OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Dull days of July

[ImporterExporter]

I don't think there is any logical reasoning behind it being anyone but Skenes. He literally came into the league with almost no minor league experience and quickly established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Pretty sure his ERA is still the lowest in baseball since he came into the league back in May.

This isn't MVP. Wins and losses should have no bearing on the outcome and as good as Merril has been, he's not among the best hitters in baseball. Not yet. He's have a really good rookie year but it pales in historical comparison to what Skenes is doing.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think there is any logical reasoning behind it being anyone but Skenes. He literally came into the league with almost no minor league experience and quickly established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Pretty sure his ERA is still the lowest in baseball since he came into the league back in May.

This isn't MVP. Wins and losses should have no bearing on the outcome and as good as Merril has been, he's not among the best hitters in baseball. Not yet. He's have a really good rookie year but it pales in historical comparison to what Skenes is doing.

If you go based purely on fWAR, Merrill is at a 4.5 fWAR while Skenes is at a 3.3 fWAR. I don't really think it's much of a stretch to say that Merrill deserves it.

Merrill has a 127 OPS+ with a +8 OAA in CF. I'm not really sure that I'd say that Skenes' amazing performance is clearly above that.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

If you go based purely on fWAR, Merrill is at a 4.5 fWAR while Skenes is at a 3.3 fWAR. I don't really think it's much of a stretch to say that Merrill deserves it.

Merrill has a 127 OPS+ with a +8 OAA in CF. I'm not really sure that I'd say that Skenes' amazing performance is clearly above that.

Skenes has a 5 bWAR and has the second best ERA among any starting pitcher in MLB...

 

[Factorial]

Is this an fWAR vs bWAR war?

 

[MrBrightside]

Is it not correct that it's better for the Pirates if he doesn't win the ROY? Wouldn't him winning cost a year of control?

 

[Fogel]

It shouldn't be a slam dunk either way, I'd be shocked if someone swept the first place votes. Merrill has a higher OPS/WRC+/wOBA/insert batting stat than any Pirate (save Bart in his limited action) and has plus defense in CF since the start of the season while Skenes has been equivalent to Sale/Cy Young worthy since June. I think Skenes not being a position player nor starting the year hurts him because his counting stats aren't as high as they could have been. I guess it boils down to how you value "value": above average performance at a premium defensive position or elite performance at a shorter duration.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Is it not correct that it's better for the Pirates if he doesn't win the ROY? Wouldn't him winning cost a year of control?

I think 2nd place also gives him the service time.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

I think 2nd place also gives him the service time.

Correct. And its a given he will finish in 1st or 2nd place.

Unfortunately the Pirates can't get the PPI pick if he wins the ROY because he didn't start the year with the club.

 

[ImporterExporter]

It's a question of who is more impressive vs their peers. Skenes being in the conversation for best pitcher in baseball resonates more than a guy who probably isn't in the conversation for top 10 OF in baseball yet, let alone vs the rest of the positional player group.

Had Skenes been up from day 1, the fWAR conversation doesn't exist either.

Merrill seems like a great young player but his season is not special enough to overtake a guy who is already pitching as good or better than literally anyone in the game.

 

[WickedWrister]

On sportsbooks, Merrill is around a -550 to -600 favorite, Skenes +350 for what its worth

 

[ChaosAgent]

Correct. And its a given he will finish in 1st or 2nd place.

Unfortunately the Pirates can't get the PPI pick if he wins the ROY because he didn't start the year with the club.

Root for Imanaga to throw multiple no hitters I guess.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Skenes has a 5 bWAR and has the second best ERA among any starting pitcher in MLB...

The only reason Skenes' bWAR is better than Merrill's bWAR is because bWAR using DRS and DRS is an inferior defensive metric to OAA.

Either way, both are completely worthy ROY candidates and it's a shame both are in the same year. I just think it's silly to act like Merrill has no case for the ROY. In any other year, both guys would be winning ROY in a landslide.

It's a question of who is more impressive vs their peers. Skenes being in the conversation for best pitcher in baseball resonates more than a guy who probably isn't in the conversation for top 10 OF in baseball yet, let alone vs the rest of the positional player group.

Had Skenes been up from day 1, the fWAR conversation doesn't exist either.

Merrill seems like a great young player but his season is not special enough to overtake a guy who is already pitching as good or better than literally anyone in the game.

Merrill's OF performance this year is factually top-10 OF in all of baseball. He's there both offensively and defensively, hence why he's 5th in fWAR among OFers this year.

 

[WickedWrister]

6IP 1H 0R 0ER 2BB 10K

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Yes, instead of letting bubba start in pnc they want indy to make the playoffs so the big club gets bull pen games because they want 6 starters

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

Too bad they can't play the Marlins every night.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Too bad they can't play the Marlins every night.

Don't worry, 12-1 loss incoming tomorrow for the Pie-ratz

 

[ImporterExporter]

Bubba Chandler is a big reason why I think this team can win 85-90 games next year. If he, Skenes, Jones, and Keller do what they do and stay healthy you have a rotation that can stick with anyone. That doesn't even include Harrington who has been very impressive himself and should be expected to contribute before summer next year. Mike Burrows should have a shot. Oviedo will be back.

Get this f***ing team an actual manager and hitting coach, and ride the pitching to a playoff berth.

 

[Factorial]

Bubba Chandler is a big reason why I think this team can win 85-90 games next year. If he, Skenes, Jones, and Keller do what they do and stay healthy you have a rotation that can stick with anyone. That doesn't even include Harrington who has been very impressive himself and should be expected to contribute before summer next year. Mike Burrows should have a shot. Oviedo will be back.

Get this f***ing team an actual manager and hitting coach, and ride the pitching to a playoff berth.

Need to fix the bullpen too.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Need to fix the bullpen too.

Don’t most teams really only have 3 guys they like in the pen and the rest rest lr interchangeable

 

[Factorial]

Don’t most teams really only have 3 guys they like in the pen and the rest rest lr interchangeable

That bullpen lost countless games this year.

 

[BusinessGoose]

That bullpen lost countless games this year.

To that end, we need to do a better job of dumpster diving cast-offs to fill our pen.

It's fine to grab a reclamation project off waivers... But if they let in 8+ runs in MULTIPLE chances.. Cut. The. Cord.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

That bullpen lost countless games this year.

I agree with you I am just saying pen arms are fungable and outside of the top 3 whoever they are most teams dfa them if they are not good

 

[ImporterExporter]

The bullpen turned into mostly a dumpster fire, which will happen when its demise is led by a 2 time AS closer flaming out.

But, RP's are the most volatile group in baseball. Bednar is just as likely to rebound and be an AS again next year as he would looking as bad or even worse than today. You can't trade him as his value is shit so might as well hope he can turn it around.

Chapman is gone. I find it hilarious and cements further why Shelton is an asshat, that during the multiple months of Chapmans dominance, he was never moved into the closer role while this team still had a shot. Shelton kept trotting Bednar out there and he kept blowing games, along with Holderman and most everyone else. And THEN, once we're already out of contention, Chapman takes over as closer and has started struggling a bit.

With that being said, we need a sound group as our SP's will be very young next year. Very talented but I'm sure there will be some growing pains and likely an injury or 2.

Personally I'd explore moving Keller for a bat. It would free up significant (for this franchise) money and our line up is in much, much worse shape than the rotation especially accounting for Chandler/Harrington being very close to pro ready.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I don’t think they trade Keller next season i do think they will the following season once they are more comfortable with Burrows Harrington and Bubba

 

[bigdaddyk88]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1833889615612125383