OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[DJ Spinoza]

Given what we've seen from rookies over and over, even highly touted ones, it would be foolish to be overconfident that anybody is a shoe-in for ROY. But it's still the case that all of the top young talent in 2022 is in the AL. The NL race is wide open.

Not sure it matters, but the new MLB.com Pirates beat writer seems to think he'll be up in mid-May. I'm pretty confident Cruz won't have significant issues in AAA, but I'm not at all confident we'll see it happen until he clears the Super Two cutoff in early/mid-June. That tracks pretty well with a churn and burn type approach, where nobody is really kept as a building block. Until I see actions suggesting otherwise, I expect a Reynolds trade to creep on the horizon, and then the same kind of treatment to Gonzales, Davis, or others next year, regardless of what they do with their opportunities.

To me, the most damning thing is that Cruz wasn't given much of a chance. He got 15 ABs. I understand not wanting to make this into a huge ordeal, but I don't like how any of this sits -- open tanking, dragging your best player to arbitration, and no real evidence that things will be much different next year either.

 

[ChaosAgent]

No one was even expecting Cruz or Contreras to start the year up here until they randomly got into games in the last series of last year.

The top prospects don't come up until May-June. It has been that way forever and the only thing that was going to change that was changing to an age-based Free Agency.

But there are plenty of non-top guys who we'll get to see plenty of early. Castillo. Smith-Njigba maybe. Tucker may have found something. A revamped Keller (which BTW, Marin had nothing to do with). Yajure if he merits it. Follow the minors as that's where most of the good stuff'll be anyway.

Last time the team rounded into contention we had steadily more investment from 2011-2013. But the team merited it. As of now it doesn't but in the near-future it should. Personally I think we start treading water towards .500 in August/September.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think this thread lays it all out more clearly than my ramblings.

I still find it hard not to be as cynical as possible. If they go for option #1 here (call him up in 2ish weeks, just enough to preserve a year of service), they are tempting fate with ROY negating the ploy. Yes, it's not as easy as assuming he'll definitely win, and I guess they'd be fine with some good PR, but in this scenario a) you didn't take the obvious crack at the comp pick and b) hard to believe he worked on anything in the span of two weeks.

The "best" case for it seems like more like what a lot of people are expecting, i.e. if he's down for 3-5 weeks and playing well, he'll come up and we'll be fine with Super Two. Maybe they really do think he needs to do some things in AAA and don't care if he does end up earning a full year of service, but I just can't get myself there.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Hayes already hurt...

Hayes’ status for Opening Day unclear

BRADENTON, Fla. -- The Pirates announced that third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes is day to day after sustaining a minor right ankle sprain several days ago during practice and won’t play “for a brief period of time.” Hayes can participate in all baseball activities aside from running. His status for...

www.mlb.com

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Hard not to see Castillo making the team over guys like Chavis if spring training play is the main determinant.

I wonder if we might see something like Castillo getting a fair amount of time in the infield, with Tucker being a little bit more of a utility player and also getting into the corner OF mix. Allen has definitely earned a spot in the OF, but it's not too difficult to see Tucker and Castillo getting a fair amount of ABs.

Don't want to beat a dead horse, but Castillo's play is one more reason to try and move Newman. Even with a slightly better bat, Newman is a bench option for any half decent team, one who is useful due to the speed, defense, and contact skills. I don't see his value being much higher or lower later in the season, except maybe because his payroll hit is less or something. He's not the future at SS and there's no reason not to open up as many ABs as possible for guys like Castillo or Tucker, who could at least be playing a utility role in the next few seasons.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Castillo just absolutely tanked another one. Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing this guy start on Opening Day. Tucker's approach at the plate has also been noticeably more compact and sort of controlled -- it seems like he's able to actually get to more of the leverage he has this year, though who knows how it will hold up in games.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I want to see Castillo get a long look at 2nd. Have Newman play SS until Cruz comes up and have Tucker as a super utility guy.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm shocked.

 

[ImporterExporter]

These teams exist to act as feeders for the big market clubs. I'm fully convinced of it.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

In context I think he meant that these were offers back in 2020, but that doesn't make it any better. It seems like there is no plan at all other than to just ride things out and wait for the talent to rise up. That's not going to lead to much more than more of the same, once attrition and injuries kick in. If no attempt at all was made to talk to Reynolds about an extension this winter, it's hard to be very confident that anything like that is on the agenda for the winter (even for Cruz). Hope I'm wrong.

 

[Gallatin]

These teams exist to act as feeders for the big market clubs. I'm fully convinced of it.

Well that's certainly the current MLB model.

 

[Gallatin]

In context I think he meant that these were offers back in 2020, but that doesn't make it any better. It seems like there is no plan at all other than to just ride things out and wait for the talent to rise up. That's not going to lead to much more than more of the same, once attrition and injuries kick in. If no attempt at all was made to talk to Reynolds about an extension this winter, it's hard to be very confident that anything like that is on the agenda for the winter (even for Cruz). Hope I'm wrong.

Reynolds' best chance at a long-term contract would be if they came out of nowhere and drew good crowds. The increase in revenue might get the job done. Might.

Far as I'm concerned, 6-7yrs control is much nicer than the college sports model - 5 to play 4. That's how I choose to view things rather than the constant gnashing of teeth that's never ending about what the Bucs aren't doing.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Reynolds' best chance at a long-term contract would be if they came out of nowhere and drew good crowds. The increase in revenue might get the job done. Might.

Far as I'm concerned, 6-7yrs control is much nicer than the college sports model - 5 to play 4. That's how I choose to view things rather than the constant gnashing of teeth that's never ending about what the Bucs aren't doing.

It makes no sense for Reynolds to give up his free agency that starts at 31 in 2026 and if the pirates aren’t getting any of his years they aren’t extended him. He will make 4.5 million this year 10 million next year if he continues and then he traded in 24 at age 29.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

These teams exist to act as feeders for the big market clubs. I'm fully convinced of it.

That’s exactly what the players wanted to happen and why instead of fighting for a floor they pushed for a higher cbt. They are counting on the Mets dodgers Yankees Philly Boston to spend more. It’s why the reds who spend money and Angels who spend money voted against the new cbt.

 

[Factorial]

 

[Pens1566]

So hard to like this franchise when they pull this shit ...

 

[ImporterExporter]

Brutal. This team exists only to give away the few studs they do produce to the have's.

San Diego has nothing we should want. And if you're highlighting bums like Paddack and Weathers as some sort of central piece in a return, you might as well just fold the damn franchise and let the top 10 spending teams have their pick at the roster and minor leaguers.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Jesus f***ing Christ...

 

[ChaosAgent]

All that said, this is a leak from the Padres certainly. BC wouldn't be calling out Weathers as some sort of main piece.

From the Padres to make a trade vaguely workable it depends on what we think of Abrams. Personally a guy who did NOT mash at AA, and his appeal is "young relative to level" and "can play SS" (as if we don't already have a gazillion guys who can) doesn't excite me as the headliner in this trade. That said, if the teams revisit the Reynoldds talks in July we can see where Abrams and Gore are at.

Edit: Almost certainly the Pirates asked for Abrams at least and the Pads said no but didn't leak that part. Come on people.

 

[Beauner]

All that said, this is a leak from the Padres certainly. BC wouldn't be calling out Weathers as some sort of main piece.

From the Padres to make a trade vaguely workable it depends on what we think of Abrams. Personally a guy who did NOT mash at AA, and his appeal is "young relative to level" and "can play SS" (as if we don't already have a gazillion guys who can) doesn't excite me as the headliner in this trade. That said, if the teams revisit the Reynoldds talks in July we can see where Abrams and Gore are at.

This isn't directed at you personally... but who f***ing cares? I'm tired of following prospects from MILB until they reach the majors, only for them to be shipped off after 1-3 years of actually being in Pittsburgh. I don't care if we get SD's top 5 prospects. It'll just be more waiting for them to develop (if they even do), then a couple years of production before they're inevitably traded. It's a cycle I don't care to be a part of anymore. If by some miracle our player development staff can have a contention-worthy roster come up around the same time, I'll be interested but I don't have high hopes of that happening. Further, I have 0 faith that we'd actually add to that roster to increase our odds in the playoffs.

I've watched progressivly less baseball over the past few years and if the Guardians trade Jose Ramirez I might just stop watching entirely.

 

[ChaosAgent]

This isn't directed at you personally... but who f***ing cares? I'm tired of following prospects from MILB until they reach the majors, only for them to be shipped off after 1-3 years of actually being in Pittsburgh. I don't care if we get SD's top 5 prospects. It'll just be more waiting for them to develop (if they even do), then a couple years of production before they're inevitably traded. It's a cycle I don't care to be a part of anymore. I've watched progressivly less baseball over the past few years and if the Guardians trade Jose Ramirez I might just stop watching entirely.

I think there is still an argument that Reynolds is too old for the Pirates window and thus I could see us trading him away.

Them trading Reynolds is not my line in the sand, but I respect it being yours.

That said they are asking for trade packages that hardly ever change hands. Julio Rodriguez (who I would take straight up over Reynolds right now, today). Stuff like that. The package off the top of my head that's in the ballpark would be what the Red Sox gave up for Chris Sale - Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. We're looking for something in that neighborhood. The Padres GM spitballing with Nightengale that "yeah we talked about Reynolds and offered Paddack, Gore and some prospects. But only print Paddack in that" changes nothing.

 

[Beauner]

I think there is still an argument that Reynolds is too old for the Pirates window and thus I could see us trading him away.

Them trading Reynolds is not my line in the sand, but I respect it being yours.

That said they are asking for trade packages that hardly ever change hands. Julio Rodriguez (who I would take straight up over Reynolds right now, today). Stuff like that. The package off the top of my head that's in the ballpark would be what the Red Sox gave up for Chris Sale - Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. We're looking for something in that neighborhood. The Padres GM spitballing with Nightengale that "yeah we talked about Reynolds and offered Paddack, Gore and some prospects. But only print Paddack in that" changes nothing.

I feel that. If Reynolds was 2 years away from UFA, then I'd get it. With as much team control as he has, I see no reason to trade him right now

 

[Empoleon8771]

If they're not willing to sign Reynolds long term right now, they should just trade him. They're better off selling high on him right now if they're not willing to commit to him being here when the team hopefully becomes good in 3 or so years.

 

[ChaosAgent]

If they're not willing to sign Reynolds long term right now, they should just trade him. They're better off selling high on him right now if they're not willing to commit to him being here when the team hopefully becomes good in 3 or so years.

Why? They won't get any less for him at the deadline unless he sucks.

They are asking for prospects that teams don't trade unless they feel they have a dire need. Like, the equivalent package of something like Cruz/Priester/Endy. The other teams aren't meeting that ask and aren't even coming close. A chatty FO leaking something to Nightengale means nothing to me.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Why? They won't get any less for him at the deadline unless he sucks.

They are asking for prospects that teams don't trade unless they feel they have a dire need. Like, the equivalent package of something like Cruz/Priester/Endy. The other teams aren't meeting that ask and aren't even coming close. A chatty FO leaking something to Nightengale means nothing to me.

What's the point of keeping him until the deadline? The team is going to suck this year. Why risk Reynolds decreasing his value by keeping him in a lost season?

Their options are to extend him, trade him now or trade him sometime in the future. The correct solution is extending him, but if they won't do that, there is no benefit for keeping him and waiting to trade him.