Speculation: Raymond Seider Contract Speculation

[Henkka]

And Dahlin and Dobson both had two years worse than anything Seider had done to date.

They will look long-term too, but the last year before extension will mean pretty much. Like you did see from Faber deal.

 

[Henkka]

what does he lose by not immediately signing them to it in May, but instead negotiating through the summer? They probably think "We have 8.5 and 8.5 in our back pocket. Let's talk and maybe we get a million of that back annually for 8 years."

The handwringing on these deals is a fan thing. Yzerman and Co clearly are not sweating it.

I don't see it that way.

Think Yzerman realistically thought, as one scenario, that maybe he can get the biggest fish from free agency as Stamkos. You have to build for the probability, even if it doesn't happen. You go to Plan B after that.

Then there would not have been enough RFA cap space, and cutting the term would have been the solution for RFA signings. He was after Trouba, to bolster the defence too, which would have needed bigger cap space too.

Now, there's no cap overage oncoming, and those kids will sign most probably long-term. So the plan is Plan C.

But nobody did know how the summer will suffle the roster. If you would have signed those kids earlier, you drop out from Plan A and plan B scenarios. Summer negotiations won't change anything.

There are multiple scenarios planned, and free agency / trade market did affect that.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

I don't see it that way.

Think Yzerman realistically thought, as one scenario, that maybe he can get the biggest fish from free agency as Stamkos. You have to build for the probability, even if it doesn't happen. You go to Plan B after that.

Then there would not have been enough RFA cap space, and cutting the term would have been the solution for RFA signings. He was after Trouba, to bolster the defence too, which would have needed bigger cap space too.

Now, there's no cap overage oncoming, and those kids will sign most probably long-term. So the plan is Plan C.

But nobody did know how the summer will suffle the roster. If you would have signed those kids earlier, you drop out from Plan A and plan B scenarios. Summer negotiations won't change anything.

There are multiple scenarios planned, and free agency / trade market did affect that.

We aren't really on opposite sides of the argument. I'm saying that Yzerman is keeping a budget block for them but not actively trying to sign it in April because of what you said. With just a budget hold and not an actual contract, they have flexibility to do FA or trade market as they please, and then they can lock in within that budget bracket they put.

My point is that the Wings aren't all of a sudden gonna be over a barrel with Raymond and Seider because they signed them in September instead of April.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Is it more or less complicated than any other recent RFA signings of simmilar term and/or AAV?

Tim Stützle signed his contract in early September. Rasmus Dahlin signed his in early October. Those are two decent comparables for Raymond and Seider in terms of age, performance etc.

 

[Indrid Cold]

Tim Stützle signed his contract in early September. Rasmus Dahlin signed his in early October. Those are two decent comparables for Raymond and Seider in terms of age, performance etc.

Yeah, but my old heart can't handle that kind of drama. If haggling into late summer over 100K or so is what's really going on, just give it to him and move on.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Yeah, but my old heart can't handle that kind of drama. If haggling into late summer over 100K or so is what's really going on, just give it to him and move on.

I agree but I think we're a few weeks away from any real concern.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Tim Stützle signed his contract in early September. Rasmus Dahlin signed his in early October. Those are two decent comparables for Raymond and Seider in terms of age, performance etc.

Weren't both those two still under contract for x1 more season when they signed?

 

[Henkka]

Rasmus Dahlin signed his in early October. Those are two decent comparables for Raymond and Seider in terms of age, performance etc.

Dahlin is kind of bad fit for Seider as contract comparable.

Dahlin signed his 2nd contract 2 years younger than Seider, and is already at 3rd contract as 24-year old, when Seider is 23-year old.

So this Dahlin 11.0M 3rd contract is more near of Seider career-path, but it includes less RFA-years which makes it different.

Also, on ice-time and productivity, they are not on the same page.

Bad comparable.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Weren't both those two still under contract for x1 more season when they signed?

He signed his first RFA contract in September so the point still stands. I don't think it's anything unusual that contracts get signed in August/September.

Dahlin is kind of bad fit for Seider as contract comparable.

Dahlin signed his 2nd contract 2 years younger than Seider, and is already at 3rd contract as 24-year old, when Seider is 23-year old.

So this Dahlin 11.0M 3rd contract is more near of Seider career-path, but it includes less RFA-years which makes it different.

Also, on ice-time and productivity, they are not on the same page.

Bad comparable.

The comparison is to big-name RFAs, not looking for exact 1:1 matches in terms of age, production etc.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

He signed his first RFA contract in September so the point still stands. I don't think it's anything unusual that contracts get signed in August/September.


The comparison is to big-name RFAs, not looking for exact 1:1 matches in terms of age, production etc.

Dahlin was under contract x1 more year when he signed, so the GM sugned him 11 months early....that's not the ssne thing at all...

One dosent need to have exact comparisons outside of term, let's say 6, 7, or 8 year deals with AAV between 7 and 10m...

Then how close to training camp before they were signed.. that's it...that's all

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

He signed his first RFA contract in September so the point still stands. I don't think it's anything unusual that contracts get signed in August/September.


The comparison is to big-name RFAs, not looking for exact 1:1 matches in terms of age, production etc.

Well, it's a dogshit comparison then and is functionally worthless. Because the way Yzerman and Co are looking at it is exactly trying to find 1:1 comparisons. That's how RFA deals work.

It's why, if you recall, the Andreas Athanasiou bull with trying to get 3x2.5 from the KHL was so ridiculous, because you had a slew of other guys with similar points, ice time, and RFA status that got 2x1.9-2.1.

RFA negotiations are for direct comps. Claude will say "He's more like Dahlin, Fox, or Makar than other comps" and Detroit will counter with "no, he's more this guy with 40-50 points and good defensive play who is three years from UFA than those guys who are 70-90 points and three years away or like 60 points and a year away.

 

[opivy]

Well, it's a dogshit comparison then and is functionally worthless. Because the way Yzerman and Co are looking at it is exactly trying to find 1:1 comparisons. That's how RFA deals work.

It's why, if you recall, the Andreas Athanasiou bull with trying to get 3x2.5 from the KHL was so ridiculous, because you had a slew of other guys with similar points, ice time, and RFA status that got 2x1.9-2.1.

RFA negotiations are for direct comps. Claude will say "He's more like Dahlin, Fox, or Makar than other comps" and Detroit will counter with "no, he's more this guy with 40-50 points and good defensive play who is three years from UFA than those guys who are 70-90 points and three years away or like 60 points and a year away.

The only wildcard is the Calder - so that might bump it a little bit, but otherwise this is how I view it as well.

 

[Henkka]

The only wildcard is the Calder - so that might bump it a little bit, but otherwise this is how I view it as well.

Not really. He already did get paid an ELC bonus for winning calder. So the extra money is already given during ELC. That has zero effect for future deals.

 

[Oddbob]

Not really. He already did get paid an ELC bonus for winning calder. So the extra money is already given during ELC. That has zero effect for future deals.

He is saying that from Seider's camp they can say he has done this, this and this plus he won a Calder. Not, pay him for winning the Calder. Accomplishments definitely can affect future deals. If Player A wins an award that is something that adds to their perceived value, especially if you are comparing them to Player B who is similar but has no award.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Dahlin was under contract x1 more year when he signed, so the GM sugned him 11 months early....that's not the ssne thing at all...

One dosent need to have exact comparisons outside of term, let's say 6, 7, or 8 year deals with AAV between 7 and 10m...

Then how close to training camp before they were signed.. that's it...that's all

Sabres sign defenceman Rasmus Dahlin to three-year, $18 million deal

The Buffalo Sabres have signed defenseman Rasmus Dahlin to a three-year contract with an average annual value of $6 million

www.sportsnet.ca

The Sabres agreed to terms Wednesday with defenseman Rasmus Dahlin on a three-year contract worth $18 million, getting the deal done on the eve of Buffalo's first training camp practice.

Dahlin was among the last unsigned restricted free agents around the NHL.

The contract after that, yes, that was signed early. So hopefully Seider's next contract after this upcoming one also is.

Well, it's a dogshit comparison then and is functionally worthless. Because the way Yzerman and Co are looking at it is exactly trying to find 1:1 comparisons. That's how RFA deals work.

I don't think you followed the discussion. It had nothing to do with contract money/term/etc. to do, only WHEN a contract is signed. And I pointed out that there are high profile RFAs who have gotten contracts done late. This has nothing to do with what Yzerman & Co. are looking at in terms of comparables, all it's saying is that there's nothing crazy, outrageous, unheard of to have RFAs unsigned in August.

 

[DougBodger]

Tyler Myers first deal is an interesting comparable.

What's the 2024-2025 equivalent of a 7 x $5.5 mil deal signed in 2010-2011?

 

[LongTimeDRWF]

Tyler Myers first deal is an interesting comparable.

What's the 2024-2025 equivalent of a 7 x $5.5 mil deal signed in 2010-2011?

From my real quick math, looks like ~ $8.15 million (9.26%), cap was $59.4 mil in 2010/11 and it is $88 mil in 2024/25 so $8.148

 

[norrisnick]

From my real quick math, looks like ~ $8.15 million (9.26%), cap was $59.4 mil in 2010/11 and it is $88 mil in 2024/25 so $8.148

Ekblad is coming into the last year of an 8yr post Calder win 2nd contract. His 10% would land at $8.8M/yr today.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Sabres sign defenceman Rasmus Dahlin to three-year, $18 million deal

The Buffalo Sabres have signed defenseman Rasmus Dahlin to a three-year contract with an average annual value of $6 million

www.sportsnet.ca

The contract after that, yes, that was signed early. So hopefully Seider's next contract after this upcoming one also is.


I don't think you followed the discussion. It had nothing to do with contract money/term/etc. to do, only WHEN a contract is signed. And I pointed out that there are high profile RFAs who have gotten contracts done late. This has nothing to do with what Yzerman & Co. are looking at in terms of comparables, all it's saying is that there's nothing crazy, outrageous, unheard of to have RFAs unsigned in August.

Well yeah, okay. I had said as much in my other post too. Sorry for missing the boat.

Yeah, I agree, there is nothing gained/lost by them not having pen on paper just yet.

 

[LongTimeDRWF]

Ekblad is coming into the last year of an 8yr post Calder win 2nd contract. His 10% would land at $8.8M/yr today.

Yep, the difference of 8 years versus 7 after the ELC would be around there I suspect.

I think we'll know more when the guys arrive over here, as I suspect the contracts are already settled, and they want a big PR event for the signing for the crew of them.

The silence of all parties involved (agents, players and Management) and then Newsy saying he has had role discussions with Mo and Ray indicate to me they are basically a done and deal waiting for a signature party when they show up just prior to camp opening.

 

[lilidk]

Negotiate and wait strategy is not working. Yzerman just sign them, you will pay more later

 

[Snuggs]

Idk what the hold up is unless the players are wanting less term for a 2nd big pay day.

8.75x8(70Mill) for Seider, 7.5x8(60Mill) for Raymond. Seems just that simple. Crazy.

Seiders worth more than Jake Sanderson, he should be paid accordingly.

 

[JoesuffP]

My sports news app compiles bits from Detroit news and spits out a hasty article so it might be an error but they referenced Helene St James and puckPedia with surprising terms for Seider and Raymond written like it’s a done deal I like the terms so I thought I’d share

Lalonde anticipates 'increased' leadership role for Raymond, Seider

Detroit Red Wings head coach Derek Lalonde plans to count on franchise cornerstones Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider a little more next season."Those two, the role they'll play on our team, I think it will be a little increased role with our leadership, too," he said, according to the Detroit...

thescore.com

The Red Wings have around $17.65 million in cap space, per PuckPedia. Seider is projected to sign a six-year pact with a $7.687-million cap hit, and Raymond is predicted to ink a seven-year contract with an average annual value of $7.766 million, according to Evolving-Hockey.

 

[FMichael]

Idk what the hold up is unless the players are wanting less term for a 2nd big pay day.

8.75x8(70Mill) for Seider, 7.5x8(60Mill) for Raymond. Seems just that simple. Crazy.

Seiders worth more than Jake Sanderson, he should be paid accordingly.

The current CBA ends in 2 years after the 2025/2026 season…My guess is the NHLPA may want UFA at an earlier age if they concede contract length from 8 years down to 7 or 6…This would likely benefit our young guys since they could test the market if they sign a bridge deal.

 

[Bench]

The current CBA ends in 2 years after the 2025/2026 season…My guess is the NHLPA may want UFA at an earlier age if they concede contract length from 8 years down to 7 or 6…This would likely benefit our young guys since they could test the market if they sign a bridge deal.

The guaranteed money upfront is appealing but if I'm an agent I'm whispering into these boys' ears that the cap is going up and hitting UFA years sooner is the best way to maximize your career earnings.

Is Seider okay being on a discount cap for the last 3-4 years of his contract? Because even at $8 million that's probably a team friendly rate for a #1 defender of his ilk in 2028 and beyond.