OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Dull days of July

[Empoleon8771]

Damn Puk would have been a nice piece to acquire on top of Chisholm. Oh well, it's not like they need him but he would have been nice to get.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I expect a big part of it comes down to what else is on the table. The Mariners are arguably more desperate than us and also have a better group of prospects to trade from. They are in a dog fight and probably need to win the division to make the playoffs. It's too hard to speculate without know much more specifics, but if their sights are set on Jazz, it's possible that his value gets driven up.

The Mariners have shown themselves willing to trade anyone and everyone at any time, so I can never discount them. That said, why wouldn't they be all over Rooker primarily? They need hitting period and Rooker is the best pure hitter on the market.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The Mariners have shown themselves willing to trade anyone and everyone at any time, so I can never discount them. That said, why wouldn't they be all over Rooker primarily? They need hitting period and Rooker is the best pure hitter on the market.

It's a good question. I think that there might be a bit of intra-divisional tax, and then in addition, it really sounds like the A's might not necessary move anyone.

It sounds a little strange, but if you think about it, the A's have historically not made a lot of pure rebuilding trades. They value floor and depth, and on the MLB roster, they value interchangeable guys and guys who are dirt cheap. Rooker still fills the latter criterion for them.

I think if they got a very strong offer for him, it might change their situation, but for now it actually seems like they may stand pat with Rooker and Bleday.

 

[metalan2]

I wonder who died in Reynolds family?

 

[Empoleon8771]

If they ended up making the move, I'd be very happy with Davis+ for Rooker if they went that route. I just don't think it fills a huge need for the team, but getting a guy who can hit like he does is worth it even if you need to figure out the positions otherwise. That just wouldn't be my primary option.

If they could transition Rooker to 1B, I'd be significantly more interested in him long-term. That doesn't make sense for this year with Tellez on the roster, but going forward I could see that making a lot of sense. Have Reynolds as the DH and Rooker as the 1B, or flip their roles there, is totally worth it.

 

[ChaosAgent]

It's a good question. I think that there might be a bit of intra-divisional tax, and then in addition, it really sounds like the A's might not necessary move anyone.

It sounds a little strange, but if you think about it, the A's have historically not made a lot of pure rebuilding trades. They value floor and depth, and on the MLB roster, they value interchangeable guys and guys who are dirt cheap. Rooker still fills the latter criterion for them.

I think if they got a very strong offer for him, it might change their situation, but for now it actually seems like they may stand pat with Rooker and Bleday.

Speaking of which, I just listened to the Bowden interview.

I think Davis + Ashcraft is too rich for Jazz. One or the other.
But he also said he finds Rooker unplayable in the field and the only place a contender could put him in DH. Sucks and Rooker is costing himself tens of millions of dollars being unplayable, but a team with an entrenched DH like Cutch can't do it.

 

[ChaosAgent]

If they ended up making the move, I'd be very happy with Davis+ for Rooker if they went that route. I just don't think it fills a huge need for the team, but getting a guy who can hit like he does is worth it even if you need to figure out the positions otherwise. That just wouldn't be my primary option.

If they could transition Rooker to 1B, I'd be significantly more interested in him long-term. That doesn't make sense for this year with Tellez on the roster, but going forward I could see that making a lot of sense. Have Reynolds as the DH and Rooker as the 1B, or flip their roles there, is totally worth it.

We're all chatting on this excitedly. Good to see.

I think if we get Rooker we're basically pushing Cutch out of the team in 2025 and making Rooker our DH. I mean maybe we give him the off-season to learn a position but he hasn't done it yet despite being plenty incentivized.

I guess Davis has a path to play in Oakland/Vegas if/when they move Langeliers who is a better player than Davis is. It isn't as clear & obvious as Miami who has nothing, zilch, nada at catcher.
I suppose Davis could go to Colorado since they will move Elias Diaz but we don't have a good fit with them outside of a Hayes for McMahon swap. It would be funny if Davis/Stallings became the catcher duo in Colorado though.

I was trying to think of a Hayes + Davis for Ryan McMahon + OF swap but there's actually not a single OF from Colorado that is interesting and acquirable. I guess you could do Hayes + Davis for McMahon + pay 30% of McMahon's contract. In a vacuum moving Hayes for McMahon makes us much better but I don't want the $16M/year McMahon is owed to prevent us from extending Skenes.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The Rockies have put it out there that they aren't trading McMahon. Could always be misdirection but I think they are just going to trade Diaz and maybe a random pitcher or something.

All roads lead back to Jazz for me. He fixes centerfield, adds speed we don't have, and has enough offense to be a meaningful contributor no matter what, while also having the upside for more if we can unlock it. I'm just going to be repeating those sentiments until Tuesday or I am blue in the face, whichever is first.

I do think a chunk of the deal that makes sense would include high upside young players, and not only immediately ready players. Jim at NS9 had a proposal of Ashcraft, Delgado, and Kennedy and I think that tracks value-wise.

Delgado has been hitting the ball very well, which makes the Brubaker trade (which I and I think others were not enthused about) look very good in the early going. He's got the profile of a guy who could pop and burn you, but he's 20 and at least 3 years away probably. Similarly, a pitcher like Kennedy or Meuth might be tracking well right now, but those guys are far enough away that you can stomach it if they break out in 3-4 years. They could equally go the way of Brennan Malone and never reach the upper minors.

Ashcraft is a good pitcher who is hitting his stride this season. If it took including him to get it over the finish line, I'd be fine with it. He's good depth and might be a valuable mid-rotation stalwart, so I don't think it's a simple call, but if Miami wants the balance of somewhat more secure floor included, you can live with it. People pointed out that this is 3 of our top 20/25 prospects or so, which is true, but it preserves most of the pitching depth and our overall system is not quite as strong as what it once was, so this might be in the vicinity of the value.

The only caveat is that Ashcraft and Kennedy specifically are injured currently, so they might need to be PTBNL. And there are comparable guys, if they wanted to switch in Meuth, and if they wanted to pick from Ashcraft, Harrington, Barco, Burrows, I'd be fine with it. I'd probably want to keep Johnson and certainly Chandler out of the deal if the bidding got high, but I don't think it would get that high.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Rooker just keeps hitting homers. Guy is on some heater right now. He'd be a great #4 behind Cruz and Reynolds. Don't think the A's are moving him though.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1816669186372043157

This doesn't have anything specific, but does confirm that we are scouting Jazz and also mentions we are scouting Bryan De La Cruz.

Nothing about De La Cruz leaps off the page. He basically gives you a slightly below average bat with some legitimate pop, but he's not really a great defender. That said, it's a little bit tempting to view the situation as a one stop shop for our outfield woes. You can do worse than De La Cruz hitting somewhere like 6th or 7th, and he would also work well in a platoon with Palacios or Suwinski. Given that it's unlikely we shop for a corner OF in free agency (and there don't seem to be many), acquiring both doesn't strike me as the worst idea.

 

[td_ice]

Yeah, Chisholm would not surprise me. I heard Shelton say recently on theFAN (on the Derek Shelton show) that we need help at CF offensively. He admitted that MAT is great defensively, but that neither he nor Jack were cutting it offensively. From what I have heard from him in recent weeks, he speaks fairly earnestly.

Now the next part could be simply misdirection, or not wanting to make headlines, most likely the latter. But when the topic was catcher, the question was, "with the year that Bart is having, is he making a case that he could be "the man" at catcher? His answer; "he certainly is." He expounded on Bart, but that lead to the next question.

If Bart is possibly making his case at the job, does that mean Henry Davis could be traded for something of need? Shelton; "NO. Henry is going to be a big part of our future." Then he talked about patience and how it takes awhile to find yourself and that they are going to give him that time. Could be he feels exactly that way, but also, what else is he going to say? If they might want to trade him, he isn't going to tip their hand.

GMBC recent interview I heard, "don't be surprised if there are teams, perhaps rivals, both fighting for post season, make a trade with each other. Each from their position of strength." Signal to possibly moving Chapman??

Also I didn't hear this one directly from GMBC, but relayed from theFAN. "I could make a trade right now, At any time. It just doesn't make sense right now. When it does, when it makes sense, we will do it." So basically saying the prices are just too hight right now.

 

[ChaosAgent]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1816669186372043157

This doesn't have anything specific, but does confirm that we are scouting Jazz and also mentions we are scouting Bryan De La Cruz.

Nothing about De La Cruz leaps off the page. He basically gives you a slightly below average bat with some legitimate pop, but he's not really a great defender. That said, it's a little bit tempting to view the situation as a one stop shop for our outfield woes. You can do worse than De La Cruz hitting somewhere like 6th or 7th, and he would also work well in a platoon with Palacios or Suwinski. Given that it's unlikely we shop for a corner OF in free agency (and there don't seem to be many), acquiring both doesn't strike me as the worst idea.

I have always liked BDLC in a scouting sense but his production and value is meh. Theoretically Olivares was a similar player and he underwhelmed here and is now toiling away in Indy for the rest of the year.

Of course I would take BDLC but I wouldn't give up much. Id peg his value as similar to Suwinski's at this point

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I have always liked BDLC in a scouting sense but his production and value is meh. Theoretically Olivares was a similar player and he underwhelmed here and is now toiling away in Indy for the rest of the year.

Of course I would take BDLC but I wouldn't give up much. Id peg his value as similar to Suwinski's at this point

Yeah it's not really an exciting profile other than some cheap HRs, but I think that's what he does offer above Olivares. He has actually produced in MLB over multiple seasons. He's not really what you want in the corner on a contender, but we are so bad that it doesn't strike me as worth turning our nose up at it if he would come relatively cheap along with Jazz.

As a solo acquisition, it would make little sense unless we went and got a CF from elsewhere, especially since BDLC is bad defensively.

But with the production, I feel like you can maybe squint and see him + a revamped Jack giving you a platoon of 30-35+ HRs, which is not nothing.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1816692878598382026

The stove is hot!

Maybe this lessens the chance they go for Jazz.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1816696903779647756

7 and 21 on the newest Mariners FanGraphs list, but they point out that Hopkins is rising fast and the most exciting prospect in their system. Mariners people seem to make it think like it was tough for them to give him up.

With a PTBNL too, hard to say more without seeing who that is. But I think this tracks with Jazz costing something like Jim Rosati's proposal of Ashcraft, Kennedy, and Delgado on NS9 earlier. Maybe an additional piece, or if they liked Harrington more, etc. A little tricky to compare because Jazz plays the harder position, but Randy has more of a track record, including in the playoffs. They both have 2.5 years of control.

I think this should eliminate any ambiguity that the cost would be too prohibitive for us, if we simply define that as keeping Chandler and Johnson out of a deal. Neither of those guys is close to Chandler or Johnson, and we can find comparable ones in our system.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Its hard to pinpoint equavalent prospects but it appears a guy like Kennedy or Mueth would be similar to Hopkins so hopefully it sets a deasonable limit on the OF market

 

[MrBrightside]

Does anyone really trade their top 5-ish prospects anymore if it's not a Juan Soto kind of deal? I think the idea that we'd have to deal Davis or even Ashcraft for a middling corner OF or even Chisholm is 2004 thinking rather than reflective of the current marketplace. I'm sure someone will point to a recent trade where a jobber got a team's #3 prospect or something, but that's very much the exception in the current market. John Smoltz for 9 starts of Doyle Alexander just doesn't happen these days.

 

[OnMyOwn]

I feel like Robert is the only guy you’d even consider moving someone like Johnson for. I’d move any of our like #6-20 prospects in a Jazz trade. I’m glad the deadline is close, now, so we can actually see if anything positive is done.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I bet Arozarena's high arbitration salaries had a lot to do with his diminished return. The arbitration process basically anchors on the prior year's number. Arozarena will go 8 this year --> 12 next year --> 16 in '26 regardless of performance.

Chisholm will come much cheaper and this I expect the price to be higher.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Also I like Thomas Harrington more than Hunter Barco, but not "2 10-20 ranked prospects" more. If including Harrington or Ashcraft is the thing that gets a deal for Chisholm or Paredes done, let's do that.

NGL though, if we could get Lane Thomas + Winker for Barco and 2 promising A ballerz I am all over that

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

I bet Arozarena's high arbitration salaries had a lot to do with his diminished return. The arbitration process basically anchors on the prior year's number. Arozarena will go 8 this year --> 12 next year --> 16 in '26 regardless of performance.

Chisholm will come much cheaper and this I expect the price to be higher.

Yeah thats a factor for sure, but some teams not liking Jazz’s personality also limits his market.

I wouldnt be surprised if Jazz’s return is similarish.

Peguero
Mueth or Kennedy
White Jr

Would be where my offer starts

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah I think that's in the ballpark. The x-factor for me is that the public prospect tools are only so good for estimations. I think the standardized FV-talk is by and large helpful for the game, since obviously it helps fans sort through prospect ranked X in system X with some more context.

That said, I really think MLB teams have a lot more dynamism in their player evaluation. One thing that stands out is player level, and accomplishments at that level vs ceiling.

No matter how it's sliced though, the Pirates have prospects who are equivalent to the Mariners prospects in this deal. The chatter about the PTBNL is that it will be someone decent, but even granting how great Seattle's system is, this is a deal that strikes some kind of blow but nothing major.

In fact, I'm not sure it's worth going here, but if Chicago wants to just hit the reset button now, it really makes you wonder if Chandler and Johnson would be the cornerstone of the most competitive offer they receive. It would be closer to going all-in for the Pirates to give up those two, but I kind of think going all-in is warranted. The major question for me, if we even want to broach this topic, is whether there will be better players to try and go all in on next summer etc.

Regardless, Jazz should be well within the cards. There is no excuse not to get a controllable bat.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1816874672866173227

1) What the hell kind of trade is this?

2) Baltimore is presumably acquiring Pache as a cheap defensive option for center field. I would take a swing at Cedric Mullins in a heartbeat. I doubt it would be that popular of a move, but if you are not giving up too much for him, it's a good calculated risk IMO. He's hit at a solid clip over the past two months and will be in a contract year next season.

I like Mullins more than most, if I were to guess, though the only reason I'm not totally gung-ho is that it would make Jazz make a lot less sense. Jazz is way more valuable in CF than anywhere else for us. I suppose you could do something like put Jazz or Mullins in left and slide Reynolds to right, but it seems likely that if we were to acquire a guy like Mullins, we would not be in on Jazz.

Having said that, getting Mullins and someone like Winker as a rental, or Lane Thomas as a slight buy low, would be savvy and not too costly of moves. Ultimately I think the focus should still really be on Jazz -- you are buying potential big upside there. But it's worth bearing in mind that Jazz has kind of cooled off offensively lately. He can be streaky, though, so it's still possible that you get the best version coming out in August and September.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the Hays trade with Baltimore is mostly about getting reliever depth while moving out one bench piece for another bench piece. Hays has been completely surpassed on the depth chart with Cowser and Santander, so they don't really need him anymore. I think Hays is already in his arb years so that just gives them extra incentive to move him.

2024 Trade Value: Nos. 1-10

We saved the best for last, because that’s how the series works.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Skenes comes in at #3 as the most valuable trade assets in baseball right now, with this quote making me feel extra good:

The odds have never been this good, though. Skenes is a rookie. He’s probably the best pitcher in baseball right now. He theoretically has six more years of team control after this one, though if he finishes in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting, you can lop that down to five (hence the asterisk in the table above). The point is, he costs roughly nothing, he’ll be around for forever, and there is no one better than him at what he does right now. It’s not like the thing he’s best at is niche, either. It’s literally PITCHING.

He's a dozen games into his pro career and he's already the best pitcher in baseball. That's absolutely wild.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I guess #1 is a bit of an overreaction. That trade makes sense for both teams. Philly already has Rojas as a defense-only guy and the platoon bat helps them. My guess is they would be thrilled to ditch Castellanos, have a Hays/Marsh platoon, and then add somebody like Robert.