Prospects who Have Stagnated

[Maverick41]

The mention of Carlsson really confuses me.
Just looking at the numbers, his rookie season is pretty similar to Tim Stützle, and I haven't really considered Timmy a stagnating prospect at any point so far.

To me Carlsson's trajectory is looking absolutely fine.

 

[bert]

That's fair but their rookie seasons didn't match the hype and it's a lesson to be learned here that even the best looking prospects rarely have a big impact in their rookie seasons to match the hype.

Yes they did. Both players showed elite level talent and skillsets for a D + 1. It's incredibly unique for a player to even play in the league at that age historically. You'd have to have a terrible basic understanding of historic production in the league for players at that age. Especially big players to think they didn't. Neither were a first overall pick.

 

[gifted88]

We can discuss Fantilli also.

All I heard coming into last season was that he was better than Jack Eichel, and would outdo his rookie season. Obviously you can't penalize a guy for an unfortunate injury, but pro rate it to 82 games and he averaged 11.5 points per 82 games worse than Eichel. A whole different category. Actually a fine rookie season for a 3OA, and he got better as the season went on, but all we heard was how Fantilli was better than the ordinary 3OA and he was picked over some pretty good players because Columbus had to win now and needed a center. Yet, he was like a league average forward and only split time at center.

I'll give him credit for being better than Carlsson, yet both were the wrong pick over Michkov. That'll be shown even further this season.


I named 11 players. Did you expect 11 or more paragraphs? I think for most of those players it's pretty self explanatory why they've stagnated. Before the draft people make every top 10 pick into a future all-star, and not all of them end up being that. Many don't satisfy their draft slot. Thus, they stagnate.

Carlsson is looking like a player who won't satisfy his draft slot, especially in the draft he was in. He might end up a fine 2OA for an average draft, but of course you can't leave out of the equation that he was taken over Michkov and then there's also the Fantilli discussion too, as the majority had Fantilli above Carlsson also. This was viewed as the best draft in years.

Carlsson's PPG was even lower than Fantilli with about 2 and a half minutes more ice time, and being babied by his team. Carlsson's stats likely would've been under .5PPG if he had to play every game and wasn't rotated in and out of the lineup so frequently to keep him fresh. Further, what I don't understand is why people act like Zegras can't play center, yet they are willing to just brush off that Carlsson was literally the absolute worst face off man in the NHL last season. He's young and I'm sure he'll get better, but there's a long way from last to respectable. Seems like a pretty big area of needed improvement and if he can't significantly improve then he's not a center. So much for drafting him because they wanted a center.

To me this reads as you prefer other prospects/players to the players you mentioned like Leo Carlsson rather than providing people with evidence on why Carlsson has stagnated.

What does Eichel or Michkov have to do with Carlsson or Fantilli's play in the NHL last season? What is the criteria for determining the stagnation of first year NHL players? So many unanswered questions.

Not believing these players will live up to their draft position is a different discussion entirely and is a fair opinion to make. But that's not the question being asked by OP.

 

[DJJones]

Don't see how Honzek fits here. He was injured all year and played worse due to it. Don't think they said what it was but sounded like a hernia to me.

If he's just injury prone then ya, he's a waste of a pick but not sure why he's lumped in with a bunch of guys two years older.

 

[zegrassyknoll]

Carlsson has 1 point in the last 4 months, the guy has clearly stagnated.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

This thread should have Marco Rossi and Brad Lamberts name all over it.

Both (I know especially in Lamberts case) were hyped big time by Will Scouching. And nothing major has come from either of them

 

[Guadana]

This thread should have Marco Rossi and Brad Lamberts name all over it.

Both (I know especially in Lamberts case) were hyped big time by Will Scouching. And nothing major has come from either of them

A lot of players were hyped by shcouching and were bashed by him. At least he learned something even if he can’t admit his previous mistakes.

 

[MoneyManny]

I don't think he's a bust. I don't think he's' a guarantee. I think his ceiling is Tatar. I'm prepared to give him time as a pro to see if he can be that sort of player.

I don't throw the baby out with the bathwater like so many are want to do now because someone hasn't met their expectations on their timeline. You'd have been in the camp of people that called Lafleur a bust and demanded his being traded after his first three seasons.

You're ignoring his playoffs to confirm your own bias. He quadrupled his point output. In ten games, he had 4 points more than Sale. Five more than Rehkopf - their leading scorer.

You know what they say about opinions. You're entitled to yours. Bye.

For every Lafleur there are 100 Kotkaniemis. One decent playoff run isn't nearly enough to erase an entire year of "meh".

If his ceiling is really Tatar as you say, he's going to need a few miracles to reach it.

 

[MoneyManny]

I mean the literal definition of stagnating is "cease developing".

That implies they are done developing.

Stagnating and being a disappointment/not living up to expectations are two completely different things...

Stagnation isn't set in stone and can definitely be just a temporary state for a player. I think your interpretation might be a little too dramatic lol.

 

[Bounces R Way]

This thread should have Marco Rossi and Brad Lamberts name all over it.

Both (I know especially in Lamberts case) were hyped big time by Will Scouching. And nothing major has come from either of them

..what?

Rossi just put up 21G and 40pts in his first full NHL season.
Lambert led his AHL team in scoring his first full AHL season.

That's not stagnating, that is in fact the opposite of stagnating.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

This thread should have Marco Rossi and Brad Lamberts name all over it.

Both (I know especially in Lamberts case) were hyped big time by Will Scouching. And nothing major has come from either of them

I would say Marco Rossi is the exact opposite of stagnant. He had a major set back post draft from myocarditis and missing a year. Since then, the year over year progress has been extremely impressive. 1 point in 19 games during his first stint and over 40 last season. He plays a good defensive game primarily, and has plenty more room to grow his game.

He spent all last summer training with the Wild development crew and is at it again this summer with Faber, Boldy and the guys competing for roster spots. He’s allegedly working very hard on his shot and has already been called out by the media for how much stronger he looks. Most guys take significant time to develop a shot that beats NHL goalies consistently, the ones that come into the league doing it are very rare, but he has a good base form and nice release once he gets consistent at picking his spots.

I also disagree that Lambos is stagnant, I have seen apparent improvement in his game at each of the last 3 dev/training camps and the development coaches all say the same thing about him growing his game. I think the case with him is some people overhyping pre-draft, but I can tell you that immediately post draft he looked at least 3 years away, and being a late 1st D man, that is right in line with expectations. Not saying he ever makes it, because he has a hard road to go still, but he has gotten better, maybe not as visibly on the scoresheet as some projected for him.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

I would say Marco Rossi is the exact opposite of stagnant. He had a major set back post draft from myocarditis and missing a year. Since then, the year over year progress has been extremely impressive. 1 point in 19 games during his first stint and over 40 last season. He plays a good defensive game primarily, and has plenty more room to grow his game.

He spent all last summer training with the Wild development crew and is at it again this summer with Faber, Boldy and the guys competing for roster spots. He’s allegedly working very hard on his shot and has already been called out by the media for how much stronger he looks. Most guys take significant time to develop a shot that beats NHL goalies consistently, the ones that come into the league doing it are very rare, but he has a good base form and nice release once he gets consistent at picking his spots.

I also disagree that Lambos is stagnant, I have seen apparent improvement in his game at each of the last 3 dev/training camps and the development coaches all say the same thing about him growing his game. I think the case with him is some people overhyping pre-draft, but I can tell you that immediately post draft he looked at least 3 years away, and being a late 1st D man, that is right in line with expectations. Not saying he ever makes it, because he has a hard road to go still, but he has gotten better, maybe not as visibly on the scoresheet as some projected for him.

Just a note, the poster was talking about Jets prospect Brad Lambert, not Carson Lambos. Although I can see why you might have read it that way with his name next to Rossi's haha

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Just a note, the poster was talking about Jets prospect Brad Lambert, not Carson Lambos. Although I can see why you might have read it that way with his name next to Rossi's haha

It was a reference to the OP who mentioned Lambos and a few others, not the person I quoted, but was intended as a separate thought, sorry for any confusion!

 

[Hockeyville USA]

It was a reference to the OP who mentioned Lambos and a few others, not the person I quoted, but was intended as a separate thought, sorry for any confusion!

Lambos may be progressing defensively from where he's been the past few years, but he's nowhere close to progressing to the level that everyone on here thought he'd be back when his hype train was at its highest in 2020. The offensive ceiling isn't high at this point either, which isn't a death sentence, but it's unfortunate for a guy who was thought to be a top 5-10 pick prior to his DY

 

[Russian_fanatic]

Ovechkin
Crosby
Malkin

They've clearly stagnated/regressed.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Justin Barron?

Probably the best example out there.

Reinbacher’s post draft season was certainly underwhelming. Too early to say he’s stagnated.

But a player like M Gulyayev had a much better post draft season as a guy that started his KHL season as a fringe number 7 but was playing a big and consistent middle pair role on a top KHL team by the playoffs.

Thats what progression looks like and it didn’t happen for Reinbacher last year.

Reinbacher was a prime example of a good player on an awful team. His numbers in Laval improved a lot and we probably wouldn’t have this conversation right now had he stayed the whole year in Laval.

I’ve seen his pre-season game in Montreal and two games in Laval and he was noticeably better at the end of the season. I thought he was also better than Mailloux both times I saw him in Laval. At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if he win a spot at training camp and start the year in Montreal

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

This thread has turned into an opportunity for many posters to try to knock rival fans prospects.

It's been an entertaining thread to watch this unfold lol

 

[GermanSpitfire]

This thread has turned into an opportunity for many posters to try to knock rival fans prospects.

It's been an entertaining thread to watch this unfold lol

it’s a good read

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Saying Dalibor Dvorsky stalled is a ridiculous take. After leaving a SHL team whose only concern was winning now to avoid relegation thus stapled him to the bench for 57 minutes a game, he absolutely dominated at Sudbury. He's got a chance to earn a roster spot out of camp. That's the high end of the trajectory we expected from him when we drafted him.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Saying Dalibor Dvorsky stalled is a ridiculous take. After leaving a SHL team whose only concern was winning now to avoid relegation thus stapled him to the bench for 57 minutes a game, he absolutely dominated at Sudbury. He's got a chance to earn a roster spot out of camp. That's the high end of the trajectory we expected from him when we drafted him.

Part of it is that a large number of people think the CHL completely sucks, which isn't true. Maybe not the ideal place for him to play, but it was great for him to get big minutes and get his confidence back. Now he needs to be tested in bigger minutes, probably in the A

 

[wetcoast]

This thread should have Marco Rossi and Brad Lamberts name all over it.

Both (I know especially in Lamberts case) were hyped big time by Will Scouching. And nothing major has come from either of them

Rossi is fair but there was lost time in development as well but Lambert's perceived value dropped already and he was a low 1st rounder who actually is having incredible stats in the AHL given his age so he doesn't fit here as his value is very high given his draft position.

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

Because being physically mature before your peers brings no advantages against men. It would be a great argument if he did play in junior, but he didn't.

He played in the same level in his D and D+1 year, against men. His regression/stagnation in his D+1 cannot be explained by being physically mature early.

So, playing against men only matters when it's not Demidov vs Michkov, got it. lol Reinbacher had a horrific D+1 for a 5 OA pick and trends to be a middle pairing type as it currently sits tbh.

 

[Seb]

So, playing against men only matters when it's not Demidov vs Michkov, got it. lol Reinbacher had a horrific D+1 for a 5 OA pick and trends to be a middle pairing type as it currently sits tbh.

It is not what I said AT ALL, I don't think you understood my point correctly.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Part of it is that a large number of people think the CHL completely sucks, which isn't true. Maybe not the ideal place for him to play, but it was great for him to get big minutes and get his confidence back. Now he needs to be tested in bigger minutes, probably in the A

He needs to prove he can succeed against men. He’s had a few rough seasons against men.

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

I'd say Charlie Stramel, but perhaps it's less stagnation and more regression.