OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Dull days of July

[DJ Spinoza]

I think the equation with Chapman becomes simpler the more winning we do this week. Right now, the division is in play and Chapman is in his best form of the season.

I don't think it's an absolute, automatic "no" to trading him, but if you do, you either get an overpayment or you get the need-for-need type trade where you are somehow acquiring the corner OF, controllable piece that you need now and in the future (hard to think of a match there).

For example, if the Orioles wanted to trade you a top-100 prospect like Dylan Beavers, then you just make the trade and take the PR hit by hyping up how good Nicolas has been or whatever. That kind of return would be too good to turn down for a rental.

But if it's just decent prospect depth to add to the system generally, there's no point. If you make the playoffs, having these starting pitchers along with Chapman and Bednar is absolute and total hell for any opponent. It's quite literally as close as you can get to 1-0 series lead on paper.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think the idea I have is that they have a set limit on how much money Nutting is allowing them to spend on payroll, so they could reinvest that $2.8 million in bats if they move Perez. Which is enough to get you both Thomas and Chisholm for the rest of the year, although their arbitration situation in 2025 complicates things a bit.

You'd get some low level 18 year old minors prospect for Perez but then use the money cleared up to add a bat or two without actually increasing the payroll of the team.

I don't think they are over their internal payroll limit, or their internal payroll limit in the case they were going for it. Like in 2012, the equivalent year, they added Wandy Rodriguez at the deadline. Money in.

With Chapman above all, it was:
A) Easily movable contract in the event we were out of it
B) A guy who was guaranteed to net a 40+/45 FV prospect. Even if he kept sucking, he's still Aroldis freaking Chapman, he's still throwing 102 and many contenders would still bring him in to finish innings against left-handed hitters. We were kinda buying a prospect with Chapman worst case

None of the guys we are talking about would break the bank.

But if it's just decent prospect depth to add to the system generally, there's no point. If you make the playoffs, having these starting pitchers along with Chapman and Bednar is absolute and total hell for any opponent. It's quite literally as close as you can get to 1-0 series lead on paper.

Not to mention that Mlod has been disgusting lately. Holderman is also "slumping" but could become an ace reliever again very quick.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Well, Mets won, so they got sole possession of WC3 now, we're kicked out

ARZ might tie the Mets up there if they win tonight too

But... For fifteen minutes, the Pirates were in the WC... AFTER the All-Star Break!

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Well, Mets won, so they got sole possession of WC3 now, we're kicked out

ARZ might tie the Mets up there if they win tonight too

But... For fifteen minutes, the Pirates were in the WC... AFTER the All-Star Break!

Keep winning and we will be in a playoff spot soon enough

 

[ImporterExporter]

Huge win tonight. Tellez is a great example of why you need to give players some rope to figure shit out. If he doesn't make that play defensively, we lose. After he flipped to Keller, I said to my GF, we just won the game. Sometimes you just "feel" it.

As much as we're hyped on Skenes, let's please remember, at some point, he's going to get tagged. Might be tomorrow, but it's bound to happen at some point. The postseason won't be decided by tomorrow. With that being said, I expect a win. Already feel that when big papa toes the rubber.

On another topic.

We should be very excited about the organizational pitching strides made under Cherington.

This is a major improvement under the last regime, who found some success in buying cheap veterans (Liriano and Burnett come to mind right away) and getting the maximum production given their cost and age.

But the actual development of minor leaguers and young arms was putrid. Few reached their ceilings and then turned around and turned into dominant #1 types upon leaving in short order (Cole, Glasnow).

Consider Cherington drafted:

Skenes (1.1 - 2023) - unicorn who was not pegged to us by almost every expert last year up until draft day, so again, I'm giving Ben and his team credit for making what should have been the easiest pick since Harper and Strasburg. A franchise altering addition.

Jones (2.44 - 2020) - Strider-esque stuff, the command out of the gate was surprisingly great, after being just solid throughout the minor leagues. If the command/control remains plus moving forward and the arm holds up, he's essentially a #1 pitching in the 2 or 3 spot for us.

Bubba Chandler (3.72 - 2021) - Our current top prospect, he should be a consensus top 50 player league wide if things hold as they are. As DJ mentioned, it would be very tough to see him traded and the player coming back better be controllable and cheap or relatively so. I wouldn't move him for anyone mentioned on the market right now, unless you're talking someone like Skubal, who is a pipe dream for a team like ours. Chandler's a midseason 2025 call up if things break the way we hope.

2024 #'s (AA - Altoona)

Thomas Harrington (CB-36th - 2022) 23 years old- Hard not to see him coming in as our #2 pitching prospect given he's 1.5 years younger than Ashcraft and throwing extremely well in AA. I'm very impressed by his command which stands out for a guy having his 1st taste in the upper minors. 4 HR's against is a fantastic stat, he's been just as impressive as Chandler. Given he's spent the entire year at AA, it's hard not to see him getting a cup in AAA before the year out, or at least certainly starting there to begin 2025, with a summer call up in the works if all goes to plan.

2024 #'s (AA-Altoona)

Hunter Barco (2.42 - 2022) 23 years old - Some people were miffed at picking a guy who had just undergone TJ surgery but before his arm went at Florida, the arrow was pointing up according a lot of evaluators so we obviously took a gamble on him recovering and building off what scouts saw. Fast forward to July 2024, and he's been mighty impressive in a very hitter friendly league, seeing a promotion to Altoona just yesterday, where he got off to a great start. He should finish the year in Altoona, begin there in 2025 but get a quick call to Indy if he gets off to a hot start. A lefty arm is something I'd love to see added to a playoff rotation.

2024 (A+ - Greensboro w/1 start yesterday at AA - Altoona)

Zander Mueth (CB-67 - 2023) 19 years old - Can't say that I've seen him pitch given he's spent his first year in rookie ball, but the numbers are certainly encouraging. Rookie ball isn't exactly telling for future success, but I don't see anything that is alarming, other than needing to work on bring the walk rate down, which is true of every kid coming out of HS and most coming out of college. He's not getting hit hard, sub .200 BAA, just 1 HR given up, and better than 9K/9 over nearly 50 innings. Would be surprised to see him not get a start or 2 up in A ball before the year is out.

2024 (Rookie Ball)

Patrick Reilly (5.140 - 2023) 23 years old - Like Barco, he's posted strong numbers in a very hitter friendly league, The control needs to improve but he's already showing vast improvements from the very uneven career he had at Vandy.

2024 (A+ - Greensboro)

This doesn't include Ashcraft (2018) and Burrows (2018) who are both still viable prospects, especially the former.

Solometo is a name everyone knows, and while he's struggled this year in AA, let's not forget the cat is 21 and hasn't really been healthy. Long way to go before we know whether his struggles are long term. Before this season he was a projectable #3 or 4 and posting more than respectable numbers at every stop.

We also should keep an eye on guys like Michael Kennedy, Carlson Reed, Kristian Curtis and just drafted names.

Mitch Keller wasn't drafted by Cherington, but his people got him to where he is now, which is a strong #2 and passable 1.

Luis Ortiz is showing good things, again, developed under the new regime. Preister is slowly improving, still only 23. Bailey Falter was huge for us when the rotation was in the pre-Skenes days. Marco Gonzales has been respectable when healthy.

I don't care for Shelton or Haines. Those are both on Cherington directly, and the results thus far, are subpar, to say the least. I'm willing to ride this out and see how far we can get, but the sole focus should be maximizing our window with Skenes. That includes getting the best baseball people managing the players on the ground level.

If we can just get the offensive development on par w/the pitching, the postseason will be a regular occurrence.

 

[metalan2]

Huge win tonight. Tellez is a great example of why you need to give players some rope to figure shit out. If he doesn't make that play defensively, we lose. After he flipped to Keller, I said to my GF, we just won the game. Sometimes you just "feel" it.

As much as we're hyped on Skenes, let's please remember, at some point, he's going to get tagged. Might be tomorrow, but it's bound to happen at some point. The postseason won't be decided by tomorrow. With that being said, I expect a win. Already feel that when big papa toes the rubber.

On another topic.

We should be very excited about the organizational pitching strides made under Cherington.

This is a major improvement under the last regime, who found some success in buying cheap veterans (Liriano and Burnett come to mind right away) and getting the maximum production given their cost and age.

But the actual development of minor leaguers and young arms was putrid. Few reached their ceilings and then turned around and turned into dominant #1 types upon leaving in short order (Cole, Glasnow).

Consider Cherington drafted:

Skenes (1.1 - 2023) - unicorn who was not pegged to us by almost every expert last year up until draft day, so again, I'm giving Ben and his team credit for making what should have been the easiest pick since Harper and Strasburg. A franchise altering addition.

Jones (2.44 - 2020) - Strider-esque stuff, the command out of the gate was surprisingly great, after being just solid throughout the minor leagues. If the command/control remains plus moving forward and the arm holds up, he's essentially a #1 pitching in the 2 or 3 spot for us.

Bubba Chandler (3.72 - 2021) - Our current top prospect, he should be a consensus top 50 player league wide if things hold as they are. As DJ mentioned, it would be very tough to see him traded and the player coming back better be controllable and cheap or relatively so. I wouldn't move him for anyone mentioned on the market right now, unless you're talking someone like Skubal, who is a pipe dream for a team like ours. Chandler's a midseason 2025 call up if things break the way we hope.

2024 #'s (AA - Altoona)
View attachment 896371

Thomas Harrington (CB-36th - 2022) 23 years old- Hard not to see him coming in as our #2 pitching prospect given he's 1.5 years younger than Ashcraft and throwing extremely well in AA. I'm very impressed by his command which stands out for a guy having his 1st taste in the upper minors. 4 HR's against is a fantastic stat, he's been just as impressive as Chandler. Given he's spent the entire year at AA, it's hard not to see him getting a cup in AAA before the year out, or at least certainly starting there to begin 2025, with a summer call up in the works if all goes to plan.

2024 #'s (AA-Altoona)
View attachment 896372


Hunter Barco (2.42 - 2022) 23 years old - Some people were miffed at picking a guy who had just undergone TJ surgery but before his arm went at Florida, the arrow was pointing up according a lot of evaluators so we obviously took a gamble on him recovering and building off what scouts saw. Fast forward to July 2024, and he's been mighty impressive in a very hitter friendly league, seeing a promotion to Altoona just yesterday, where he got off to a great start. He should finish the year in Altoona, begin there in 2025 but get a quick call to Indy if he gets off to a hot start. A lefty arm is something I'd love to see added to a playoff rotation.

2024 (A+ - Greensboro w/1 start yesterday at AA - Altoona)
View attachment 896384


Zander Mueth (CB-67 - 2023) 19 years old - Can't say that I've seen him pitch given he's spent his first year in rookie ball, but the numbers are certainly encouraging. Rookie ball isn't exactly telling for future success, but I don't see anything that is alarming, other than needing to work on bring the walk rate down, which is true of every kid coming out of HS and most coming out of college. He's not getting hit hard, sub .200 BAA, just 1 HR given up, and better than 9K/9 over nearly 50 innings. Would be surprised to see him not get a start or 2 up in A ball before the year is out.

2024 (Rookie Ball)
View attachment 896410


Patrick Reilly (5.140 - 2023) 23 years old - Like Barco, he's posted strong numbers in a very hitter friendly league, The control needs to improve but he's already showing vast improvements from the very uneven career he had at Vandy.

2024 (A+ - Greensboro)
View attachment 896413


This doesn't include Ashcraft (2018) and Burrows (2018) who are both still viable prospects, especially the former.

Solometo is a name everyone knows, and while he's struggled this year in AA, let's not forget the cat is 21 and hasn't really been healthy. Long way to go before we know whether his struggles are long term. Before this season he was a projectable #3 or 4 and posting more than respectable numbers at every stop.

We also should keep an eye on guys like Michael Kennedy, Carlson Reed, Kristian Curtis and just drafted names.

Mitch Keller wasn't drafted by Cherington, but his people got him to where he is now, which is a strong #2 and passable 1.

Luis Ortiz is showing good things, again, developed under the new regime. Preister is slowly improving, still only 23. Bailey Falter was huge for us when the rotation was in the pre-Skenes days. Marco Gonzales has been respectable when healthy.

I don't care for Shelton or Haines. Those are both on Cherington directly, and the results thus far, are subpar, to say the least. I'm willing to ride this out and see how far we can get, but the sole focus should be maximizing our window with Skenes. That includes getting the best baseball people managing the players on the ground level.

If we can just get the offensive development on par w/the pitching, the postseason will be a regular occurrence.

I often think that about Skenes, but he has already had a few "bad" starts for him that ended up being losses. So it's not like we win every game when he starts. We win most, like we should with a generational pitcher.

 

[WickedWrister]

How's that work anyway with the new rules? I read there are no play on games, but tie breakers, right?

H2H record is the first tiebreaker, but it gets a little more complicated when it's multiple teams.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Why the Orioles Could Trade Kyle Stowers

He doesn't get as much attention as the Orioles' other prospects, but Kyle Stowers is a clear trade candidate. Read more at MLB Trade Rumors.

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Here's a late night shot in the dark. I didn't realize that Stowers was 26 and will be 27 in the offseason. That's definitely a borderline prospect and it's a little surprising that Baltimore hasn't given him some consistent run at some point, even though they really don't have much room and as the writeup notes, Kjerstad has a higher ceiling.

To me, this looks like a guy that they'd want to dangle in trade conversations, but I'm not totally sure he'd be attractive in potential high return deals such as Crochet or Skubal. Maybe as a third player, but I think other players would be involved instead.

Baltimore needs some pitching, both in the rotation and in the bullpen, and both in 2024 and beyond. They make for a good trading partner but it would need to be a creative deal. I think there could be some options here, such as for example one of Holderman, Nicolas, or Mlodzinski. Another option would be someone like Priester, but I think the cheap, controllable RP could be an angle that makes sense.

Stowers is probably a system OF for them, a guy who is solid depth to have but that's it. Relievers can be fungible from year to year, nevermind injury. Stowers might not develop into an everyday corner OF, but the tools are there. He's comfortably above average in the minors, the Ks are not too bad, he takes walks, and he has the power for 20-25 HRs. I'd be fine with it for Priester or even a guy like Harrington.

This is a lot of words for rampant speculation, but I think this is the kind of outside the box shot that would be worth taking in some form. Of course, there's also the straightforward possibility of dealing Chapman for him, and I wouldn't totally hate that, but thinking of the playoffs, I'd rather trade the controllable player than the guy who is a lockdown 1-2 combo with Bednar at the moment.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Id maybe be okay losing Nicolas... I think he's the scariest in relief

I know we need bats and pitching is our only thing we have worth trading... But it's also what's kept is in a lot of games so that our anemic bats have a chance to win.

Feels risky to start chipping away at that good cornerstone and hope some dude comes in and outweighs a decently strong bullpen with a couple extra base hits maybe...

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Trading anybody on the current roster when trying to make a playoff push feels like a dicey proposition, though I am also just totally shooting in the dark with rampant speculation. I'd be shocked if we ended up with Stowers, just kinda thinking out loud.

I think the bigger question is Chapman. Unless you acquire a player who contributes right away, trading him sends the wrong message to the team that management doesn't believe they can make a run this year. It could only be counteracted with a pretty sizeable bat acquisition.

Put slightly different though, even with an upgraded bat, we are likely set up to need to win close games like tonight. We could go on a crazy 12-game run or something and every game would still have playoff-like urgency to it given how many teams are bunched up. We'll see at the end of the weekend, but I think we are close to the point that any Chapman deal would need to bowl you over or present a controllable OF in return.

I always just return to Jazz. I get some of the reservations people have with him -- the OPS isn't crazy, the defense isn't extreme plus, etc., but he'd be an injection of more energy a la Palacios, gives you that extra speed threat to cause chaos, and in principle should not cost your top prospects (I even heard Stumpf today saying on a podcast that the Rooker cost would be higher, and the comments Oakland is making anyways sound like they won't move him). It's just the no brainer move to root for IMO, unless you want to go crazy ceiling and cost and shoot for Robert. Either of those moves is management saying we can win now, we can win in 2025, and we can win in 2026.

 

[Mr Jeff Jimerson]

Trading anybody on the current roster when trying to make a playoff push feels like a dicey proposition, though I am also just totally shooting in the dark with rampant speculation. I'd be shocked if we ended up with Stowers, just kinda thinking out loud.

I think the bigger question is Chapman. Unless you acquire a player who contributes right away, trading him sends the wrong message to the team that management doesn't believe they can make a run this year. It could only be counteracted with a pretty sizeable bat acquisition.

Put slightly different though, even with an upgraded bat, we are likely set up to need to win close games like tonight. We could go on a crazy 12-game run or something and every game would still have playoff-like urgency to it given how many teams are bunched up. We'll see at the end of the weekend, but I think we are close to the point that any Chapman deal would need to bowl you over or present a controllable OF in return.

I always just return to Jazz. I get some of the reservations people have with him -- the OPS isn't crazy, the defense isn't extreme plus, etc., but he'd be an injection of more energy a la Palacios, gives you that extra speed threat to cause chaos, and in principle should not cost your top prospects (I even heard Stumpf today saying on a podcast that the Rooker cost would be higher, and the comments Oakland is making anyways sound like they won't move him). It's just the no brainer move to root for IMO, unless you want to go crazy ceiling and cost and shoot for Robert. Either of those moves is management saying we can win now, we can win in 2025, and we can win in 2026.

Jazz Chisholm Jr is a career sub .250 hitter and is hitting sub .250 this year. He doesn't make our team better.

 

[MrBrightside]

Jazz Chisholm Jr is a career sub .250 hitter and is hitting sub .250 this year. He doesn't make our team better.

Evaluating a player based on his batting average alone is not really good analysis. I don't know that he's a difference maker, but he's better than Suwinski and Bae and Taylor and Olivares and Palacios the other cast of crap we are running out there in CF and RF. As with any move, the devil is in the details and the cost of acquisition will make the move work or not, but the fact he's hitting .249 this year and has a career batting average of .246 is about the 20th consideration.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Evaluating a player based on his batting average alone is not really good analysis. I don't know that he's a difference maker, but he's better than Suwinski and Bae and Taylor and Olivares and Palacios the other cast of crap we are running out there in CF and RF. As with any move, the devil is in the details and the cost of acquisition will make the move work or not, but the fact he's hitting .249 this year and has a career batting average of .246 is about the 20th consideration.

Jazz is below average defense cf and 2nd baseman who has only played 100 games once since 2021. He was voted most overrated player by other mlb players

 

[ChaosAgent]

Jazz is below average defense cf and 2nd baseman who has only played 100 games once since 2021. He was voted most overrated player by other mlb players

Yes because he was on the cover of a video game and viewed as a star when he is just an above average player.

But he is still an above-average player.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Yes because he was on the cover of a video game and viewed as a star when he is just an above average player.

But he is still an above-average player.

If he was an above average player then teams would be lining up to trade for him. He would be the clear 2bd best bat on the trade market behind often injured Roberts

 

[OnMyOwn]

Then he’s a perfect pirate target. I dunno what’s hard to see about this, haha.

I’d rather get Robert, but Jazz is way more attainable.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Odd thats there is so little smoke for really anyone this close to the deadline.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Jazz Chisholm Jr is a career sub .250 hitter and is hitting sub .250 this year. He doesn't make our team better.

As others are pointing out, he's 26, can play an adequate centerfield, and is comfortable a 20 HR / 20 SB guy with the upside of something closer to 25 HR / 30-35 SB. He also draws walks at a solid enough clip to justify having him bat leadoff despite not having a high average, though .250 is plenty passable in 2024 MLB (all the signs point to most teams not really caring about batting average in any case).

The bigger question is his K-rate, which has flirted around 30% before but is down to a more palatable 25% this year. If that ticks higher than 30, the profile is less appealing, but it's probably a decent bet that he has a further gear to unlock the potential, if he stays healthy, at some point in his 27 and 28 year old seasons.

If he was an above average player then teams would be lining up to trade for him. He would be the clear 2bd best bat on the trade market behind often injured Roberts

It's partially a question of fit and need. The Phillies could use another OF bat, but the Marlins are a divisional team and likely make them pay more. Ditto for the Braves, but it seems like they'll just stand pat now given that this really doesn't seem like their year after Strider and Acuna got hurt.

Robert is also way better than him, because Robert is a better defender and has a lot more power, so it makes sense that the attention of top contenders will be focused there. The Yankees could go for Jazz as a second baseman, I wouldn't rule it out.

Either way, by simply looking at WAR, he's a comfortably above average everyday player. If for some reason we want to ignore that easy stat (he's pretty solidly a 3-win player, which is basically the definition of above average but not quite star level), then the power-speed combo is enough to get him there IMO. The average defense and health questions hamper his value, that is definitely clear, but if he's on the field, he's above average and there's upside for more.


For the record, I am entirely fine with paying the huge cost for Robert and just planting a flag vs the rest of the league, but 1) I don't think there's a chance in hell that the Pirates would pay those prospects and 2) I don't think we could outbid the Orioles, and perhaps the Mariners or Phillies either. The mantra and approach with Cherington has been about building a sustainable winner, and to be able to say you are doing that, you can't move multiple top-5 prospects unless you have a bonkers system like Baltimore does.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Where's this idea that Chisholm is below average defensively in CF? He's at exactly neutral OAA this year and was at +4 OAA last year. He's a perfectly solid defensive CF.

I don't think Chisholm is nearly as good as his insane 2022 season, but he's a guy that should give you league average or better offense and CF defense while being a major base stealing threat.

If he's healthy, he'll slash like .250/.320/.430 while putting up 20 HRs and 30 SBs with solid CF defense. What's the problem there? He's not this star player, but he's an absolutely solid regular who can lock down the CF position for the next few years.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Odd thats there is so little smoke for really anyone this close to the deadline.

I think it's mainly a function of how few sellers there are in addition to the fact that Crochet and Robert will cost a lot, and Skubal will probably cost even more.

Robert Murray and others seem to think that the final 48 hours will be when we see movement, but I guess that's always the case.

I'm just guessing with this, but I think the x-factor teams are probably the Jays, Rangers, and Rays. All of them could sell in some capacity but it seems like the Jays might just want to stand totally pat (or sell low on Gausman) and the Rays and Rangers are still in reasonable striking distance from the playoffs.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Get Chisholm for 2b, move Gonzo to 3rd and waive goodbye to Hayes. I am perfectly ok with this.

 

[WickedWrister]

Jeff Passan TDL article, has us in the "trying to thread the needle" category

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I wonder if we'd consider moving Priester as a kind of sell high attempt. His Ks have ticked up slightly this year, he's had MLB success in limited innings. Still just 23 so it's not like he's outliving his prospect status.

I might actually be hesitant to do it, since Priester has the frame and pitch mix to be a workhorse starter in the rotation. We don't exactly need huge ceiling with Skenes already in place and Keller firmly being a #2-3 type. If Priester is a 4.25 ERA guy who gives you 6 innings more often than not, that might be a sleeper clutch player to have and another feather in the Cherington/Marin organizational pitching hat.

But if you could snipe one of the Baltimore OFs, it would be a tempting idea. I mainly bring it up because I'd kind of see us preferring to keep Falter, since he was Cherington's guy to go and seek out. I don't think selling high on Falter would be a bad idea either, but hard to imagine since he maybe gets one start before the deadline though likely not even that due to the injury/rehab.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Basically, nobody knows anything, and the team isn't in position for the national media to really care wholesale.....yet (hopefully).

 

[Empoleon8771]

Right now, my goal for the deadline is Perez, Suwinski and Olivares out and Chisholm and Winker in. Winker is also awful defensively so he’s not a long-term fit, but he’s replacing 2 other OFers who are awful defensively so it’s not as problematic.

My hope is that they’d end up with:

1. Chisholm (CF)
2. McCutchen (DH)
3. Reynolds (LF)
4. Cruz (SS)
5. Winker (RF)
6. Tellez (1B)
7. Gonzales (2B)
8. Hayes (3B)
9. Bart (C)

Bench: Joe, Taylor, Grandal and Triolo

For a defensive sub, I figure Reynolds slides to RF, Chisholm slides to LF and Taylor gets put in at CF. I forgot that Palacios was up for Olivares already, it would suck to not have a spot for Palacios but I don’t really see one if they’re bringing in Chisholm and Winker.