Someone did a study, it was mentioned on here recently, and it said in the later rounds you're more likely to get an NHL player by taking an over-ager.
Prospect Info: Rangers Prospects Thread (Stats in Post #1; Updated 5.29.18)
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JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK
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That’s interesting, I certainly feel like every overage pick we’ve mad has been ass.
But once you get to the 4th round and later it should all be about straight up talent; like, Barron is the type of guy you’re looking for in the later rounds. You can find a million Lakatos’s Crawley’s or Virta’s in the UFA market. At least IMO.
Fitzy
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NYI snag a 21 year old before they have to compete over him in UFA, at the loss of only a 5th round pick.
Sebastian Aho (b.1996) hockey statistics and profile at hockeydb.com
Very good value. Much better than NYR getting a 20 year old Crawley in the 4th.
Fitzy
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Kris King's Ghost
Admittedly, they’re pretty low percentage picks to begin with, but it’s nice when you can find one.
Past success stories include other names like Hagelin, Callahan and Prucha.
We’ll see if Fontaine can develop into a fourth liner.
I'm not going to really take a stance on the matter--I'm okay taking an over-age guy if the team really likes him--but I guess there is some evidence that these guys pan out at a better-than-average rate. I wish someone could find that analysis though, LOL.
Amazing Kreiderman
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Here's the thing: People think going for a 17/18 year old junior hockey player in the 6th round is a better shot than taking a 20-year old who already played pro-hockey for 2 years.
Lakatos may not have worked out, and Daniel Bernhardt is another example. But how many of the 60 players picked after Lakatos will even play pro-hockey? I'd be surprised if 10% of those have a pro-career better than Lakatos.
Edge
Kris King's Ghost
If I remember correctly, the difference wasn’t earth shattering.
It wasn’t a jump from 5 percent to 25 percent or anything along those lines.
I think the reference made by NYR2k2 is to a post I did. Sometime within the last year Adam Herman retweeted a post from a former OHL official who may now be working in the NHL. I think the original post said that after the third or fourth round (can't remember) drafted overage forwards had a higher rate of success than drafting 18 year olds. I don't think there was a reference to a study just a statement with that conclusion. Unfortunately I can't find either tweet but perhaps someone else can.
In any event I think the tweet makes sense. The point that Amazing K makes is the key. Relatively few draft picks from the fourth round on make it to the NHL as a regular. So if you have another year or two of data on a player's development you would expect to have a higher rate of success than picking an 18 year old. Look at Brad Morrison. 60 points in his 18 year old year and he looks like a very good 4th round draft pick. But then two more 60 point seasons and suddenly the pick doesn't look so good and he doesn't even get a contract offer. The fact that the overage picks selected by the Rangers didn't pan out doesn't how that drafting an overager is a bad idea. It only shows that there is a low rate of success with picks as you get into the fourth round and beyond.
I'm not advocating for only picking overagers as you get into the later rounds but I see the logic of drafting a player on whom you have more data if you feel that data shows a greater likelihood of success than drafting an 18 year who may become another Brad Morrison.
In any event I think the tweet makes sense. The point that Amazing K makes is the key. Relatively few draft picks from the fourth round on make it to the NHL as a regular. So if you have another year or two of data on a player's development you would expect to have a higher rate of success than picking an 18 year old. Look at Brad Morrison. 60 points in his 18 year old year and he looks like a very good 4th round draft pick. But then two more 60 point seasons and suddenly the pick doesn't look so good and he doesn't even get a contract offer. The fact that the overage picks selected by the Rangers didn't pan out doesn't how that drafting an overager is a bad idea. It only shows that there is a low rate of success with picks as you get into the fourth round and beyond.
I'm not advocating for only picking overagers as you get into the later rounds but I see the logic of drafting a player on whom you have more data if you feel that data shows a greater likelihood of success than drafting an 18 year who may become another Brad Morrison.
NoQuitInNewMexico
it's okay cause it's all just the way it should be
Following up on my post I found this article, which addresses the question of drafting overagers. Why overage players could be found money in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft
This is the key point in the article. Higher chance of success but lower ceiling.
"In the article, he came to the conclusion that drafting overage prospects beyond the 2nd round was a draft inefficiency, in that D+1 and D+2 players drafted between rounds 2-7 became full-time NHL players more often than prospects in their draft year. This line of thinking was also promoted by former London Knights Assistant GM, Jake Goldberg, who was recently hired by the Arizona Coyotes as their new Director of Hockey Operations.
Although overagers appear to become NHL players more often than those in their draft year, it’s important to note that they tend to have a lower ceiling."
This is the key point in the article. Higher chance of success but lower ceiling.
"In the article, he came to the conclusion that drafting overage prospects beyond the 2nd round was a draft inefficiency, in that D+1 and D+2 players drafted between rounds 2-7 became full-time NHL players more often than prospects in their draft year. This line of thinking was also promoted by former London Knights Assistant GM, Jake Goldberg, who was recently hired by the Arizona Coyotes as their new Director of Hockey Operations.
Although overagers appear to become NHL players more often than those in their draft year, it’s important to note that they tend to have a lower ceiling."
Joey Bones
***** 2k16
http://www.howlings.net/2018/04/23/cantlons-corner-wolf-pack-season-review/
Shout out to @RangerBoy for posting this in the Minor League Thread, but I thought it was interesting in regards to Nieves and, namely, Tambellini.
Also mentions that Jed Ortmeyer could become the GM of Hartford next season....
Shout out to @RangerBoy for posting this in the Minor League Thread, but I thought it was interesting in regards to Nieves and, namely, Tambellini.
Also mentions that Jed Ortmeyer could become the GM of Hartford next season....
eco's bones
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FWIW Morrison was considered one of the better sleeper picks in his draft year—so I’m not sure he’s the best example. That pick IMO wasn’t out of nowhere—it’s just the player didn’t progress and he didn’t work out. Then again I was surprised at the recent news that he was Asperger’s. Apart from that though he had NHL connections—his dad and I believe his brother in law is Josh Gorges. He would train with NHL’ers in the off season.
The point you were making though is a good one or at least I agree with it.
Kingston avoided a sweep and won 5-2. Sean Day was the first star, with a goal and two assists.
Day had 5 goals in 50 regular season games, and now has 4 in 15 playoff games.
Lays
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Virta is doing really good this year I wouldn’t group him with those two (even Crawley wasn’t that bad of a pick) check out Virtas 2018 season highlights floating around on YouTube somewhere, I like him a lot
Lays
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Joey Bones
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In October 2016 he signed a two-year extension. I'm not clear on whether that included the 2016-2017 campaign or started at the conclusion of the season. So he's either out of contract or under contract for another year. Eliteprospects lists his 2018-2019 team as TPS, so, we'll see.
Lion Hound
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That was sort of out of left field with Nieves and Tambellini being dealt at the draft. Wonder if he is just speculating or if there is some validity to this? Maybe they will accompany a roster player in a larger deal?
The Crypto Guy
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Pretty terrible league though. He needs to make his way to NA and play in the AHL and see what he can do here.
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