Beyond a desire to showcase Ortiz in a potential trade, I think he is one of the 5 best options right now. Falter is coming down to Earth in a hurry.
I liked him a ton in 2022 and despite the weird velo drop the stuff still looks quite good. Reliever guys who may-be-starters are frequently moved as a piece in large deals (look at the Pads/Yankees Soto trade as a recent example). He may be interesting to a team like the Marlins or White Sox.
Agree on both counts. I almost can't believe I am saying this, but Falter has had such a solid body of work this season that I am inclined to write off the three bad June starts, with one against the Dodgers and one in this tiny ballpark. That said, Ortiz has earned his way into further looks.
I think we might go with some kind of 6-man rotation, but even then, Perez coming back would mean only one spot still. The other wrinkle is that Ortiz has shown the ability to be both the bulk guy and a very good 1-2 IP guy as needed, so he's obviously become a very important piece of the pitching staff, no matter how he's being used.
My guess would be that some of the 6-man would be Skenes/Jones/ general effectiveness oriented, and some could be as a way to showcase for a trade, though quality pitching is hard enough to find that I might be more inclined to hoard it in his case. That said, if Ortiz can be a package that lands you the bat, it's hard to turn your nose up at that. Ortiz has also been quality, but nothing really overwhelming in terms of the K stuff until today, and without disrespecting him, a good chunk of the Reds lineup gives our worst guys a run for their money.
For me, at the end of the day, it's really hard to anticipate what a team would want in a trade, either from us or from anybody. This feels part wishful thinking, but I think the White Sox and Angels particularly are susceptible to quantity type or just not that overwhelming type of packages. Their farm systems are in the bottom 10, as is Miami's, though the White Sox at least have a couple of guys that stand out.
Miami seems most likely to do a full-blown rebuild, given that their system is bad and they don't have any real core players to build around. I only don't include them with the other two because the GM comes from the Rays tree which obviously has a better reputation than the other two orgs. The Arraez trade doesn't look amazing, but I think that's a reflection of Arraez more than the trade.
Their division is way harder and despite the good young pitching that's all hurt, they have to be kind of aggressive. Jazz is a good player, but there are rumors that he isn't well liked, and he's streaky at times and maybe in the end just a good 3-win type player who can adequately play CF for his prime years. I still think he'd be a great target, but I'm not sure I'd want to give up Johnson plus multiple pitchers for him. It's hard to know what they'll do, but I suspect he will be heavily rumored to be traded and they'll either just do it along with everybody else they can, or keep him and wait til the winter meetings.
With Robert, I could see the White Sox doing what they always seem to do and stop short of a full-on rebuild. Crochet has the look of a staff ace to build around, and they aren't afraid to make signings, but they are kind of stuck in the middle, even as they are in a weaker division (at least on paper). Robert is a difference maker but with his health, it seems like a no brainer to take multiple players and try to reload. I would certainly take the risk of Johnson and multiple pitchers here, and it seems to me that they could use a pitching injection to go along with Crochet and a rising top pitching prospect they have. Maybe here is where a guy like Bae or Peguero makes sense in a package.
The Angels are more of a mess than both of the others for obvious reasons. Ohtani is gone now, and they have no farm system of which to speak. They don't seem intent on rebuilding, as that'd mean trading Trout. In their case, Ward seems like someone you should try to cash out on for what you can. I don't watch a lot of him, so I am just going on some numbers and what I have seen people point out. He's 30, plays corner OF but not spectacularly, and is nothing too special vs RHP, even though his offensive profile in general is multi-dimensional and clearly a consistent everyday player.
That said, Ward seems more like the kind of guy who can be acquired for 2-3 solid prospects, but nobody "blue chip", to use an old phrase. Two more years of control and I think you could really be talking about a guy like Ashcraft or Harrington at the front, maybe along with a Bae or Peguero and some younger minors talent if they want it. I could even see one of those two #3-#4 type starters, Priester, an MLB ready IF, and then a younger prospect or complementary player being enough here. Though I will also say that I don't really think Ward is a guy we'll target, but we have no idea because we've never seen this group try to buy.
So that's a long-winded treatment. I think Ortiz could be a guy that's in the mix, but I find all of these teams to be head scratchers. The first question is whether we'd unload the chamber to try and get Robert, since that's what it would take, and even then, we probably aren't topping what some other teams can do and would do, since a healthy Robert is a clear and premium impact player.
Ward seems more viable as a lower cost move and is on a team that should try to shake it up and reload somehow. He would raise the floor of our offensive production, but it's not an answer to CF. Chisholm seems somewhere in the middle, but a key feature with him is that he would be an answer at everyday CF. I think we should make a run at Robert, but I am also kind of talking myself into Chisholm as well, since he has a slightly less worrying injury history.
