For the life of me, have zero clue how someone could take a chance that Luneau would be taken in order to grab Warren, who is a more than fine pick in the early 2nd. (Not a shot at the Ducks, shot at the entirety of the NHL scouting community)
I understand the love for size and snarl, but Luneau was a top 10 caliber player dealing with an injury
NHL teams missed the boat entirely with him. Made zero sense to me then, even less now.
Ducks got a very, very good player.
Anaheim took Mintyukov 10th overall. That was the Ducks' offensive d-man pick. The next pick was to draft a shutdown type. Warren was the last in the tier grouping for shutdown D: Bichsel (18th OA), Pickering (21st), Lamoureau (29th), and Chesley (38th). Warren was always going to be a long term project as a 6'5 RD.
Anaheim is known for drafting defensemen and goalies beyond the 1st round. Recent d-men picks: (OFD = Offensive d-man, DFD = Defensive d-man)
2019: Rd 2 OFD LaCombe (now with Ducks),
............ Rd 4 DFD Thrun (traded to Sharks for a 2024 3rd round pick)
.......... Both d-men won gold at the WJC with team USA
2020: Rd 1 OFD Drysdale (with Ducks, won gold and silver WJC),
............ Rd 3 DFD Moore (NCAA junior)
2021: Rd 2 OFD Zellweger (AHL, won gold at WJC-18 and WJCx2, WHL DotY x2, CHL DotY),
............ Rd 3 DFD Hinds (AHL, won gold at WJC)
2022: Rd 1 OFD Mintyukov (with Ducks, OHL DotY),
............ Rd 2 DFD Warren (In Q),
............ Rd 2 OFD Luneau (With Ducks , QMJHL DotY)
2023: Rd 4 DFD Smith (in OHL)
............ Rd 5 OFD Dionicio (in OHL)
There is a pattern here from the Ducks scouting and drafting crew on drafting defensemen. That should answer partly why Luneau was passed up at pick 42.
I was hoping for a forward with the 53rd pick, but Anaheim went boom/bust with offensive d-man Luneau. They can take their time with Luneau and hope his knee will eventually get back into form from his surgery, which caused his drop from first round to 53rd. That initial burst was gone after the surgery. Scoring 43 points in 63 games in the Q and ranked him 15th best scoring defensemen doesn't scream 1st round pick.
To give more perspective on D+0 offensive defensemen, Mintyukov scored 62 points in 67 games in the OHL, Mateychuk scored 65 points in 63 WHL games, and Korchinski scored 65 points in 67 games in the WHL. Even more perspective on D+0 OFD from the Ducks, Zellweger was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft and scored 13 points in only 11 WHL games; also scored 8 points in 7 WJC-18 games.
Luneau was an "A rating" by Central Scouting before his D+0 started, which meant 1st round pick. Living off of the promise of Luneau,
Central Scouting still ranked him 10th best NA prospect in it's mid-term rankings. Other D-men NA prospects at the mid-term rankings: Mintyukov 5th, Mateychuk 9th, and Korchinski 20th. Tristan was highly regarded. prior to the 2022-23 season.
Central Scouting's Final ranking had Luneau ranked 24th.
NHL teams didn't miss on Luneau in the first round. They were very prudent on a prospect who may or may not recover completely from knee surgery.
The 2nd round is a different matter. Anaheim had two 2nd round picks and they took a chance on Luneau with their second 2nd round pick, the 53rd selection. Teams who had multiple picks who passed on Luneau: Anaheim (42nd), San Jose (34, 45), Seattle (35, 49), Arizona (36, 43), and Detroit (40, 52). Someone was gonna win the gamble on Luneau, it was just a matter of how late Luneau would be selected. Anaheim took the gamble at pick 53 and won.