OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Dull days of July

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NewAgeOutlaw

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For some reason a split in this series feels like a loss :(

Imo the team being like 3 to 5 games under .500 all season is worse than the team being terrible.

They are within the margin now where competent ownership and spending to win could actually make the difference.
 

td_ice

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Aug 13, 2005
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For some reason a split in this series feels like a loss :(
Yeah, agreed. We have to keep piling up the series wins, especially against a team in front of us in order to make up ground. Treading water isn't going to cut it.
 

DJ Spinoza

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They needed the series split. It's pretty much been the same story for several weeks now, where we are easily in winnable games and most of the time the offense fails to perform, with an occasional bullpen blowup from either Chapman going crazy or the bullpen just being too taxed. Then instead of a free fall, we scrap enough games to still stay relevant.

The loss to the Cardinals hurt because they now have some clear daylight between us, and we are more to the outside looking in with the WC race than firmly within it. But the thing is close enough that things could still shift by the all star break. I really do not think anybody is good enough to truly run away with things, with the only real exception of the Phillies and Dodgers, and I would include the Brewers in that group unless they just go into a total free fall and lose 8-10 straight or something.

To salvage this stretch of games in a positive way, we pretty much need to win the series vs the Brewers and then sweep the White Sox. That would actually pull us to exactly .500, but I am not holding my breath about us being able to do that, for probably obvious reasons.
 
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ImporterExporter

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We've got a lot more pitching coming. This draft coming up should be heavily focused on replenishing the offensive ranks, which is weak, even with Termarr turning his season around. If there is one thing Cherington has seemingly been hitting on through the draft, it's SP. Need a couple of winning bats out of this draft ideally.

Chandler looks like he could be another Jared Jones. He's shoving in AA at 21. Ceiling is #1 but we don't even need that. Anything above #3 production is gravy, given we already have Skenes, Jones, and Keller.

Solometo is scuffling and shut down but he's still just 21 and doesn't turn 22 until December. Even if this year is a loss, still too early to give up on him being a legitimate starter.

Thomas Harrington might be having as good a year as Chandler, currently in AA, about to turn 23.

Braxton Ashcraft is now in AAA and blanking folks. This after a superb 2023 and start to this year. He's 24.

Hunter Barco is having a great year in a hitters league (Greensboro). People might gloss over him but he had considerable upside coming out of Florida and the results after the TJ surgery in 2022 look good. 23 years old.

Patrick Reilly was a Vandy guy with electric raw stuff but little command. That's coming along and he's having a strong showing as a 22 year old in Greensboro. I could see him making for a dominant back end bullpen arm if he can't stick as a starter.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Marlins are expecting to trade Chisholm and the Pirates are listed as one of the leading candidates. Will be livid when the Pirates don't end up paying for him.
Don't mean this as a nitpick to you, but I think it's worth noting that Mish is still more speculative in the article, just noting that we could be one of the main candidates. It's kind of splitting hairs, and I did see someone say that Robert Murray said that he had no direct intel but also that he believes the Pirates will try to add at least one bat.

MLBTR also had a weird writeup on him, suggesting that he could be a fit at 2B and even CF even though it seems obvious we'll keep playing Gonzales as much as possible and also that Jazz hasn't played on the dirt in a while.

I think he makes too much sense, so we are in full agreement that it will be annoying if he goes elsewhere. He's an interesting case, because it's possible that it might not take _that_ much to get him. He has some injury history, and he's not a plus defender in CF, though he's also not a liability there. He's the kind of player who provides very solid production especially relative to innings played in CF (i.e., even if you still employ a defensive specialist for some occasional late innings shuffling).

He also probably has another gear, especially since he's 26, if he can stay healthy. I think he's really probably the best option in terms of someone who fits an immediate and near-term need. We have plenty of depth to be able to make this trade, and even if we want to nitpick whether he's ideal, I don't see better options in free agency or via trade. An outside the box guy who is breaking out (and much better defensively) is Brenton Doyle, but I doubt the Rockies would really want to entertain them, even if they match up better as a team that always needs pitching.

Pitching prospects being mainly what we have to headline a deal is the one place where I am less sure if the Marlins are a great fit, but for all of the reasons above, I hope we do make a strong push. I've been vocal about liking Ward, but I think Jazz is more preferable as a younger guy who offers multiple years of control. Ward makes a little bit more sense if we are actually closer to the hunt. I wouldn't turn my nose up at either, but like (I think) most of us, I expect us to do nothing much besides maybe sell Chapman and make a minor trade or two.
 

NewAgeOutlaw

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It is the most Pirates thing ever that the offense is killing the team and the only hitter they are rumored to be looking at is a career 2% better than league average hitter.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I find the comments in here to be somewhat bizarre. I'm not going to go as far as to say that Perrotto made them up, because I have never seen him to be that kind of guy (as opposed to some of the uncredentialed bloggers who will just say whatever to get reactions), but the comments don't really strike me as things front office members would say and also don't really ring true regardless.

For starters, there's no way to look at the previous offseasons and conclude anything but that Cherington failed. You can find bargain players who signed elsewhere and would have presumably been better here than players we signed (you can never know this for sure, but it's fair to assume that they would have similar production in different circumstances).

It also doesn't really add up that payroll matters much for trade deadline acquisitions. Sure, Robert or Chisholm or someone would add a real salary to the books for the next two years, but neither guy is even making what Chapman currently makes, and we are almost certainly going to trade Chapman this year anyways (and not pay him the rest of his salary). The players who would be salary additions are guys like Bell, who aren't even going to get traded unless they are paid down, and I doubt we are interested in a reunion given that Rowdy woke up anyways.

I dunno, I am still glad to see this because 1) I hate Nutting like any rational person and 2) I dislike the front office strongly. It reads as the same old thing everyone thinks about the Pirates repackaged as a vague story for now. We'll see if anyone else picks up on it. I think bad publicity towards the FO and ownership is a good thing.... 2024 looks like a big failure given the enormous opportunity with the pitching.
 

BusinessGoose

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"The understanding when Cherington was hired was that the Pirates would eventually no longer annually be among the bottom five teams in player payroll. Yet five years into Cherington’s tenure, the franchise is 29th in the league in payroll."

“Ben in is a tough spot in Pittsburgh but he doesn’t say anything because he’s not an excuse maker,” said one of the sources, who has a longstanding relationship with Cherington. “He’s a good baseball man and a bright guy but he’s not able to do the job the way he needs to do it in Pittsburgh. His hands are tied. You can win without spending a lot of money now and again. but you can’t win when you spend no money.”"

Hmmmmm. So. BC is desperate for a job he's just gonna sit in the corner and fail instead of say they need legit pro quality players and that's gonna cost pro quality money?

I don't think there was any other plan but not to spend money. And they're all in on it.
 

NewAgeOutlaw

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That article is 100% Cherrington using the rightful hatred of Nutting to deflect criticism.

I don't believe for a second that he was under the impression that the Pirates would increase payroll when he came here. If he did believe it he is a mark and too stupid to be a general manager anyway.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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The problem is that they did spend money before, even if only in the most measly of possible ways, and the main "spending" that can be done in the coming weeks is prospect capital. We know that Nutting has given certain mandates to GMs (like when Huntington was forbidden from rebuilding), so Nutting should never be given the benefit of the doubt about anything, but I still find the article kind of strange.

Cherington also doesn't really deserve any benefit of the doubt, though. He was a loser in Boston when he spent money hand over fist and he's been a loser here.

I still find it to be a bit bizarre in how it's written. It's hard to pick up on exactly what the implication is because it leans into tropes that everyone already knows about the team. Perotto has also seemed like someone with an axe to grind in recent years, so at least for me, I am going to wait and see if anyone connected more to the day to day comes out and says anything.
 

NewAgeOutlaw

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“Ben in is a tough spot in Pittsburgh but he doesn’t say anything because he’s not an excuse maker,” said one of the sources, who has a longstanding relationship with Cherington. “He’s a good baseball man and a bright guy but he’s not able to do the job the way he needs to do it in Pittsburgh. His hands are tied. You can win without spending a lot of money now and again. but you can’t win when you spend no money.”

The intent seems pretty clear to me. The source is either Cherrington's stooge or his mother. Nutting is the perfect target if you are a gm trying to deflect blame for a team that is treading water at best.

And yes, both parties are terrible.
 

ImporterExporter

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If Nutting (and his political lackeys) is undoubtably the reason for the shitty front office (he is), then what difference does it make what GM is running the program?

Cherington and his team have done a plus job in drafting IMO. Davis seems like the biggest possibility of being an outright bust, but that ship hasn't sailed completely. But the arms we have up now and still to come are shining brightly. That's directly tied to Cherington and company.

You can say Skenes was an easy pick but a lot of people, on this board no less, were clamoring for Crews up until draft day and he didn't even have the concrete best season in college in 2023 (hitting wise). This year multiple players surpassed his totals. And what has Crews done? Posted very middling #'s for a player of his hype, to this point. Maybe he'll bust out the higher he climbs but the shine on him is nonexistent next to Skenes now.

So Skenes should be viewed as a franchise altering win. Jared Jones might not be on that level, but his emergence his huge for the long-term viability. Mitch Keller wasn't drafted by BC but certainly developed under his watch and hires. Look at the rest of the arms coming which I highlighted yesterday. It's not exactly a small list of long shots.

Gonzo (2020) seems like he'll be at least a solid regular moving forward which is a plus. Johnson (2022) is turning around his year (he seems like a very slow starter) in A+ ball and should be in Altoona by the end of the month if he keeps up the current pace. The ceiling is still pretty high (great on base, good pop) for him, even if we're not looking at a .300+ type hitter long term.

The problem with BC is the FA spending has been a mixed bag (this year has almost universally sucked) and the trades of any importance, have also failed to produce much in the way of positivity but let's not pretend they've all been awful. And let's also not pretend that Cherington has had the same financial rope (payroll going north of 100M) to maneuver.

We've brought in (via trade) legitimate ML players in Bednar (AS), Oviedo, Holderman, Suwinski, Joe, and Endy Rodriguez is still a bright young player, hopefully someone who will solidify the C spot next year and beyond.

Tyler Anderson was a good signing.
Quintana was a good signing.
Cutch was good for what we paid and what we're getting
Falter has been fantastic much of the year.
Tellez may end up being a plus depending on how the rest of the year goes. Started horribly but he's been studly the past month.

I absolutely believe with a better manager and hitting coach (philosophy) this team is 3-4 games over .500 rather than under right now.

I'm not absolving Cherington. If we don't finish on a high note, and make the wild card, he should be on the chopping block. He's had half a decade, and we haven't had a winning season but let's get real. His tenure hasn't been all bad. Shelton (and Haines) are bigger problems currently. Zero doubt in my mind.

But the reality is our rotation is already playoff contending good and I'd wager Skenes, Keller, Jones is absolutely good enough to front a WS winner and 2 of those were Cherington picks. He also got our best offensive player, Reynolds, locked up. Same with Keller.
 

metalan2

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May 30, 2008
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I really like Josh Palacios. He can eat a depth outfielder for us any day.
He's our second best hitter currently and second best outfielder. He was last year too. Id imagine we'd have 5-7 more wins if he started over Suwinsky this year.
 

Empoleon8771

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Aug 25, 2015
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We've brought in (via trade) legitimate ML players in Bednar (AS), Oviedo, Holderman, Suwinski, Joe, and Endy Rodriguez is still a bright young player, hopefully someone who will solidify the C spot next year and beyond.

This completely glosses over what Cherington gave up for those guys. Want to argue Nutting is a bigger issue? That's fair for sure, but let's not re-write Cherington's awful trade history with the Pirates.

Look at these trades:

-Marte for Peguero and Malone
-Bell for Yean and Crowe
-Musgrove for Bednar, Head, Fellows, Cruz and Rodriguez
-Taillon for CSN, Yajure and Escotto
-Frazier for Suwinski, Marcano and Miliano
-Holmes for Castillo and Park
-Stallings for Nicolas and Scott
-Anderson for Bins and Tejada
-Vogelbach for Holderman
-Quintana and Stratton for Oviedo and Nunez
-Castro for Falter

There is FAR more bad here than good, which is shown in their WAR numbers:


 
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