Speculation: *Rifai vs. Liljegren. Rifai Clears. Liljegren healthy scratch.

[Roo]

Those two would be my #7 and 8 dmen.

Who are 5 & 6? Timmins has looked good too

 

[TMLAM34]

Who are 5 & 6? Timmins has looked good too

My only issue with Timmins is that he can’t stay healthy.

Rielly - Tanev
Benoit - McCabe
OEL - Hakanpaa
Rafai - Myers

Would be my group if everyone was healthy. I’d look at moving Liljegren in a deal for a center like Frost or Hayton.

 

[Roo]

I could certainly be wrong, but I doubt they would move Liljegren off for journeymen AHLers. Esp based on preseason performance.

Definitely the most intriguing part of camp.

 

[TMLAM34]

Wild side note - if you were to free up Liljegren’s salary, it’s almost dead even with Hakanpaa’s, Rafai’s AND Myers’ salary combined…

 

[thusk]

The zone starts is so misleading... you can use it as a coach not trusting him, but he starts 1 more shift out of 10 in the offensive zone than our defensive pairing.

Zone starts is overrated because 70% of the starts are on the fly.

Benoit started once every 20 shift in offensive start and 1 every 5 shift in defensive start.

Yes most of the time player start on the fly but when they started in defensive... The chance to play the next 20-30-45-60 second in your territory are pretty high and he did it most of the time against top opponent weapon.

Unstead of playing exemple
36,7 % of time in offensive end
36,7% in neutral zone
36,7% in defensive zone

Just the fact to start as much in defensive end is enough to result exemple

27% in offensive end
37 in neutral zone
47% in defensive zone

So yes at the end that's making a pretty huge difference on stats even if 65% of starts come on the rush

 

[notbias]

Benoit started once every 20 shift in offensive faceoff and 1 every 5 shift in defensive faceoff.

Yes most of the time player start on the fly but when they started in defensive... The chance to play the next 20-30-45-60 second in your territory are pretty high and he did it most of the time against top opponent weapon.

Unstead of playing exemple
36,7 % of time in offensive end
36,7% in neutral zone
36,7% in defensive zone

Just the fact to start as much in defensive end will result exemple

27% in offensive end
37 in neutral zone
47% in defensive zone

So yes at the end that's making a pretty huge difference on stats even if 65% of starts come on the rush

For every 10 shift Benoit started one more than Liljegren in the defensive zone... that's the difference.

 

[thusk]

For every 10 shift Benoit started one more than Liljegren in the defensive zone... that's the difference.

liljegren started once every 5 shift in the offensive end and once every 10 shift in defensive end...

Liljegren started 4X more in the offensive end and 2X less in defensive end

 

[Its not your fault]

luligren is signed 3m or someting crazy like that Tre overpayment sttyle

Believe it or not Marshall Rifai cap hit is 1.5 so you get the same amount of relief sending either one down.

 

[Martin Skoula]

liljegren started once every 5 shift in the offensive end and once every 10 shift in defensive end...

Liljegren started 4X more in the offensive end and 2X less in defensive end

4x a small number is irrelevant if the majority are neutral starts. Zone starts aren’t that useful unless you cancel out sequential starts. If you take a D zone start and ice the puck 3 times, you get 4 D zone starts but it’s not because the coach trusts you for being elite defensively, it’s because you suck at clearing the zone and aren’t allowed changing until you do. Likewise if you take an O zone start, support the cycle and get a frozen shot on net, and stay on for another offensive zone start - you’re not getting sheltered you’re just doing your job in the o zone correctly.

The perfect defensive player would get 1 defensive zone faceoff and follow it up with 3 offensive zone faceoffs and one at center ice.

 

[jaric1862]

If we trade Liljergren we are awfully thin on Defence. Don’t see it.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Benoit and Hakanpaa are both lousy puck movers, if Rifai replaces someone it is likely one of those two.

I don't understand some of the moves we made, we have so many repetitive positions or barely upgraded at positions, it feels like moves were made to make moves, not because it improved the team.

They probably could have used some of that wasted cap on depth to upgrade some other spots.

Benoit is better than Rifai in most of the defensive intangibles. Haakinpaa might never play again.

 

[tokyoite]

I would be surprise if timothy is traded before the opening day.

 

[RoadWarrior]

I would be surprise if timothy is traded before the opening day.

He only gets traded if they are desperate for cap space. Otherwise he’s ahead of Rifai who might actually clear waivers unlike Liljegren. I would say Connor Timmins is the actual competition for Lilly. Right now they are very close. Both bottom pairing guys at even strength but can work a second PP unit.

 

[thusk]

4x a small number is irrelevant if the majority are neutral starts. Zone starts aren’t that useful unless you cancel out sequential starts. If you take a D zone start and ice the puck 3 times, you get 4 D zone starts but it’s not because the coach trusts you for being elite defensively, it’s because you suck at clearing the zone and aren’t allowed changing until you do. Likewise if you take an O zone start, support the cycle and get a frozen shot on net, and stay on for another offensive zone start - you’re not getting sheltered you’re just doing your job in the o zone correctly.

The perfect defensive player would get 1 defensive zone faceoff and follow it up with 3 offensive zone faceoffs and one at center ice.

1-not the perfect defensive player... most of 2 way D would be close of 50/50... an unidimentionnal offensive dman will get more offensive start and shutdown D will start much more in defensive end (exemple it wqs the same story with Tanev last year in Dallas)

2- you're entierly missed the point... The fact they are starting more in defensive side or offensive side will affect stats of every D.

If you've got more start andplaying more in offensive , sure that will help to raise your offensive and defensive stats( because you don't need to defend when you've got the puck in the offensive end) the same if you're defending most of the time, that will affect your stats negatively on both side for the same exact reason.

and yes liljegren are better offensively but Benoit clearly better than Liljegren in the defensive side and both are not even close... but at the end that change absolutly nothing on this discussion

 

[TMLAM34]

He only gets traded if they are desperate for cap space. Otherwise he’s ahead of Rifai who might actually clear waivers unlike Liljegren. I would say Connor Timmins is the actual competition for Lilly. Right now they are very close. Both bottom pairing guys at even strength but can work a second PP unit.

Timmins IMO has outplayed Liljegren at the moment. My only concern with Timmins is his injury history, guy can’t stay healthy at all. Other than that, I’ve actually been impressed with Timmins “trying” to be a little more physical, something I thought we’d see and hear from Liljegren with Berube as the new head coach.

I’d be fine with trading Liljegren for a centerman like Frost or Hayton and rotating Timmins/Hakanpaa as the 6th. Rafai and Myers have also looked pretty good.

 

[Puckstuff]

6. Hakanpaa
7. Benoit
8. Rafai
9. Timmins
10. Myers
11. Nimela
12. Webber

The leafs have some nice depth on the Marlies in case of injury

 

[rumman]

I'm sorry you feel that way about your hf experience.

I don't spend my time crafting fictional trade scenarios to excite or outrage fans.

I read articles, I speak with fans who have been following the team since the 60's, I listen to all sorts of analysis, and most importantly I have perfect 20/20 vision.

Liljegren has 1 choice right now: he has to prove that he's a top 4 defenseman. If he can't keep fighting his way to that spot, then he's an overpaid bottom 6 defenseman.

On a team who's so close to cap, who's under pressure to win now, where every nickel counts; the focus will be on Lil.

Are there better options/cheaper options for the bottom 6? Many think there is.

What is Liljegren's contribution to Toronto? 0 goals and 1 assist in 13 playoff games? This is not good at all if you consider him to be someone known for his offensive play. Is he a defensive defenseman? I don't think he's good enough to call himself that.

Summer Trade Watch 2024 — The Fourth Period

Summer Trade Watch List 2024: The top players believed to be available for trade this summer.

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Trade him to LA before he gets the opportunity to prove he isn’t worth his new contract………

 

[rumman]

I'm just guessing, but with so little playing time, he is unlikely playing the tough assignments.

Lilly and Timmins are both defensive black holes, why not move Lilly if possible and go with a cheaper option whoever that turns out to be………

 

[Macallan18]

So what has Berube said about TImmins?

Nothing, but kept him on the big boys roster at training camp.

Lilly and Timmins are both defensive black holes, why not move Lilly if possible and go with a cheaper option whoever that turns out to be………

Can you back up the fact that Lilly and Timmins are black holes? Every analysis I’ve seen shows them with the best numbers on our defense?

 

[rumman]

Rifai has looked good, so has Myers.

Completely agree, too much weight is put on D that can move the puck, with the forwards being more defensively responsible I think Lilly and Timmins are expendable if a trade or two can be had……..

Nothing, but kept him on the big boys roster at training camp.


Can you back up the fact that Lilly and Timmins are black holes? Every analysis I’ve seen shows them with the best numbers on our defense?

I don’t put much weight in pie charts and graphs, my eyes tell me all I need to know, if given the chance Lilly will be this years Brodie imo. Book it………

 

[ULF_55]

Nothing, but kept him on the big boys roster at training camp.


Can you back up the fact that Lilly and Timmins are black holes? Every analysis I’ve seen shows them with the best numbers on our defense?

Almost sounds like Treliving doesn't have a clue.

All these great young defenders inhouse and he goes and signs poison pill contracts.

 

[Martin Skoula]

1-not the perfect defensive player... most of 2 way D would be close of 50/50... an unidimentionnal offensive dman will get more offensive start and shutdown D will start much more in defensive end (exemple it wqs the same story with Tanev last year in Dallas)

2- you're entierly missed the point... The fact they are starting more in defensive side or offensive side will affect stats of every D.

If you've got more start andplaying more in offensive , sure that will help to raise your offensive and defensive stats( because you don't need to defend when you've got the puck in the offensive end) the same if you're defending most of the time, that will affect your stats negatively on both side for the same exact reason.

and yes liljegren are better offensively but Benoit clearly better than Liljegren in the defensive side and both are not even close... but at the end that change absolutly nothing on this discussion

A good defensive player gets a D zone start, wins the puck back, moves it up ice, and gets 1 or more offensive zone starts hemming in the players he was tasked to shut down. A bad defensive player gets a D zone start and fails to win possession or clear the puck clean, when he ices it or allows a shot on goal he’s stuck for another D zone faceoff that isn’t happening because his coach trusts him.

I’m not arguing Liljegren is better on D but raw zone starts are a bad measure of who the coach trusts defensively, guys like Polak were used defensively but would end up with extreme zone start skews because of their own bad decisions forcing them to be on the ice for 4 or 5 D zone faceoffs in a row. The coach only intended for them to get the first one, the other 3 or 4 are off repeat icings. If this impacts your stats, that’s largely your own fault. Get better at clearing the puck and holding the offensive line.

 

[ULF_55]

A good defensive player gets a D zone start, wins the puck back, moves it up ice, and gets 1 or more offensive zone starts hemming in the players he was tasked to shut down. A bad defensive player gets a D zone start and fails to win possession or clear the puck clean, when he ices it or allows a shot on goal he’s stuck for another D zone faceoff that isn’t happening because his coach trusts him.

I’m not arguing Liljegren is better on D but raw zone starts are a bad measure of who the coach trusts defensively, guys like Polak were used defensively but would end up with extreme zone start skews because of their own bad decisions forcing them to be on the ice for 4 or 5 D zone faceoffs in a row. The coach only intended for them to get the first one, the other 3 or 4 are off repeat icings. If this impacts your stats, that’s largely your own fault. Get better at clearing the puck and holding the offensive line.

Let's be fair with Polak though, the game plan was red line to opposite blueline passes, as per the coaches strategy.

Funny though, I watched the same coach in Detroit and I'd see 2-3 d-zone passes before they moved the puck up ice. I suppose though, they were anchored by one of the top 3 defensemen off all time? Leafs haven't had a truly excellent defender since Salming.

Last night I thought they played well, but did think Liljegren took some time to get comfortable. By end of game it looked like they had 3 - 4 players you could use in the NHL on defense.

Rifai and Liljegren both played 4.5 minutes PK.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Let's be fair with Polak though, the game plan was red line to opposite blueline passes, as per the coaches strategy.

Funny though, I watched the same coach in Detroit and I'd see 2-3 d-zone passes before they moved the puck up ice. I suppose though, they were anchored by one of the top 3 defensemen off all time? Leafs haven't had a truly excellent defender since Salming.

Last night I thought they played well, but did think Liljegren took some time to get comfortable. By end of game it looked like they had 3 - 4 players you could use in the NHL on defense.

Rifai and Liljegren both played 4.5 minutes PK.

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My main point is that there’s guys like a prime Tanev where they’re actually getting put out in crushing zone starts against top competition so it’s fair to not expect top possession numbers from them, their job is to limit the bleeding and get off when they secure an O zone start. Then there’s guys who look like they have the same crushing zone starts against top competition on paper, but it’s not because the coach is putting them out there on purpose, it’s because they can’t exit the zone against their 3rd line matchups and by the 2nd icing the opposing coach is licking his chops at the opportunity to put out his top line against a tired #6D.

Even if Berube started Liljegren and Benoit in the exact same amount of on-purpose D zone starts, the ability of both units to win and transition the puck is going to determine whether they end that shift with 3O/1D or 0O/4D. Even beyond that just the difference of one of them getting a faceoff specialist on their shift and the other getting a winger filling in at C is going to probably determine where their next faceoff is more than their individual play or who the coach trusts to do what.

 

[Roo]

With one preseason game to go, my D would look like this on opening night:

Rielly - Tanev
OEL - McCabe
Benoit - Liljegren
Timmins
Hakanpaa (LTIR)

I'd send everyone else to the Marlies. I do like Rifai, and others like Myers have looked good too, but I do believe this is likely a classic example of vets trying to get ready for the season (unscathed) vs AHLers fighting to try to make the team. I think the team will prioritize RHD. I really don't see them moving Liljegren based on preseason performance.