Rielly

[Martin Skoula]

Muzzin/Brodie can be easily replaced. Rielly cannot. It's not even debatable. Factor in that we can probably get a decent package trading one of those two and it's a no brainer.

Rielly's been injured and played like shit for months after coming back, we know what we look like without him and it's not noticeably worse. The only problem with him leaving is that we're a Muzzin injury away from a Dermott-Sandin-??? LHD depth chart.

 

[Buds17]

Risto getting so much more than an hilariously superior Ellis kinda tells you more about value imo. Fact is, nhl gms still crave BIG TOUGH dmem like Risto and Jones and Nurse and overpay them consistently.

I don't think Rielly will have that trade value even though it's amazingly stupid.

By the same token - this is also the reason why we should be able to sign him for significantly less than guys like nurse and Jones too, even though he's better.

I don't know that I'd say Ristolainen returned more than Ellis in trade. The only known quantity in the Risto trade currently is Hagg and I think Myers is the better d-man. Patrick and Glass also have some NHL experience and were both drafted higher than 14th overall. Buffalo might have hit with that pick but we can't be confident of that just yet. IMO, a trade for an unsigned Rielly might potentially include a 1st round pick projected to be in playoff range and a player or prospect that's better/has more upside than Hagg.

 

[zeke]

I don't know that I'd say Ristolainen returned more than Ellis in trade. The only known quantity in the Risto trade currently is Hagg and I think Myers is the better d-man. Patrick and Glass also have some NHL experience and were both drafted higher than 14th overall. Buffalo might have hit with that pick but we can't be confident of that just yet. IMO, a trade for an unsigned Rielly might potentially include a 1st round pick projected to be in playoff range and a player or prospect that's better/has more upside than Hagg.

Yeah sounds fair.

I.e. the exact same package we would trade for an impact rental at the deadline.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Rielly's been injured and played like shit for months after coming back, we know what we look like without him and it's not noticeably worse. The only problem with him leaving is that we're a Muzzin injury away from a Dermott-Sandin-??? LHD depth chart.

It was noticeably worse without Rielly.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yeah sounds fair.

I.e. the exact same package we would trade for an impact rental at the deadline.

Seems odd that the Leafs would only get a little bit more for a full year of Rielly vs. A half year of Foligno with retention.

Rielly is significantly more valuable than Foligno even excluding the extra games. If we did not get 2 1sts and something else for one year of Rielly, we would have done poorly in that trade.

 

[Buds17]

Seems odd that the Leafs would only get a little bit more for a full year of Rielly vs. A half year of Foligno with retention.

Rielly is significantly more valuable than Foligno even excluding the extra games. If we did not get 2 1sts and something else for one year of Rielly, we would have done poorly in that trade.

Is there much of a history of a player in/approaching his walk year being traded for two 1sts (and even a +)? I could probably see a 1st plus an asset with that upside or a player that was already drafted in the 1st round + something else.

 

[Face Of Bear]

Rielly's been injured and played like shit for months after coming back, we know what we look like without him and it's not noticeably worse. The only problem with him leaving is that we're a Muzzin injury away from a Dermott-Sandin-??? LHD depth chart.

Muzzin and Brodie simply cannot be our best two D if we want to be competitive. They're both one bad year away from being cap dumps and at the age where that can happen at any time., while Rielly may very well still have his best hockey ahead of him. If we have to sacrifice one of Muzzin/Brodie to keep Rielly it's an easy choice to make

 

[All Mod Cons]

Leafs should 100% re-sign Morgan Rielly and I sincerely hope they do.

 

[zeke]

Seems odd that the Leafs would only get a little bit more for a full year of Rielly vs. A half year of Foligno with retention.

Rielly is significantly more valuable than Foligno even excluding the extra games. If we did not get 2 1sts and something else for one year of Rielly, we would have done poorly in that trade.

Foligno cost a late 1st in a draft that was both weak and impossible to scout. A later pick tossed in for cap reasons. You're probably overvaluing that price.

 

[mapleleaf979]

Reilly is not a PP1 dman or a #1 or #2 Dman and he should be he wants 7-9 million. Brodie and Muzzin are better all round defenders, why pay him more than both? He is not worth it. Dubas is smart to not re sign him but making a mistake not moving him. The Leafs imo will not miss Reilly. They need another Brodie or Muzzin, guys who are playoff dmen. Reilly is not a good defender, is soft and lacks a second fight or determination to win battles. The Leafs biggest weakness is defending leads, winning 2-1 games. They need a defensive defenseman, not Reilly. Yes id respect Dubas for moving Reilly for a lesser skating, better defending dman with no flash.

 

[Super Mega]

Where's diceman? Feels more and more like Rielly walks sadly

 

[A1LeafNation]

Is there much of a history of a player in/approaching his walk year being traded for two 1sts (and even a +)? I could probably see a 1st plus an asset with that upside or a player that was already drafted in the 1st round + something else.

McDonagh to Tampa

 

[Buds17]

McDonagh to Tampa

Fair enough. One of the 1sts in that trade was conditional on Tampa winning the Cup though. I assumed SeaOfBlue was alluding to two firsts outright. There were also other elements to that trade beyond McDonagh and the firsts.

 

[Legion34]

Any more word on this 6.5 x 8 contract?

 

[A1LeafNation]

Fair enough. One of the 1st
s in that trade was conditional on Tampa winning the Cup though. I assumed SeaOfBlue was alluding to two firsts outright. There were also other elements to that trade beyond McDonagh and the firsts.

True but this is the trade we should use as a comparison.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Any more word on this 6.5 x 8 contract?

Yeah -- it doesn't exist. Probably never did.

 

[Zonk]

Muzzin and Brodie simply cannot be our best two D if we want to be competitive. They're both one bad year away from being cap dumps and at the age where that can happen at any time., while Rielly may very well still have his best hockey ahead of him. If we have to sacrifice one of Muzzin/Brodie to keep Rielly it's an easy choice to make

Muzzin is 32.
Brodie is 31.
But somehow it is an "easy choice" to choose to sign Rielly until he is 36???

Math is hard, but it is not that hard.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Muzzin is 32.
Brodie is 31.
But somehow it is an "easy choice" to choose to sign Rielly until he is 36???

Math is hard, but it is not that hard.

Isn't it like Tavares where you sign him then worry about the bad years later? Can't imagine Tavares at 34/35 is gonna be too pretty.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Isn't it like Tavares where you sign him then worry about the bad years later? Can't imagine Tavares at 34/35 is gonna be too pretty.

Tavares' contract ends at 34. There's unlikely to be many, if any, "bad years". Tavares also hasn't relied on his skating throughout his career like Rielly.

 

[Havoc]

I'm curious if anyone can put up a valid case as to why it is in our best interest to give Rielly 8+ mil?

Once putting up 72 points, because you like the guy personally and because Nurse got 9 mil doesn't prove anything. What does Rielly provide today where he's worth that much? What upside does he have? His offensive game is already regressing and he was never elite defensively. He's not a PP threat and also not a PK threat. How do you counter these claims?

I expect nothing more than crickets or personal insults stating how stupid I am in response.

 

[Gabriel426]

I'm curious if anyone can put up a valid case as to why it is in our best interest to give Rielly 8+ mil?

Once putting up 72 points, because you like the guy personally and because Nurse got 9 mil doesn't prove anything. What does Rielly provide today where he's worth that much? What upside does he have? His offensive game is already regressing and he was never elite defensively. He's not a PP threat and also not a PK threat. How do you counter these claims?

I expect nothing more than crickets or personal insults stating how stupid I am in response.

I think it comes down to market value instead of real value of the player/s.
For example, Hyman is a good player but he is not worth 5.5mil but at least one team offered him that.
If Reilly and his agent believes there is at least one team that is going to offer 9mil, then his market value is 9mil. Personally after this past off season, I think there will be more than one team offering 9mil to Reilly if he hits UFA.

 

[keonsbitterness]

I'm curious if anyone can put up a valid case as to why it is in our best interest to give Rielly 8+ mil?

Once putting up 72 points, because you like the guy personally and because Nurse got 9 mil doesn't prove anything. What does Rielly provide today where he's worth that much? What upside does he have? His offensive game is already regressing and he was never elite defensively. He's not a PP threat and also not a PK threat. How do you counter these claims?

I expect nothing more than crickets or personal insults stating how stupid I am in response.

Doubt the Leafs are willing to pay him 8. I'm guessing 7.5 is their limit.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Is there much of a history of a player in/approaching his walk year being traded for two 1sts (and even a +)? I could probably see a 1st plus an asset with that upside or a player that was already drafted in the 1st round + something else.

Ristolainen literally just picked up a known mid-1st round pick and a 2nd round pick with the same amount of time left on his contract. Rielly is significantly better than Ristolainen, and the reason why Ristolainen would even come close to Rielly in value is because he is big, physical, and a RHD.

1 year of Faulk (plus a downgrade of a 5th to a 7th) picked up Bokk (a recent 25th overall pick) and a year of Joel Edmundson, who probably would have received more than a 2nd round pick if he was moved right away.

Karlsson, who is obviously better than Rielly, picked up Tierney, DeMelo, Norris, Balcers, a 1st, and a 2nd, plus some conditional picks based on team performance and whether he was moved to an Eastern Conference team. Could Rielly not get something like Balcers, Norris, a 1st and a conditional pick based on re-signing? I think that is reasonable for a #1 defenseman like Rielly.

If we are talking about later 1st round picks (i.e. picks that are likely not going to be in the lottery), I don't think 2 1st round picks is an unreasonable ask for a year of Rielly. Half a year of Rielly would easily get a 1st and something more, so not even doubling the price for the other half of the year seems appropriate. Or, going to Calgary and offering up Rielly + Engvall for Hanifin + picks.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'm curious if anyone can put up a valid case as to why it is in our best interest to give Rielly 8+ mil?

Once putting up 72 points, because you like the guy personally and because Nurse got 9 mil doesn't prove anything. What does Rielly provide today where he's worth that much? What upside does he have? His offensive game is already regressing and he was never elite defensively. He's not a PP threat and also not a PK threat. How do you counter these claims?

I expect nothing more than crickets or personal insults stating how stupid I am in response.

I would count the claim that he is not a PP threat with the fact that in the past two years, he is 33rd in the league in PP points... And that is a stretch which was highly unfavourable to Rielly in a variety of ways (injuries last year, an anemic Leafs PP this year where few players put up points, etc.) and being on a PP where the defenseman is likely never going to be the main focal point and the guy who racks up points. If we look at the two year stretch prior to 2019-2021, which were a lot more favourable to Rielly, he was 8th in the league in points. His underlying numbers (GF/60, xGF/60, CF/60, HDCF/60, etc.) are all in the top 10-15 the past 4 years... Because our PP is usually really good and he is a big part of that even when he is not on the scoresheet.

He absolutely is a PP threat, and one of the better ones in the league at that, when the Leafs use him properly and of course the entire PP isn't awful.

He is also not bad on the PK, but we already play him 24 minutes a night when we use him as our 5th PK defenseman and the 4 guys ahead of him are as good, or better, on the PK. No reason to make him play 25/26 minutes a night when he would not make a major difference on the PK and we can just use him in the spots where he would provide a lot more value.

 

[hamzarocks]

I'm curious if anyone can put up a valid case as to why it is in our best interest to give Rielly 8+ mil?

Once putting up 72 points, because you like the guy personally and because Nurse got 9 mil doesn't prove anything. What does Rielly provide today where he's worth that much? What upside does he have? His offensive game is already regressing and he was never elite defensively. He's not a PP threat and also not a PK threat. How do you counter these claims?

I expect nothing more than crickets or personal insults stating how stupid I am in response.

This is a bad post.

How is rielly not a PP impact? H was amongst the league leaders in pp assists for defenseman in 2018 and 2019, two years where he got full time on the top unit and wasn't injured

2020 he started strong before having an injury and being taken off of the top unit for Barrie.

2021 Rielly was still top 20 in PP points by a defenseman despite the disaster that was the leafs PP during the second half of the season with several things going wrong


Rielly is a very effective PP quarterback. He isn't an elite shooting threat that I'll give but his ability to move the puck on the PP is underrated. We saw Brodie try and do his role in some games and he attempted to play the role on unit 2, failing quite badly with his lack of passing ability hurting Nylander and JT on the second unit

Rielly has been part of the PK in the past and could play on the PK this year with Bogo gone. Brodie+Muzzin and Rielly + Holl are the likely PK units with dermott/sandin/lilijgrem getting some spit shifts in case the units struggle or are exahusted/overworked

Rielly shouldn't be making 9M but neither should Seth Jones, Darnell Nurse, Zach Weren't etc.

The market for top pairing (and in Riellys case #1D) has gotten way to high. The decision which needed/needs to be made is what price point is our max and if Rielly will accept an 8 year deal (with all the benefits of being in this market I.e, full singing bonuses, advertising opportunities continuing, NMC).

If he isn't willing to sign he should've been dealt when the market would bring back a large return. Now the longer we hold him and the longer dubas negotiates, finding that rielly won't budge on his price point, the lower value we'll bring back on return

Own rental is a dumb concept and one which should have been avoided for this year with the team not being as strong a contender as last season and a rielly offseason trading allowing for a retool season.

Losing Rielly (if we do) for nothing will be terrible management unless we win a couple of rounds with him being impactful.