Yeah, I think that's likely what's going to happen. I actually just went back and watched his innings, and he was as dominant as suggested. I really think if we were able to do it, keeping him in this role for a month or so would be the best for his development and continuing to carefully monitor his innings, even if at some point they will probably want him to stretch out in the minors, and however it happens, it is a certainty that we'll do what we have to do to get the extra year.
I'm actually not fully confident that Howard will automatically be on the team when his rehab ends. He can still be optioned, whereas a guy like Banda cannot. Peters is also out of options, but Fletcher can be optioned. So unless Howard looks really dominant, I think we'll keep the former options over him for now.
Once we have to go from 28 to 26, though, it's hard to see Contreras sticking. However, it might be possible for us to enter into some kind of shuffling with Contreras and Yajure so that we can continue to use them as bulk relievers in order to manage innings and get experience/challenged at the MLB level. Maybe even to start, Fletcher goes down, and you look for 3 innings another time or two, and then eventually 4 -- realistically, it's unlikely that Brubaker or whoever pitches before Yajure is going to go more than 5 innings.
At some point, maybe the other relievers are too taxed, and so you need to recall Fletcher or Howard and you option Contreras so that he can build up to 5-6 as a starter and come back. I think that makes more sense than immediately sending him down, since he doesn't seem bothered by the bulk role of coming out of the pen. It probably doesn't matter all that much, since you could send him back today, build him up and get the extra year of control, and then call him back whenever you want and he's immediately the best starting pitcher we have.
I guess what I am thinking is that Contreras has a hard limit of innings he can throw this year, and is completely dominant so far. We are a better team if we can get solid piggyback situations between Brubaker+Contreras and Thompson+Peters if the other starters can hold their own enough so that the bullpen doesn't get too taxed. It doesn't seem out of the question that you could have Contreras do this for 4-5 more times through to the end of May, which limits his innings somewhat, and then send him down for the # of days necessary / 2-3 starts (which in AAA is effectively 21 days assuming you just start him once a series). Then he can come back mid-summer and be put into the rotation and just let loose, and you shut him down when necessary later on, this way avoiding any kind of back-and-forth situation.
Back of napkin math: he currently has 8 innings. Let's say 6 more appearances to get to late May = 22 innings (30) + AAA for 3 starts = 18 innings (48). He pitched 54 last year, so I would guess 110-120 is a conservative estimate of what we want in 2022. If we assume we might have him only go 5 IP a few times as part of the management, then that's maybe 12-13 starts, which if he is back and starting in MLB by mid/late-June, probably gets you close enough to September before you shut him down for the season, assuming all goes well etc.
