Revisiting the Disastrous Kotkaniemi Offer Sheet By Carolina

Goptor

Registered User
Jun 30, 2016
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The offer sheet wasn't a disaster. Carolina's pro scouts targeted him and probably thought Montreal wasn't utilizing him properly. Took a risk. It didn't work out. Happens often in the NHL.

The extension was the disaster. Great example of sunk cost fallacy.
 

Craig Ludwig

Registered User
Jun 16, 2005
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Re: Window--I don't get the Canes have missed their time mantra.

Aho, Jarvis, Svetch, Necas, Drury, yes KK are all young/in their prime with great young assets on the cusp of joining.

Potential high level players in Nikishin, Morrow on D; Unger-Sorum (playing with NHLers at the World Championship right now), Nadeau and others on O along with a bunch of young players currently in Europe that will soon come over and play for Chicago.

Most fans believe Canes will be on a long/sustained run similar to Boston's.
Yeah, you are right that they do have a good nucleus. Good but not great, as they likely lose Guentzel, Pesce, Skjei, Teravainen with no way of replacing them because Jarvis, Necas and Drury's are RFA and their new contracts will suck up the rest of that cap space, if not more, and one may actually have to go. Burns and Staal are aging fast, and there's not much in nets come next year. Their peak time to win it all was this year and last, they were the odds on favorite this year. Their prospect cupboard is not great, Nikishin is a top prospect but the rest are good but not first D, first line potential. It's hard to argue that they were at their peak this year after years of building, and that they will not be as loaded come next year.
 

MoneyManny

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Jun 28, 2021
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Waddell has already said it. The twitter “group” wanted to have fun with it so he let them. You weren’t supposed to take it so seriously, but obviously they didn’t know who they were dealing with….

Yes obviously the Canes tried to underbid the cost of the offer sheet, maybe with prospects instead of the first rounder. The offer sheet was the option both sides knew was in the table, and the cost of that was clearly known. MB chose the offer sheet and the picks.

It’s just the arrogance of the fan base that gets me. That anyone cares so much to get you back. The concept is straight out of the 70’s that an owner would overpower his management team and force them to sign the guy to an offer sheet. No one would do that. No team would do that.

Texas billionaire who shouldn’t be in hockey? For a southern team? Of course that’s what happened!!
The fanbase arrogance here is all the Canes fans coming in harmony with every excuse/explanation possible as to why this wasn't a totally awful move from their team, and calling the Habs petty when all they do is call you out on your bs.

We all know the Canes are great at managing the cap, drafts well, makes great trades, amazing signings, have the best head coach and twitter account on the planet... Shit they're eliminated? How could it be??
 

paragon

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May 5, 2010
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Because you can't give RFA's lower wage than they had before. It's the 6mil / year or he walks.
This is the reason why they couldn't sign him for any lower. They had to qualify him at 6 million or he would have been free agent. Kotkaniemi and his agent made out like bandits.
 
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chaz4hockey

Old man but still a PP2 Candidate
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Jan 21, 2021
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Yeah, you are right that they do have a good nucleus. Good but not great, as they likely lose Guentzel, Pesce, Skjei, Teravainen with no way of replacing them because Jarvis, Necas and Drury's are RFA and their new contracts will suck up the rest of that cap space, if not more, and one may actually have to go. Burns and Staal are aging fast, and there's not much in nets come next year. Their peak time to win it all was this year and last, they were the odds on favorite this year. Their prospect cupboard is not great, Nikishin is a top prospect but the rest are good but not first D, first line potential. It's hard to argue that they were at their peak this year after years of building, and that they will not be as loaded come next year.
This was a key year but the point made earlier is that window is not necessarily closed long term but given their younger core they will be a consistently good team for years to come. I suspect they will be top contenders again within 1-3 years with a replenishment in d, o and goal keeping. FWIW: At just outside the top 10, their prospect ranking (I rate morrow and Nikishin as top paring guys) continues to be strong, and have their top picks for next 3 years. They had much of their prospect pool play overseas and probably didn’t catch your eye. Then again, most Habs fans don’t look at the Canes objectively.

Btw: they have enough cap space to sign a few of the names on your list.
 
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Theodore450

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Sep 10, 2013
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This is revisionist history. The fact is kk was well down the options list. We had already missed out on a few UFAs and trades. This move was 6 weeks into the offseason. Its not like the team was like screw signing guys, we are going to wait until week 6 to decide to offer sheet kk as a publicity stunt. Nope they went down the list, struck out, and tried to trade for kk. Canes weren’t moving Jarvis for kk. We had the cap space and decided to force the move then.

Canes weren’t making a big goalie trade.

It wasn’t a big blunder because the Canes always managed the cap well. Signing kk didn’t prevent us from getting anyone else via trade or FA.
Going for a goalie is revisionist history, but let’s not act like guys like Tarasenko where no available. It was a terrible move
 

bleedgreen

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Dec 8, 2003
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The fanbase arrogance here is all the Canes fans coming in harmony with every excuse/explanation possible as to why this wasn't a totally awful move from their team, and calling the Habs petty when all they do is call you out on your bs.

We all know the Canes are great at managing the cap, drafts well, makes great trades, amazing signings, have the best head coach and twitter account on the planet... Shit they're eliminated? How could it be??
Oh it’s been a nothing move. I was never impressed with it as I didn’t think KK had showed enough offense and didn’t think he was a great choice for 2C. It’s been a bad move.

“Revenge sheet”? Nah.

As for that last sentence, let us know next time you think you’ll make the playoffs.
 

Nikishin Go Boom

Russian Bulldozer Consultent
Jul 31, 2017
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The fanbase arrogance here is all the Canes fans coming in harmony with every excuse/explanation possible as to why this wasn't a totally awful move from their team, and calling the Habs petty when all they do is call you out on your bs.

We all know the Canes are great at managing the cap, drafts well, makes great trades, amazing signings, have the best head coach and twitter account on the planet... Shit they're eliminated? How could it be??
Ftfy
 

Bizz

Slacked for Mack
Oct 17, 2007
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San Jose
Kotakniemi's playoff stats: 10 GP 0 G 1 A and had 27 points in the regular season this year all for $4,8M cap hit. Provided basically 0 offense in the playoffs.

Carolina let Vincent Trocheck go and rolled with KK. Trocheck now has 14 points, with 8 against his former team and a few huge points in the clincher.

The move to offer sheet KK started a chain of events that might have closed the Canes' contention window shut, and it all started as a petty PR troll job. This may be one of the most franchise damaging offer sheets we have seen.

Discuss.

The Canes contention window was never opened. All I saw was an overhyped, overrated team being predictably dominated.
 
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WarriorofTime

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Jul 3, 2010
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What? You have no clue. His current contract is 4.8 a year. They never had to pay him 6+ moving forward.
They are saying that because they paid him 1 year/$6.1 million, the Qualifying Offer in the 2022 offseason had to be $6.1 million. Without offering that, he becomes an unrestricted free agent. In order to get him to sign a deal with lower AAV than the qualifying offer and avoid having to make a qualifying offer to retain him, they offered him an 8-year worth $38,560,000, or $4.82 million AAV. Essentially, they couldn't get him at $4.82 million for say 3 years because then he's better off just signing the qualifying offer or if not offered a qualifying offer, becoming an unrestricted free agent, so they were boxed into gambling on a long-term deal that they hoped he'd outperform.

The AAV is off, but the qualifying offer has to be a raise.


The qualifying offer is calculated from the players base salary (NHL salary minus signing bonus), and at minimum must meet the seasons minimum salary requirements:
  • 110% of the base salary if the base salary is less than or equal to $660,000
  • 105% of the base salary if the base salary is greater than $660,000 or less than $1,000,000. However, this qualifying offer cannot exceed $1,000,000.
  • 100% of the base salary if the base salary is equal to or greater than $1,000,000.
  • CBA Reference 10.2 (a)
 

elmaco

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Feb 1, 2017
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They are saying that because they paid him 1 year/$6.1 million, the Qualifying Offer in the 2022 offseason had to be $6.1 million. Without offering that, he becomes an unrestricted free agent. In order to get him to sign a deal with lower AAV than the qualifying offer and avoid having to make a qualifying offer to retain him, they offered him an 8-year worth $38,560,000, or $4.82 million AAV. Essentially, they couldn't get him at $4.82 million for say 3 years because then he's better off just signing the qualifying offer or if not offered a qualifying offer, becoming an unrestricted free agent, so they were boxed into gambling on a long-term deal that they hoped he'd outperform.




The qualifying offer is calculated from the players base salary (NHL salary minus signing bonus), and at minimum must meet the seasons minimum salary requirements:
  • 110% of the base salary if the base salary is less than or equal to $660,000
  • 105% of the base salary if the base salary is greater than $660,000 or less than $1,000,000. However, this qualifying offer cannot exceed $1,000,000.
  • 100% of the base salary if the base salary is equal to or greater than $1,000,000.
  • CBA Reference 10.2 (a)
Thanks for clarifying, i learned something new too.
 

Lempo

Recovering Future Considerations Truther
Feb 23, 2014
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They are saying that because they paid him 1 year/$6.1 million, the Qualifying Offer in the 2022 offseason had to be $6.1 million. Without offering that, he becomes an unrestricted free agent. In order to get him to sign a deal with lower AAV than the qualifying offer and avoid having to make a qualifying offer to retain him
I think KK was arbitration-eligible in summer 2022, so Canes could have taken him into team-elected salary arbitration without having to tender him the $6.1M QO. I think we agree KK would have gotten less than $6.1M there (it's anyone's guess if KK would have chosen one or two year contract).

This is obviously merely an academical point because it's pretty obvious that Canes and KK had an understanding when signing the offersheet that the offer sheet SPC would be followed up by a long extension. The decision to sign KK long-term was made when the offersheet was made.

(For those interested of QO shenanigans, make sure to follow the provided link for further info, because there was some changes to the QO rules in the latest MOTU to extend the CBA because of certain Timo Meier, and you can't anymore artificially drive your QO up (beyond 120 percent of the AAV) by back-loading the contract with an insane final year base salary.)

(You can do it by an offersheet though.)
 
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Lempo

Recovering Future Considerations Truther
Feb 23, 2014
27,735
86,737
In my headcanon, the Canes fell 20$ short of getting THE free agent that would have made them win it all. :naughty::laugh:
We paid it under the table to Jake Guentzel. Everyone involved will deny it obviously, as they should.
 

Doublechin

Registered User
Jun 23, 2013
3,251
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Gotta say

The Canes trolling of he Habs on social media back fired

The Coyotes trolling with the Cooley>Slaf post did too, matter fact, since that post Slaf was almost ppg

Dear NHL organizations, please tell your SM teams to keep trolling the Habs on twitter
 

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