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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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Maybe oversimplifying, but the biggest and most important question IMO is still what kind of hit rate we end up having with top picks. We cannot afford to miss on those players, and no amount of helium or pop-up guys like Endy or Andres Alvarez will affect that equation.

Priester can probably be lumped in with the current group even though NH drafted him. We've seen Gonzo look better in an extremely small sample size. I don't think there's anything to be concerned about with Davis beyond maybe staying on the field, but him transitioning away from catcher (if it happens all the way especially) will be a big blow to his value.

I don't think it's too aggressive to say that all three of those guys need to remain healthy, strong features of the system and also debut for the Pirates in 2023. None of them may factor into serious innings, but we need to see them perform in the fall league (at least Gonzo and Davis -- I haven't seen that Priester will go yet, but he should have the innings) and then not regress as they enter 2023 and get bumps to the AAA level. If someone is really performing, they should be pushed and challenged to get into the mix as early as is feasible next summer, since you want all three as important factors for the 2024 season.

A lot can be said about Huntington's era, and the end of it, but a number of the first round talents leave something to be desired. I am not ready to write Swaggerty off at all, but without going back and relitigating anything, it's this group of players that has to be converted into above average MLB regulars or better.
 
DJ Spinoza said:
Maybe oversimplifying, but the biggest and most important question IMO is still what kind of hit rate we end up having with top picks. We cannot afford to miss on those players, and no amount of helium or pop-up guys like Endy or Andres Alvarez will affect that equation.

Priester can probably be lumped in with the current group even though NH drafted him. We've seen Gonzo look better in an extremely small sample size. I don't think there's anything to be concerned about with Davis beyond maybe staying on the field, but him transitioning away from catcher (if it happens all the way especially) will be a big blow to his value.

I don't think it's too aggressive to say that all three of those guys need to remain healthy, strong features of the system and also debut for the Pirates in 2023. None of them may factor into serious innings, but we need to see them perform in the fall league (at least Gonzo and Davis -- I haven't seen that Priester will go yet, but he should have the innings) and then not regress as they enter 2023 and get bumps to the AAA level. If someone is really performing, they should be pushed and challenged to get into the mix as early as is feasible next summer, since you want all three as important factors for the 2024 season.

A lot can be said about Huntington's era, and the end of it, but a number of the first round talents leave something to be desired. I am not ready to write Swaggerty off at all, but without going back and relitigating anything, it's this group of players that has to be converted into above average MLB regulars or better.
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We weren't picking that high, but certainly Tucker/Craig/Swaggerty we're bad picks. No doubt about it.

I watched Gonzo hit one game in person and it strengthens concerns. He just had no recognition of righty breaking stuff at all. Mlod has disappeared into the prospect ether and Jones is the most talented guy in that draft but with huge control concerns. The COVID draft looks average at best. 2021 was very hyped but we need Davis and either Solo or Chandler to be a star
 
I don't want to go way into the weeds, but I think the Craig pick, even though he was a bust, can be excused because of how good the team was. It's still bad to miss, but lots of teams miss around that pick or later in the first. But the main point is that we cannot miss with any of the recent guys, especially since they were pretty high picks (Swaggerty is even a pretty high pick, though not as high as the others).

Endy with yet another HR for Altoona.
 
DJ Spinoza said:




Davis with a couple of walks, Gonzales with a 1B and 2B, as well. Brannigan made a really terrific play in Bradenton.

And just as I finished typing, Endy hit another HR in his next AB from the other side of the plate!

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Maybe this is just me being a prisoner of the moment as usual, but I think Endy might be the most valuable prospect in the entire system. Maybe even player, depending on how you value Cruz.

People like to marginally move prospects up their lists. But sometimes you just have to admit when a prospect makes a deserved leap. Like in ST last year, there was no way you could watch Roansy pitch and not conclude that he was a top 5 prospect in the system unless you were too attached/anchored to some list you'd made before. Endy is getting to the same point.
 
DJ Spinoza said:
I don't want to go way into the weeds, but I think the Craig pick, even though he was a bust, can be excused because of how good the team was. It's still bad to miss, but lots of teams miss around that pick or later in the first. But the main point is that we cannot miss with any of the recent guys, especially since they were pretty high picks (Swaggerty is even a pretty high pick, though not as high as the others).
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IMO the Marte and Bell trades are just as big of misses. Peguero is halfway down the road to bustville at this point and was the equivalent of a first-round talent. Meanwhile, we held onto Bell for a year too long (this was obvious to everyone at the time), diminishing his value and then got Crowe and a lottery ticket in return.
 
I definitely agree that those trades look bad or bad timed. I'm not at all out on Peguero yet given his age and the underlying traits with him, but it's not been a great season. At 21, I could see him bouncing back quite a bit next year, though it's never great to repeat a level. It's still a much different story than if he were 23 or 24, though.

With Endy, I think it's undoubtable that he will fly up rankings based on his overall season. His time with Altoona has just been absurd, really just a total tear for three full weeks now with no signs of slowing down. The top of the list has some players who are difficult to compare to one another, but regardless of that exercise, we might be on the edge of whether or not Endy should get a cup of coffee in MLB.

Altoona looks to make the playoffs, so I doubt it would happen for that and other reasons, but in addition to the standout stuff, what's so impressive is that he's maintaining elite walk rates and very good K rates every step of the way. Over the long run, it will be interesting how cavalier the Pirates want to get. Catcher development is hard to parse defensively, since so much of it requires you to see games in person or at least with much more extensive camerawork than most MiLB teams. I would assume there's no way he makes a team out of spring training, but there will probably be some question of whether or not to have him and Davis at the same level (my guess is that the catcher situation will play out by re-signing Perez and having Delay in a spring training battle with others including Sabol and Bins for the backup role).
 
DJ Spinoza said:
I definitely agree that those trades look bad or bad timed. I'm not at all out on Peguero yet given his age and the underlying traits with him, but it's not been a great season. At 21, I could see him bouncing back quite a bit next year, though it's never great to repeat a level. It's still a much different story than if he were 23 or 24, though.

With Endy, I think it's undoubtable that he will fly up rankings based on his overall season. His time with Altoona has just been absurd, really just a total tear for three full weeks now with no signs of slowing down. The top of the list has some players who are difficult to compare to one another, but regardless of that exercise, we might be on the edge of whether or not Endy should get a cup of coffee in MLB.

Altoona looks to make the playoffs, so I doubt it would happen for that and other reasons, but in addition to the standout stuff, what's so impressive is that he's maintaining elite walk rates and very good K rates every step of the way. Over the long run, it will be interesting how cavalier the Pirates want to get. Catcher development is hard to parse defensively, since so much of it requires you to see games in person or at least with much more extensive camerawork than most MiLB teams. I would assume there's no way he makes a team out of spring training, but there will probably be some question of whether or not to have him and Davis at the same level (my guess is that the catcher situation will play out by re-signing Perez and having Delay in a spring training battle with others including Sabol and Bins for the backup role).
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Without a doubt, Endy and Davis are the *hitting* prospects we are dreaming on next year.

While hopefully Gorski continues his late bloomer season and doesn't turn into another Matt Fraizier 1-year wonder.

I don't hold out a lot of hope for Gonzales or Peguero at this point but Castro, Bae and maybe Marcano make them redundant. Plus I think the team can and probably will bring back Newman at this point.

I do like how this will make our lineup more right-handed. No more "lefty starter is a lock to dominate" kind of stuff.
Beyond that, we have to hope for a leap from Cruz and Suwinski. And hope that Hayes can stay at around .675-.700 OPS without further regression. I think he could be hurtling towards a sad, Jason Heyward type of fate at the dish where he just completely loses it. It's teetering.

Without perusing the market too much, in my demands for Nutting to spend an incremental $30M I'd put $15M into starting pitching, $5M into the bullpen and grab 2 interesting, Vogelbach-ish tier hitters.
 
I've been beating the "I don't think Peguero is very good" drum for a while now. I just don't see anything in his skillset that suggests he'll be anything more than a bench guy. He doesn't hit for power or average, he's not this massive speed threat and he doesn't project to be a defensive wizard. A lot of his projected rankings seem to be based on him developing his hitting tool, where he becomes this good contact hitter who brings good speed and good defense at SS. But that hitting tool development just hasn't happened yet, and his skillset without being a good contact hitter is ultra redundant.

I wouldn't include Gonzalez with Peguero, though. Gonzalez has some pretty clear plus hitting tools and has shown he can hit for both power and average in the past. His only issue this year is with staying healthy.

But honestly, the performance of the prospects is not really the thing that concerns me going forward. The thing that concerns me going forward is that this team has the stench of a loser with an incompetent coach, and it's hard to wash away that stench. The team is just so god damn bad right now that I'm genuinely wondering how they can fix the atmosphere with this team.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
I've been beating the "I don't think Peguero is very good" drum for a while now. I just don't see anything in his skillset that suggests he'll be anything more than a bench guy. He doesn't hit for power or average, he's not this massive speed threat and he doesn't project to be a defensive wizard. A lot of his projected rankings seem to be based on him developing his hitting tool, where he becomes this good contact hitter who brings good speed and good defense at SS. But that hitting tool development just hasn't happened yet, and his skillset without being a good contact hitter is ultra redundant.

I wouldn't include Gonzalez with Peguero, though. Gonzalez has some pretty clear plus hitting tools and has shown he can hit for both power and average in the past. His only issue this year is with staying healthy.

But honestly, the performance of the prospects is not really the thing that concerns me going forward. The thing that concerns me going forward is that this team has the stench of a loser with an incompetent coach, and it's hard to wash away that stench. The team is just so god damn bad right now that I'm genuinely wondering how they can fix the atmosphere with this team.
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Gonzales is striking out in 32% of his PAs as a 23 year old in AA.
The outright-bust chance is absolutely there. He can definitely impact a baseball though.

I do think this organization has a loser culture and it leads to call-ups pressing, because the lineup around them is so bad. Or a Hayes being counted on for more than what he is offensively. We need better players and more of them. Shelton has the loser's stench at this point too. For sure. And Haines gotta go, despite Tim's best attempt to cast it as "this year is product of Haines being a Driveline guy which makes him 100% correct, but the previous regime weren't Driveline guys and as such, 3 years into BC's tenure, the players are confused at the major league level. What to do???"
 
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To add, I've been listening to some old Pirates games (2012-2017 era) as I'm going to sleep, and it's downright staggering how much more internally developed talent those teams were able to churn out compared to the Pirates now. It's not even the big guns like McCutchen and Marte, those teams were constantly churning out MLB caliber players that would give them way more value than the shit that the Pirates have been claiming off waivers and throwing out there for the last few years.

I'm thinking of pieces like Mercer, Locke and Jones, basically either decent starters or good bench pieces that the team internally developed and were not considered top prospects. I think Suwinski fits in this category, but who else even falls in that category with this team? The 2012 Pirates turned guys like Swaggerty into solid regulars while they never got any hype as prospects, who are the Pirates of today doing that to?
 
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DocEmrickSkitters said:
Gonzales is striking out in 32% of his PAs as a 23 year old in AA.
The outright-bust chance is absolutely there. He can definitely impact a baseball though.

I do think this organization has a loser culture and it leads to call-ups pressing, because the lineup around them is so bad. Or a Hayes being counted on for more than what he is offensively. We need better players and more of them. Shelton has the loser's stench at this point too. For sure. And Haines gotta go, despite Tim's best attempt to cast it as "this year is product of Haines being a Driveline guy which makes him 100% correct, but the previous regime weren't Driveline guys and as such, 3 years into BC's tenure, the players are confused at the major league level. What to do???"
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Eh he's also walking like 15% of his PAs as a 23 year old and has OPSed at near .900 through the minors so far.

I think the power with him is evident and he'll be a good enough contact hitter to deal with any sort of strikeout issues with him.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
Eh he's also walking like 15% of his PAs as a 23 year old and has OPSed at near .900 through the minors so far.

I think the power with him is evident and he'll be a good enough contact hitter to deal with any sort of strikeout issues with him.
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Hiura is an obvious comp and Hiura is doing well this year.

I think Nick's gonna strike out a ton up here, but hopefully the power covers it. It's pretty clear that he's going to struggle to hit offspeed stuff from the right side. For him the key is going to be not swinging at it.

If Gonzales did hit though, and Castro was still doing well...what to do? A good problem to have. I love Castro.
 
One comp for Gonzales people may not like hearing though: Chavis.

Righty with a short power stroke who can barrel a baseball, but can't put it together.

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Michael Chavis Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

Check out the latest Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More of Michael Chavis. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, draft status, bats, throws, school and more on Baseball-reference.com
www.baseball-reference.com www.baseball-reference.com
 
DocEmrickSkitters said:
Hiura is an obvious comp and Hiura is doing well this year.

I think Nick's gonna strike out a ton up here, but hopefully the power covers it. It's pretty clear that he's going to struggle to hit offspeed stuff from the right side. For him the key is going to be not swinging at it.

If Gonzales did hit though, and Castro was still doing well...what to do? A good problem to have. I love Castro.
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I know Hirua has had some up and down problems in the majors so far, but a power hitting 2nd baseman who slashes like .250/.350/.450 isn't a bad piece at all. My concern with Gonzalez is more with his defense than his bat.

Not with Gonzalez specifically, but I do have some concern with how many of their near MLB ready prospect seem to not have a ton of great hitting tools. Suwinski, Cruz, Gonzalez and Davis all seem to be more of "power hitters who strike out a ton" type of hitters. I think getting guys like Bae, Marcano and Endy to pan out is super important to maximize the other power hitters within the system.

The other concern worth pointing out is that the Pirates have a lot of power hitters in positions you wouldn't associate with power hitters, so you're running out of positions for those needed contact hitters. You don't see contact hitters playing 1st base generally. You have a power hitter at SS with Cruz, and you have a pure defensive guy who can't hit at 3rd with Hayes. Basically, my concern is where you'd find defensive spots for those contact hitters you need to maximize the power hitters.
 
I don't want to give the impression that I'm more in on Peguero than I am, but I think one thing that's important with him is a more old school scouting and projection look. He's still just 21 and holding his own in AA. There's plus speed, some pop, and the frame and feel for middle infield. There's no way around the fact that he's been more bad than good since his very brief MLB stint (hence the 88 wRC+), but there's still a combination of tools there.

This is probably some kind of backhanded compliment, but I think he's still someone who I wouldn't want to see us trade too hastily. While I am hoping against hope that we might be able to swing some kind of non-Reynolds deal for board favorite Trevor Rogers in the future, I wouldn't want to move someone with Peguero's characteristics in a buy low deal. I guess bringing up Rogers is not a good example, because I'd make a deal centered there, or a deal centered on him and other prospects for a mid-rotation starter, but more generally with him I am in the camp of wait and see.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:
I know Hirua has had some up and down problems in the majors so far, but a power hitting 2nd baseman who slashes like .250/.350/.450 isn't a bad piece at all. My concern with Gonzalez is more with his defense than his bat.

Not with Gonzalez specifically, but I do have some concern with how many of their near MLB ready prospect seem to not have a ton of great hitting tools. Suwinski, Cruz, Gonzalez and Davis all seem to be more of "power hitters who strike out a ton" type of hitters. I think getting guys like Bae, Marcano and Endy to pan out is super important to maximize the other power hitters within the system.

The other concern worth pointing out is that the Pirates have a lot of power hitters in positions you wouldn't associate with power hitters, so you're running out of positions for those needed contact hitters. You don't see contact hitters playing 1st base generally. You have a power hitter at SS with Cruz, and you have a pure defensive guy who can't hit at 3rd with Hayes. Basically, my concern is where you'd find defensive spots for those contact hitters you need to maximize the power hitters.
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I think that it's far from certain that Gonzales pans out but I'm hopeful.

Davis has been injured most of the time but he made an awful lot of contact in college and I think he has the catcher plate discipline thing. I doubt he's a strikeout king.

Aside from that I agree with you...I'm looking for more balanced hitters. I want a guy like Reynolds who hits in the upper levels but keeps his K rate below 20%. I always thought that 30%+ was a no-go for hitters but seemingly everyone is surpassing that now. The old model was to find a great natural hitter with some latent power ability and then let him turn his latent power into actual power as he rounds into his physical prime at 25-30. With the exception of physical specimens who can't help but hit for power like Cruz, I guess I'm still a traditionalist that way.

Looking at our minors system...you have Endy with that profile. You could argue that Suwinski had that profile with Seattle in 2021 but he was still too three-outcomesey for my liking which is what is leading to the K problems here. Mitchell is having that kind of year in the minors but can't carry it to the majors. Triolo is having that kind of season now in AA but I gotta be honest...I saw him in person and there isn't a lot more physical projection there. He ain't gonna add power. And he's old already...I'd almost start him in PIT next year.

You also have all these lefty hitters that have feasted on the righty throwing 92 with no control of their breaking balls their entire career and are entirely unequipped to handle a MLB lefty.
 
DJ Spinoza said:
I don't want to give the impression that I'm more in on Peguero than I am, but I think one thing that's important with him is a more old school scouting and projection look. He's still just 21 and holding his own in AA. There's plus speed, some pop, and the frame and feel for middle infield. There's no way around the fact that he's been more bad than good since his very brief MLB stint (hence the 88 wRC+), but there's still a combination of tools there.

This is probably some kind of backhanded compliment, but I think he's still someone who I wouldn't want to see us trade too hastily. While I am hoping against hope that we might be able to swing some kind of non-Reynolds deal for board favorite Trevor Rogers in the future, I wouldn't want to move someone with Peguero's characteristics in a buy low deal. I guess bringing up Rogers is not a good example, because I'd make a deal centered there, or a deal centered on him and other prospects for a mid-rotation starter, but more generally with him I am in the camp of wait and see.
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You're definitely right that he has good tools, bat speed and age-to-level. If Peguero was a college junior this year he would have still gone in the first round.

At this point I'm reticent to trade ANY prospects given how poor our hit rate is right now. We need numbers. Plus if we believe in the player we should wait to see where we're at and if his value rebounds next year.
 
Nick Gonzales with another stellar night.

3-5 w/a 2B and no K's.

In 69 PA's he's .298/.420/.474/.894 w/a walk rate of 14.5 and K rate of 21.7. Those are more along the lines of what I'd expect from Gonzo when he's on point. Taking more walks and laying off the breaking stuff is improving. Even if you don't become a premium breaking ball hitter, you can still force teams to throw you fastballs by exercising patience as a lot of breaking stuff swung at is out of the zone.

Can't say enough about Endy. He was my pre-season player to watch as far as the hitters and biggest risers go. Also picked Jared Jones so that didn't go quite as well but DJ already touched on where Endy should be going, and that's way up prospect rankings lists. His D is rapidly improving and is now, from hearing whispers, the most likely C of the future for us. The bat is just absurd and while the sample size is basically Key Hayes from 2020, Endy has been crushing it since he came over.

MVP of the leage he played in last year and he was just under 900 OPS/140 wRC+

This year he was a .936 OPS in Greensboro and is now 1.240 in AA over 89 PA's. That's a 202 wRC+ and year to date OPS of .991. Obviously not sustainable but he's at 31 2B's/23 HR's which paces at 40+/30+ over a full year. Given he can switch hit legitimately, play C, 2B, LF, 1B, the value increases pretty significantly and hopefully is the buffer against Davis moving off C, which seems likely from what I'm hearing. He was bad again tonight behind the dish.

I don't think it's a stretch at all to call him the best prospect in our system. He won't get ranked that high and I, like most others, believes that Termarr is going to be an elite bat, but make no mistake. If Endy can be the primary C, showing plus D and hitting as he's done the past 2 years, that is more valuable than anything in the system as far as all around impact goes.

I don't see how you can keep him out of the top 100 at all, and honestly is it a stretch to put him inside the top 50?

 
I love the Endy love, but I have a player I would like us to target this winter: Jesse Winker. Discuss?
 
An early peek at the top of the 2022 draft class though we are talking small sample sizes obviously.

Jackson Holliday (who looks like he's about 14) ripped up the FCL w/an OPS over 1100, and over the first week in low A, he's at 640. Big thing that stands out for him is 16 walks in just 14 games vs 9 K's.

Elijah Green is still in the FCL and while he's hitting .302/.939 he's K'd a ridiculous 21 times in 52 PA's = 40%. Again, sample sizes but the K rate will be worth keeping an eye on as it was the one big red against him among most scouts.

Termarr Johnson started off extremely slow in the FCL (527 OPS), though the last few games in low A have seen that same number ballon to 961. While he's not walking quite as much, the BB rate is still an impressive 17% vs 21K%. More and more of these young HS are really advanced in terms of working counts.

Also want to point out that Termarr just turned 18 in June, so he's 2-4 years younger than most of the guys he's competing against now in low A.

Jake Berry (131 PA) at low A = .253/.703
Brooks Lee (71 PA) at high A = .296/.804 (was my favorite college player)
Gavin Cross (88 PA) at low A = .246/.934
Parada only has 22 AB's right now.
Jace Jung (103 PA) at high A = .241/.728
Zach Neto (85 PA) at AA = .308/.802
Cam Collier only has 35 PA in ACL but is over 1100.
 
TotesTorts said:
Nearly every hitter has regressed this year. Could be the growing pains of a new approach? or old fashioned bad coaching. I wish I had the faith in the organization to figure it out.
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Those coving the minors in depth have been commenting lately the Bucs are doing a lot of A-ball type significant adjustments to players games in AA, AAA, and MLB.

They're catching up, the first two years was evaluating and then putting in a new system with new staff. Now that the kids are learning the their way in FCL/Bradenton, the staff is addressing developmental issues yet to be addressed in older players.
 
I like Johnson from the eye test so far. Really aggressive but also good sense for the zone. Yesterday he worked most of the counts and when he got a pitch to do damage with, he either did the damage or was just off. I think it would be too aggressive to start him in Greensboro, but I think he could rise up by midseason next year.
 
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