Rebuild/Restructure and What does that look like?

[Gabe Kupari]

The team hasn't been good enough. This is not disaster, this is silver lining.

Ppl don't want to be here? Good. f*** them. Trade them and move on. Long past due.

 

[surixon]

Because 2 players or their agents have expressed the desire to leave the team.
That’s a huge red flag.
3 if you consider a Scheifele’s previous comments.

Then the end of season disconnect with the players regarding their coaches valid criticism.

Then the GM’s comments that everything is going well, just make the playoffs.

The icing on the cake is to run this back or heaven forbid extend 55.

The same thing is happening in Calgary right now and they just fired the "problem coach" and got a new GM. Players approaching UFA may want to leave for multiple reasons. Org management is only one thing and it seems most players have nothing but good things to say about how they are treated.

If that Athletic article is to be believed Dubois expanded his list of teams because he wants to do right for the org and for Winnipeg to get full value on a trade. Is this a player who is disenfranchised with an org?

I don't think there are many red flags here. I think some players approaching the end of their careers want a shot to win. Some just want a change of scenery and some just always had aspirations of playing in a different kind of market.


I don't think a new GM would have changed anyone's minds really just like we are seeing in Calgary.

Anyhow as much as I want new management Chevy did prove he could build a good team while trying to straddle two cores. Perhaps he can do it again.

 

[BoneDocUK]

Schmidt would make the most sense, but he might be a hard guy to move. 2 years left at $5.95M, with a 10-team NTC.

Anaheim really needs defensemen, but I don't know if he'd waive for them. He seems like such a good teammate, would be exactly what they need with a young group. Throw in Stanley as the sweetener.

Pionk would make sense going to Vancouver for one of their forwards with similar term & money (Boeser, Garland or Beauvillier). I think the minutes he played in the playoffs when Morrissey went down are the kind of thing GMs pay attention to.

Good point. Pionk definitely has some value as a pesky, big-minutes D who can put up points reliably when he's healthy, and you're right about him stepping it up when he had to. I've seen a few pundits noting that whatever's ailing him has been going on for 2 years -- which dovetails perfectly of course with the emergence of WTF!Pionk. Maybe.

I'd still rather move Schmidt on, but no one's taking him without a hefty premium going back the other way, and I can see the org not wanting to mess with the guy who waived to come to WPG, etc. His buyout:

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Jun. 15, 2023

$9,800,000

$0

2

4

31

2/3

$6,533,333

$3,266,667

$1,633,333

Cap Hit Calculations​

SEASON	INITIAL BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	SIGNING BONUS	BUYOUT COST	POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS	SAVINGS	CAP HIT ( WPG)
2023-24	$4,950,000	$5,950,000	$0	$1,633,333	$1,633,333	$3,316,667	$2,633,333
2024-25	$4,850,000	$5,950,000	$0	$1,633,333	$1,633,333	$3,216,667	$2,733,333
2025-26	$0	$0	$0	$1,633,333	$1,633,333	-$1,633,333	$1,633,333
2026-27	$0	$0	$0	$1,633,333	$1,633,333	-$1,633,333	$1,633,333
TOTAL	$9,800,000	$11,900,000	$0	$6,533,333	$6,533,333	$3,266,667	$8,633,332

 

[DRW204]

we shouldn't be in the market of attaching picks/prospects to trade away players. we are not desperate for cap-space. we should probably be recipient of those deals w/ ample cap space once/if all the trades that speculated on here happen.

however, this is not something the Jets have usually (or ever?) have done.

summary from the-athletic of recent cap dump trades:

 

[ps241]

we shouldn't be in the market of attaching picks/prospects to trade away players. we are not desperate for cap-space. we should probably be recipient of those deals w/ ample cap space once/if all the trades that speculated on here happen.

however, this is not something the Jets have usually (or ever?) have done.

summary from the-athletic of recent cap dump trades:
View attachment 719695

Nice post and food for thought. We will have to see what happens when the smoke clears after the trades (if they happen). I am not sure Mark would want to spend cash but there might be some contracts that were front loaded and its more about eating the cap hit vs paying the salary.

Any edge you can get in this market to add draft capital should be exploited.

 

[DRW204]

Nice post and food for thought. We will have to see what happens when the smoke clears after the trades (if they happen). I am not sure Mark would want to spend cash but there might be some contracts that were front loaded and its more about eating the cap hit vs paying the salary.

Any edge you can get in this market to add draft capital should be exploited.

agreed.

and supposed cap-dump players could bounce back and have a decent year. monhan had 17 pts/25 gp after 23/65 gp the year prior. re-signed for dirt cheap for a decent 3rd line option plus they got a 1st out of it. Gostisbhere in Arizona put up a 50 pt season after being a cap-dump.

 

[BoneDocUK]

agreed.

and supposed cap-dump players could bounce back and have a decent year. monhan had 17 pts/25 gp after 23/65 gp the year prior. re-signed for dirt cheap for a decent 3rd line option plus they got a 1st out of it. Gostisbhere in Arizona put up a 50 pt season after being a cap-dump.

Agree that this represents an opportunity for the Jets -- I just don't know if they've got the mindset to seize it. Hard to think of a cap-creative roster move they've made recently, or ever really.

Would love to see some assets brought in for a cap dump tho. New toys, bought cheaply. What's not to like?

 

[Whileee]

Thinking about the Jets' "restructuring", a key question that emerges is whether any of the Jets' prospects have potential to play C, particularly Perfetti, Lucius, Lambert or McGroarty.

My sense is that Lucius might be the most suited to playing C, based on his profile and history. He needs to get and stay healthy, though.

McGroarty likely has the smarts to play C, but might be focused on wing because he lacks ideal speed. Having said that, there are some really good NHL Cs that aren't brilliant skaters. It will depend on whether he gets reps at C at Michigan this season, I think. My guess is that he'll continue to be profiled at LW.

Perfetti might emerge as a C, but again he lacks what many coaches perceive as the ideal size and speed to play that role. It will be interesting to see if he gets some play there this season.

Lambert has been playing C in the WHL, and certainly has the skating. But again, he profiles as perhaps a winger at the NHL level.

 

[surixon]

Thinking about the Jets' "restructuring", a key question that emerges is whether any of the Jets' prospects have potential to play C, particularly Perfetti, Lucius, Lambert or McGroarty.

My sense is that Lucius might be the most suited to playing C, based on his profile and history. He needs to get and stay healthy, though.

McGroarty likely has the smarts to play C, but might be focused on wing because he lacks ideal speed. Having said that, there are some really good NHL Cs that aren't brilliant skaters. It will depend on whether he gets reps at C at Michigan this season, I think. My guess is that he'll continue to be profiled at LW.

Perfetti might emerge as a C, but again he lacks what many coaches perceive as the ideal size and speed to play that role. It will be interesting to see if he gets some play there this season.

Lambert has been playing C in the WHL, and certainly has the skating. But again, he profiles as perhaps a winger at the NHL level.

Perfetti to me is the best bet at C due to smarts, instincts and play style. He essentially already plays like a C in all zones. To me size isn't a big issue with his smarts. Hopefully he can get a bit quicker this summer though.

 

[Whileee]

Perfetti to me is the best bet at C due to smarts, instincts and play style. He essentially already plays like a C in all zones. To me size isn't a big issue with his smarts. Hopefully he can get a bit quicker this summer though.

It really depends on the Jets' coaches, too.

To be honest, I'm not all that convinced that Bowness is the right coach for the next phase of the Jets' restructuring, which has to include a transition to younger players / forwards.

If the Jets are emphasizing "competing now", Bowness has a tendency to go to the vets. I also wonder if he has the kind of creativity to understand how to create systems and rosters.

 

[BoneDocUK]

It really depends on the Jets' coaches, too.

To be honest, I'm not all that convinced that Bowness is the right coach for the next phase of the Jets' restructuring, which has to include a transition to younger players / forwards.

If the Jets are emphasizing "competing now", Bowness has a tendency to go to the vets. I also wonder if he has the kind of creativity to understand how to create systems and rosters.

I wonder about that also.

I wonder further if Jets management wonders about it.

 

[Whileee]

I wonder about that also.

I wonder further if Jets management wonders about it.

I was okay with Bowness as a one-year fix to transition and bring in a new voice, but I really don't think he's the right coach for the longer term.

He's already crossed signals with some of the younger leaders, such as Lowry, Morrissey, Connor, etc. I wonder if he's already strained relations with some key players.

Just speculation, but I hope the Jets are open-minded about the potential need to transform the coaching staff.

 

[surixon]

It really depends on the Jets' coaches, too.

To be honest, I'm not all that convinced that Bowness is the right coach for the next phase of the Jets' restructuring, which has to include a transition to younger players / forwards.

If the Jets are emphasizing "competing now", Bowness has a tendency to go to the vets. I also wonder if he has the kind of creativity to understand how to create systems and rosters.

Yeah, I'm OK with one more year of him focusing on a defensive foundation but I'd like to transition to Lauer as head coach in a year. I think our offense clearly struggled with him out

 

[None]

I also wonder if he has the kind of creativity to understand how to create systems and rosters.

Look no further than our power play while Brad Lauer was away. It would have to have been a pretty big coincidence that it improved almost immediately after his return.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Look no further than our power play while Brad Lauer was away. It would have to have been a pretty big coincidence that it improved almost immediately after his return.

So, our players couldn't remember to do what he taught them before he went out? They needed to be reminded on a practice by practice, game by game basis?

 

[None]

So, our players couldn't remember to do what he taught them before he went out? They needed to be reminded on a practice by practice, game by game basis?

Or what he had implemented earlier had grown stale, either by the team's own adjustments or other teams adjusting against it and he was limited in what he could change without being physically present.

 

[BoneDocUK]

Or what he had implemented earlier had grown stale, either by the team's own adjustments or other teams adjusting against it and he was limited in what he could change without being physically present.

Good analysis.

I've often wondered how much impact a coach's "present-ness" has on a group of players, but we've seen steep falloffs in performance with the absence of both Kompon and Lauer, so maybe there's something in it, at least with these Jets.

Lauer seems also to be involved in offensive systems, or maybe another voice in the room who contributes to them. The team's improvement on his return wasn't just the PP but overall offence, IMO.

I think Bowness has some great qualities, but a move towards a coaching bench that makes best use of coaches' varied skillsets without automatic deferral to the guy who 'runs the bench" is the way forward I suspect.

I do think that approach is more likely with Bowness than some others.

 

[surixon]

Good analysis.

I've often wondered how much impact a coach's "present-ness" has on a group of players, but we've seen steep falloffs in performance with the absence of both Kompon and Lauer, so maybe there's something in it, at least with these Jets.

Lauer seems also to be involved in offensive systems, or maybe another voice in the room who contributes to them. The team's improvement on his return wasn't just the PP but overall offence, IMO.

I think Bowness has some great qualities, but a move towards a coaching bench that makes best use of coaches' varied skillsets without automatic deferral to the guy who 'runs the bench" is the way forward I suspect.

I do think that approach is more likely with Bowness than some others.

Agreed. I like how the staff functioned when all where present. We seemed to have good balance across the board. Arneil and Bones seem to be good defensive coaches but seem to lack offensive creativity. Lauer brought that aspect to the table.

 

[ghyrti]

Good point. Pionk definitely has some value as a pesky, big-minutes D who can put up points reliably when he's healthy, and you're right about him stepping it up when he had to. I've seen a few pundits noting that whatever's ailing him has been going on for 2 years -- which dovetails perfectly of course with the emergence of WTF!Pionk. Maybe.

I'd still rather move Schmidt on, but no one's taking him without a hefty premium going back the other way, and I can see the org not wanting to mess with the guy who waived to come to WPG, etc. His buyout:

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Jun. 15, 2023

$9,800,000

$0

2

4

31

2/3

$6,533,333

$3,266,667

$1,633,333

Cap Hit Calculations​

SEASON	INITIAL BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	SIGNING BONUS	BUYOUT COST	POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS	SAVINGS	CAP HIT ( WPG)
2023-24	$4,950,000	$5,950,000	$0	$1,633,333	$1,633,333	$3,316,667	$2,633,333
2024-25	$4,850,000	$5,950,000	$0	$1,633,333	$1,633,333	$3,216,667	$2,733,333
2025-26	$0	$0	$0	$1,633,333	$1,633,333	-$1,633,333	$1,633,333
2026-27	$0	$0	$0	$1,633,333	$1,633,333	-$1,633,333	$1,633,333
TOTAL	$9,800,000	$11,900,000	$0	$6,533,333	$6,533,333	$3,266,667	$8,633,332

Does it make any difference that Pionk has a NTC starting in the 23/24 league year? If you add him to the list of players to be moved maybe use some of those returns to pick up Andersson from Calgary if they are dealing.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Call me a cautious optimist, but the organisation calling an all hands on deck meeting to discuss future plans is pretty telling, considering what Cheveldayoff has publicly expressed.

 

[surixon]

Call me a cautious optimist, but the organisation calling an all hands on deck meeting to discuss future plans is pretty telling, considering what Cheveldayoff has publicly expressed.

To me it indicates he has a number of trade options lined up and depending on the outcome of the meeting he'll pursue certain ones over others. If it's a decision to rebuild he'll go for the ones that are full futures, if it's to retool he'll try to go with thre more younger now players.

 

[DRW204]

Call me a cautious optimist, but the organisation calling an all hands on deck meeting to discuss future plans is pretty telling, considering what Cheveldayoff has publicly expressed.

Groundbreaking news. A manager is having a meeting!!!!

OK but seriously, will be really interested in all the "fantasy trades" that happen which Chevy lamented on earlier this offseason.

 

[CorgisPer60]

We know what direction they want to take the team. They want to make the playoffs next year as a bubble team. I don't think they need to call a meeting to discuss rebuild versus retool this close to the draft. They should have had this months ago. Likewise, Cheveldayoff wouldn't need to call a meeting to discuss value packages for players. Chipman is basically the final arbiter of that.

The cautious optimism in me is thinking that the returns he's getting on what are ostensibly rentals aren't what he would like them to be for bubble teams, so they may be forced to alter their plans to a more future oriented package.

To me it indicates he has a number of trade options lined up and depending on the outcome of the meeting he'll pursue certain ones over others. If it's a decision to rebuild he'll go for the ones that are full futures, if it's to retool he'll try to go with thre more younger now players.

Getting virtually nothing in return for taking on 4.25m cap dead weight for one year, or spending real money to spread the cap hit out over 2 years for basically the same return.

 

[gojetsgo]

I'd be very surprised if they didn't have multiple meetings every year about the future of the team, were less then a week away from the draft and 8 days away from free agency, I should be expected that they would have meetings like this... "This likely means some significant changes are on the horizon" like no shit... we have 3 big name players that only have a year of control left.. and it's been reported that our former captain is likely to be gone

 

[None]

I'd be very surprised if they didn't have multiple meetings every year about the future of the team. "This likely means some significant changes are on the horizon" like no shit... we have 3 big name players that only have a year of control left.. and it's been reported that our former captain is likely to be gone

Yeah, could just as likely be a complete nothing-burger that they do every year. But given the situation it could also be that they're having a meeting to evaluate the bigger picture regarding the packages they've been offered.

Personally I like discussing hypotheticals so I wonder if they're looking at paths forward that involve futures packages versus young roster players that (hopefully) just need more opportunity to break out.

Maybe those young players don't project as well as they were hoping to get in those offers though and are discussing the financial and future ramifications of accepting mostly futures and trusting their scouting staff as they have in the past.

Who knows it's fun to talk about though.