Still no FanGraphs day of mock, which I am looking forward to because Eric always seems as plugged in as anyone.
I'd really like the stars to align and Montgomery to fall in our lap. I have seen a couple people concoct scenarios where Caglianone drops, but I think it's tricky. Step 1 would be Bazanna not going #1, which seems like a coin flip but has decent possibility. Step 2 would be the White Sox go with a prep player, which I think does have a viable shot.
Him getting out of the top-5 does seem like much more of a possibility now than it has for the past few weeks. If that happens, things get interesting, because it's not clear exactly where Caglianone's floor is. Honestly, with his chase rate, I don't even know if we'd take him, but I also can't imagine we had thoroughly considered he'd be there because he really does have huge star upside.
Kansas City is a huge wild card, as they could take him, but they are also closely linked to Rainer as well as Smith. If Burns goes 3, Griffin goes 5, and Rainer goes 6, then all of Smith, Caglianone, Montgomery, and Kurtz would be there headed to picks 7-8-9. My sense is that the Cardinals are another wild card, but Smith seems like the kind of player they'd pick, and Caglianone doesn't, though they are also a team that doesn't often get a chance at a talent like Caglianone.
LA seems like the perfect landing spot for a falling Caglianone, because they definitely need potential star power. That said, he's nowhere nears as polished as guys like Schaunel and Neto, so it's likely he wouldn't rush into the majors, but you never know with this team. They are as big or bigger of a wild card as KC IMO.
In any case, I game this all out because I think there's a small chance that Caglianone does slide. I think the circumstances are also there so that Montgomery could slide a little bit (it would be less notable in his case, since he's more clustered in the 5-10 range where there's lots of uncertainty). The way I am reading the late rumors, it's the two high school talents who might go in that 5-8 range. I think there's a decent chance that neither is available when we pick. The lack of true up the middle players in the college group combined with the eventual upside of both prep guys is what makes me settle on that.