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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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I'm not sure I like the VanMeter addition very much if it's going to come at the expense of Castillo cracking the opening day roster, though I guess I can also squint and see Castillo getting max volume playing time at AAA to start the season as making more sense (he has just 18 games there).

It's probably not worth getting too worked up over any roster decision, since besides Hayes, Reynolds, and perhaps Perez for obvious reasons, just about every other roster spot is up for grabs and guys can be given 4-6 week looks or so throughout the season on a revolving basis. I don't love that that's the plan, but I don't see anything else to conclude other than that we are going to drag our feet on any prospects like Cruz (no disrespect to Castillo, but even being all-in on a recent breakout, I don't think he's in that category of service time manipulation, though it's also an easy move to make for even a few weeks).

Maybe the strangest thing I'm pretty committed to coming out of the gate is that I'd like to see Tucker get a full run at an everyday spot. He looks much more dialed in with this new swing, and his athleticism might make him still have some upside that most thing is long gone. Ideally, I think, based on spring and assessing what we have, Tucker-Castillo would make a lot of sense as the middle infield, but I think we're going to slow roll any possible Newman trade and move just as slow with most promotions.
 
What’s the rotation looking like at this point? Brubaker, Keller, Wilson, Quintana, Crowe?
 
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KesselMania said:
What’s the rotation looking like at this point? Brubaker, Keller, Wilson, Quintana, Crowe?
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Thompson instead of Crowe. Though I think we will also see a few Crowe and Kranick starts. The quiet on Yajure's health is not good, IMO.
 
I get the sense they're taking their time with him. He apparently came in 10 lbs lighter than last year and in better overall fitness so it would be strange for him to still have issues. I can't imagine some kind of back strain lasting for so long, at least for a guy who's only 23. Just feels like they made up their mind before ST began that he's AAA bound to start the year.
 
I think we'll probably roll with some kind of 6-man rotation to start out, with some of the pitchers being limited on their pitch counts. Maybe not a traditional one, but one where there's a dedicated/planned bulk guy who could then slot into an actual 6-man rotation afterwards. I kind of think the start of the season will be an extended trial of sorts for everybody who is not Quintana and Keller.
 
I'm not sure how you don't award Castillo a starting job coming out of spring, and as silly as it is to think that we'll manipulate his service time (as a late blooming prospect who is already 24), I imagine that will be the reason why we'll send him to AAA for a couple of weeks instead.
 
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Is it even a hot take to suggest Castillo will be this team's ROY?

He is a stud.

Madris has passed Alford in my mind too, BTW.
 
Them getting Quintana when he is washed and desperate for a team that will let him start is so Pirates.

Hopefully he does a Liriano for them.
 


I came here to post this, with San Diego about to dump Hosmer. I would definitely not want to do this if I was the Pirates, this doesn't seem like nearly enough to take on Hosmer's asinine remaining contract.
 
I don't see it happening with Hayes, unless his Dad was really bad with his money.

This offer would be something in the 7/$55-$60M range given the 5 years of control and the real questions about Ke'Bryan's offensive upside. An OPS that starts with an 8 makes him a $100M man again
 
Empoleon8771 said:


I came here to post this, with San Diego about to dump Hosmer. I would definitely not want to do this if I was the Pirates, this doesn't seem like nearly enough to take on Hosmer's asinine remaining contract.
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The Mets must be in love with Paddack. Looking at the K/BB all the way back to his minors, there is something there. Maybe this is a message to me to be patient with Mitch Keller - a similar pitcher/prospect.
 
DocEmrickSkitters said:
I don't see it happening with Hayes, unless his Dad was really bad with his money.

This offer would be something in the 7/$55-$60M range given the 5 years of control and the real questions about Ke'Bryan's offensive upside. An OPS that starts with an 8 makes him a $100M man again
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If we're talking a 7 year deal that would kick in after this year, I think that would be 1 pre-arb years, 3 arb years and 3 UFA years, correct? Wouldn't his contract for this year already be finalized?

If they can get his contract extension to start this year, I think that's the best option to actually get him to sign a 7 year deal. I think $60 million over a window of 2 pre-arb years, 3 arb years and 2 UFA years is a pretty optimistic outcome for Hayes, and it still results in him being a UFA in a pretty prime age.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
If we're talking a 7 year deal that would kick in after this year, I think that would be 1 pre-arb years, 3 arb years and 3 UFA years, correct? Wouldn't his contract for this year already be finalized?

If they can get his contract extension to start this year, I think that's the best option to actually get him to sign a 7 year deal. I think $60 million over a window of 2 pre-arb years, 3 arb years and 2 UFA years is a pretty optimistic outcome for Hayes, and it still results in him being a UFA in a pretty prime age.
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Yes I suppose that's true, but they could always give him a raise this year as part of the deal. I'm guestimating that that is the offer on the table.

I think this is a leak from the team to smooth over all the bad PR recently. I can't see them offering Hayes more after 2021 than they offered after 2020, given his 2021.
 
If they can get his contract started this year:

Year 1: $5 million
Year 2: $5 million
Year 3: $7.5 million
Year 4: $10 million
Year 5: $12.5 million
Year 6: $15 million
Year 7: $15 million

This is 7 years, $70 million. This has Hayes earning about $8.8 million more in his pre-arb years and has him on what I would call pretty optimistic arbitration awards in years 3-5. Then the Pirates get 2 of his UFA years for like $5-$10 million below what he'd command on the open market.
 
Character AB from Matt Fraizier there. Completely overmatched by Matt Barnes to get to 2 strikes but then a nice piece of hitting to serve it up the middle.

I don't this he's particularly close though, watching him up there today. He's not gonna be the corner OF knocking on the door early. Maybe it is Cruz or CSN.
 
I think the name of the game with Hayes is guaranteed money. He does have the kind of skills to get a huge payday as a free agent, but there are also tons of ways not to get there.

This and extending Reynolds would be the easiest kind of PR that a tanking team can do. In fact, since it's basically revenue flow and not pure ability to spend that affects the Pirates (if we want to believe their poorhouse stories at all), the best thing that they could do in terms of commitment and demonstrating that it's really there is to leverage front loading contracts in order to make the player happy and give the team further flexibility in the future years.

Last year's payroll was way more than this year's projects to be, so factoring in bigger raises in order to keep the eventual high years down a couple notches would be the best for short and long-term.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:


So apparently the offer wasn't enough but they're still negotiating. That's at least encouraging?
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I mean it's cool that they're talking, but I think there's a fundamental difference in the kind of offer we'd make and what Hayes is looking for. We would offer him something in the realm of what a 2.5-3WAR player would command, but give him the financial guarantee. Hayes' camp probably believes he can be a 5-6WAR+ player.

It's hard to offer and complete a Jose Tabata type deal unless the player comes from a Jose Tabata background.
 
The more I look at contract comparables for Hayes, the more I think 7 years at $70 million should get it done. Even if Hayes becomes Arenado 2.0, which would be the best case scenario, he's probably only looking at about $90-$100 million over that 7 year window. That's with:

-Year 1: $700k
-Year 2: $700k
-Year 3: $5 million
-Year 4: $10 million
-Year 5: $15 million
-Year 6: $30 million
-Year 7: $30 million

I think $30 million a year for Hayes as a UFA is reasonable if he becomes Arenado 2.0. You may need to go a bit higher than $70 million, but I don't think it should be too much higher unless Hayes is really confident he'll be Arenado 2.0.

I would go as high as 7 years, $85 million with this layout:

-Year 1: $5 million
-Year 2: $5 million
-Year 3: $7.5 million
-Year 4: $12.5 million
-Year 5: $15 million
-Year 6: $20 million
-Year 7: $20 million

If he's not willing to sign this, I don't think he will sign a reasonable long-term deal.
 
I maintain that between the two, I would prefer to extend Reynolds. And honestly, I care more about adding external help when we are getting good than extending these two guys.

I'm still not bought into Hayes' bat. I thought 2020 smashed through any projections that he'd be a glove-only .650-.700 OPS guy but his 2021 renewed them for me. Until I know that left-tail outcome is off the table I'm uncomfortable with any deal that promises him $15-$20M annually into the future.

But all told I would still be happy if it got done, as a statement of intentions of sorts.
 
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DocEmrickSkitters said:
I maintain that between the two, I would prefer to extend Reynolds. And honestly, I care more about adding external help when we are getting good than extending these two guys.

I'm still not bought into Hayes' bat. I thought 2020 smashed through any projections that he'd be a glove-only .650-.700 OPS guy but his 2021 renewed them for me. Until I know that left-tail outcome is off the table I'm uncomfortable with any deal that promises him $15-$20M annually into the future.

But all told I would still be happy if it got done, as a statement of intentions of sorts.
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I would rather extend Reynolds too but I think the problem is that a Reynolds extension could break the $100 million barrier and I see no chance Nutting is willing to do that.

I would offer Reynolds 6 years at $90 million ($5 million, $10 million, $15 million and 3 years of $20 million) with the expectation he wouldn't accept that.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
I would rather extend Reynolds too but I think the problem is that a Reynolds extension could break the $100 million barrier and I see no chance Nutting is willing to do that.

I would offer Reynolds 6 years at $90 million ($5 million, $10 million, $15 million and 3 years of $20 million) with the expectation he wouldn't accept that.
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Truth be told I don't think we extend either of them. The best time to do it is before the player has made some real money in the game for that financial security. In Reynolds case he is gonna get $4.5M right now. Hayes comes from money.

For each player you get your $60-$100M extension now but it likely disqualifies you from the chance of becoming a $200-$250M player in the future. As a Reynolds gets closer and closer to FA, he gets more comfortable betting on himself.
 
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