DJ Spinoza
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2003
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Watched this podcast/mock draft tonight to shake off the taste of that bad loss. I don't know too much about these guys, but they seem to be pretty plugged in with various rumors and speculation (including talking to people who seem to matter). Some notes:
- One new thing they mention that I haven't seen yet is the possibility that the Reds could like 1 of Bazzana or Condon a lot more, and if Cleveland goes for that guy, then maybe they pivot to the college pitcher they like most. This makes some sense as they went for Lowder last year, though there was also a pretty clear group of position players that all went before their pick. That said, if they prefer one guy a lot more, then there's some logic to this in terms of their window and none of the college guys playing a premium position.
- They present it as being unanimous that the Rockies are locked on a pitcher and the A's are locked on a college hitter.
- The Royals are again noted as a wildcard team. They mock Montgomery to him here, but float the idea of a big surprise like Honeycutt being within the realm of possibility. I don't think anything can be ruled out after they took Frank Mozzicato a few years ago. Honeycutt would be a phenomenal guy to see taken ahead of us because I want no part of him at 9.
- They have the Cardinals getting Kurtz here, but present them as basically a team that can sit back and see how the board falls to them. They mention being ok with one of the pitchers if he's there, Montgomery, Wetherholt, etc. This is the sense I have gotten in reading other mocks and it also tracks with their bonus pool not being large, though I'm not sure how much that is going to actually matter for their pick.
- Again with the Angels and college hitter/quick to majors. Here they have Wetherholt because of how the board has unfolded.
- Finally, for us they note that Kurtz or Wetherholt would both be great, but in this mock they aren't available. They also say that if Burns or Smith end up here, it would be intriguing for us, which I definitely agree with. They have us taking Tibbs, noting that he is getting tons of play in the 6-10 range of mocks and rumors.
That basically covers it. There seems to be an implicit sense about a top group of 8 college guys: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Smith, Wetherholt, Montgomery, Kurtz, and Caglione, which obviously makes it a shame that we're picking 9th. That said, Griffin and Rainer probably belong somewhere close to this group, and it doesn't seem like it will take much for one of them to go in the 5-10 range. To me, the White Sox, Cardinals, and maybe the Angels (in a necessary pivot) all make sense for a prep player.
In short, these are the x-factors to keep an eye out for over the next few weeks:
1) Do either of the top prep guys jump into the picks ahead of us? This would be a great thing for us.
2) Does a team like the Royals or White Sox "get weird" with their pick and go with someone not in that group of 8 or even the prep guys? This would be even better, probably the best possible outcome.
3) Exactly what happens with the two pitchers, Smith and Burns? I kind of think this is crucial for Kurtz having a better chance to get to us and/or an unexpected player like Montgomery or Wetherholt to become viable. Somewhat in combination with #2, the possibility of both Smith and Burns going high and then the Angels going for a guy like Yesavage who would move quickly seems like it's within the realm of possibility.
I think the Pirates are in a similar situation as they describe for the Cardinals: able to sit back and see how things break for them. A bat has to be the preference, but in the strange event that an impact pitcher like Burns is there, you figure out the rest later because the value is too good. It's impossible to have too much good pitching. Maybe a guy has a significant injury when Burns is ready to debut in 2026 or so? You can always trade pitching as well.
Personally, it's still Kurtz for me, because there's just no player like that in the system and it would fit so perfectly with what we never seem to be able to find. It potentially allows you to shift your focus entirely to OF help either at the deadline or in the winter, as you could cover 1B with Joe and some other part-time platoon player while Kurtz hopefully moves fairly quick next year.
Montgomery and Wetherholt both seem like perfectly great options who we might not otherwise have a chance at picking 9th if it were not for their injury issues. And Tibbs doesn't really seem like a bad option either, as he's an all around bat who fits comfortably into a corner for us. It might also be worth noting that Tibbs had a good season on the Cape last summer with wooden bats, and that fits with what the Pirates like.
