OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[DanielPlainview]

The machine spitting out cryptic messages that frustrate everyone

 

[Factorial]

Not directly Pirate related but Rich Rod suspended for 80 game for PEDS.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The machine spitting out cryptic messages that frustrate everyone

Yeah, their quotes about whether Hayes is healthy or not are also not award-winning clear English. It's almost beyond parody at this point -- there's functionally no reason a GM should even open his mouth anymore. The worst is that it's also chock full of corporate America truisms.

One thing about Castillo making the roster is that it calls some more spotlight on the Cruz decision. He also doesn't have much experience above AA, and randomly throwing him into the OF doesn't seem to be a huge problem. The icing on the cake is that the predictions are all starting to roll out and they are in full force for Cruz as NL ROY.

It's really going to put a damper on the whole season if we aggressively force him to stay in AAA while he's performing. We'll see if he does perform, but it seems like a huge waste not to try for the extra comp pick and generate some more buzz around the young team.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah, their quotes about whether Hayes is healthy or not are also not award-winning clear English. It's almost beyond parody at this point -- there's functionally no reason a GM should even open his mouth anymore. The worst is that it's also chock full of corporate America truisms.

One thing about Castillo making the roster is that it calls some more spotlight on the Cruz decision. He also doesn't have much experience above AA, and randomly throwing him into the OF doesn't seem to be a huge problem. The icing on the cake is that the predictions are all starting to roll out and they are in full force for Cruz as NL ROY.

It's really going to put a damper on the whole season if we aggressively force him to stay in AAA while he's performing. We'll see if he does perform, but it seems like a huge waste not to try for the extra comp pick and generate some more buzz around the young team.

The comp pick thing is a joke. The value of a comp pick is miniscule compared to an extra year of a (presumably) elite player. Like compare Hudson Head or Mlod or Lonnie White versus a year of in-prime Cruz. Not even close.

The MLBPA chose not to pursue age-based free agency, like the NHL has. It's dumb but the service time union foreman sh1t remains.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Let's not beat around the bush: Cruz is in AAA because of service time manipulation. It's really that simple. A GM will never admit it but it's painfully obvious that's what is happening.

And frankly, after I saw the impact that had on Arenado, I'm much more fine with the Pirates doing this with Cruz. The Rockies called up Arenado prior to the super-two deadline in his rookie year, which caused him to get an extra year of arbitration. That extra year of arbitration cost the Rockies $25 million.

Had the Pirates not called up Reynolds for the entire 2019 season, they could still have Reynolds on a pre-arb deal for this year as well. You complain about service time manipulation until you have to pay a guy $20 million in his arbitration years because you didn't do it.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yes, though the obvious issue with the Pirates is that we have no reason to believe they'll pay the player through arbitration anyways, and any extension makes those kinds of questions a moot point anyways.

I think the more damning thing is in terms of the message recent decisions send to others. Castillo deserved his roster spot as much as anyways, even moreso than Cruz (though it's not a good comparison because we never really let Cruz try for a spot), but Cruz is patently the kind of player who can impact the game and was performing. It's not worth complaining about because we all know what's going on, but "player culture" my ass.

Looks like Yajure has made the roster based on his IG: Watch this story by Miguel Yajure on Instagram before it disappears.

This is somewhat surprising, but it makes sense that Yajure's innings might be monitored by being a multi-inning guy in the majors for a while, and maybe working into a rotation spot later in the year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I know people have beaten the Archer trade to death, but I still firmly have the opinion that neither Meadows nor Glasnow are anything special. Glasnow because he can't stay healthy and Meadows because he's can't play defense. Baz ultimately ended up being the piece that hurt like hell to give up in that disaster of a trade.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I know people have beaten the Archer trade to death, but I still firmly have the opinion that neither Meadows nor Glasnow are anything special. Glasnow because he can't stay healthy and Meadows because he's can't play defense. Baz ultimately ended up being the piece that hurt like hell to give up in that disaster of a trade.

Meadows is straddling that line between landing as a really marquee guy and being Ben Gamel.

The whole thing would be easier to stomach if Archer didn't suck so bad when he was here.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Meadows is a useful player but he has a laundry list injury history (and did when we traded him too) and basically shouldn't play vs. LHP. It does seem like the Rays are going a cost-cutting route here, though Pareda also seems like the kind of guy they'll use in a platoon and get a lot of mileage out of.

I wonder a little bit of there might be another shoe to drop. Getting the pick could set Tampa up to sign Conforto and not take much of a hit to their draft pool, and they were reportedly making serious offers to Freeman.

Conforto is a little bit of a risk, but the reward for him even hitting big for two years of a contract is pretty big for a contending team. I think if he's not scooped up in the next day or two, teams might end up riding it out until later in the summer when the comp pick goes away, and then somebody will pay him a lot on a one-year deal.

 

[Gallatin]

I suspected it was something like this. That Padres trade offer they leaked was a joke.

You guys....

 

[Gallatin]

Let's not beat around the bush: Cruz is in AAA because of service time manipulation. It's really that simple. A GM will never admit it but it's painfully obvious that's what is happening.

And frankly, after I saw the impact that had on Arenado, I'm much more fine with the Pirates doing this with Cruz. The Rockies called up Arenado prior to the super-two deadline in his rookie year, which caused him to get an extra year of arbitration. That extra year of arbitration cost the Rockies $25 million.

Had the Pirates not called up Reynolds for the entire 2019 season, they could still have Reynolds on a pre-arb deal for this year as well. You complain about service time manipulation until you have to pay a guy $20 million in his arbitration years because you didn't do it.

Reality enters the conversation.

I couldn't read you guys this last week, not worth it. Hope you'all don't choose to be regular Bucs fans. I come here because there's real discussion, instead of the constant moaning about money issues.

Except for last week I mean.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Reality enters the conversation.

I couldn't read you guys this last week, not worth it. Hope you'all don't choose to be regular Bucs fans. I come here because there's real discussion, instead of the constant moaning about money issues.

Except for last week I mean.

Bah, last week was the exception, not the norm. And, let's be honest, the comments were in context of what is currently happening, not empty "crying" about how cheap the owner is.

That being said, glad Castillo is going to get a shot and I hope Cruz joins him soon enough. I also hope they can reach a deal with Hayes and Reynolds. We have exciting young players, it would be fun to see them develop and see a contender, like in the early mid 10s, emerge. I feel like I am not asking for a whole lot

 

[pistolpete11]

Wait...were people saying they shouldn't send Cruz down? Why? This team is going to suck and Cruz being here wouldn't change that. Having him on the team would just ensure he's gone a year earlier. It would have been negligent to not send him down.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Bah, last week was the exception, not the norm. And, let's be honest, the comments were in context of what is currently happening, not empty "crying" about how cheap the owner is.

That being said, glad Castillo is going to get a shot and I hope Cruz joins him soon enough. I also hope they can reach a deal with Hayes and Reynolds. We have exciting young players, it would be fun to see them develop and see a contender, like in the early mid 10s, emerge. I feel like I am not asking for a whole lot

I actually heard a stat on the locked on pirates podcast that was interesting. Castillo has more AB above single A then when Reynolds was called up in 2019. People forget he was a minor league free agent and that’s why the Yankees moved him. Cruz isn’t close to that number plus he still wants to stick at SS that’s where the big money is. He is willing to play elsewhere but wants to be a SS.
I don’t see an extension with Bryan he knows 5-100 is waiting on him in 26 at minimum. Hayes hasn’t earned the Marte 5/51 in new money offer he got in Arizona. If he doesn’t hit he will not get anywhere near 10 million a year

 

[pistolpete11]

The most frustrating part of the Archer trade is that they weren't willing to move Meadows and Glasnow 3-5 years earlier when they were legit contenders and then finally did move them to try to stay mediocre.

 

[ChaosAgent]

The most frustrating part of the Archer trade is that they weren't willing to move Meadows and Glasnow 3-5 years earlier when they were legit contenders and then finally did move them to try to stay mediocre.

I think there was a lot of scuttlebutt that they made a run at Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton and Glasnow was involved.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

The most frustrating part of the Archer trade is that they weren't willing to move Meadows and Glasnow 3-5 years earlier when they were legit contenders and then finally did move them to try to stay mediocre.

Not true they were offered for David price but price chose Tampa

 

[pistolpete11]

I think there was a lot of scuttlebutt that they made a run at Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton and Glasnow was involved.

I remember them supposedly making a run at Stanton, but still, Stanton wasn't the only guy that could have improved those teams. Instead they tried to have their cake and eat it too with trades like Byrd, Morneau, Happ, Ramirez, etc. Some of those worked out better than others, but the point I'm making is they weren't willing (or I guess weren't able to) trade top prospects for known, proven commodities when it counted.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't want to drone on about the Cruz situation forever because there's no point, but what I wonder from those who defend the front office is how far they are willing to go. Cherington and co. have picked a lane with Cruz, and the only logical endpoint of their commitment is that they'll keep him in AAA until Super Two clears in early/mid-June no matter what.

I think there are baseball reasons specific to both the player and the task of actually turning around the MLB performance that speak to it making more sense to let him play Thursday, but even setting all of those aside, I think that them having to follow through on this commitment is more extreme, unless Cruz is merely fine in AAA. If he starts tearing it up for 3 or 4 weeks, then they really need to suck it up and give him MLB experience, at the risk of undermining their own manipulation. Even if we aren't going to attempt to win until 2025 and Reynolds will only factor in as a trade chip, you need to have players with MLB experience who you can rely on, so I think the same logic applies to other top prospects when they are ready to debut, whether that's this year, next year, or beyond.

The Rays can shuffle off productive MLB players when they become expensive in large part because their 40-man roster is so crowded with good players. The road from here to there is not very simple, and the Pirates need to start replacing the worst parts of their depth chart with better players (i.e., taking the "risk" of letting players you've developed show they can play when they earn a chance) sooner rather than later.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I don't want to drone on about the Cruz situation forever because there's no point, but what I wonder from those who defend the front office is how far they are willing to go. Cherington and co. have picked a lane with Cruz, and the only logical endpoint of their commitment is that they'll keep him in AAA until Super Two clears in early/mid-June no matter what.

I think there are baseball reasons specific to both the player and the task of actually turning around the MLB performance that speak to it making more sense to let him play Thursday, but even setting all of those aside, I think that them having to follow through on this commitment is more extreme, unless Cruz is merely fine in AAA. If he starts tearing it up for 3 or 4 weeks, then they really need to suck it up and give him MLB experience, at the risk of undermining their own manipulation. Even if we aren't going to attempt to win until 2025 and Reynolds will only factor in as a trade chip, you need to have players with MLB experience who you can rely on, so I think the same logic applies to other top prospects when they are ready to debut, whether that's this year, next year, or beyond.

The Rays can shuffle off productive MLB players when they become expensive in large part because their 40-man roster is so crowded with good players. The road from here to there is not very simple, and the Pirates need to start replacing the worst parts of their depth chart with better players (i.e., taking the "risk" of letting players you've developed show they can play when they earn a chance) sooner rather than later.

Why do they have to suck it up vegas says we will win 65 games. If Cruz is who we think he is they will have play every day starting in august here with Swaggerty Contreras Martin and whoever else earns the call up. They will if they stick have 2 full seasons of major league experience if they don’t attempt to win until 25. This season is about development of guys who lost a year of it because of Covid

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The reason is because wasting 4-5 weeks of ABs vs. AAA hitters if he is clearly ready for the MLB challenge is something that a losing franchise does. The goal should not be to get the highest draft pick yet again -- at minimum, it should be to develop the most important players when and where their play dictates.

We'll see how it goes. It's possible that Cruz won't have immediate success in AAA, but if he does, there's only so much he needs to show there. The logic of getting control above all else is how you hamper development. Cruz is inexperienced enough that they have the fig leaf of cover even though he was obviously looking like he could hold his own in spring training.

Ultimately, my issue is in terms of organizational management. There's filler up and down the 40-man roster, and if it's not displaced by talent that you've developed, then what's tangibly happening is the deferral of success into a future that's always running ahead of you. It's possible that they could lose 100 this year, lose 90 next year, and then be in the hunt for a wild card spot in 2025, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Having said all this, though, if Cruz does really perform in AAA, then calling him up in early/mid-May to let him succeed and get experience at the MLB level is almost worse than any of this, given the decision that they've already made. What he'll do or not in AAA vs. MLB is still all speculation, but I guess we'll see starting tonight. All told, and Cruz is only the exclamation point on this, I don't see much of a reason to suggest that Cherington is anything more than an adequate GM who has done the easy part of a rebuild perfectly fine. How we get from here to the next step doesn't seem clear to me either in terms of his front office leadership or the commitment ownership said does exist when they hired him.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Here's hoping

 

[pistolpete11]

I don't want to drone on about the Cruz situation forever because there's no point, but what I wonder from those who defend the front office is how far they are willing to go. Cherington and co. have picked a lane with Cruz, and the only logical endpoint of their commitment is that they'll keep him in AAA until Super Two clears in early/mid-June no matter what.

I think there are baseball reasons specific to both the player and the task of actually turning around the MLB performance that speak to it making more sense to let him play Thursday, but even setting all of those aside, I think that them having to follow through on this commitment is more extreme, unless Cruz is merely fine in AAA. If he starts tearing it up for 3 or 4 weeks, then they really need to suck it up and give him MLB experience, at the risk of undermining their own manipulation. Even if we aren't going to attempt to win until 2025 and Reynolds will only factor in as a trade chip, you need to have players with MLB experience who you can rely on, so I think the same logic applies to other top prospects when they are ready to debut, whether that's this year, next year, or beyond.

The Rays can shuffle off productive MLB players when they become expensive in large part because their 40-man roster is so crowded with good players. The road from here to there is not very simple, and the Pirates need to start replacing the worst parts of their depth chart with better players (i.e., taking the "risk" of letting players you've developed show they can play when they earn a chance) sooner rather than later.

If their target is to start competing is 2025, then a month or 2 of AB's in 2022 is going to be almost meaningless. On the flip side, having to start paying him big money a year earlier (if he turns out to be as good as we hope he is) during their window is not. It's a shitty system for young players (and fans), but the Pirates are correct in taking advantage of Super 2 in this case.

 

[Empoleon8771]

They'll be signing someone in free agency, I wonder who it will be.

 

[DanielPlainview]

If everything goes to plan - Cruz, Gonzales, Peguero, Contrares, Priester, etc. pan out - 2024 should be when they make a run at the division or at least show that they're a young team on the cusp of doing so. In that scenario (rather than the one they find themselves in currently: staring down another bottom 1/4 finish), it might be best competitively to have have guys like Henry Davis and Anthony Solometo getting big league time in 2024 rather than playing around with control.

While it's true in order for small market teams to remain competitive over the long haul they must do things to limit payroll, it's also true that small market teams must make the most of their home grown talent when the time comes. Balancing that will be Cherington's job relatively soon. Let's hope he and his team do not repeat the mistakes of the last FO.

Basically, different moments in a team's development require different approaches. Right now, manipulating control is probably not a big deal.