OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[wheelz87]

This team is totally laying an egg this weekend against the dbacks

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I can't wait to go to SD and harass all of my brother's mates that are Dodgers fans after this.

We suck, but we still beat the Dodgers in the season series!

 

[Gallatin]

Yeah, this makes sense based on the little I've been able to read -- thanks. I am really hoping that we don't go with the pool-saving approach this time around, but it's hard to look at what we've consistently done and think there's no chance we repeat it, so we'll see.

With Johnson it just seems like fatigue more than anything else. For my money, the hit tool is the one thing you can't teach a guy, and then Green's upside is just too enormous. I have to do more due diligence, but if we have the chance at one and pass for a "safer" college bat, I'll be disappointed. It does seem like the O's are likely to save money, and that there's no scenario where Jones falls (and if he did, I think it would then take some doing to actually sign him, because he'll rightly want overslot from #4). Holliday seemed like the guy who was getting hype recently, enough that it actually seems likely that at least one of Green or Johnson makes it to #4.

In any case, over six weeks left is still an eternity in terms of draft jockeying, doubly so in a year like this where it's pretty nebulous what kinds of tiers there are. I think there's too much evidence pointing to the fact that we prefer the college route. Part of me wants to say that the Davis decision was a one-time play, but that kind of thing is also probably an organizational philosophy, so especially if we aren't enamored with one of the prep guys, it makes sense to count on it happening.

I know a recently former MLB pro scout (retired). He's been hearing from friends and former colleagues that Collier's ceiling is very high, maybe even in the range of a Jones or Green.

I got no problem with the Bucs taking that kid if they can leverage it similar to last Draft.

Additionally - Kiley McDaniel's first mock is up. A thought provoking write-up about how things might play out in the early rounds. For example; even though it’s a down year for college pitching - he thinks teams will still draft those pitchers in the first round (due to how they value close-to-the-majors pitching) but for under-slot deals, which will push a lot of HS talent (the deepest part of the draft) and money to the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I know we're desperate for pitching, but
I feel pretty strongly about wanting to take advantage of that potential dynamic next month - would be the Moneyball thing to do.

2022 MLB Mock Draft 1.0: Which son of a former MLB star goes No. 1 overall?

 

[Gallatin]

We just continue to make huge plays in huge moments.

This. Something about this team....

I'm so surprised. Getting a 97 kinda vibe with this crew.

 

[Gallatin]

The Pirates finally joined the launch angle revolution after the league already nerfed the ball to cut down on the taters.

Exactly how I view this season, and why I'm higher on many of our young hitters than their numbers might warrant, especially all the LH hitters that can pull the ball @ PNC.

Honestly though I don't think it was competence, but incompetence the has led to the baseballs problem. Cuz it's only really about a third or half of them.
Ball performance inconsistency is huge this year now that MLB has full control over making them.

 

[Gallatin]

Chavis is another under the radar plus from Cherington.

A good player to add around a strong core is how I'm seeing Chavis. Hopefully that core develops soon.

I do believe the new pro scouting staff has shown some things this year. Big improvement over 20 & 21 IMO.

 

[Gallatin]

Listened to this earlier, worth the 15min IMO.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I know a recently former MLB pro scout (retired). He's been hearing from friends and former colleagues that Collier's ceiling is very high, maybe even in the range of a Jones or Green.

I got no problem with the Bucs taking that kid if they can leverage it similar to last Draft.

Additionally - Kiley McDaniel's first mock is up. A thought provoking write-up about how things might play out in the early rounds. For example; even though it’s a down year for college pitching - he thinks teams will still draft those pitchers in the first round (due to how they value close-to-the-majors pitching) but for under-slot deals, which will push a lot of HS talent (the deepest part of the draft) and money to the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I know we're desperate for pitching, but
I feel pretty strongly about wanting to take advantage of that potential dynamic next month - would be the Moneyball thing to do.

2022 MLB Mock Draft 1.0: Which son of a former MLB star goes No. 1 overall?

Interesting, thanks for the perspective on Collier. He does seem to be flying up boards, as is Holliday. Certainly how he performs in the Cape will weigh heavily, and we already know Cherington and Sanders seem to really like players who perform there. In addition, Johnson playing in the wood bat league will probably be pretty important for his final draft stock. I still haven't really seen a reason for him to not be in the first tier (which is how it's looking in various mocks by industry people now), but maybe not everyone is all-in on the hit tool.

I'm of two minds with the draft, and picking 4th is a difficult middle ground for them. On the one hand, I think when you are at the top, you need to swing big for an impact player, especially when you are a team that will never sign one in free agency and like all other teams, won't be able to get one in any trade. But on the other hand, model-based approaches have something going for them, and once you are outside the first few handful of picks, it's an obvious truism that the best players don't get taken in the same order, and the bust ratio gets to be pretty high even starting with pick 4 or 5 in many draft years.

Last year, I eventually came around and was convinced by the Davis move, partially because I think Davis is a pretty unique player in that there's still a scenario where you decide the bat is good enough that you don't want to bother with the injury risk and defensive learning curve to have him catching all the time (I don't think this, but the bat is so good that I think we should at least explore getting him some 1B work, so that he can play nearly every day as a 1B/DH in addition to catching... the logical outcome here is that we try for an additional strong C).

Two year's ago, my Monday morning quarterback says it would be really nice to have Reid Detmers right now. I'm glad Gonzales seems to have turned the corner, and one thing that I have changed my mind on quite a bit since then is that towards the top of the draft, it makes the most sense to skew away from pitcher unless it's really what the board gives you.

At the end of the day, I think the truism about what the board gives you is right on the money, and the possible scenario of another slight underslot in order to gather more talent in the comp round and round 2 makes a whole lot of sense. That said, I think I still skew towards wanting to see Green fall into our lap, with Johnson right there as well. Green is just such a unique talent where if it all comes together, you have a mega-star on your hands. With the hit tool, Johnson is a safe bet to develop into a strong player I think.

I'm repeating what we all know here, but so much hinges on the Orioles. With Collier rising fast, their approach to things might even make it make sense for them to nab him, since that gives them a big shave at the top pick. Then you have to default Jones to Arizona, which opens up a lot of options for us. I'd love to be picking second this year and have Jones fall into our lap.

 

[Gallatin]

Interesting, thanks for the perspective on Collier. He does seem to be flying up boards, as is Holliday. Certainly how he performs in the Cape will weigh heavily, and we already know Cherington and Sanders seem to really like players who perform there. In addition, Johnson playing in the wood bat league will probably be pretty important for his final draft stock. I still haven't really seen a reason for him to not be in the first tier (which is how it's looking in various mocks by industry people now), but maybe not everyone is all-in on the hit tool.

I'm of two minds with the draft, and picking 4th is a difficult middle ground for them. On the one hand, I think when you are at the top, you need to swing big for an impact player, especially when you are a team that will never sign one in free agency and like all other teams, won't be able to get one in any trade. But on the other hand, model-based approaches have something going for them, and once you are outside the first few handful of picks, it's an obvious truism that the best players don't get taken in the same order, and the bust ratio gets to be pretty high even starting with pick 4 or 5 in many draft years.

Last year, I eventually came around and was convinced by the Davis move, partially because I think Davis is a pretty unique player in that there's still a scenario where you decide the bat is good enough that you don't want to bother with the injury risk and defensive learning curve to have him catching all the time (I don't think this, but the bat is so good that I think we should at least explore getting him some 1B work, so that he can play nearly every day as a 1B/DH in addition to catching... the logical outcome here is that we try for an additional strong C).

Two year's ago, my Monday morning quarterback says it would be really nice to have Reid Detmers right now. I'm glad Gonzales seems to have turned the corner, and one thing that I have changed my mind on quite a bit since then is that towards the top of the draft, it makes the most sense to skew away from pitcher unless it's really what the board gives you.

At the end of the day, I think the truism about what the board gives you is right on the money, and the possible scenario of another slight underslot in order to gather more talent in the comp round and round 2 makes a whole lot of sense. That said, I think I still skew towards wanting to see Green fall into our lap, with Johnson right there as well. Green is just such a unique talent where if it all comes together, you have a mega-star on your hands. With the hit tool, Johnson is a safe bet to develop into a strong player I think.

I'm repeating what we all know here, but so much hinges on the Orioles. With Collier rising fast, their approach to things might even make it make sense for them to nab him, since that gives them a big shave at the top pick. Then you have to default Jones to Arizona, which opens up a lot of options for us. I'd love to be picking second this year and have Jones fall into our lap.

I'm not against taking another C @ #4....

Green would be hard to pass up for sure. Would be REALLY SURPRISED if he's still on the board though, keep hearing it's a BPA year at #1 for Baltimore. I think that means Green, or more likely Jones.

Great little interview here that displays the team culture they're building - the one that led to the recent uptick in play. It seems in recent weeks I'm disliking Shelton less and less.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm not totally opposed to Parada at #4 this year, though the old school guy in me wonders a little bit about what kind of signal it sends if you have Davis as your #1 overall pick and then immediately follow it by taking another catcher with your top pick, and one who will also move fast. Of course, baseball is a team sport, and it's likely that the days of a Posey type catcher are behind us (though Rutschman may have something to say about that), but I think in terms of his competitiveness and tenacity, Davis is the guy you will want behind the plate 60% of the time or something.

Still, if your scouts like Parada or the board gives you that as a strategy, there's no reason to shy away from it, but it's a bit of a unique situation. I'm fully off targeting pitching so high, but before Davis I was fully off targeting a catcher in the 1st round. The advanced college bat changes the equation a little bit, but I think it would have to be a unique situation to go back for a second one.


For the MLB team, I think I still pump the brakes on any wild card talk or even .500 talk, but I'm here to enjoy whatever ride the team can go on. The depth is still not really there, and an injury to somebody like Brubaker or Quintana would be completely devastating, without even getting into what's going to happen at the trade deadline.

I think the x-factors are Reynolds and Cruz. If Reynolds gets hot and returns to 2021 form, then that alone is maybe enough to get our heads above .500 for a little while. The June schedule really isn't that bad if we can navigate the upcoming 8 game road trip vs. Atlanta and St. Louis. The pre-ASB July is a little bit tougher, but still doable. I think if we can crawl back to .500 by the ASB, that will be really impressive, and even just mathematically, because of all the other mediocre teams, will put us in the WC conversation by default.

Too early to really get into deadline stuff, but I'm skeptical that trading Quintana is worth it, especially if we're just looking at an Anderson type return. Better to see if he's interested in a modest 3 year extension. If he likes the park, maybe he takes the guarantee and you have a small gesture towards continuing to compete in 2023.

The broader question is of course how this team can take steps forward without just waiting for prospects, and that is mainly a question about the starting pitching, even as Brubaker has started to show he might contribute there. Frankie Montas is still my target, but paying a deadline premium when you are a bad team is a pretty risky endeavor. It would really be the kind of statement that the team needs, and which I don't think is going to come in free agency. Montas is having a terrific season, but I still wonder if he's on the border between a pitcher who really impacts your regular season and a pitcher who you definitely want in the postseason. Hard to say exactly how much he'll be valued, but I think if we're willing to trade a guy like Bae, we have a solid chance at a competitive package.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'm not convinced at all that Davis sticks at catcher. Beyond the framing stuff which may or may not be an issue, he struggles with baserunners correct?

Defensively it sounds like Endy is the better guy even within our system.

 

[Gallatin]

I'm not totally opposed to Parada at #4 this year, though the old school guy in me wonders a little bit about what kind of signal it sends if you have Davis as your #1 overall pick and then immediately follow it by taking another catcher with your top pick, and one who will also move fast. Of course, baseball is a team sport, and it's likely that the days of a Posey type catcher are behind us (though Rutschman may have something to say about that), but I think in terms of his competitiveness and tenacity, Davis is the guy you will want behind the plate 60% of the time or something.

Still, if your scouts like Parada or the board gives you that as a strategy, there's no reason to shy away from it, but it's a bit of a unique situation. I'm fully off targeting pitching so high, but before Davis I was fully off targeting a catcher in the 1st round. The advanced college bat changes the equation a little bit, but I think it would have to be a unique situation to go back for a second one.


For the MLB team, I think I still pump the brakes on any wild card talk or even .500 talk, but I'm here to enjoy whatever ride the team can go on. The depth is still not really there, and an injury to somebody like Brubaker or Quintana would be completely devastating, without even getting into what's going to happen at the trade deadline.

I think the x-factors are Reynolds and Cruz. If Reynolds gets hot and returns to 2021 form, then that alone is maybe enough to get our heads above .500 for a little while. The June schedule really isn't that bad if we can navigate the upcoming 8 game road trip vs. Atlanta and St. Louis. The pre-ASB July is a little bit tougher, but still doable. I think if we can crawl back to .500 by the ASB, that will be really impressive, and even just mathematically, because of all the other mediocre teams, will put us in the WC conversation by default.

Too early to really get into deadline stuff, but I'm skeptical that trading Quintana is worth it, especially if we're just looking at an Anderson type return. Better to see if he's interested in a modest 3 year extension. If he likes the park, maybe he takes the guarantee and you have a small gesture towards continuing to compete in 2023.

The broader question is of course how this team can take steps forward without just waiting for prospects, and that is mainly a question about the starting pitching, even as Brubaker has started to show he might contribute there. Frankie Montas is still my target, but paying a deadline premium when you are a bad team is a pretty risky endeavor. It would really be the kind of statement that the team needs, and which I don't think is going to come in free agency. Montas is having a terrific season, but I still wonder if he's on the border between a pitcher who really impacts your regular season and a pitcher who you definitely want in the postseason. Hard to say exactly how much he'll be valued, but I think if we're willing to trade a guy like Bae, we have a solid chance at a competitive package.

Convinced Davis is an MLB hitter - have yet to be convinced he's an MLB catcher though.

With you on Quintana - would rather they sign him for 2 or 3 years if he's still good come the deadline.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Quintana is 33, giving him an extension is entirely reliant on what contenders are willing to give for him. A veteran lefty who has and continues to give the Dodgers issues is likely to garner more interest than some expect

 

[ImporterExporter]

Zach Thompson is the guy beyond Contreras and Quintana that has me at least mildly optimistic. His May was strong after a terrible April. 2.45 ERA/4.00 FIP in 6 starts. Throwing the cutter more. Went back and watched his Marlins highlights from last year. I'm most hopeful on him as far as contributing beyond this year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It may be a little crazy of a suggestion, but what's stopping the Pirates from trying to put Davis on the same route as Varsho? I think Varsho was another example of a guy with an incredibly well developed bat but subpar defense at C, so they moved him to the OF and he has done amazingly well defensively in CF.

I think Varsho is probably more of a unicorn type of player that Davis wouldn't be able to replicate, but has there been any projections done on Davis for how he'd do defensively in an OF role?

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Anything is a possibility.

Baseball today is drfinitely in an era of sticking guys who can hit at new positions to fit their bat into the everyday lineup.

Once upon a time, Neil Walker was a catcher.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think the main question is probably just comfort with making reads and getting used to an entirely different position. 1B always seems like the more natural option for a catcher (thinking of Grandal), but there's not necessarily a reason it can't be tried.

I am a little bit apprehensive just because Davis has been a catcher full-time, and clearly has the tenacity and team leader type mentality that makes him suitable for it. The angle of transitioning him fully would be pretty extreme, and it's hard to know for sure what doing it part-time would look like with his development.

That stuff is hard enough to watch on MLB broadcasts, let alone the MiLB feeds, but I think the main questions with him are general framing and defense along with pitch calling and game management, which he didn't do in college. He's clearly got the work ethic to improve, so my mindset is that he needs to get back from injury and keep at it full time this year in AA. You probably don't start thinking about alternatives until the winter, and in any case, it seems exceedingly likely that he will not debut in MLB until after Super Two next year at the earliest.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think the main question is probably just comfort with making reads and getting used to an entirely different position. 1B always seems like the more natural option for a catcher (thinking of Grandal), but there's not necessarily a reason it can't be tried.

I am a little bit apprehensive just because Davis has been a catcher full-time, and clearly has the tenacity and team leader type mentality that makes him suitable for it. The angle of transitioning him fully would be pretty extreme, and it's hard to know for sure what doing it part-time would look like with his development.

That stuff is hard enough to watch on MLB broadcasts, let alone the MiLB feeds, but I think the main questions with him are general framing and defense along with pitch calling and game management, which he didn't do in college. He's clearly got the work ethic to improve, so my mindset is that he needs to get back from injury and keep at it full time this year in AA. You probably don't start thinking about alternatives until the winter, and in any case, it seems exceedingly likely that he will not debut in MLB until after Super Two next year at the earliest.

The premium position thing is like..

Are we better with Roberto Perez at catcher and Henry Davis in the OF?
Or Henry Davis at catcher and Ben Gamel in the OF?

Not sure. Honestly. If Perez (or Newman) is a defensive wizard at that position, that wizardry is worth wins.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Bat is usually secondary for a catcher, isn't it? You foremost want a guy who's going to make life as easy as possible for the pitcher and has a good enough defense and arm to keep runners honest.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Bat is usually secondary for a catcher, isn't it? You foremost want a guy who's going to make life as easy as possible for the pitcher and has a good enough defense and arm to keep runners honest.

I agree. Davis at C and Cruz at SS are fools' errands. If the bats play they play. But don't tank our defense for no reason.

 

[DanielPlainview]

What's Davis' mobility like? From what I can gather he's not the quickest kid. So is he a RF type if moved to the OF? or does he maybe fit better at 1B?

 

[Empoleon8771]

What's Davis' mobility like? From what I can gather he's not the quickest kid. So is he a RF type if moved to the OF? or does he maybe fit better at 1B?

His running scouting grades were fairly mediocre, I think most had him at 40/45 where Varsho was at 60/60. But with that being said, he's also bee fantastic at stealing bases, so maybe his footspeed isn't as bad as you'd think it is.

I think what makes a lot more sense is to put Cruz in RF and Davis as a 1B/C/DH, but we'll see if Cruz can actually adjust to the OF. I don't think it's a problem if Davis ends up being your backup catcher but starting 1B/DH.

I agree. Davis at C and Cruz at SS are fools' errands. If the bats play they play. But don't tank our defense for no reason.

I don't think Davis at C is nearly as bad as Cruz at SS.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don't think Davis at C is nearly as bad as Cruz at SS.

I agree that he is better at the position. But I think C is the most important defensive position. Being below average at catcher defensively is as bad for a team as having a disaster at short.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I agree that he is better at the position. But I think C is the most important defensive position. Being below average at catcher defensively is as bad for a team as having a disaster at short.

Eh I don't agree with this because of how important of a position SS is. Being a SS is being the captain of the infield.

I don't think it would be an issue for Davis to be the backup catcher and play maybe 40-60 games a year at catcher, with the rest being 1B, DH or maybe getting fancy with another position. I do think it would be an issue for Cruz to be a backup SS and play 40-60 games a year at SS.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Eh I don't agree with this because of how important of a position SS is. Being a SS is being the captain of the infield.

I don't think it would be an issue for Davis to be the backup catcher and play maybe 40-60 games a year at catcher, with the rest being 1B, DH or maybe getting fancy with another position. I do think it would be an issue for Cruz to be a backup SS and play 40-60 games a year at SS.

Yeah, I think Davis as part of a catcher platoon with Endy or a veteran (or both) totally works. Better to keep his bat in the lineup and preserve the knees regardless.