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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: New season of plundering begins

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DJ Spinoza said:
10 Ks in a debut is a pretty high bar to set for yourself. I'm not going to draw any conclusions about a standard based on one performance, but he's a strikeout pitcher. He did it in the spring and more often than not last year, and it was dialed up in the debut. I think some regression and bumps along the road are inevitable, because otherwise, if the stuff and command are consistently at this level, then he's much more Strider than Strider-esque.

It's such an obvious comparison that it might not be worth reaching for, but there's definitely a path for the kind of performances Strider gave in 2022, with the main exception being that Jones immediately started in the rotation. It wasn't really until last year that Strider became truly out of this world in the sense that 8-9 Ks was basically the floor for him every start.

In any case, I don't want to get way ahead of myself there, or with this, which is why I popped back in:

To add some more early optimism to the thread, one of the slightly under the radar things so far is just how comfortable Davis looks behind the plate. It's still too early for data, but I've noticed him with what seem to be some nice frames around the edges. Ramzi pointed out that his movements can look very jerky, but besides that noise, the receiving just looks way better, to the point where I think any of the winter talk about him not being suitable at all for catcher needs to be brought to a screeching halt.

To temper this optimism with some pessimism, we also have this:



Not really unexpected, but still not encouraging to see. It's a shame that for all else going in the right direction, this is what the front office seemingly is going to hang their hat on in the early going, because they don't want to burn Falter's roster spot.

I do think he would get claimed: the Rockies or White Sox are easy places where someone would take a flier, but I really hope that runway is very short, i.e. less than 5 starts. It doesn't feel all that cocky to say that Falter vs the Orioles next weekend is basically an auto-loss unless we treat him as a pure opener.

The x-factor to a decision happening soon should be the walks. They weren't a problem in the spring, so maybe he can clean that up. Quick glance says he'll get Phillies, Mets, Brewers after the Orioles. That's the end of April and when a decision should be arriving at the absolute latest, doubly so if German or Lauer show anything, or Priester's velocity is living at 95+.
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Of course it was a great and electrifying debut. But I'd rather see 7 Ks and 1ER than 10Ks and 3 ERs.

He was unlucky, yes. But I'm hoping we get more of the former and less "looks awesome but has a 4.9 ERA." That's the nature of luck regressing, so it's a good thing.
 
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For sure, but ERA is not really telling much of anything for a while yet. If he keeps overpowering everyone and leading all pitchers in whiffs on the day he pitches, the results will quickly be absurd.

I think the question will be how he looks in the times where the strikeouts aren't piling up, even though that's not the blueprint for him. It didn't really seem like he was laboring and chasing strikeouts, which was probably the most encouraging sign to me. The advantage to above average command and tons of whiffs is that those both lend themselves to bad contact.

For now, I don't think it's worth worrying much. You are absolutely right that if the luck regresses, the earned runs will drop, and that's obviously important in general but also specifically with Jones. It might be prudent to keep him on a slightly tighter leash of 5-6 IP or 85-90 pitches in order to manage workload and build momentum.

PS: I just did very hazy schedule counting, and as long as I did not make a mistake or there's not a spot start/skipped day, it does seem like Jones would line up to face off against Strider on Saturday, May 25 at PNC. Since we have two months to go, it seems highly likely that won't end up being the case, but it would be fun.
 
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I think Falter is going to get some runway just because it will take some time for German and Lauer to get back up to game-speed, and they don't really have many other options to sub in for Falter right now. Priester is the obvious one, but I sincerely doubt that they'd pull the plug on Falter because of 1 bad start. Make it 4 or 5 bad starts and then I think we get into the Priester discussion. I think the Pirates are hoping that Falter can be passable just long enough for them to be able to call up Skenes to replace him.
 
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Not in love with starting Williams over Triolo with an off day on the docket this week, unless there's a minor injury with Triolo that we don't know about.

That said, I'm gonna try and abstain from complaining about the low-hanging fruit of Shelton's lineups this year. It's going to happen anyways, and I actually think it contributes to an overly negative image that he gets sometimes, because he's easy to blame as a figurehead.

I would bet some of the rotation is also coming from management decisions, but that's still really Shelton given what we know about Shelton working fairly close with BC. I think it's not the end of the world to keep players relatively in the mix, and the ideal outcome here would be little time for Williams in the rest of the week other than as a potential defensive replacement (if for example Cruz was pinch hit for).

Williams is an easy target because he's the one obvious no bat on the roster. Ideally, Peguero or Gonzales put some pressure for a callup, but even setting all this aside, my main perspective here is that Shelton often makes very good decisions in games that contribute to better win chances. I'm willing to just give him some rope without acting like every minor nitpick I have is going to cause an automatic loss. To get to Gore today, I think we're going to need to have the long ball working... maybe Hayes' first, or Davis, or Olivares. Gore was carving people up in the spring but he is also susceptible to being hit around and hard contact.
 
DJ Spinoza said:
Not in love with starting Williams over Triolo with an off day on the docket this week, unless there's a minor injury with Triolo that we don't know about.

That said, I'm gonna try and abstain from complaining about the low-hanging fruit of Shelton's lineups this year. It's going to happen anyways, and I actually think it contributes to an overly negative image that he gets sometimes, because he's easy to blame as a figurehead.

I would bet some of the rotation is also coming from management decisions, but that's still really Shelton given what we know about Shelton working fairly close with BC. I think it's not the end of the world to keep players relatively in the mix, and the ideal outcome here would be little time for Williams in the rest of the week other than as a potential defensive replacement (if for example Cruz was pinch hit for).

Williams is an easy target because he's the one obvious no bat on the roster. Ideally, Peguero or Gonzales put some pressure for a callup, but even setting all this aside, my main perspective here is that Shelton often makes very good decisions in games that contribute to better win chances. I'm willing to just give him some rope without acting like every minor nitpick I have is going to cause an automatic loss. To get to Gore today, I think we're going to need to have the long ball working... maybe Hayes' first, or Davis, or Olivares. Gore was carving people up in the spring but he is also susceptible to being hit around and hard contact.
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Triolo did take that foul ball off the inside of his knee late in the game yesterday. He finished the game but it may have swollen up afterwards and they are being cautious.

Edit: emp beat me to it.
 
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Good call, completely slipped my mind.

I think in the end, Shelton is a pretty strong added positive. More often than not, he's exactly right about his bullpen decisions, and although it's a bit of a black box to say this, it seems like players really like playing for him and the day-to-day decisions with the lineup are probably part of that. It would be nicer to have a better final guy on the bench but I'm not gonna lose sleep over it.

I'd like to see Davis get going with the XBH or HR ball today. I really think that he's someone who could dial in for about a month and really catapult the early momentum into something that at least somewhat rivals what we had going early last year. It's hard not to get overexcited, because the early schedule is not extremely strong. There still have to be firm expectations to take this winnable series in Washington, and they are capable enough to beat us.
 
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Another positive of this team having legitimate MLB talent this year is that we can finally get a good idea of how good of a manager Shelton is. I'd call him good right now, I wouldn't go much beyond that but I feel comfortable in calling him good. But his lineup decisions and team management will really be scrutinized when he has actual MLB options, rather than trying to figure out the best way to maximize a team full of AAAA players.

He's definitely a player's coach that guys like to play for, and he has shown to make good bullpen decisions. I think the bullpen management may be the best thing he has shown so far, the Pirates have consistently gotten good results out of low end acquisitions like Borucki, Moreta and Ramirez and I think Shelton's usage is definitely a part of that.

This year will be a good test of how his batter personnel decisions are, playing Joe vs Tellez or Suwinski vs Taylor may actually impact games if he picks right or wrong. Now that Shelton has actual alternatives, he'll need to show he can determine when to play one and sit the other, especially considering how hot and cold guys like Suwinski and Joe have shown to be.
 
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McCutchen got absolutely hosed on a call that AB but man he is really struggling to start the year. He can't put a ball in play right now, let alone get a hit.
 
Yeah, still made him work a good bit. It's tricky with a guy like Gore who has overpowering stuff and is all over the place. Big advantage to get his pitch count high, because I believe the Nats bullpen was worked pretty fairly in Cincy, though not sure it matters a lot with the off day tomorrow anyways.

Just need to not give it back with a quick inning in the 2nd. Working counts like this is a recipe for success every single time. Hopefully Gonzales can be a somewhat stabilizing presence in the rotation.
 
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Davis with a nice double and Cruz gets him to 3rd on a single. Really nice hitting by both of them against Gore.

They need to get at least one here.
 
MrBrightside said:
Alika making us look dumb with all our bitching about his PT.
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I get why he gets crap, it's because he can't hit, but I still think the amount of crap he gets is ridiculous. If he could hit at okay levels, he'd be a full blown MLB starter like Michael Taylor is.

Gore's control is really rough, Reynolds or Hayes need to make him pay here.
 
Good to get 2 runs there but that still felt like they left some on the table.

It's crazy how much this team is scoring while still also seemingly leaving a lot of guys on base.
 
Yeah would have been nice to get more of a kill shot there but we'll take it. An early lead with a pitcher like Gonzales is a dream. I imagine his pace will help in keeping Gore uncomfortable. Just don't let him settle in and add on at the next opportunity.

I'd still like to see some of our mashers line up that 97 mph fastball today.
 
Gore is both settled in and getting the benefit of some extremely favorable calls. Taylor getting robbed of a walk and then getting K'd feels like a bad omen.
 
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