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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Dull days of July

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Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

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I actually really do not mind them trying Cruz in CF. I am skeptical it works for similar reasons that Polanco didn't work, but it's an absolutely worthwhile gamble with who else they have in the system.
 
Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

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Looking at Cruz's defensive metrics, I'm actually a bit more confident that he can work out in CF than I was before. If you look at Cruz's defensive metrics this year, he's generally good coming in (+3 OAA) and okay at going back (-1 OAA) but is really bad at laterally moving towards 1B (-6 OAA). I think this is easily seen with his errors, it's almost always him running to field a grounder going up the middle and he just yanks the throw. You'll take out that issue pretty much entirely with moving him to CF.

It's a "no shit Sherlock" comment, but how well he does in CF depends on how well he can track fly balls. He clearly has the athleticism to cover huge ground if he can track fly balls even a bit okay, which he has shown okay results at SS doing. But CF is a whole different animal with that.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:
Looking at Cruz's defensive metrics, I'm actually a bit more confident that he can work out in CF than I was before. If you look at Cruz's defensive metrics this year, he's generally good coming in (+3 OAA) and okay at going back (-1 OAA) but is really bad at laterally moving towards 1B (-6 OAA). I think this is easily seen with his errors, it's almost always him running to field a grounder going up the middle and he just yanks the throw. You'll take out that issue pretty much entirely with moving him to CF.

It's a "no shit Sherlock" comment, but how well he does in CF depends on how well he can track fly balls. He clearly has the athleticism to cover huge ground if he can track fly balls even a bit okay, which he has shown okay results at SS doing. But CF is a whole different animal with that.
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I would hope that they worked on those skills for weeks before making that move... especially considering that Shelton said today that from now on they view him as a CF.
 
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Cruz in CF has a chance to be even juicer than Polanco in front of the Clemente wall....low IQ player with penchant for concentration lapses in CF....WTF could go wrong!?!
 
DJ Spinoza

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I hope I am wrong but I find it hard not to see this as a disastrous decision. Cruz makes extremely above average plays defensively at shortstop and has some dumb highlights when the athleticism is too much. For the errors and negative defensive value that he brings, it's balanced out by the superlative range and the fact that he has improved in the routine plays with his first year in the majors, as well as the bat tradeoff.

His weakness seems to be reading balls in the air.

I don't really see another angle other than the Pirates are too cheap and out of options to find something for CF next year and beyond. Maybe this is them admitting defeat on Suwinski, but I worry that the end result here has the risk of being catastrophic.

IKF is also not really a plus defender at SS. If the bat holds up at the current rate, it's not the worst, but man, everything with this team has gone to total and absolute shit.
 
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Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

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DJ Spinoza said:
I hope I am wrong but I find it hard not to see this as a disastrous decision. Cruz makes extremely above average plays defensively at shortstop and has some dumb highlights when the athleticism is too much. For the errors and negative defensive value that he brings, it's balanced out by the superlative range and the fact that he has improved in the routine plays with his first year in the majors, as well as the bat tradeoff.

His weakness seems to be reading balls in the air.

I don't really see another angle other than the Pirates are too cheap and out of options to find something for CF next year and beyond. Maybe this is them admitting defeat on Suwinski, but I worry that the end result here has the risk of being catastrophic.

IKF is also not really a plus defender at SS. If the bat holds up at the current rate, it's not the worst, but man, everything with this team has gone to total and absolute shit.
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I just watched all of the errors that Baseball Savant had available (only 13 of 24 this year) and I don't really agree with this. He does have a few errors when going back and trying to read the ball in the air, but his biggest problem is that he just absolutely yips throws especially when moving laterally to his left. He is also a really sloppy fielder, he has a couple of botched ground balls as well.

Based on direction, Cruz has a +3 OAA forwards, -1 OAA backwards, 0 OAA towards 3B and -6 OAA towards 1B this year. Cruz does have great range, but it's negated out with his wild arm (especially when needing to rotate his body to make a throw) and inconsistent fielding. From that POV, I actually think CF makes more sense for him than SS. All Cruz needs to do in CF is to be able to track fly balls at an okay level and rely on his elite speed to cover a lot of ground. You're taking out at least the issue of those yipped throws by putting him in CF.

From those clips, about half of them are throwing errors where he's moving laterally towards 1B (5 of 13). The remaining errors were tracking fly balls behind him (3 of 13), fielding errors moving towards 3B (3 of 13) and fielding errors moving towards 1B (2 of 13). He is clearly worse moving laterally to his left than any other direction, which is a pretty big issue for a guy playing SS.
 
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ChaosAgent

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I hope they talked to Cruz about this before foisting it on him. On paper, it makes a ton of sense. He has elite speed and an elite arm, and the throwing tips are not as important in CF. In practice, he is volatile. And we will suffer as a team with him back there for some time.
 
DJ Spinoza

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Empoleon8771 said:
I just watched all of the errors that Baseball Savant had available (only 13 of 24 this year) and I don't really agree with this. He does have a few errors when going back and trying to read the ball in the air, but his biggest problem is that he just absolutely yips throws especially when moving laterally to his left. He is also a really sloppy fielder, he has a couple of botched ground balls as well.

Based on direction, Cruz has a +3 OAA forwards, -1 OAA backwards, 0 OAA towards 3B and -6 OAA towards 1B this year. Cruz does have great range, but it's negated out with his wild arm (especially when needing to rotate his body to make a throw) and inconsistent fielding. From that POV, I actually think CF makes more sense for him than SS. All Cruz needs to do in CF is to be able to track fly balls at an okay level and rely on his elite speed to cover a lot of ground. You're taking out at least the issue of those yipped throws by putting him in CF.

From those clips, about half of them are throwing errors where he's moving laterally towards 1B (5 of 13). The remaining errors were tracking fly balls behind him (3 of 13), fielding errors moving towards 3B (3 of 13) and fielding errors moving towards 1B (2 of 13). He is clearly worse moving laterally to his left than any other direction, which is a pretty big issue for a guy playing SS.
Click to expand...
It's possible. I'm not going to go to the mat to say that Cruz is a good defender at SS because the eye test and numbers say otherwise.

It just feels like a very bizarre thing to up and announce randomly for the last month of the season. I guess we want to get a look at him and then maybe re-assess.

It really feels like an offseason thing and that either we are trying to force his hand or we are just so desperate and already know that there's no other solution at CF for 2025.
 
ChaosAgent

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Empoleon8771 said:
I just watched all of the errors that Baseball Savant had available (only 13 of 24 this year) and I don't really agree with this. He does have a few errors when going back and trying to read the ball in the air, but his biggest problem is that he just absolutely yips throws especially when moving laterally to his left. He is also a really sloppy fielder, he has a couple of botched ground balls as well.

Based on direction, Cruz has a +3 OAA forwards, -1 OAA backwards, 0 OAA towards 3B and -6 OAA towards 1B this year. Cruz does have great range, but it's negated out with his wild arm (especially when needing to rotate his body to make a throw) and inconsistent fielding. From that POV, I actually think CF makes more sense for him than SS. All Cruz needs to do in CF is to be able to track fly balls at an okay level and rely on his elite speed to cover a lot of ground. You're taking out at least the issue of those yipped throws by putting him in CF.

From those clips, about half of them are throwing errors where he's moving laterally towards 1B (5 of 13). The remaining errors were tracking fly balls behind him (3 of 13), fielding errors moving towards 3B (3 of 13) and fielding errors moving towards 1B (2 of 13). He is clearly worse moving laterally to his left than any other direction, which is a pretty big issue for a guy playing SS.
Click to expand...

The reason why Cruz throws the ball comically hard sometimes is he is afraid of yipping it throwing "normal."

It is clear that he has demons. But also CF is really hard and I don't want this to mess up his offense.
 
GilbertSeinfeld

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He could become the next Alfonso Soriano with the move to the outfield and throw out a bunch of runners who don't trust he can throw the ball accurately and will test him.
 
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It's not just the raw totals that suck regarding Cruz. The eye test shows him to run hot and cold when it comes to effort. The baserunning blunders have been numerous. Situational baseball is not a strong suit of his and it shows regularly w/the eye test.

And him being shifted to CF is just more evidence this franchise has no f***ing idea what they're doing. There is no real plan in place and worst of all there is seemingly zero accountability considering no one has been fired after 5 years of losing.
 
ChaosAgent

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BTW, I also 100% think DJ's points that they are conceding defeat on other options in CF is valid.

They can't feasibly put Bae or Suwinski out there and say they are trying. Virtually no one is available on the market - maybe Bleday?

If they invest in a bopper in the infield it will have been worth it. But it's the Pirates soooooo
 
Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

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DJ Spinoza said:
It's possible. I'm not going to go to the mat to say that Cruz is a good defender at SS because the eye test and numbers say otherwise.

It just feels like a very bizarre thing to up and announce randomly for the last month of the season. I guess we want to get a look at him and then maybe re-assess.

It really feels like an offseason thing and that either we are trying to force his hand or we are just so desperate and already know that there's no other solution at CF for 2025.
Click to expand...

I think this is probably it, they're seeing if he's even viable as an option before deciding if he's going to spend the entire off-season preparing to play the OF.

At the same time, Cruz's defense now is no different than what it has been in the past, so I don't understand why they're deciding to try it out now. Frankly they should have been exploring position flexibility with Cruz far before now, it makes it even riskier now because he's starting to reach his upside as a hitter. Him learning a new position may screw with his bat, just like I think it did with Davis.

It's a move that I support trying out, but it also shows this organization is a mess and can't plan for shit.
 
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Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

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WickedWrister said:
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Cherington actually does give a good response here IMO, basically "we wanted to give him a chance to be at least average and he couldn't do it". They're just going through the other positions now to see what positions he can play and give at least decent defense.

It is a bit odd because I don't think Cruz has been horrible defensively this year. He hasn't been good (-3 OAA), but cleaning up either the fielding errors or yips with the arm would make him at least average defensively IMO. At the same time, he has been at SS over his entire career and he's about to turn 26. At what point is it "this guy is done improving here"?

He has played 4732 innings in his career at SS and still struggles with fundamentals like "fielding a ground ball" and "throwing accurately to 1st base" for MLB standards. I don't really blame the Pirates for basically saying "okay, this isn't improving like it needs to be improving".
 
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