Ron Francis

[Irie]

Yes - Most team bust on picks, but within that world some get it right more and some don't. Most baseball players make an out about 70% of the time, but some are hitting .325 and some are hitting .250 - And that's a big difference.

You want to go nuanced on Francis' picks, let's do it:


2014
Took Haydn Fleury 7th overall. Next few picks were Nylander, Ehlers, Ritchie, Fiala...All would've been better picks, but I guess he reunited with Fleury now.

2015
Took Noah Hanafin 5th overall. Good pick although again some superior players went just after (Provorov, Werenski, Meier, Rantanen). Problem was Francis goes and trades Hanafin and 25 goal scorer Lindholm for Hamilton (good player), Ferland, and Adam Fox (who he had no chance of signing and flipped to the rangers for 2 picks that became nothing). Basically Francis lost value for the Hurricanes as opposed if he just stood pat.

2016
Took Jake Bean 13th overall. Thought so much of him that he just passed on him in the expansion draft. Next pick was Charlie McAvoy.

2017
Took Martin Necas 12th overall. Solid pick. Time will tell if Suzuki or Brannstrom who went just after will turn out to be better.

2018
Didn't keep his job until this draft, but thanks to how Francis ran the team the Hurricanes were able to draft Svechnikov #2 overall.



Now that we're done dissecting Francis' draft history, what are your thoughts that the Hurricanes never made the playoffs under his watch, and the fact that the head coach he hired was using racial slurs against his players right under his nose?

What's more bottom line than a team's record under a GM and the culture he creates while there. If you want to argue anything else but that both those things were a failure while he was GM of the Hurricanes then there's nothing left to say about your perspective on him.

DRAFTING
And did you look at the players that went directly before his picks? Dal Colle and Virtanen, Logan Brown and Macleod, Tippett and Vilardi.

Drafting kids is a crapshoot at best. Only 37% of first round picks become regular NHL players, and only 17% of 2nd round picks become regular NHLers. Francis hit at 100% (1st round) and 80%(second round). Even his success at 33% in the 3rd round is way above the league average which comes in between 13-14%.

His drafting is solid and far from poor, like you are implying with the ridiculous statement "busted on a majority of picks". That is just misleading and a flat out dishonest attempt to create a false narrative. You should be ashamed.

TEAM RECORD

Francis inherited an 83 point Hurricanes squad that was filled with young guys that were very green and a bunch of aging vets, all of whom had prettty serious injury histories or in serious decline.

The owner wanted him to win, not rebuild. He retooled the team, but without having any stars, they wallowed in mediocrity. It is extremely hard to retool a team that has no superstar talent. He was only there 4 years, and they had slight improvements for the first three seasons, and then a slight decline in season 4.

Retooling a roster with a new coach, new system, when none of your draft picks have even arrived yet, and still clueless people put all the accomplishments and failures squarely on the new GM's shoulders? If he had torn it down to do a proper rebuild, and they had been basement dwellers for 4 years and saw zero improvements, then I think you could lay blame on him, but not under those circumstances. What was asked of him is almost impossible given what he started with.

PETERS

The organization vetted Peters thoroughly, and no mention of the incident was uncovered (The incident occurred years earlier in the AHL and not during Peter's time in Carolina). No one reported it then, and there was no record of it anywhere until it came out in 2019. Are you implying Francis knew all about the Peter's incident when he hired him? That is a serious accusation, and one I have not ever read any proof to support.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Necas and Aho were massive home runs. Kuokkanen had 25 points in 50 games this year, drafted by Carolina in 2016.

Bean has only played 44 games, still plenty of time. Geekie I see some potential there, Foegele needs more minutes and should be good and Pesce is a top4 Dman with Carolina.

 

[Frozen]

After some thinking and going through what Francis has said over the past days and weeks leading into this, here's what hit me.

The lack of deals and trades first surprised me. Some of the expansion draft picks surprised me. I wouldn't be surprised anymore if there are no moves or deals coming out around the entry draft either.

Here's why. Francis clearly stated he is weaponizing the salary cap space. Seeing his actions and moves now, or the lack of those, I think no one really understood how serious he was about that.

The Kraken has a great amount of room in the salary cap. The other GMs didn't want to bite on Francis' deals for the entry draft, finding it too expensive for side deals. They exposed many expensive contracts, but Francis didn't want to bite on those without extra deals, which would have effectively eaten away from what he sees as the most valuable asset the team has, cap space. This could also explain why he drafted some of those mind-boggling picks instead of seemingly better choices as players or instantly tradable assets - they are confident they can make it work good enough while waiting on the long game.

What is even more valuable than cap space? Cap space in the future. It will especially just build value until the salary cap starts rising again.

Francis knows that sooner or later teams will be in ever-growing trouble with their salary situations. He may indeed have overpriced himself out of the deals at this moment, but when the situation grows more dire for some teams and there are no alternatives, he might be able to squeeze some great deals out of there and make no friends while doing so. Whether that possible moment comes closer to the season start or even beyond, next season or further, is impossible to say.

If Francis is playing this long game with full commitment and doesn't back out, it might be doable later to get sweet deals in exchange for saving other teams out of cap hell.

Is he really up for that long of a marathon game and does he have support for it? Francis is receiving a lot of doubt and flack right now from some directions and fans, from which ultimately seems like a weak expansion draft result and with no side deals in it. If he can survive through that and score some bigger jackpots later, many things will be forgiven and he ends up looking like a genius.

Or maybe I just overanalyzed this in hopes to understand what's going on and there's no long play going on. Either way, our defense is decent. Offense can play tough and a defensive game. Goalies might handle it all right under those. If someone rises up and starts scoring goals or we get 1-2 to help with the offense, we might not need much more in the short run and save more for later. Hakstol is the weird piece in this puzzle - is he really able to push this roster material to the limit and make them work as a united machine with single purpose? We will see, but the longer it goes without deals or moves, the more I think it's a long game.

 

[theimmortal1]

Why would they have offered more? Chances are that they offered the same deal and Francis turned them down. I'm sure Fletcher made multiple phone calls and settled on the best offer.

I'd been cool with just selecting someone useful from the Flyers, even if the salary was a tad bit high. JVR was my choice because he's cheaper and has one less year than Voracek. I think that makes more sense than eating $4.5M x 2yr contract for a guy that doesn't fit into Hakstol's low event system. I'm guessing Hakstol didn't want anyone he's coached before, because they didn't select Stecher either.

They would have offered them more because Seattle had an ED selection. Making Ghost the ED selection is worth something.

 

[Jdodd]

After some thinking and going through what Francis has said over the past days and weeks leading into this, here's what hit me.

The lack of deals and trades first surprised me. Some of the expansion draft picks surprised me. I wouldn't be surprised anymore if there are no moves or deals coming out around the entry draft either.

Here's why. Francis clearly stated he is weaponizing the salary cap space. Seeing his actions and moves now, or the lack of those, I think no one really understood how serious he was about that.

The Kraken has a great amount of room in the salary cap. The other GMs didn't want to bite on Francis' deals for the entry draft, finding it too expensive for side deals. They exposed many expensive contracts, but Francis didn't want to bite on those without extra deals, which would have effectively eaten away from what he sees as the most valuable asset the team has, cap space. This could also explain why he drafted some of those mind-boggling picks instead of seemingly better choices as players or instantly tradable assets - they are confident they can make it work good enough while waiting on the long game.

What is even more valuable than cap space? Cap space in the future. It will especially just build value until the salary cap starts rising again.

Francis knows that sooner or later teams will be in ever-growing trouble with their salary situations. He may indeed have overpriced himself out of the deals at this moment, but when the situation grows more dire for some teams and there are no alternatives, he might be able to squeeze some great deals out of there and make no friends while doing so. Whether that possible moment comes closer to the season start or even beyond, next season or further, is impossible to say.

If Francis is playing this long game with full commitment and doesn't back out, it might be doable later to get sweet deals in exchange for saving other teams out of cap hell.

Is he really up for that long of a marathon game and does he have support for it? Francis is receiving a lot of doubt and flack right now from some directions and fans, from which ultimately seems like a weak expansion draft result and with no side deals in it. If he can survive through that and score some bigger jackpots later, many things will be forgiven and he ends up looking like a genius.

Or maybe I just overanalyzed this in hopes to understand what's going on and there's no long play going on. Either way, our defense is decent. Offense can play tough and a defensive game. Goalies might handle it all right under those. If someone rises up and starts scoring goals or we get 1-2 to help with the offense, we might not need much more in the short run and save more for later. Hakstol is the weird piece in this puzzle - is he really able to push this roster material to the limit and make them work as a united machine with single purpose? We will see, but the longer it goes without deals or moves, the more I think it's a long game.

This is well stated....It may work it may not....now w/hopefully Covid behind us... who knows what the CAP will be in a year or two.. It will be interesting to see how the long game plays out, but I think he missed out on a lot of draft capital for this draft and next years...he may make some of it back, but man IMO i think he botched this expansion draft at this point.. Like most people I am giving him a grade of a D or a D-... He may end up looking like a genius and I may eat my words, but in some ways the expansion draft was the initial and main opportunity to grow your team in many ways... by not making any deals he missed his best opportunity IMO.

 

[kihei]

This is well stated....It may work it may not....now w/hopefully Covid behind us... who knows what the CAP will be in a year or two.. It will be interesting to see how the long game plays out, but I think he missed out on a lot of draft capital for this draft and next years...he may make some of it back, but man IMO i think he botched this expansion draft at this point.. Like most people I am giving him a grade of a D or a D-... He may end up looking like a genius and I may eat my words, but in some ways the expansion draft was the initial and main opportunity to grow your team in many ways... by not making any deals he missed his best opportunity IMO.

The Gostisbehere deal that Arizona got is a pretty good example of Francis' shortcomings and how they have already possibly compromised the early stages of the development of the franchise. So it is a D- from me--there were more assets to be had while protecting all that cap space. Francis could have walked and chewed gum at the same time, but he didn't. He simply didn't take advantaage of his hand. That being said, it is what it is. The players certainly deserve our support and perhaps Francis will reveal himself to be a better franchise builder than he looks right now. Also glad how largely rational this discussion has been on this thread--let's see how well we collectively keep our cool in the months ahead.

 

[8999]

Don't think it's fair to compare with VGK since GMRF cannot help that other GMs are not sending out a Reilly Smith AND a Jonathan Marchessault or giving away assets to take MA Fleury this time around. A hidden gem like William Karlsson may not always exist and even if there is one, we don't know who that is right now.

Maybe GMRF was asking too much in 'side deals' but it doesn't mean he should have been willing to go along with lower prices just to get more deals done.

Not surprised by the criticism of GMRF by fans of other teams because he didn't do more exciting things or in some cases, take a big salary off their team's hands but I think Kraken fans should be happy overall. He took some names that were solid and considered decent values (Gourde, Eberle, Larsson, etc.) or cheap and low-risk and passed on ones that were potentially overpriced and frankly, probably would have brought just as much criticism, if not ridicule.

Unless you're seriously expecting a Cup run in Year 1, the next best thing to a championship roster probably is cap space and flexibility. Personally, I'm glad he didn't do anything reckless... he can always go out and spend like a maniac later but you can't easily undo bad purchases.

 

[The Marquis]

Ghosts contract sucks a lot more than taking some off the board kid from Philly. I’d have rather had them take Voracek or JVR, but at 7-8m, I understand why they didn’t. Ghost though? No. Philly got nothing for him. To me, that’s an example of a smart move they made.

All of the “bad” picks they made involve guys that make almost nothing, as such are by nature not bad picks. Carolina is interesting though, but here’s the thing. The Seattle D doesn’t need Bean as it is and Geekie is a very promising forward. Not taking Niederreiter is about money. Geekie could end up that good too, so why not take the guy? I don’t think we missed out on any actual potential without getting some in a different position.

Chicago really had nothing and we all know it, same for LA. Those picks meant nothing. Columbus is a riskless pick. Taking Domi would have been a risk for multiple reasons.
To;

 

[Gniwder]

They would have offered them more because Seattle had an ED selection. Making Ghost the ED selection is worth something.

Only if they were doing it to protect a player but they really didn't have anyone worth protecting. Their exposed players (JVR/Voracek) are overpaid.

The net result is they lost Twarynski, they not going to give up additional assets for that. Makes absolutely no difference to Philly if Ghost leaves through ED or trade.

 

[forecheck]

Evaluation to Date:

Hakstol - FAIL
Expansion Draft - Fail

* How about you pick up the best assets and go from there .. Example - Carey Price available - Pick him up - Eat some salary and trade him for lots if your dont want him ... Not sure what Francis is doing ???

 

[Riverfront]

there was one elite player available exposed :
Carey price but don't you think the question was asked " do you want to be a kraken or stay in Montreal " directly to price or via his agent
if he wanted to be a kraken FRANCIS would have selected him. So when starting a team from scratch you want players first and foremost
who want to be there.

 

[Gniwder]

there was one elite player available exposed :
Carey price but don't you think the question was asked " do you want to be a kraken or stay in Montreal " directly to price or via his agent
if he wanted to be a kraken FRANCIS would have selected him. So when starting a team from scratch you want players first and foremost
who want to be there.

Price is from Vancouver and waived his NMC for the ED. I'm not sure he was begging to be picked, but he surely didn't object if he waived his NMC. That contract is ugly though at his age.

Tarasenko might not be "elite" but he's a damn good player. I think he's the big missed opportunity. If he recovers from his shoulder issues Francis is gonna look like an idiot.

 

[Gniwder]

What is even more valuable than cap space? Cap space in the future. It will especially just build value until the salary cap starts rising again.

Cap space is overrated. Detroit had plenty of unused cap space last season and they'll be at the floor after signing all their RFAs.

Gaining second round picks for cap dumps like Marc Staal or Ghost doesn't make a team a contender, unless Francis manages to hit Aho homeruns with every second rounder.

We'll see what he does with all this cap space, he's gotta spend $10M to get to the floor before the beginning of the season.

Edit: Meanwhile Arizona just picked up VAN's first for another cap dump trade...

 

[theimmortal1]

Only if they were doing it to protect a player but they really didn't have anyone worth protecting. Their exposed players (JVR/Voracek) are overpaid.

The net result is they lost Twarynski, they not going to give up additional assets for that. Makes absolutely no difference to Philly if Ghost leaves through ED or trade.

Even if they weren't going to give anything extra, Francis could have gotten Twarynski, Ghost, a 2nd, and a 7th. The only way Francis comes out ahead is if he uses all of the cap space in a more efficient way. That is almost certainly not going to happen. Most likely you won't spend to the cap.

 

[Gniwder]

Even if they weren't going to give anything extra, Francis could have gotten Twarynski, Ghost, a 2nd, and a 7th. The only way Francis comes out ahead is if he uses all of the cap space in a more efficient way. That is almost certainly not going to happen. Most likely you won't spend to the cap.

All I was saying is that he wasn't going to get any more than what Arizona got.

From what I see, it doesn't look like Hakstol wanted any players that he's coached before. I would've taken JVR instead of trying to get picks.

I don't see the team spending the cap either. Very disappointing.

 

[sigma six]

Tarasenko might not be "elite" but he's a damn good player. I think he's the big missed opportunity. If he recovers from his shoulder issues Francis is gonna look like an idiot.

Plus the Philly rumor. In addition to what Seattle could have recieved for taking on Ghost, just think what they'd give up for Tarasenko as generous as Fletcher has been.
Too late now, though. He already gave everything to Buffalo in that terrible trade for Risto.

 

[kihei]

Bean gets a 2nd. Yesterday, Ghost would have landed a 2nd and 7th. Just sayin'.

 

[Ciao]

Arizona ate his lunch.

He should have been in in those deals. Both of them.

I'm astounded by his picks from Philadelphia and especially Columbus. I fully expected there were side deals leading to this two picks, but apparently not. Horrible choices.

Passing on Tank in favour of Dunn, I understand -- but it is definitely not clear-cut.

He's lost the benefit of the doubt with his other poor choices and his inability to work the market.

If I were the owner, I might throw him overboard now.

 

[TheeNorthStar]

K... he can be fired now.

 

[jbron]

Ryker Evans at #35 is a major read flag for Francis and company. There were some questionable decisions with the expansion draft and now a total shock with this high pick in the second round. Off the chart pick who is an overaged prospect that could have been picked way later. Sure looks like RF is operating with blinders on has left some major assets on the table over the last 5 days. Confusing to say the least.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Ryker Evans at #35 is a major read flag for Francis and company. There were some questionable decisions with the expansion draft and now a total shock with this high pick in the second round. Off the chart pick who is an overaged prospect that could have been picked way later. Sure looks like RF is operating with blinders on has left some major assets on the table over the last 5 days. Confusing to say the least.

Definitely a reach based on names available BUT I have learnt to be patient with the picks simply because they are kids, 18/19 years old. The advanced stats on the kid are definitely solid which is probably what influenced the decision.

 

[The Marquis]

I guess in a few years this Evans pick will be interesting to look back on. Oh the hyperbole.

 

[StarterHart]

I have been pretty critical of Ron in recent weeks because of the head coaching hire and the expansion draft, but this is kind of ridiculous. The amateur draft is something of a crap shoot after pick 15-20 or so, and that's during normal years. This year is even more of a crap shoot due to lack of full seasons and lack of live scouting. If there's a guy you really like you take him, and I promise you that teams don't care in the slightest if a player is "off the board" according to media lists or external scouting sites. If going off the board is a red flag, then every single gm in the entire league has several.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I have been pretty critical of Ron in recent weeks because of the head coaching hire and the expansion draft, but this is kind of ridiculous. The amateur draft is something of a crap shoot after pick 15-20 or so, and that's during normal years. This year is even more of a crap shoot due to lack of full seasons and lack of live scouting. If there's a guy you really like you take him, and I promise you that teams don't care in the slightest if a player is "off the board" according to media lists or external scouting sites. If going off the board is a red flag, then every single gm in the entire league has several.

Yep. It is a good idea to have limited expectations from this draft. Right from the start it was not supposed to have a lot of high-end talent. We got lucky enough to draft #2 overall and get Beniers but after that it was always going to be luck involved. The use of advanced stats helps eliminate some of the luck but it is easy to forget that these kids are just 18/19 years old. They have a lot of development left.

 

[LosVikingsDeChicago]

The initial launch of the franchise has been less than stellar. Of course GMs aren't going to bend over backwards like they did for Vegas. So guess what you soften your demands and take what you can get.

What assets do they have other than cap space? Buffalo, Detroit and New Jersey all have more cap space than Seattle. Arizona has already outmaneuvered Seattle because the Kraken were too obstinate.
You're telling me Francis is going to outwit Steve Yzerman in terms of utilizing his cap space. If you don't have any player assets, at least have draft capital which Seattle only has a measly 4th rounder for Pitlick.