Just noticed that Pipeline put out their new mock today, which I hadn't seen before my long draft rant earlier. It's a tandem mock because they are at the combine right now, and it was done on the Pipeline podcast. They have the standard pick of Bazzana at 1.1 but mention the possibility of a deal besides Condon. They have Kurtz being taken by us, which I would love. Listening now, here are some notes:
- Bazzana just seems like an educated guess and what everybody in the industry is saying. They say the odds of Bazzana and Condon being the top two picks are probably 65-70%. Seems like the Reds will for sure take one or the other, and also seems like the Rockies will definitely take Burns.
- Mayo puts Wetherholt 5th and says the major worry for him is the recurring hamstring issue. Leg issues aren't great, but they both agree that if you aren't worried about that, then there isn't much that separates him from Bazzana. They seem to think if he gets outside the top 3-4, he could still be someone who'd cut a deal. Callis says he doesn't have a feel for where teams are with the injury. No mention of the Pirates, but it might be noteworthy if we did really like him, because we have enough bonus pool money to lessen the amount another team might save on him, which potentially could float him down.
- Mayo seems to think Smith won't get to #6. That'd be great news for us in terms of getting more of a selection of college bats. They have Montgomery at 7 to the Cardinals and seem to be treating it as a floor for him. Again, no mention at all of the Pirates, but if the board did break where Montgomery fell this far, we have the bonus space to push him past the Cardinals (though maybe not the Angels).
- Callis points out the obvious that it's hard to have the Angels taking Kurtz after just drafting Schaunuel, though he says on talent it could be worth it. He has Yesavage, after whom there's a big drop off.
- Not much talk about the Pirates, just that if Kurtz is there, it makes too much sense, and in this case it would be a conversation about him vs the top two prep players.
- They have Tibbs going at 14 to the Cubs, but both seem to agree that it'd be a surprise if he goes that low. It sounds like Tibbs is a pick to be a potential underslot signing higher in the draft, but it's hard to predict that since there are a lot of other factors in play.
I guess I ended up using this off day to do a crash course refresher on the draft. A lot of the info out there ends up not mapping onto what will happen, as the nature of the draft seems to basically replicate all of this guesswork and uncertainty before the draft, and then afterwards it's harder to remember all the different speculative possibilities that you dream up. Even last year, it was by no means a foregone conclusion that we'd end up taking Skenes, and the year before, my recollection is that very few people thought Baltimore would take Holiday until just before the draft started.
So with all that said, there's only so much wishcasting and guessing we can do. The good news in general is that there are tons of strong college bats and with 8 teams drafting in front of us, it's a fair guess that some of them will be tempted by their top pitcher and/or going with the huge potential of the prep bats (and I think it's nearly a certainty that Colorado will take the guy they think is the best pitcher).
One final scenario I'll add for now is a reunion between Skenes and a guy many of us have enjoyed watching at LSU, Tommy White. Earlier this year, there was plenty of talk of White in the back half of the top 15, but since he plays 1B and is a heavy power approach, it makes sense that he could slide until a certain point. Callis and Mayo have him going 20th to the Blue Jays, but mainly as a landing spot in a huge glut of first round college bats.
McDaniel has him going 30th but says that he has trouble finding a landing spot for him. He says he could go as high as 12th and has landing spots throughout the 20s, and that's as good an illustration as anything about the nature of the MLB draft.
The Pirates second pick is 37th, and so maybe there's a world where we can get Tibbs at 9, even saving a bit of money, and then try to float Tommy Tanks to our second pick if he falls towards the end of the first round. He's good value there, and some think he could stick at 3B, but a likely 1B whose main tool is power is not a guy that teams are going to be in a rush to give their highest bonus to.
In this dreamed up scenario, the main dangerous team is the Diamondbacks, who have a bunch of picks altogether: their first round at 29, their Corbin Carroll prospect pick at 31, and then their comp round pick at 35. McDaniel doesn't really have them linked to White's player type and it makes sense that at least one of these picks would be to target the highest upset prep as possible.
The final caveat here is just that there seems to be buzz we're looking at pitchers for our other high picks, which basically has been the MO in every draft under Cherington with the comp round and/or the second round: Mlodzinski, Jones, Mueth, Barco, Chandler, etc. So the potential of getting a plus hit/plus power OF bat at 9 and then reuniting Skenes and Tommy Tanks for a 1B who would also move very fast is probably the ultimate "I wrongly want the MLB draft to immediately pay dividends for the current MLB team I am watching" approach, but I'll be damned if I wouldn't be thrilled with this pipe dream becoming a reality.
All told, I see a lot of ways for us to end up with a very solid college bat, so I think we got lucky with the draft board. It would be a dream to be able to get Condon, and the fact that he's probably going to go to Cincy and be flirting with 40 HRs in that park is kind of annoying, but given what we need and how the ping pong balls fared for us (maybe only fair after we lucked into Skenes... and it's also worth remembering that the Reds were just as bad as us that year), we're in good shape because if the college bat group were thinner, it might be less of a certainty that any would be worth it at 9.
College bats are often in play in this range, but the general feel I get is that this is a good group of players. It helps our outlook that it doesn't really matter if we are "stuck" with a corner guy, as we could desperately use either a corner OF or 1B. Infatuation with Tommy Tanks aside (though he would obviously be an immediate fan favorite), I think these long draft rants have basically solidified Kurtz for me as 1a for the player I want. While I like the truisms around BPA and athlete, Kurtz just seems like a dream come true for what we have needed for so many years. Middle of the order staple, huge raw power but polished hit tool and strong discipline and command of the zone. To me, the profile is good enough that if we were swapped with the A's, I'd be saying that we just need to go for him even if guys like Caglione and Wetherholt have amazing ceilings. As it stands, I am hoping that he's able to get by the A's pick because if so, I think there's a pretty decent chance he will last until our pick, though it's a bit foolish to feel too strongly about how 9 picks in the MLB draft are actually going to play out.