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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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Big test coming up against the Brewers @ PNC starting tomorrow. Good news, is we avoid Burnes. Then the Padres over the weekend.

6 games, hoping we can at least go 3-3 in this stretch and maintain the .500 level play.
 
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Yesterday was definitely an impressive bounce back, especially because a lot of the Cubs demolition was fueled by bad bounces made worse by horrid defense. There were another couple of bounces that didn't go our way yesterday (that's baseball), but we bore down and secured the win.

I do think at this point that we are a better bad team than the Cubs and Reds, though if you asked me to guess what the order will be at the end of the season, I'd say it's a total toss up. I really don't think our pitching situation is going to be sustainable. Roansy will help, maybe even significantly, but there is a lot resting on Quintana just eating a decent number of innings, and I think he's not going to be able to do that as much as Anderson did last year. If Keller does take a step forward, then we can maybe tread water -- I'm not so pessimistic about the multi-inning guys in the pen, because they have experience as starters, and so might be able to handle fairly heavy usage.

But after that, there's not really a lot of help coming. Even an upside guy like Burrows, if forced into duty, isn't going to throw a ton of innings this year. But whatever, we'll see what happens. Both of the other teams are very young with similar or worse flaws. Divisional play will probably dictate a lot. Right now we're 1-5 vs. the Brewers and Cardinals, so hopefully we can start turning that in a better direction this week.

4-2 vs. the Cubs and 3-1 vs. the Nats will definitely play going forward, so if we are able to keep that up while handling the teams like the DBacks, Rockies, Reds, and perhaps Marlins (I think they are better than the rest of this group), then we'll be in ok shape as far as not completely cratering.
 
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DJ Spinoza said:
Yesterday was definitely an impressive bounce back, especially because a lot of the Cubs demolition was fueled by bad bounces made worse by horrid defense. There were another couple of bounces that didn't go our way yesterday (that's baseball), but we bore down and secured the win.

I do think at this point that we are a better bad team than the Cubs and Reds, though if you asked me to guess what the order will be at the end of the season, I'd say it's a total toss up. I really don't think our pitching situation is going to be sustainable. Roansy will help, maybe even significantly, but there is a lot resting on Quintana just eating a decent number of innings, and I think he's not going to be able to do that as much as Anderson did last year. If Keller does take a step forward, then we can maybe tread water -- I'm not so pessimistic about the multi-inning guys in the pen, because they have experience as starters, and so might be able to handle fairly heavy usage.

But after that, there's not really a lot of help coming. Even an upside guy like Burrows, if forced into duty, isn't going to throw a ton of innings this year. But whatever, we'll see what happens. Both of the other teams are very young with similar or worse flaws. Divisional play will probably dictate a lot. Right now we're 1-5 vs. the Brewers and Cardinals, so hopefully we can start turning that in a better direction this week.

4-2 vs. the Cubs and 3-1 vs. the Nats will definitely play going forward, so if we are able to keep that up while handling the teams like the DBacks, Rockies, Reds, and perhaps Marlins (I think they are better than the rest of this group), then we'll be in ok shape as far as not completely cratering.
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The offense will be better. RF will improve and Reynolds MUST be better. Also Yoshi. I don't see anybody so far above their projections either.
 
DJ Spinoza said:
Yesterday was definitely an impressive bounce back, especially because a lot of the Cubs demolition was fueled by bad bounces made worse by horrid defense. There were another couple of bounces that didn't go our way yesterday (that's baseball), but we bore down and secured the win.

I do think at this point that we are a better bad team than the Cubs and Reds, though if you asked me to guess what the order will be at the end of the season, I'd say it's a total toss up. I really don't think our pitching situation is going to be sustainable. Roansy will help, maybe even significantly, but there is a lot resting on Quintana just eating a decent number of innings, and I think he's not going to be able to do that as much as Anderson did last year. If Keller does take a step forward, then we can maybe tread water -- I'm not so pessimistic about the multi-inning guys in the pen, because they have experience as starters, and so might be able to handle fairly heavy usage.

But after that, there's not really a lot of help coming. Even an upside guy like Burrows, if forced into duty, isn't going to throw a ton of innings this year. But whatever, we'll see what happens. Both of the other teams are very young with similar or worse flaws. Divisional play will probably dictate a lot. Right now we're 1-5 vs. the Brewers and Cardinals, so hopefully we can start turning that in a better direction this week.

4-2 vs. the Cubs and 3-1 vs. the Nats will definitely play going forward, so if we are able to keep that up while handling the teams like the DBacks, Rockies, Reds, and perhaps Marlins (I think they are better than the rest of this group), then we'll be in ok shape as far as not completely cratering.
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Our rotation is just abysmal and obviously the bullpen can't continue to throw up 0's as they've largely been doing thus far.

We need Reynolds to get turned around and at least 1 other hitter to produce above the bar results to offset the pitching downturn that will come eventually. Maybe Cruz will go on a tear over the next month and then be able to impact the offense in a positive manner the 2nd half of the season. Obviously, I'd expect guys like Mitchell and Martin to get looks at some point. Guessing closer to the trade deadline.

Obviously Roansy can help to some degree as far as the rotation goes, as you mentioned, but a significant help, he probably won't be this year. We need Wilson/Keller/Thompson/ etc to step up and provide better than 6 ERA figures. Even if it's just 1 of them.

But yeah, the NLC is going to almost surely be the Cards/Brewers at the top by a fairly wide margin with us, Reds, Cubs vying for 3-5. I agree, that we have a legit shot to finish 3rd in the division and I think win 70-75 games if we can get some better pitching results from the starters, though that's a tall ask given the bodies we currently have.

I don't think we're losing 100 games though. Didn't think that before the year, and almost a month in, we're battling hard and really showing some resolve to get hard earned wins, which is a good sign IMO.
 
New Pipeline draft update is out: New Draft Top 150 list: Unprecedented 1st round?

Looks like the newest riser is Matt Holiday's son -- I've seen people suggesting that there's a tier of 4 atop the draft this year with Jones, Johnson, Green, and Holiday. To me, from only reading a little bit, it seems more like Holiday could be appealing as an underslot with solid tools and the pedigree. I get the sense that there are a lot of solid players, but not really enormous standouts or slam dunks, which I think is actually more of the norm with the MLB draft anyways.

My sense for what would be best for us is Holiday entering the picture for one of the teams picking 1-3 as an underslot option. The Orioles have trended in that direction a lot -- the Rangers and DBacks seem harder to predict.

It does seem like Jones is emerging as the consensus #1, but I think even setting that aside, it's a slam dunk that he won't make it to 4th. If we assume that and one team does bite on Holiday or a college bat as an underslot move, then that would guarantee us either Johnson or Green, which IMO is the ideal outcome. I'd love to have Johnson and his elite hit tool as a cornerstone talent, and Green is a swing-for-the-fences move who would be difficult to pass up. He's cut back on the Ks so far this year from a glance.
 
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This is probably not insignificant news given how much we are relying on bullpen performance to stay afloat.

For the optimists out there, our schedule really isn't too insane between now and June 1st. We will get the Dodgers six times, but we are also going to get the Tatis-less Padres six time, and the schedule otherwise is 3 vs both the Brewers and Cardinals and then a huge bunch of mediocre teams: Reds (8 games), Rockies (3), Cubs (3), and Tigers (2).

The 8 vs. the Reds obviously loom large. I don't think we are better than them to the extent that we'll beat up on them, but it's within the realm of possibility if Reynolds gets going and the overall play remains strong. Going 6-2 there and then taking care of business vs. lots of the other similar teams, while treading water vs. the two CA teams (maybe 2-4 vs the Dodgers and 3-3 vs the Padres) could actually see us 4-5 games over .500 as we approach the summer months and hopefully a burst of talent and momentum from the most exciting prospect in baseball.

I'm not ready to go there yet, but I do hope the solid play continues. We also need to get Contreras back ASAP. We're wasting his innings in AAA, though it's obvious why we sent him down. One thing with him might be that the ROY crop looks pretty weak so far, so if we call him back after just another week or two, it's not insane to think he could play his way into the conversation even with reduced innings. If he doesn't really have a transition period, I could see it. Regardless, I just hope we don't try to keep him down until late June or July in order to avoid Super Two with him -- the focus should be on getting experience vs. MLB hitters, because he has a singular importance to the 2023 team.
 
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Seems like some changes are about to be announced: Allen is in the clubhouse, as are Suwinski and Marcano. No lineup posted yet, Reynolds and Tucker are not around. My guess would be that Reynolds has an injury and Tucker got demoted, not sure otherwise.
 
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Looks like Suwinski will get the start -- hopefully he can remain on fire. These are definitely more "emergency cover the bases" kind of moves than anything. Players who go on the covid IL don't necessarily have covid, so it could depend on the tests in terms of when somebody comes back. Obviously, the most deserving INF right now is Castro, but the infield is crowded enough that Suwinski will be the main beneficiary.

VanMeter over Castillo again, which I really hope is basically a trial for staying on the roster once they shrink. I really don't want to fall into overhyping Castillo but I just don't get it. He's better defensively than everyone but Newman (and Hayes, but irrelevant), he was locked in, and he isn't able to get somewhat regular playing time? There's not really a spot for him in the minors, either, though he could probably play pretty regularly in Indy.

If you really want to push it, it's a bit of a red flag that we veered to a player like that vs. someone we acquired last year who made improvements and had success. I guess the thinking is that we don't quite have another LH bench bat, and the 2019 stats show some promise, but it takes some real squinting to get there. I'm not opposed to him in this kind of role over Castro, for example (in the sense that if he's up, he needs to play), but I just don't see any obvious reason why Castillo can't get regular ABs for like a week or two.
 
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DJ Spinoza said:
Looks like Suwinski will get the start -- hopefully he can remain on fire. These are definitely more "emergency cover the bases" kind of moves than anything. Players who go on the covid IL don't necessarily have covid, so it could depend on the tests in terms of when somebody comes back. Obviously, the most deserving INF right now is Castro, but the infield is crowded enough that Suwinski will be the main beneficiary.

VanMeter over Castillo again, which I really hope is basically a trial for staying on the roster once they shrink. I really don't want to fall into overhyping Castillo but I just don't get it. He's better defensively than everyone but Newman (and Hayes, but irrelevant), he was locked in, and he isn't able to get somewhat regular playing time? There's not really a spot for him in the minors, either, though he could probably play pretty regularly in Indy.

If you really want to push it, it's a bit of a red flag that we veered to a player like that vs. someone we acquired last year who made improvements and had success. I guess the thinking is that we don't quite have another LH bench bat, and the 2019 stats show some promise, but it takes some real squinting to get there. I'm not opposed to him in this kind of role over Castro, for example (in the sense that if he's up, he needs to play), but I just don't see any obvious reason why Castillo can't get regular ABs for like a week or two.
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The thing to take solace in is that this roster will look a lot different by the end of the year. Lots of guys at the tipping point of produce or good bye.

Alford was the first casualty, many more to come
 
Yeah, there's plenty of time and Castillo profiles as more of an up/down guy or a utility infielder, but with Cruz hopefully not long for the minors, I wish we were giving him some more run. I won't really have a huge issue with it if we are making a relatively quick decision on VanMeter one way or another.
 
With Keller, I really think whether or not he can knuckle down in these types of situations and still get 5+ IP with not a ton more damage is almost as much of a step forward as would "regular" solid outings. Obviously, the line at the end of the game is what you have to judge by, so we'll just have to see what that is today. Better second inning, but even though the fastball looks like it has some more movement, I think he's just living too much in the zone.

The overall plan seems to me like it's heavy FB usage one time, heavy offspeed the other, which can work for him to become a twice through the order guy, but I think he needs whiffs in order to stay somewhat unpredictable.
 
That fastball which Keller used to get Wong out is what will play. If he has pitches working low in the zone, even the fastball (which a guy can certainly tee off on there), then going up in the zone like that is how he can keep guys off balance and either get whiffs or bad contact like that.
 
I'm going to be really disappointed if Davis can't stick behind the plate when he hits the majors, but his hitting is going to be so absurdly good that I can't really complain about taking him #1 overall.

The dude just hits, period. His OPS in the minors so far is 1.093
 
I feel like Keller has gotten a bit lucky today, he has gotten a couple of pitches hit hard and has left some stinker pitches in really dangerous areas. He left a hanging slider right down the middle of the plate that should have been sent to the stratosphere, but the Brewers batter just flew out. But at the same time, he was getting really unlucky in some of his other games this year, so I think this is regression back to the norm.

His FIP this year is 3.91 and I think games like today will bring his ERA closer to his FIP.
 
This is on the defense -- Keller executed and navigated through 5 IP as far as I'm concerned.

We just aren't a very good team. With this lineup, there's no chance we'd even come back down 2-1 anyways.
 
Vogey and Hayes on base with no outs again and Brown acting like Woodruff is in trouble instead of not needing to face the only two good batters anymore.

Woodruff's pitch count is gonna push him out of the game very soon, but we have no margin for error. Nice! Gamel gets a good bounce and we're sitting pretty. We need to convert both runs against the bullpen...
 
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