cap space is merely the first requirement.

I've said previously, I would be ok with it IF we could trade him first, and then he comes back in the offseason. That way we could acquire 2 more young cost-controlled quality assets, whose cheap salaries will be helping us in 2 years when Kreider's salary is starting to feel bloated. It helps offset the negative and then maybe with those two extra cheap pieces contributing in our top-9, it doesn't feel so bad paying Kreider $7m to play on the third line.

If Gorton and Kreider's camp are progressing their talks, and the contract comes in at 5 x 7.25 then i'd rather do that then compete with every other team who's willing to throw 7 years at him. Not to mention, you're not getting 2 top-9 prospects back in a rental trade.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Also, if Kreider remains a 50 point player, he's probably no better than our 4th best wing and quite possibly less than that in the near future.

Panarin, Kakko, Kravtsov, possibly Chytil, and possibly whoever our first round pick is this year, all have a great shot at surpassing him on the wing, somewhere between "already," "very soon" or "in not too long, certainly way before the extension is up."

If you extend Kreider for 7 years, you are gonna end up with a third line winger being paid those top dollars by the middle of that deal at the latest, most likely. And not only because Kreider will decline. He very well may keep his value. We are just going to have better players than 50 point (or 45 point) Chris Kreider.

One thing you're missing in that is he's generating 45-50 pts while getting first line time. He slides to a 3rd line and gets his ice time drops 5+ minutes. What's his pts/game drop to?

 

[mas0764]

If you get a chance look at the last 25 30 games or so and overall we’ve had one of the worst goaltending in the league.

It’s really why although we’ve been much much improved our record has been 500. Where as in the first 25 games or so we were awful and they propped us up.

So then one might say we need to move Georgiev now before the book is out that he's not that good.

 

[mas0764]

One thing you're missing in that is he's generating 45-50 pts while getting first line time. He slides to a 3rd line and gets his ice time drops 5+ minutes. What's his pts/game drop to?

For sure, and I think that supports my argument.

 

[NYR Viper]

Question:

Would anyone trade:

Kreider + $3m in cap space for 1st '20 + Frederic + Heinen + Gaudreau @ $10m cap hit in 2 years when the team is more in their window for winning

Because that $7m in cap space allocated to Kreider could be allotted to someone like Gaudreau when he reaches UFA.

 

[Gardner McKay]

They have been. Their up tick has been directly tied to less minutes for Howden and Staal. Theres more to it than that, but thats a big part of it.

I'd like to see how things would look with no minutes for that duo.

I wonder if maybe we see Howden shipped out. I know Quinn loves him though.

 

[Lion Hound]

Question:

Would anyone trade:

Kreider + $3m in cap space for 1st '20 + Frederic + Heinen + Gaudreau @ $10m cap hit in 2 years when the team is more in their window for winning

Because that $7m in cap space allocated to Kreider could be allotted to someone like Gaudreau when he reaches UFA.

Frederic and Heinen are nice peices.

Gaudreau @10 mil scares me. He's fantastic during the season. Creative, fun to watch. Adds a real nice player. Would give the Rangers two legitimate offensive threats on the Left wall. Here's what concerns me.

PLAYOFFS

4

0

2

2

-4

0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

PLAYOFFS

5

0

1

1

-2

2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[mas0764]

I wanted Zucc traded 3 years ago. I want Kreider signed so no it’s not the same group. It’s two totally different situations.

I think the group probably has a lot of holdovers even if you aren't one.

 

[mas0764]

Fox has 2 more years left on his elc. Tony is most likely going to sign a bridge deal like every other young stud dman is doing right now.

You shouldn’t be entertaining trading him until that time. In the meantime enjoy having 3 absolute studs on your right side and go win some hockey games.

trading tony should not be discussed whatsoever. That should have zero to do with Kreider.

guys you look at to make room Strome Staal Skjei Buchnevich all replaceable.

It should only be discussed if you are getting blown away with an offer. I mean, I'd move Kakko if someone is gonna give me McKinnon or something.

 

[mas0764]

Then tell me, what is one of the top offensive defensemen in the NHL worth?

Top-5 in the NHL scoring winger at 24 years old.... surely merits in return a similarly aged (22-25) say.... top 25 or top 30 scoring forward.

Yet the names in that range would be perceived to be "off the table." Well, then so is TDA.

 

[Off Sides]

Question:

Would anyone trade:

Kreider + $3m in cap space for 1st '20 + Frederic + Heinen + Gaudreau @ $10m cap hit in 2 years when the team is more in their window for winning

Because that $7m in cap space allocated to Kreider could be allotted to someone like Gaudreau when he reaches UFA.

Forsberg, Point, Nurse, Jones, Barkov, Hertl, Lindholm, Trocheck, Rielly, Zibanejad are all currently slated to maybe become UFAs that summer too.

 

[mas0764]

If Gorton and Kreider's camp are progressing their talks, and the contract comes in at 5 x 7.25 then i'd rather do that then compete with every other team who's willing to throw 7 years at him. Not to mention, you're not getting 2 top-9 prospects back in a rental trade.

You are getting a top-9 or even top-6 prospect and a first back for Kreider. The first, given that we've been drafting well, is very likely another top-9 component on a cost-controlled contract (when it's signed).

 

[mas0764]

Question:

Would anyone trade:

Kreider + $3m in cap space for 1st '20 + Frederic + Heinen + Gaudreau @ $10m cap hit in 2 years when the team is more in their window for winning

Because that $7m in cap space allocated to Kreider could be allotted to someone like Gaudreau when he reaches UFA.

Yes, absolutely.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Also, if Kreider remains a 50 point player, he's probably no better than our 4th best wing and quite possibly less than that in the near future.

Panarin, Kakko, Kravtsov, possibly Chytil, and possibly whoever our first round pick is this year, all have a great shot at surpassing him on the wing, somewhere between "already," "very soon" or "in not too long, certainly way before the extension is up."

If you extend Kreider for 7 years, you are gonna end up with a third line winger being paid those top dollars by the middle of that deal at the latest, most likely. And not only because Kreider will decline. He very well may keep his value. We are just going to have better players than 50 point (or 45 point) Chris Kreider.

What is this nonsense? Chytil is a center, Kakko is a RW, Kravtsov has yet to show he can consistently score in the AHL and you have him replacing Kreider's production? And an unknown kid at an unknown position in the the 20 draft falls into the "already" "very soon" or "in not too long???" I get being optimistic about prospects, but this is wildly and unrealistically optimistic.

 

[Kovalev27]

So then one might say we need to move Georgiev now before the book is out that he's not that good.

to say he’s been a little Inconsistent would be an understatement. If we were going to trade him we probably missed the sell high window