Prospects who have stagnated.

[Fatass]

Reinbacher’s post draft season was certainly underwhelming. Too early to say he’s stagnated.

But a player like M Gulyayev had a much better post draft season as a guy that started his KHL season as a fringe number 7 but was playing a big and consistent middle pair role on a top KHL team by the playoffs.

Thats what progression looks like and it didn’t happen for Reinbacher last year.

Some guys physically mature before their peers and just don’t improve a lot after they’re drafted. Not too sure if Reinbacher falls into that group, but (imo) Shane Wright certainly does.

 

[LeProspector]

Honzek will be fine. He had an injury plagued season. He doesn't have IQ problems; it was actually seen as a strength going into the draft. Here is a quote. It's his skating that was questioned.

"Equal parts goal scorer and playmaker. Sound hockey IQ. Understands how to play responsibly in all three zones. His skating will need to improve another 10 per cent for the NHL game."

Injuries are a big factor with prospects and is a big reason why many don’t make it as previously anticipated.

It’s a valid excuse as to why a prospect fails to live up to expectations, but when a prospect does deal with injuries, it is a cause for concern and prospects stagnate all the time when/after dealing with them.

I liked what I saw of Sillinger at the end of the season although

I think it’s fair, and maybe he see’s more improvement going into next season. But to say he wasn’t rushed and lost his momentum as a prospect is false.

 

[Peasy]

Development is not linear. Saying a prospect has stagnated after just a single year post draft is kinda insane. You see young players have one off meh years all the time, does that mean they completely stagnated then?

Lucas Raymond. D -> D+1 improves his point totals slightly. D+1 -> D+2 puts up 57 in the NHL. D+2 -> D+3 down to 45 points. I bet you at this point you could find people that said hes stagnated and wont become a great offensive threat in the nhl. Well the next season, D+4 he puts up 72 points.

If a player has shown really no improvement or change over the course of 2+ seasons then sure, they might be stagnating. But saying a d+1 stagnated is kinda wild and extremely short sighted imo.

 

[Kingpin794]

Development is not linear. Saying a prospect has stagnated after just a single year post draft is kinda insane. You see young players have one off meh years all the time, does that mean they completely stagnated then?

Lucas Raymond. D -> D+1 improves his point totals slightly. D+1 -> D+2 puts up 57 in the NHL. D+2 -> D+3 down to 45 points. I bet you at this point you could find people that said hes stagnated and wont become a great offensive threat in the nhl. Well the next season, D+4 he puts up 72 points.

If a player has shown really no improvement or change over the course of 2+ seasons then sure, they might be stagnating. But saying a d+1 stagnated is kinda wild and extremely short sighted imo.

But s**t-talking prospects really is a kink for some of these folks.

 

[HighLifeManIsHigh]

Was the right decision to trade Elmer Soderblom away in my keeper league last year

How deep is your league?! I had Elmer for a couple years and dropped him. I’m surprised there’s a league out there that’s deeper than the one I’m in where someone actually traded for him.

 

[Dan Patrick]

Development is not linear. Saying a prospect has stagnated after just a single year post draft is kinda insane. You see young players have one off meh years all the time, does that mean they completely stagnated then?

Lucas Raymond. D -> D+1 improves his point totals slightly. D+1 -> D+2 puts up 57 in the NHL. D+2 -> D+3 down to 45 points. I bet you at this point you could find people that said hes stagnated and wont become a great offensive threat in the nhl. Well the next season, D+4 he puts up 72 points.

If a player has shown really no improvement or change over the course of 2+ seasons then sure, they might be stagnating. But saying a d+1 stagnated is kinda wild and extremely short sighted imo.

The other side of this is that for every Lucas Raymond or Tage Thompson there are a sea of prospects who never figure it out. They keep having mediocre seasons and either wash out of the NHL completely or get relegated to bottom 6 players and never live up to the expectations.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

How deep is your league?! I had Elmer for a couple years and dropped him. I’m surprised there’s a league out there that’s deeper than the one I’m in where someone actually traded for him.

18-team salary cap league with 50-man roster limit.

We're actually looking for an owner at the moment if you're interested. PM me if so

 

[Hins77]

Reinbacher’s post draft season was certainly underwhelming. Too early to say he’s stagnated.

But a player like M Gulyayev had a much better post draft season as a guy that started his KHL season as a fringe number 7 but was playing a big and consistent middle pair role on a top KHL team by the playoffs.

Thats what progression looks like and it didn’t happen for Reinbacher last year.

Reinbacher was the best D at the end of the season in the AHL for Laval, at 19 years old.. Reinbacher would have been the best defensemen in the OHL, if he would have play there. Swiss league is a tough one, especially for a 19 years old guy playing a lot of minutes on the worst team…. So i cannot say stagnating in his case cause I really like what I saw in the AHL

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I'd say Drew Helleson fits the criteria. 2nd rounder who was supposed to be more of safe pick, if not with the greatest upside. Progressed well through three college seasons following his draft, signed at the end of his college season in D+3 (after being traded to ANA with a 2nd round pick for Josh Manson) and saw significant AHL time that year (17 regular season games and two in the playoffs).

2022/23 (D+4) was his first full season as a pro, he had the usual rookie defenseman growing pains in the AHL but showed well enough to earn a three game NHL debut at season's end, where most of us agreed he handled himself quite well.

This past season (D+5) you would have expected him to step up and solidify his status as an NHL option, having a full pro season and NHL debut under his belt. He did deal with a couple injuries, one that had him out for a couple weeks shortly into the new year and another that made him miss a month from late Feb to late March (possibly preventing an NHL call up when the Ducks moved Lybushkin).

Nonetheless, it doesn't speak well to Helleson's development this season, that he saw zero NHL time as a D+5 23 year old, for a bad team that gave significant minutes to several younger D (Mintyukov, Luneau, Lacombe, Zellweger) and two waiver pickups (Lagesson/Lindstrom). I think it's safe to say he's plateaued to some degree and has reached a bit of a make or break point for this coming year, where he will be turning 24 and completing his ELC.

 

[hawksrule]

Lukas Reichel was ppg in the A and had 16 points in 23 games when called up. Then completely shat the bed last year. May not have been entirely his fault as they tried him at center to start the year, but he never got in sync anywhere in the lineup, and was awful. This is a make or break year for him.

 

[Peasy]

How deep is your league?! I had Elmer for a couple years and dropped him. I’m surprised there’s a league out there that’s deeper than the one I’m in where someone actually traded for him.

I'm in a 12 team dynasty league with 50 minor spots and then a 25 man reg roster with salary cap. Basically any prospect that could have value will be owned until theyre no longer eligible.

 

[LeProspector]

Lukas Reichel was ppg in the A and had 16 points in 23 games when called up. Then completely shat the bed last year. May not have been entirely his fault as they tried him at center to start the year, but he never got in sync anywhere in the lineup, and was awful. This is a make or break year for him.

This is a good example

 

[Haatley]

Injuries are a big factor with prospects and is a big reason why many don’t make it as previously anticipated.

It’s a valid excuse as to why a prospect fails to live up to expectations, but when a prospect does deal with injuries, it is a cause for concern and prospects stagnate all the time when/after dealing with them.


I think it’s fair, and maybe he see’s more improvement going into next season. But to say he wasn’t rushed and lost his momentum as a prospect is false.

Conveniently didn't mention the fact that you questioned his IQ while he has been praised for it by scouts and analysts across the board. To me, this is a clear case of watching stats rather than sharing knowledge on the player. It's fine. But it's not a good way to analyze prospects.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Samuel Honzek
A terrible year for a top-20 pick. He has the size and speed but doesn’t have the brain. For a 19 year old in his last season of junior to not even put up PPG numbers is insane given his draft position. Progression has stagnated.

Totally agree with your assessment, but worth tempering this a little bit to factor in that he had some injury struggles this year and was on a pretty terrible Giants team once returning, so I don't know how much to read into the point totals.

That said, didn't like the pick at the time. Feels like the Flames picked based on size with this one given the other names on the board and now it appears to be biting them.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Zac Jones.

Felt like NYR just haven't ever given him a chance or role that fits him.

 

[Czechboy]

Basically all the Czechs in the last decade.lol.

Using the big boys theory.. here are Czechs that were high picks and most likely done on NHL

Hajek
Zboril
Kaut
Zadina

Currently Sale (still early) is off to a bad start.

Chytil may also be close to the end with the head injuries but he was trending beautifully.

This group stays healthy and near potential and we have a healthy NHL group.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Not necessarily a prospect, but seeing alot of 2019 names on this list...has Mo Seider progressed at all since his rookie year? Not calling him a bad player, moreso speaks on how impressive he was as a rookie...but he's sorta just the exact same.

 

[Realgud]

Development is not linear. Saying a prospect has stagnated after just a single year post draft is kinda insane. You see young players have one off meh years all the time, does that mean they completely stagnated then?

Lucas Raymond. D -> D+1 improves his point totals slightly. D+1 -> D+2 puts up 57 in the NHL. D+2 -> D+3 down to 45 points. I bet you at this point you could find people that said hes stagnated and wont become a great offensive threat in the nhl. Well the next season, D+4 he puts up 72 points.

If a player has shown really no improvement or change over the course of 2+ seasons then sure, they might be stagnating. But saying a d+1 stagnated is kinda wild and extremely short sighted imo.

He mentioned these players because he thinks they have stagnated, but he never said they "completely stagnated" and can't improve from here.

I think him saying "players who maybe aren’t going to make it as once thought" is the opinion you could contest based on the point you are trying to make with your post.

 

[Peasy]

He mentioned these players because he thinks they have stagnated, but he never said they "completely stagnated" and can't improve from here.

I think him saying "players who maybe aren’t going to make it as once thought" is the opinion you could contest based on the point you are trying to make with your post.

I mean the literal definition of stagnating is "cease developing".

That implies they are done developing.

Stagnating and being a disappointment/not living up to expectations are two completely different things...

 

[LeProspector]

Conveniently didn't mention the fact that you questioned his IQ while he has been praised for it by scouts and analysts across the board. To me, this is a clear case of watching stats rather than sharing knowledge on the player. It's fine. But it's not a good way to analyze prospects.

I can question what I want. People can’t have differing opinions on the same subject?

Totally agree with your assessment, but worth tempering this a little bit to factor in that he had some injury struggles this year and was on a pretty terrible Giants team once returning, so I don't know how much to read into the point totals.

That said, didn't like the pick at the time. Feels like the Flames picked based on size with this one given the other names on the board and now it appears to be biting them.

This is a great post. And I absolutely agree.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Not necessarily a prospect, but seeing alot of 2019 names on this list...has Mo Seider progressed at all since his rookie year? Not calling him a bad player, moreso speaks on how impressive he was as a rookie...but he's sorta just the exact same.

I'd say he's been hurt by terrible coaching and usage.

He whips the puck around on the PP but they refuse to give him more PP time because they'd rather him continue accruing his historically tough defensive minutes.

Probably why counting stats give the impression of stagnation.

 

[Topcheese31]

Tyler Boucher.

Two year ago he was in IR, still there in 2024. lol

 

[Seb]

Some guys physically mature before their peers and just don’t improve a lot after they’re drafted. Not too sure if Reinbacher falls into that group, but (imo) Shane Wright certainly does.

Reinbacher played his draft season against men. He most definitely does not fall into this category.

 

[nbducksfan19]

I guess the truth hurts.

well, there is a pretty strong consensus that you are wrong, so you tell me if the truth hurts.

 

[Fatass]

Reinbacher played his draft season against men. He most definitely does not fall into this category.

What does where a guy plays in their draft year have to do with when they physically mature? A previous poster suggested Reinbacher stagnated. Maybe the player did mature earlier than his draft year peers? Like you say, he was playing against men.