Prospect Info: Rangers Prospects Thread (Player Stats/Info in Post #1; Updated 6.27.19)

[Tawnos]

A few years ago HF ranked the Rangers 3rd, iirc. That was right around the time Richards was signed, give or take a year.

You can argue semantics that the 2011 prospects outside the NHL were worse in 2011 than today, but we had a ton of young players beginning with 1D Mcdonagh and 1C Stepan. We also had 2 vets in their prime (Hank and Gabby) who were superior to any vets we have today.

As far as signing UFAs go, it is better to have a 22 year old McD, 21 year old Stepan and 29 year old Hank than a bunch of teenagers who never saw the inside of MSG. In what sense does having K'Andre helpful to Panarin in 2019-20 more than Mcdonagh was helpful to Brad in 2011-12? Even if Kravtsov has more potential than Cally, is he going to be a 30-goal scorer for us this year like Cally was in 2011-12?

The signing of Richards made a lot more sense, yet he still had to be bought out.

Richards was also 3.5 years older when we signed him.

I wasn't talking about fan survey rankings. If HF rated them highly, fine, but that's not who I was talking about.

 

[McRanger]

Summer/Fall of 2011 was probably the golden age for 21st century Rangers D.

McDonagh and Sauer had just finished their rookie years and looked excellent, exceeding most expectations. Staal had already had his first major concussion but was only 24 and there were hopes he would be fine. MDZ had a rocky sophomore year but was only 21 and was slated to be 3LD/PP guy and the hope was he would excel in a lesser role while eventually growing into something more. Girardi was only 27. Stralman signed in November. And we had just traded for Erixon and drafted McIlrath.

Things were different by summer of 2012 through that season.

Erixon was traded away. McIlrath had another unremarkable year and was having knee surgery. Staal has missed half of '11-'12 because of concussions and would later that season almost lose an eye. Sauer would never play again. We knew what we had in MDZ. So while we had gained a #1 in McD and found a gem in Stralman, the depth and the "future" had taken a hit aside from Skjei who was just drafted 28th overall and 22 year old John Moore who was part of the Gaborik deal.

Still a solid core, but not quite as "sky's the limit!" as 2011.

 

[RGY]

Summer/Fall of 2011 was probably the golden age for 21st century Rangers D.

McDonagh and Sauer had just finished their rookie years and looked excellent, exceeding most expectations. Staal had already had his first major concussion but was only 24 and there were hopes he would be fine. MDZ had a rocky sophomore year but was only 21 and was slated to be 3LD/PP guy and the hope was he would excel in a lesser role while eventually growing into something more. Girardi was only 27. Stralman signed in November. And we had just traded for Erixon and drafted McIlrath.

Things were different by summer of 2012 through that season.

Erixon was traded away. McIlrath had another unremarkable year and was having knee surgery. Staal has missed half of '11-'12 because of concussions and would later that season almost lose an eye. Sauer would never play again. We knew what we had in MDZ. So while we had gained a #1 in McD and found a gem in Stralman, the depth and the "future" had taken a hit aside from Skjei who was just drafted 28th overall and 22 year old John Moore who was part of the Gaborik deal.

Still a solid core, but not quite as "sky's the limit!" as 2011.

So you’re saying things change from year to year and thus the plan changes? Some here would argue you must strictly adhere to one and only one plan, through and through. Don’t deviate.

 

[romba]

valid point although you can probably make the same argument about fox, shesty, kravtsov, etc

True, I would also agree about the other guys you mentioned to a certain extend, but I'm specifically remembering a post from the other day from @Amazing Kreiderman who listed Kakko's travel schedule the past year which was off the charts nutso. Traverse City and more travel just seems unnecessary for him at this point.

 

[True Blue]

Hard to say. At what point in MDZ's career? After the '08 draft where he was the 10th D taken 20th overall? After a fairly pedestrian D+1 year? After a phenomenal NHL rookie campaign as a 19 year old? After a messy sophomore year?

How MDZ was viewed really depended on when he was being viewed. He had a very up and down first few years.

I thought we were discussing when they were prospects? He was fantastic as a rookie.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

True, I would also agree about the other guys you mentioned to a certain extend, but I'm specifically remembering a post from the other day from @Amazing Kreiderman who listed Kakko's travel schedule the past year which was off the charts nutso. Traverse City and more travel just seems unnecessary for him at this point.

Kakko has played hockey in Canada, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Germany, Denmark, Belarus, Russia, Finland, Sweden and Norway the last 12 months. Timezones 12 hours apart, 100 games in 7 different competitions.

 

[effen]

So you’re saying things change from year to year and thus the plan changes? Some here would argue you must strictly adhere to one and only one plan, through and through. Don’t deviate.

I think most people would be a lot more on board if Panarin were up as a 28 y/o UFA next year. I think everyone would be on board if it were the year after that. It's timing. It's the presence of a franchise guy you pay $11M to accelerates the timetable, even if its just passively, when there is no reason to accelerate it yet. The cupboard's not full yet.

 

[McRanger]

I thought we were discussing when they were prospects? He was fantastic as a rookie.

Are we? Honestly I couldn't tell. The time frame of this discussion was all over the place, the one year MDZ was a prospect McD wasn't, at least not for us.

Purely looking at MDZ during and just after his D+1 season I would say he is probably on par with Lundkvist. Its harder to compare him to the other older guys.

Of course that all changed his ridiculous rookie season. Then changed again. And again. MDZ has not had the most stable progression. He was light years ahead of McD at 19 but then light years behind him by age 21 or 22.

 

[True Blue]

I think most people would be a lot more on board if Panarin were up as a 28 y/o UFA next year. I think everyone would be on board if it were the year after that. It's timing. It's the presence of a franchise guy you pay $11M to accelerates the timetable, even if its just passively, when there is no reason to accelerate it yet. The cupboard's not full yet.

I think that this hits on a lot of issues

 

[Edge]

I think most people would be a lot more on board if Panarin were up as a 28 y/o UFA next year. I think everyone would be on board if it were the year after that. It's timing. It's the presence of a franchise guy you pay $11M to accelerates the timetable, even if its just passively, when there is no reason to accelerate it yet. The cupboard's not full yet.

I think my comfort level increases moderately if this were an option on July 1, 2020, and significantly if it were an option on July 1, 2021.

 

[Off Sides]

Can't wait for next off-season if Hall looks to be going UFA.

I may not even dislike the Rangers chasing him depending on how this draft, the trade deadline next year goes.

Similar to Trouba in a way, right now seems like they would be making choices without any real NHL information beyond what Chytil/Howden/Lias/Georgiev did last year. In a year's time much of that could change.

 

[Edge]

Can't wait for next off-season if Hall looks to be going UFA.

I may not even dislike the Rangers chasing him depending on how this draft, the trade deadline next year goes.

Similar to Trouba in a way, right now seems like they would be making choices without any real NHL information beyond what Chytil/Howden/Lias/Georgiev did last year. In a year's time much of that could change.

And my own concerns about Trouba aside, he's another player for whom my interest increases as we change the scenarios.

Trading multiple pieces for him to play next season and then having to sign him? Not at the top of my list.

Approaching him as an UFA in 2020? Much, much more receptive to that.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Can't wait for next off-season if Hall looks to be going UFA.

I may not even dislike the Rangers chasing him depending on how this draft, the trade deadline next year goes.

Similar to Trouba in a way, right now seems like they would be making choices without any real NHL information beyond what Chytil/Howden/Lias/Georgiev did last year. In a year's time much of that could change.

Hall - Zibs - Kakko pls

Would also mean we'd suck and get a #1 OA pick.

 

[romba]

I think my comfort level increases moderately if this were an option on July 1, 2020, and significantly if it were an option on July 1, 2021.

With you on this. I understand the buy now thought process though. We pay 11m for next year when we're not ready to compete, but they view the 11M for next year as an investment for the next few years when we will be more competitive. It's what you pay to have access to a star in their prime.

My problem with that argument is the first year, the year we're potentially 'throwing away' as an investment, is likely going to be the most valuable year production-wise on the contract. And no matter which way you cut it the back end will not look great and I would think we'd still be competitive at that point so the cap hit will hurt. I think the 'buy now' crew expect Panarin to have equally good years nearly through to the end of his contract (fewer NHL years on his body argument etc.) making the 1 wasted year a worthy investment. I disagree with that and think he will decline like 90% of the rest of the league-downhill from 30-31 which is why I'm firmly in the 'nope' group for Panarin.

 

[McRanger]

I think my comfort level increases moderately if this were an option on July 1, 2020, and significantly if it were an option on July 1, 2021.

In regards to 2020, whether it increases moderately or significantly (or not at all) depends on the development of our young D's and G's this season. There are a lot of moving parts.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

With you on this. I understand the buy now thought process though. We pay 11m for next year when we're not ready to compete, but they view the 11M for next year as an investment for the next few years when we will be more competitive. It's what you pay to have access to a star in their prime.

My problem with that argument is the first year, the year we're potentially 'throwing away' as an investment, is likely going to be the most valuable year production-wise on the contract. And no matter which way you cut it the back end will not look great and I would think we'd still be competitive at that point so the cap hit will hurt. I think the 'buy now' crew expect Panarin to have equally good years nearly through to the end of his contract (fewer NHL years on his body argument etc.) making the 1 wasted year a worthy investment. I disagree with that and think he will decline like 90% of the rest of the league-downhill from 30-31 which is why I'm firmly in the 'nope' group for Panarin.

I'd bet money on Panarin not declining at 30-31 with his size and the way he plays (assuming no serious injury). Look at Zucc for starters.

Panarin will be fine.

 

[Leetch3]

In regards to 2020, whether it increases moderately or significantly (or not at all) depends on the development of our young D's and G's this season. There are a lot of moving parts.

THIS x1000000000000000 there is no set timeline...just because the calendar flips that doesn't make us more ready for the next stage.

 

[Off Sides]

Hall - Zibs - Kakko pls

Would also mean we'd suck and get a #1 OA pick.

Plus we could look forward to the Benedict Hall stuff.

 

[kovazub94]

When was Fast ever viewed as having top-6 potential? These kinds of statements lead me to either believe you’re making things up to prove a point or, more likely, you remember the outlier opinions and not the consensus ones. Same with MDZ as a #1. I thought he could end up a first pairing guy, but never a #1 and that seemed to be the feeling around him at the time. I am not thinking “how can you compare trash...” blah blah blah. I’m saying that, as well thought of as MDZ was as a prospect, he wasn’t thought of having the potential that K. Miller might. Ditto for the best forward prospects and youth at the time compared to today. One place you might be right... JT Miller was thought of as future captain material. Boy, was that wrong.

I’m not assuming that they were viewed with greater excitement than they turned out. I’m saying that you’re exaggerating what that excitement level was. Any overzealousness at the time (and I’m not suggesting there wasn’t any) was overcompensation for a largely weak prospect pool. But we don’t have a weak prospect pool today, so the situations aren’t that comparable.

Also, to be clear, I’m not in any way suggesting that this whole thing won’t go sideways. Any rebuild bears that risk.

Yes (bolded)

 

[kovazub94]

2011 Gaborik is not the best player (Lundqvist aside) compared to the current team. Zibanejad plays more important position, younger, better defensively and cheaper. Stepan as 1C is taking a view from later years and projecting hindsight on 2011 (when middle 6 center Anisimov was still ahead of him and there were discussions on which'd turnout 2C or 3C ). Dubi, Cally etc were overwhelmingly viewed as middle-6 forwards at best. Fast and Hags were 3rd line prospects.

Same on D. McD didn't become 1D until later and his most optimistic projections were as the first pair. Stralman was a complete unknown and NOBODY would call him a 1st pair D. MDZ was not a more prominent prospect than ADA now. As a GROUP Hajek, Rykov, Lindren, Miller, Lundkvist, Reunanen, Keane is way better then the prospect group in 2011 and more likely to produce 1D (though obviously not guaranteed)

And I'd be ecstatic if Miller turns into McD; a bit disappointed but will accept if Kravtsov turns into Kreider or Chytil into Stepan (especially based on their D+1/2 results), but I will be absolutely disgusted and blame New York Rangers bad luck if Kakko turns into Zuke's level impact player. It would be a HUGE failure. What a terrible comparison for what looks like an outstanding 2OA.

 

[gravey9]

With you on this. I understand the buy now thought process though. We pay 11m for next year when we're not ready to compete, but they view the 11M for next year as an investment for the next few years when we will be more competitive. It's what you pay to have access to a star in their prime.

My problem with that argument is the first year, the year we're potentially 'throwing away' as an investment, is likely going to be the most valuable year production-wise on the contract. And no matter which way you cut it the back end will not look great and I would think we'd still be competitive at that point so the cap hit will hurt. I think the 'buy now' crew expect Panarin to have equally good years nearly through to the end of his contract (fewer NHL years on his body argument etc.) making the 1 wasted year a worthy investment. I disagree with that and think he will decline like 90% of the rest of the league-downhill from 30-31 which is why I'm firmly in the 'nope' group for Panarin.

In thinking about signing Panarin... I'm starting to wonder if it makes more sense to sign a guy like him now as opposed to someone else in 2 years.

Here's why...

You can front-load a deal and start the clock now -- which means it's much more tradable starting year 4 or 5 of the deal -- right in the middle of the contention window when flexibility might mean more to the team.

EXAMPLE: a front-loaded 7x11 could look like (15m, 15m, 13m, 10m, 9m, 7.5m, 7.5m) In his age 31 season, the new team is looking at taking on a 4x34 contract or 8.5aav. And 7.5AAV by age 33 season. By then, the salary cap might approx 90m or more.

So if Panarin's production slips to 50-60p/season the contract would still likely be moveable as he ages. Especially if we retain 1-2m. Point is, front-loading a deal now for Panarin and starting the clock now vs signing someone in 2 years will most likely create more flexibility in the contention window vs getting into a Tavares/TO situation as RFAs are coming up.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

In thinking about signing Panarin... I'm starting to wonder if it makes more sense to sign a guy like him now as opposed to someone else in 2 years.

Here's why...

You can front-load a deal and start the clock now -- which means it's much more tradable starting year 4 or 5 of the deal -- right in the middle of the contention window when flexibility might mean more to the team.

EXAMPLE: a front-loaded 7x11 could look like (15m, 15m, 13m, 10m, 9m, 7.5m, 7.5m) In his age 31 season, the new team is looking at taking on a 4x34 contract or 8.5aav. And 7.5AAV by age 33 season. By then, the salary cap might approx 90m or more.

So if Panarin's production slips to 50-60p/season the contract would still likely be moveable as he ages. Especially if we retain 1-2m. Point is, front-loading a deal now for Panarin and starting the clock now vs signing someone in 2 years will most likely create more flexibility in the contention window vs getting into a Tavares/TO situation as RFAs are coming up.

The problem is that he’s only getting to free agency because he wants to play in specific places, there’s going to be a NMC on that contract that’s going to be hard to get him to waive

 

[gravey9]

The problem is that he’s only getting to free agency because he wants to play in specific places, there’s going to be a NMC on that contract that’s going to be hard to get him to waive

True...

 

[Beacon]

As a GROUP Hajek, Rykov, Lindren, Miller, Lundkvist, Reunanen, Keane is way better then the prospect group in 2011.

Ok, I'm done here. Either you have no memory or just lying, but this is insanely off. This is on par with the statement once made here that Prucha is superior to Crosby.

 

[Joey Bones]

So the Rangers have 48 hours to sign Bernhardt (who retired) and Lakatos to ELC's or else they lose their rights!!

Don't think either will get signed, so we now return to our scheduled program of beef!!