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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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Empoleon8771 said:
What's the point of keeping him until the deadline? The team is going to suck this year. Why risk Reynolds decreasing his value by keeping him in a lost season?

Their options are to extend him, trade him now or trade him sometime in the future. The correct solution is extending him, but if they won't do that, there is no benefit for keeping him and waiting to trade him.
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Question 1: Why do you assume his value goes down between now and the deadline? He is far enough away from FA that these extra 3 months mean very little.

Question 2: if you think his value is going to go down, presumably based on performance...why so gung ho on extending him?

I'll hang up and listen to your answer.
 
DocEmrickSkitters said:
Question 1: Why do you assume his value goes down between now and the deadline? He is far enough away from FA that these extra 3 months mean very little.

Question 2: if you think his value is going to go down, presumably based on performance...why so gung ho on extending him?

I'll hang up and listen to your answer.
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What are you talking about? I'm saying there is literally no benefit for keeping him until the deadline if you're going to trade him.

What's the benefit for keeping him until the deadline instead of trading him now? You're speaking as a fan of Reynolds here, you're not being pragmatic or unbiased here. If they're going to trade Reynolds, trading him right now, when there is no risk of him decreasing his value and his value is astronomically high, is the objectively right decision. Keeping him until the deadline has very little upside, because his value isn't going to go up, and has risks with injuries and regressing play.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
What are you talking about? I'm saying there is literally no benefit for keeping him until the deadline if you're going to trade him.

What's the benefit for keeping him until the deadline instead of trading him now? You're speaking as a fan of Reynolds here, you're not being pragmatic or unbiased here. If they're going to trade Reynolds, trading him right now, when there is no risk of him decreasing his value and his value is astronomically high, is the objectively right decision. Keeping him until the deadline has very little upside, because his value isn't going to go up, and has risks with injuries and regressing play.
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The Pirates are willing to trade Reynolds right now, today.

But they have a price. We have inklings what it is. Julio Rodriguez, Meyer/Watson + from the Fish, etc. Teams are offering probably something like what the As got for Matt Olson. Not good enough.

Zillow used to have a feature called Make Me Move. Like, I'm not listing my house but if you blow me away with this price I'll sell it to ya. You're asking them to just list Reynolds already because of your natural impulsivness/impatience.
 
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DocEmrickSkitters said:
The Pirates are willing to trade Reynolds right now, today.

But they have a price. We have inklings what it is. Julio Rodriguez, Meyer/Watson + from the Fish, etc. Teams are offering probably something like what the As got for Matt Olson. Not good enough.

Zillow used to have a feature called Make Me Move. Like, I'm not listing my house but if you blow me away with this price I'll sell it to ya. You're asking them to just list Reynolds already because of your natural impulsivness/impatience.
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No, I'm saying trading him now makes sense because there is literally no benefit for waiting if they're going to trade him. This has nothing to do with "impatience", it has to do with looking at Reynolds as an asset at its absolute peak value. Reynolds' value is only going to go down. Even if he stays healthy and plays as well as he did last year, his value will decrease due to him having fewer years of control.

If you trade him right now, you can almost definitely get a ludicrous package with pretty much no risk. If you keep him, your chances at getting a ludicrous package doesn't really change, and you add the risks of Reynolds regressing or getting hurt. It's a no brainer. There is no objective argument for waiting to trade Reynolds unless the Pirates are somehow not getting peak offers for Reynolds right now.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
There is no objective argument for waiting to trade Reynolds unless the Pirates are somehow not getting peak offers for Reynolds right now.
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"There is no objective scenario for waiting to trade Reynolds aside from the scenario which is almost assuredly taking place."
 
Empoleon8771 said:
So basically, they shouldn't trade him right now because of something that none of us have any way of knowing.

Gotcha
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Wow! They can trade Reynolds today for a package including Weathers and Paddack!

Holy sh1t let's do it. Let's also dump all our equities on March 16, 2020 while we're at it (sorry to go all Pixies on you, but wasn't this you lol. Or like you wanted to but your parents had to talk you down etc...good for them if so)


You think his value can only go down. I disagree.
First - if he sustains his 2021 level of performance his value goes up. Reynolds is still not a known quantity in the game. He was not a heralded prospect; never a top-100 guy. He had a terrible 2020. Etc. Repeating his performance last year will increase his value over and above losing 3 months of control over a 4 year time span.

Second: the market. At the TDL certain needs may become more apparent and teams may be willing to part with pieces they otherwise wouldn't. Same reason why some players have higher value at the deadline in the NHL. When you think a guy is putting you over the top the calculus changes.

Third and this is outside of value: Cherington's plan is to build this team internally, show gradually more success and excitement which will drive ratings and butts-in-seats and persuade Nutting to incrementally invest. At the time of that inflection point Cherington may or may not want to prioritize keeping Reynolds around. But he wants to wait and see how things develop. And I'm not a Cherington Stan compared to others here (Gallatin, IE, etc.) but I think that's a fundamentally sound plan. He is willing to deviate from the plan with Reynolds if he gets Abrams/Gore/Paddack. Or if he got Julio Rodriguez last summer. Or if he got the package the White Sox got for Chris Sale - top 5 guy in all of baseball plus a guy with Glasnow minor league numbers and stuff.

But he isn't trading him for the Matt Olson deal. Is that what you want? The dopamine hit of the trade notification above all else? Because that's in the ballpark of what we're being offered Emp.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
What's the point of keeping him until the deadline? The team is going to suck this year. Why risk Reynolds decreasing his value by keeping him in a lost season?

Their options are to extend him, trade him now or trade him sometime in the future. The correct solution is extending him, but if they won't do that, there is no benefit for keeping him and waiting to trade him.
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Cause you still have to sell tickets and you know at most he will cost you 10 million next year in arbitration and that’s if he doubles his 4.5 million he will get this year. You will have a better understanding of Swaggerty Cruz Hayes Castro Castillo Martin CSN Frazier and if they are really the core. Is Tucker still hitting by then
 
Quickly watching some of the pitches on Fubo...

I like Thompson. He'll be solid this year.
 
Setting aside specific names, I think it's pretty straightforward with Reynolds: you don't win a trade when you are the team sending a player of his caliber unless you actually hit on receiving 2+ everyday players with one of them being an impact guy. I hate to lapse into cliches, but it just is the case that most prospects don't amount to anything. Sometimes when prospect chatter pops up, I think people lose sight of the fact that a guy who is a 50FV player is someone who, with a good outcome, looks like Gregory Polanco -- no disrespect or hot take intended, but 2ish WAR for multiple seasons.

The attrition with prospects is just that high.

With that said, I still tend to think that someone like Adams is a caliber of _prospect_ that usually isn't dealt, and likely would be higher than most headliners. Reynolds has the talent / control / age / position to break with this kind of mold, but it still remains to be seen. It's also probably worth emphasizing that teams value players in different ways than what we get with even the best public-facing stuff.

I'm pretty pessimistic. The Pirates' actions speak louder than any words, and their action not to bring up an extension this winter screams pretty loudly. They could be slow-rolling it and pivot later, just as they could drag their feet until they see whether they get a package they want or enough time goes by that they pull the trigger on a so-so deal. I think that's probably where we're heading in 1-1.5 years, but no sense making any predictions. I don't put any stock into Nightengale though I do think Preller is the kind of guy who could try and make a big deal like this happen.
 
bigdaddyk88 said:
Cause you still have to sell tickets and you know at most he will cost you 10 million next year in arbitration and that’s if he doubles his 4.5 million he will get this year. You will have a better understanding of Swaggerty Cruz Hayes Castro Castillo Martin CSN Frazier and if they are really the core. Is Tucker still hitting by then
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Okay, how does any of this have to do with Reynolds?

Whether it makes sense to trade Reynolds depends entirely on what his trade value is, if they won't extend him. Who cares how guys like Swagerty and Frazier look? That has no bearing on whether trading Reynolds makes sense.

Gallatin said:
Why?
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Because the team sucks and Reynolds being elite on a bad team is wasting his talents. Keeping him for a year or two will very likely just hurt his value, seeing how he'll have fewer years of control, will cost more money and may be dealing with declining play and/or injuries at that point. What's the upside there? The team will still suck.

They should be trying to extend him so he'll still be here when the team finally becomes good again, but it's painfully obvious they don't intend on doing that.
 
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Gallatin said:
Why?
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I feel like Emp is very riled up on this one for no reason.

Barring all hatred of Nutting etc., since the CBA did not meaningfully change the service-time structure there is no urgency to move Reynolds now.

As I said. If the Pads offered Abrams/Gore/Paddack Reynolds is probably a Padre tonight. But they aren't, so he isn't.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:
Okay, how does any of this have to do with Reynolds?

Whether it makes sense to trade Reynolds depends entirely on what his trade value is, if they won't extend him. Who cares how guys like Swagerty and Frazier look? That has no bearing on whether trading Reynolds makes sense.



Because the team sucks and Reynolds being elite on a bad team is wasting his talents. Keeping him for a year or two will very likely just hurt his value, seeing how he'll have fewer years of control, will cost more money and may be dealing with declining play and/or injuries at that point. What's the upside there? The team will still suck.

They should be trying to extend him so he'll still be here when the team finally becomes good again, but it's painfully obvious they don't intend on doing that.
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If your Reynolds who doesn’t reach free agency until your 31 and you are under control through 2025 what deal do you sign that gives up free agency years. Do you take a 6/75 Marte got in Arizona. The development of other OF and young players allows me to know exactly what I need to get back in a trade for Reynolds.
 
Reading into the whole situation optimistically, cause I like Thursdays:

The team needs to show some sort of improvement for Nutting to begin opening up the purse-strings.
They shock-contended in 2011. Completely imploded but did trade for Derrek Lee (a total diva about being here) and then later Burnett.
Then really, really contended in 2012 which got Nutting to get Martin and Liriano. Great moves by Huntington.

My reading is this. If the team performs and fans show up/revenues go up the purse strings will begin to loosen. That will be not being a D to Reynolds in next year's arbitration. Maybe it's a huge money extension to Cruz. But most importantly it will be PAYING FOR PITCHING which is what is desperately needed since we don't have enough internally.
 
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bigdaddyk88 said:
If your Reynolds who doesn’t reach free agency until your 31 and you are under control through 2025 what deal do you sign that gives up free agency years. Do you take a 6/75 Marte got in Arizona. The development of other OF and young players allows me to know exactly what I need to get back in a trade for Reynolds.
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I would easily go to something like 7 years, $130 million without a problem. If you can get him for the Marte contract, it's an even more no-brainer. The problem is Nutting won't do that.

The contracts I've thrown out as what I would call "reasonable" are:

-5 years, $75 million. This buys up 1 UFA year
-6 years, $100 million. This buys up 2 UFA years
-7 years, $130 million. This buys up 3 UFA years

I'd probably go for the third option, with year 7 being an option year and structuring the money something like:

-Year 1: $9 million
-Year 2: $12 million
-Year 3: $18 million
-Year 4: $18 million
-Year 5: $18 million
-Year 6: $25 million
-Year 7: $30 million (option year)
 
I'm intrigued on Zach Thompson. If he could somehow be a 4ish ERA, inning eater and Keller replicating that give or take, I think we'll win at least a handful more games than last year. Obviously you need people to step up and that will fall on those 2, Wilson, Quintana, and Yajure.

Also intrigued on Yoshi. He's swinging a nice bat this spring, and after what we got out of him last season, you can't help but have a little bit of excitement as a middle of the order thumper. Obviously no one is expecting AS numbers but he definitely has pop and it would be nice to see a guy push 30 homers hitting behind Reynolds.

Speaking of Reynolds, I'm just done with all the speculation at this point. He's not going to be resigned and if he is traded, it had better be for a ridiculous haul. There is no grey area for me. I've seen other similiar caliber players with less control bring solid returns. If this is another Gerrit Cole trade where we give up a star with many years of control for scraps, I'm done. I'll be gone entirely until Nutting is removed or the team relocated.

I think this team has a shot to win 70-75 games. The division isn't that good and we at least have a little bit more intrigue than 2021. Really going to come down to pitching. What are we getting out of these ? marks.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
I would easily go to something like 7 years, $130 million without a problem. If you can get him for the Marte contract, it's an even more no-brainer. The problem is Nutting won't do that.

The contracts I've thrown out as what I would call "reasonable" are:

-5 years, $75 million. This buys up 1 UFA year
-6 years, $100 million. This buys up 2 UFA years
-7 years, $130 million. This buys up 3 UFA years

I'd probably go for the third option, with year 7 being an option year and structuring the money something like:

-Year 1: $9 million
-Year 2: $12 million
-Year 3: $18 million
-Year 4: $18 million
-Year 5: $18 million
-Year 6: $25 million
-Year 7: $30 million (option year)
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Nobody is giving him this lol. His comps are Kilemier Cutch and Cargo and cargo got 7/80
pittsburghbaseballnow.com

What it Might Take for the Pirates to Extend Bryan Reynolds

When Bryan Reynolds made his Major League debut for the Pirates on April 20, 2019, he quickly emerged as an impactful everyday outfielder. That year, he hit his way to an .880 OPS, a 130 wRC+ and finished fourth in the National League Rookie of the Year race. 2020, however, did not go nearly as […]
pittsburghbaseballnow.com pittsburghbaseballnow.com
 
bigdaddyk88 said:
Nobody is giving him this lol. His comps are Kilemier Cutch and Cargo and cargo got 7/80
pittsburghbaseballnow.com

What it Might Take for the Pirates to Extend Bryan Reynolds

When Bryan Reynolds made his Major League debut for the Pirates on April 20, 2019, he quickly emerged as an impactful everyday outfielder. That year, he hit his way to an .880 OPS, a 130 wRC+ and finished fourth in the National League Rookie of the Year race. 2020, however, did not go nearly as […]
pittsburghbaseballnow.com pittsburghbaseballnow.com
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There's a thing called inflation. Cargo got that contract over a decade ago.
 
I do think that the 7/130M type of deal is the upper echelon of what he could command. His earnings will be limited pretty hard by the 4 years of team control, even if his pace doesn't slow down at all. He won't be _old_ when he's a free agent, but I can't think of a lot of 31 year old OFs who make enormous bank in free agency. At that point, you're likely looking at starting to question whether he's still a CF (if not earlier), and while his skills may age well, he's not a huge masher, and solid corner OFs aren't insanely valuable.

In short I do think from his perspective, there's a lot of sense in taking a "solid" deal and locking in a lot of guaranteed money. I think the takeaway for the Pirates is that they are more interested in not overspending slightly to guarantee themselves his FA years where he might move to a less valuable position and be merely a solid, above average player. It's getting too far ahead, but where I think this is most worrying is the prospect of not having him around for a real shot in 2025 or so -- just gaming it out, it makes way more sense to have him locked in place in order to take real shots around 2024, 2025, and 2026, even if in the end you either don't win or you win, and in both scenarios you maybe trade him after you have gone through that point.

Tldr; is I'm not convinced that even the ballpark "big for the Pirates" big extension is all that important, since a trade of him towards the latter part of the contract might mean the team doesn't pay 1/3rd of its total value, and what's gained is having him as a definite veteran presence of when you hope a prospect-led team gives you a shot for a run. I really don't see any trade scenario that's more appealing than that.
 
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ImporterExporter said:
Also, Castillo has to be a lock for the opening day roster. Slot him at 2B (or 3B if Hayes is out).

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Yeah, Castillo has probably passed Chavis. And who knows what's going on with Hayes.

But I'd start with Castillo and Tucker up the middle if Hayes is healthy.
 
DJ Spinoza said:
I do think that the 7/130M type of deal is the upper echelon of what he could command. His earnings will be limited pretty hard by the 4 years of team control, even if his pace doesn't slow down at all. He won't be _old_ when he's a free agent, but I can't think of a lot of 31 year old OFs who make enormous bank in free agency. At that point, you're likely looking at starting to question whether he's still a CF (if not earlier), and while his skills may age well, he's not a huge masher, and solid corner OFs aren't insanely valuable.
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Eh Marte is 33 and just got a $19.5 million AAV deal.

I think Reynolds' UFA value is probably around $20 million a year, more if he can stick in CF.
 
DocEmrickSkitters said:
Yeah, Castillo has probably passed Chavis. And who knows what's going on with Hayes.

But I'd start with Castillo and Tucker up the middle if Hayes is healthy.
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Newman is the SS whether anyone likes it or not. Shelton and company have preached defense and even if his bat is as bad as last year, he'll be out there more often than not. Hopefully his bat improves and he's traded in June/July. But I'd role Castillo at 2B and let Tucker be a utility off the bench to start.

Now if Hayes is out then you can put Castillo at 3B, Tucker at 2B, and Newman at SS. Split Yoshi/Vogel between 1B and DH. Gamel and Allen in the COF and obviously Reynolds in CF.
 
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