Just listened to the new Pipeline podcast and unsurprisingly there's not a lot of new news, as the Guardians aren't talking to anybody and it's all just speculation at this point. I believe there will be a new Mayo mock later tonight, and I suspect he'll have the Guardians taking Bazzana.
They talked about polling other execs and got around 20 responses, with 15 going Bazzana and a handful going Wetherholt and a handful Condon. It sounds like there's some jockeying in terms of signability that will ultimately affect Cleveland's decision, but the way they are speculating makes it seem like it will still be Bazzana in the end. The way they are drawing it up, Condon and Caglianone are strong bets to go 2 and 3 if they won't go 1, meaning less of a discount, but also meaning that Bazzana's floor could be lower, meaning he could still take a meaningful enough haircut to go first.
That makes a good bit of sense to me. If I was a Guardians fan, I wouldn't really want to mess with a guy who had hamstring issues just to save a little bit more of slot.
For the Pirates, I think it's somewhat significant because if the Rockies take a position player, then it could hamper the odds of Kurtz getting to our pick. If it goes Bazzana and then Condon/Caglianone 2-3 in some order, then I think a lot hinges on Oakland, and they are seemingly not taking a pitcher. But I also think that for teams 5-9, the pitchers and prep players will represent a big temptation, in addition to the fact that Kansas City, LA Angels, and Chicago are all extreme wild cards based on past selections.
So I feel relatively confident at this point that one of Kurtz, Montgomery, or Wetherholt is going to get to our pick. I don't really think that Tibbs is a bad consolation prize, though I prefer both Kurtz and Montgomery to him -- Montgomery has the biggest upside from a tools perspective along with real value in the OF, and Kurtz is just the more polished player, including as a plus defender at 1B, which while not the athletic versatility people love, is not something to just scoff at.
As we close in on one week left, I've also softened a little bit on the idea of a prep player, and particularly Konnor Griffin. Rainer is tooled up and has the Corey Seager comps, and Cruz will almost definitely no longer be here by the time he would be ready, but I think as a prospect, Griffin is in a prep tier that is all on his own and might be a kind of diamond in the rough if other teams are laser-focused on the college guys. We're talking about a guy who has all the tools to be a 30-30 center fielder, i.e. a superstar. Even if the need for MLB ready bats to complement Skenes et al is very apparent, if you can get that kind of upside picking 9th, ultimately it's really hard to just say no to it.
My preference as of today, in order, is probably: Montgomery, Kurtz, Griffin, Tibbs. I'm not as infatuated with Wetherholt and I don't think Burns, Caglionone, etc will really fall that far. I basically see it as Montgomery being the premier college bat who circumstances may align to let fall in our lap, then Griffin being the tooled up prep player who is just too much value to pass up, and Kurtz being a happy middle ground that is perfect for immediate and long-term need and might just align due to other teams having plenty to chase besides a 1B. Tibbs is someone who works as a pro-ready bat if you can get him to take a solid enough discount to the point where you can take some overslot shots with the next 2 picks, but that's how I see it based on everything I'm reading lately.
