OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[ChaosAgent]

I'm kinda buying into the Gorski hype. The size, the defense, the arm, hell he's got 17 SBs this year.

Could we have randomly found a 5-tool guy who flew under the radar with the COVID season and made adjustments? It feels like Matt Fraizier whose stock has now cratered, but Gorski has kept it up through this season.

I want to see him in Pittsburgh pretty soon. We need right handed hitting so badly. I like the cohort of prospects we have, really I do, but it's SO LEFT HANDED. Suwinski and Cruz aren't going to consistently hit lefties. We may not even have a place for Peguero. Gonzales may outright bust.
Getting a 2nd round pick who was "an adjustment away" to make it is huge.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Goeskis hit tool is the only question mark. The power and arm and speed are real.

Either he makes enough contact for it to matter or he is completely useless because he cant get on base.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'm kinda buying into the Gorski hype. The size, the defense, the arm, hell he's got 17 SBs this year.

Could we have randomly found a 5-tool guy who flew under the radar with the COVID season and made adjustments? It feels like Matt Fraizier whose stock has now cratered, but Gorski has kept it up through this season.

I want to see him in Pittsburgh pretty soon. We need right handed hitting so badly. I like the cohort of prospects we have, really I do, but it's SO LEFT HANDED. Suwinski and Cruz aren't going to consistently hit lefties. We may not even have a place for Peguero. Gonzales may outright bust.
Getting a 2nd round pick who was "an adjustment away" to make it is huge.

We have righty batters that could be difference makers in the upper levels right now. It won't happen this year but I think by next June you'll really start to see the tide turn.

Consider the following are all in AA:

Henry Davis
Nick Gonzales
Liover Peguero
Matt Gorski

 

[ChaosAgent]

We have righty batters that could be difference makers in the upper levels right now. It won't happen this year but I think by next June you'll really start to see the tide turn.

Consider the following are all in AA:

Henry Davis
Nick Gonzales
Liover Peguero
Matt Gorski

If the org is serious about Cruz staying at SS, I don't think Peguero is a Pirate long-term.
Castillo maybe or maybe shouldn't even be here but if he's gone we get worse against lefties. Ditto if Chavis is traded.

It has just been frustrating to watch so many lefties flail helplessly, Alvarez-style against left handed pitching. That Marcano puts together good at-bats against them gives me hope, as does Bae.

At a baseline, Davis will help significantly.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think the FO is on board with this idea to get players a lot of positional flexibility, so there's a world where we just keep these MI churning and you see who hits. Peguero is a guy who is still a lot of projection, but the tools might come together to be a nice player. He has the athleticism to move around, as does Cruz, so I think it's still wait and see.

Beating a dead horse with this one, but if it's me I ride out Cruz at shortstop as long as possible. Even if he's the shortstop only 60-70% of the time and DHs a lot outside of that, that's still way more valuable to the team than RF/DH (and even lots of errors wouldn't hugely dent that value).

All that said, I think there's the right kind of depth in the system where Cherington should get into the mix for Montas this summer. It has to be as part of a broader organizational commitment to spending in the immediate future, including on an extension for Montas, but ultimately I think you have to treat prospects like they are commodities, as cruel as that market logic is. If you use some to buy yourself an important MLB player, that's a win, provided you aren't doing it and then not re-signing etc. (To be crystal clear, I don't think there's any chance we'll actually enter the mix for Montas, nor do I think that even if we did, there's a path to re-signing him).

With Gorski, my sense is that people question his bat speed. He's putting up the kind of season where I think you consider continuing to aggressively promote him. Bae clearly deserves the first callup at this point, but 40-man stuff shouldn't be an issue for these guys. Even with this upcoming roster decision, it's time to start churning the players we've accumulated and finding out more about potential future pieces. This should be done in tandem with the idea to supplement the team this winter. It's good that Cherington is starting to talk the game of "we'll have the best 13 guys we can and if we have more depth, that's good for us", but depth for depth's sake isn't any good and it's time to try and push out some of the clutter, whether that's within and guys like Bae, Marcano, Gorski etc. carving out a role, or without as we make better small signings than Yoshi or Vogelbach.

 

[Gallatin]

If the org is serious about Cruz staying at SS, I don't think Peguero is a Pirate long-term.
Castillo maybe or maybe shouldn't even be here but if he's gone we get worse against lefties. Ditto if Chavis is traded.

It has just been frustrating to watch so many lefties flail helplessly, Alvarez-style against left handed pitching. That Marcano puts together good at-bats against them gives me hope, as does Bae.

At a baseline, Davis will help significantly.

Suwinski up to 5 home runs against Lefties now. Batting average sucks, but it's a hell of a good sign for the long term IMO.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm still so far into the "unconvinced, awaiting firing" camp on Shelton that it's hard to work up much concern about this, but the upcoming week should be a good test for the clubhouse/team. We lost two games that we should have won this weekend, and you could make an argument for Friday's game too. We should be able to win a series vs. the Nats, but it's also possible we could see more spiraling if we don't, as we then get the Brewers for 3 and the Yankees for 2, followed by a Reds doubleheader and more Brewers.

If we can win the series vs. the Nats and then maybe pull off 3-2 on the short homestand, we could position ourselves for a decent July, as the schedule really isn't that hard.

 

[Gallatin]

I'm still so far into the "unconvinced, awaiting firing" camp on Shelton that it's hard to work up much concern about this, but the upcoming week should be a good test for the clubhouse/team. We lost two games that we should have won this weekend, and you could make an argument for Friday's game too. We should be able to win a series vs. the Nats, but it's also possible we could see more spiraling if we don't, as we then get the Brewers for 3 and the Yankees for 2, followed by a Reds doubleheader and more Brewers.

If we can win the series vs. the Nats and then maybe pull off 3-2 on the short homestand, we could position ourselves for a decent July, as the schedule really isn't that hard.

I'm still trying to comprehend how you don't intentionally walk Harold Ramirez the other night with the winning run at 2nd. De Los Santos is a ground ball pitcher, and the next batter due up was a ground ball hitter, with a high strike out rate.

You always walk Harold Ramirez in that situation to set up the double play. I believe that's a fundamental thing right?

What the hell?

 

[MrBrightside]

I'm still so far into the "unconvinced, awaiting firing" camp on Shelton that it's hard to work up much concern about this, but the upcoming week should be a good test for the clubhouse/team. We lost two games that we should have won this weekend, and you could make an argument for Friday's game too. We should be able to win a series vs. the Nats, but it's also possible we could see more spiraling if we don't, as we then get the Brewers for 3 and the Yankees for 2, followed by a Reds doubleheader and more Brewers.

If we can win the series vs. the Nats and then maybe pull off 3-2 on the short homestand, we could position ourselves for a decent July, as the schedule really isn't that hard.

It's interesting. It really does feel like they are more competitive and are improving while at the same time they are 2-14 in their last 16 non-Cubs games. Some of that is bad luck, some of it is a younger team learning its way, but it also feels like they really just don't value results right now, for better or worse - and it's probably a bit of both - but it really feels to me like they need to start doing things more designed to win games than to worry about preserving guys on the 40-man who can't play or seeing what you have with crap like Banda and Chang. I do have concerns about the impending returns of a lot of guys who should not be taking AB's away from younger players, so it'll be an interesting week.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I think it might be true that they aren't valuing results that highly. Cherington has always sounded a different horn, but you would have to hope from the kind of rosters that he's assembled, he doesn't really have designs on winning. I have not really seen one sign outside of the Hayes extension that the organization is trying to shift gears and start committing themselves to a window.

I would like to think that such commitment is almost unavoidable for next year, given that there should be a decent wave of talent coming no matter what injuries / underperformance you pencil in. Obviously, things are a lot more different if you aren't seeing Burrows and Davis, but there are still pieces around the edges right now, and next year should entail at least something like an attempt at the wild card, with maybe the fallback of trading Reynolds if you aren't in the hunt.

The roster decisions seem like the first shoe to fall here. Mackey tweeted last night that VanMeter will be activated today, and I'd expect it to be a straight swap with Chang, but if it's Mitchell or even Park (who I think of more as org depth, though the same may be true of Mitchell eventually), that's an initial bad sign.

Within reason, I think we should probably be accommodating towards Gamel and especially Newman, as much as it pains me to say it. Not necessarily for playing time -- the worst thing that could happen would be Newman supplanting Cruz to any extent -- but at least to some kind of roles and an attempt to find them landing spots over the next month. And really, the sooner the better, since there's already not enough playing time to go around, and that's before factoring in Bae, a Swaggerty return, etc.

There's nothing that prevents us from cycling through a lot of the young guys for playing time and still trying to win, with the fallback being that we'll likely have an ugly 2-8 stretch or two again. The one place I might draw the line at the deadline is trading Quintana, since unless a surprise offer is there, it really won't do more than guarantee we're in for some terrible stretches.

 

[MrBrightside]

I agree with all of that other than Quintana - his last 7 starts he's averaging 4.6 IP, has a 5.18 ERA, and has given up 43 hits in 33 innings, all of which suggests to me that he's reverting back to the Quintana of the last 3-4 years for whom the return they got for Tyler Anderson would seem optimistic. But otherwise, yes. I just don't agree that building for the future doesn't (or can't) include trying to win now. I'm not suggesting that they pull off another Archer trade, but they can make roster decisions and in-game decisions that actually indicate an interest in winning games in 2022 without hurting the future. Ben seems to think they are mutually exclusive goals and I disagree with that - winning some games builds confidence and teaches winning habits and creates urgency that shrugging off a 5-15 stretch with bland aphorisms does not.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Cherington doesn't have the line up card or make the in game decisions. This is a point that I feel compelled to continue making until people digest it completely.

Shelton is the biggest problem and by extension, his staff. Now, Cherington is responsible for them being here in the first place, and I hope he doesn't think it's acceptable to have the record we do, starting next year as 2023 was the first year I expected us to push for a winning record. I'm more than fine with what Cherington has assembled (just look at the Fraizer trade which all of us were down on when it happened). That looks like a pretty big win right now. A good number of the draft picks have performed well/very well thus far. Other trades have panned out in the shorter term.

The talent is here and coming. The question is do we have the ML staff to maximize said talent, no matter how young it is, and it will be young.

I don't have confidence in Shelton or Haines, or Marin. That's where I am right now.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Just to make sure I was clear about Quintana, yes, I agree that the Anderson flier return would likely be optimistic for him. It's hard to predict what other MLB teams are looking for and what kind of random leverage Cherington could get, or if for example someone offered a change of scenery, Cole Tucker type that the FO liked (though given their track record on these guys...), but even in those cases, I think you just keep Quintana around because he'll eat innings for you down the stretch, and hopefully in PNC Park against weaker and middling opponents, give you a respectable chance to win.

Even in the case that we keep Quintana, we're barely two steps from more Eickhoff or Wilson. It's possible that Burrows gets a start or two in September, and maybe Bolton has things come together before then for a few starts at some point as well, but the depth is really bad. We need Thompson healthy and for Brubaker and Keller to remain firm, and then at least it's not a total shit show.

Just looking at the schedule, the quality of opponents never gets too overwhelming outside of a series or two until pretty late in the season. I think we could end up holding our own and at least making some progress, picking in the 6-7-8 range instead of 1-4, but there are a number of ways that we could end up exactly in that position again. I have a moderate degree of confidence that we'll stay ahead of the Reds, and the Nats, A's, and Royals are also probably safer bets, but it starts to get dicey even in comparison to some of them.

Aside from all this, I do not have a high degree of confidence in Cherington. The direction is pretty muddled -- even if he's going to just play wait and see forever with prospects and bring in no outside help, the path that's consistent with that is to play young players, so the upcoming decisions, especially JVM, Yoshi, and to an extent Gamel are real headscratchers in that regard.

 

[MrBrightside]

Cherington doesn't have the line up card or make the in game decisions. This is a point that I feel compelled to continue making until people digest it completely.

Shelton is the biggest problem and by extension, his staff. Now, Cherington is responsible for them being here in the first place, and I hope he doesn't think it's acceptable to have the record we do, starting next year as 2023 was the first year I expected us to push for a winning record. I'm more than fine with what Cherington has assembled (just look at the Fraizer trade which all of us were down on when it happened). That looks like a pretty big win right now. A good number of the draft picks have performed well/very well thus far. Other trades have panned out in the shorter term.

The talent is here and coming. The question is do we have the ML staff to maximize said talent, no matter how young it is, and it will be young.

I don't have confidence in Shelton or Haines, or Marin. That's where I am right now.

Giving Cherington a free pass on this is a bridge too far. Cherington is who assembled an organizational roster where one injury to a SP has resulted in a complete and total black hole in the rotation, and good luck not having another SP or two go down before the season is over - you always need 8-10 guys. And you hit on this and then dismissed it, but Cherington is responsible for the manager and the coaching staff, and if they aren't executing the organization's plan, they'd be told to do so or they'd be gone. It's very clear that Cherington approves of what is taking place or else it wouldn't continue.

 

[MrBrightside]

 

[ImporterExporter]

Yep, Hayes is just not that good a hitter right now. He's not bad, but is not making a noticable difference, certainly as a top of the order presence.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The follow up tweet that that guy makes is laughably bad. wRC+ doesn't just magically change based on an individual's performance in various isolated categories. It depends on the run environment. Hayes is producing at a slightly above average clip in 2022.

He is a star player and the least of the Pirates worries going forward.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'm fine with Hayes as a 4-WAR, defense first guy. He still has some upside in the bat and is decent enough regardless.

 

[DanielPlainview]

There are still issues somewhere in development in the minors. For years it seems like our guys hit a wall after AA. Who knows where Hayes would be if he didn’t come from a baseball family, and our best hitting young guys spent significant time in other systems. Beyond that the eye test just doesn’t check out. Our guys seem to be less advanced at the plate and frequently overwhelmed after the league gets a look at them.

 

[Gallatin]

Giving Cherington a free pass on this is a bridge too far. Cherington is who assembled an organizational roster where one injury to a SP has resulted in a complete and total black hole in the rotation, and good luck not having another SP or two go down before the season is over - you always need 8-10 guys. And you hit on this and then dismissed it, but Cherington is responsible for the manager and the coaching staff, and if they aren't executing the organization's plan, they'd be told to do so or they'd be gone. It's very clear that Cherington approves of what is taking place or else it wouldn't continue.

Yeah it's pretty obvious, BC is still in tank mode. I do wonder if the plan these last 18 months has been to pivot in 2023, or some other trigger related to player development?

And this is the way I've kinda seen it since the Tank finally began in late 2020. I wanted them to tear it down to the studs for a while, I'm happy they did it, and I'm fine with how they're doing it so far.

Next year is different. My expectations have been 23 is the first Pirates team in quite a while that will have a shot at .500. I would disagree with the plan if it didn't include some free agent help this off season. Or at least, more than we've seen from Cherington in previous years.

 

[MrBrightside]

I'm fine with Hayes as a 4-WAR, defense first guy. He still has some upside in the bat and is decent enough regardless.

Hayes is undoubtedly a good player. I just thought that was tweet was interesting given that I was told it was "insane" to compare Hayes' 2021 and 2022 stats because of the injury that supposedly impacted his power numbers in 2021.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Don't you love it when people who don't understand what the stats mean try to push an agenda based on those stats

 

[MrBrightside]

Don't you love it when people who don't understand what the stats mean try to push an agenda based on those stats

I don't know what SLG% and BA and ISO mean? Or are we still holding onto the "exit velocity is up 1.3 mph proving he was hurt but now is just unlucky" argument?

With the possible exception of 1996 Brady Anderson there's never been a player whose offensive reputation is more propped up by an interval of time that belies the rest of his career than the 85 AB's that Hayes received in garbage time of 2020. It's truly converted him from being a nice player to an ABSOLUTE GOD in the eyes so many Pirates' fans.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Famous last words, but I think this means the end of Chang.

 

[ImporterExporter]