Prospects since 2020 on the verge of busting

[Miller Time]

If Mailloux was good, he would have already made the Canadiens putrid defence, as a 2021 draft pick, he’s defensively on the verge of being labeled a bust.

OP said this:
“or at the very least, ending up as something much lower than what they were”
If that isn’t Alexis Lafreniere, I don’t know what is lol

You don't follow hockey very closely, do you?

Here's an idea, perhaps start by getting familiar with how many dmen from the first 3 rounds of 2021 have made it to NHL regular status.

 

[FissionFire]

This coming from the guy talking about the "eye test" but hasn't actually watched Hutson! I've already talked about his play and stats but apparently a what Detroit fan? Knows more but can't seem to back up anything he says. Where is this statistical evidence? Show me how a rookie relied upon for 22 minutes+ a game is a "defensive black hole", don't cry when you get called out.

You haven’t posted a single stat yet aside from plus/minus and ice time, neither of which measure defensive results in any meaningful way. You are just plain trolling and living on emotion with zero actual useful stats to back up anything you’ve claimed.

 

[LeProspector]

You don't follow hockey very closely, do you?

Here's an idea, perhaps start by getting familiar with how many dmen from the first 3 rounds of 2021 have made it to NHL regular status.

at the top of the draft, the guys that are going to be everyday quality NHLers, are already in the NHL full time.

The only one for my money that isn’t yet, is Scott Morrow.

 

[Miller Time]

at the top of the draft, the guys that are going to be everyday quality NHLers, are already in the NHL full time.

The only one for my money that isn’t yet, is Scott Morrow.

Mailloux was drafted 31st.

Of the 32 first round picks that year, only 13 have played a full NHL season so far (only 4 of them Dmen).

Of the 8 dmen picked in the 1st round, only 5 have more NHL games so far... 4 of them were top 10 picks & 1 only got spot duty in Chicago this year given their major roster holes.

Mailloux has been better in the AHL than the other first round dmen who haven't made the jump yet.

Frankly, I'm not all that high on Mailloux's ceiling, but your take is completely absent of any realistic context. As far as NHL prospect dmen, he's easily on par or ahead of the curve relative to his draft class peers.

 

[jfhabs]

He just turned 22. He needs to work on his defense but it's not his style, he will always be an offensive D-man. The work with him is to bring his defensive game to a passable level.
His offensive game is high end (4 pts in 7 games in the NHL this year).

There are only 10 D-man in the NHL from that draft. Mailloux was a very late 1st rounder. Unfair to label him as a bust.

It's too early to draw conclusion on the 2020 draft, specially for defensemen and goaltenders. Heck many guys are still in the NCAA at 22.

Forwards, we have a pretty good look by now I think.

 

[LeProspector]

Mailloux was drafted 31st.

Of the 32 first round picks that year, only 13 have played a full NHL season so far (only 4 of them Dmen).

Of the 8 dmen picked in the 1st round, only 5 have more NHL games so far... 4 of them were top 10 picks & 1 only got spot duty in Chicago this year given their major roster holes.

Mailloux has been better in the AHL than the other first round dmen who haven't made the jump yet.

Frankly, I'm not all that high on Mailloux's ceiling, but your take is completely absent of any realistic context. As far as NHL prospect dmen, he's easily on par or ahead of the curve relative to his draft class peers.

Look at the defenders from the class. Power/Edvinsson/Hughes are clear success’ Clarke looks good too.

Lambos and Ceulemans are going to be outright busts. I have zero doubt with that.

Allen/Maillioux are both are unimpressive defenders who couldn’t crack really weak defences in their D+4. Certainly not tracking well and both don’t pass the eye test. Allen has a better chance as a shutdown guy given more development, though I’m doubtful.

Ryker Evans/Olen Zellweger have made the show, and look promising.

Buium looks decent, but Detroit has so many young defenders, he’s going to get caught in the numbers game. Then Morrow looks like a good one, just stuck behind a really good defence in Carolina. Orlov/Burns replacement.

Chayka/Roger//Nause all Busts.

Heimosalmi/Grushnikov/Peart/Iorio/Behruns all don’t look great, and all I’d call busts at this point although I have a soft spot for Grushnikov since he’s a mean MFer and can hit and play defence.

Then JJ Moser is a top-4 defender.

It’s quite easy to project how these kids are going to turn out from here.

I’m Mailloux’s case, if he doesn’t crack the lineup with Montreal, the team that picked him even with his demons, the team that wants him to succeed more than any other, the team that put all that time and money into his development. He’s not going to make it with anyone, because no one is going to care about him as much as the team that drafted him. Every team out there has prospects like Mailloux.

 

[Miller Time]

Look at the defenders from the class. Power/Edvinsson/Hughes are clear success’ Clarke looks good too.

Lambos and Ceulemans are going to be outright busts. I have zero doubt with that.

Allen/Maillioux are both are unimpressive defenders who couldn’t crack really weak defences in their D+4. Certainly not tracking well and both don’t pass the eye test. Allen has a better chance as a shutdown guy given more development, though I’m doubtful.

Ryker Evans/Olen Zellweger have made the show, and look promising.

Buium looks decent, but Detroit has so many young defenders, he’s going to get caught in the numbers game. Then Morrow looks like a good one, just stuck behind a really good defence in Carolina. Orlov/Burns replacement.

Chayka/Roger//Nause all Busts.

Heimosalmi/Grushnikov/Peart/Iorio/Behruns all don’t look great, and all I’d call busts at this point although I have a soft spot for Grushnikov since he’s a mean MFer and can hit and play defence.

Then JJ Moser is a top-4 defender.

It’s quite easy to project how these kids are going to turn out from here.

I’m Mailloux’s case, if he doesn’t crack the lineup with Montreal, the team that picked him even with his demons, the team that wants him to succeed more than any other, the team that put all that time and money into his development. He’s not going to make it with anyone, because no one is going to care about him as much as the team that drafted him. Every team out there has prospects like Mailloux.

Your assessments are quite poor across the board. Agree to disagree.

& fyi if it's "quite easy to project how these kids will turn out", you might want to sell your insights to the highest bidder rather than give them away for free on a message board

 

[viceroy]

Those are guys that played NHL games early, and were overrated because of it, even though they’re going to be bottom-6 pieces.

The heck are you on about? Beck was always seen as a 3rd line Centre, maybe even a great future 3rd line Centre. First off he's a 2nd Rounder who's gotten a taste of the Bigs even in his D+1. He now plays an important spot on the AHL's top team. There's a reason the Habs aren't planning on re-signing Dvorak and Armia. Because guys like Beck, Florian Xhekaj, Luke Tuch and hopefully Jared Davidson will be ready to make the jump next season.

I’m Mailloux’s case, if he doesn’t crack the lineup with Montreal, the team that picked him even with his demons, the team that wants him to succeed more than any other, the team that put all that time and money into his development. He’s not going to make it with anyone, because no one is going to care about him as much as the team that drafted him. Every team out there has prospects like Mailloux.

*sigh* When you don't know what you're talking about it's always best to bite your tongue. Mailloux has every skill needed to be a good Defenseman save for practice. He came up during COVID and a... peccadillo that made him lose a couple of years of play during a crucial time in a player's development. We were hoping for the best and it took quite a bit of time for him to hone the defensive aspect of his game. But now during these AHL playoffs he really looks like he's putting it all together.

The kid may never be a defensive stalwart but he's big, fast, strong, has hands and can be quite mean. MTL has no regrets in picking him.

 

[BleedBlue14]

I think draft picks between 2020-2021, is the range to start questioning their ability to make the next level. Focusing on first rounders here's the list:

2020
Alexander Holtz - While he should be a full time NHLer, he's now 23 and still spending some time in the AHL. Given he was drafted this high - you'd expect more.
Hendrix Lapierre - In that awkward phase of a tweener. Seems to be too good for the A but not quite ready for the bigs.
Justin Barron - An offensive defenceman producing hardly any offence. I wouldn't be surprised to see him waived relatively soon.
Brendan Brisson - He's shown flashes, but for now I'd say he's not an NHLer.
Ozzy Wiesblatt - Finally seems to have taken a huge step forward. But next year will be his make it or break it year.

Flat Out Busts
Jacob Perreault - No chance of being an NHLer.

2021
Tyler Boucher - Hasn't really shown much as a 10th overall pick. While I'm not quite ready to write him off, he doesn't look like an NHLer.
Xavier Bourgault - Also not a guy that I see making the next step. Simply no improvements in the last three years.
Fabian Lysell - Took a step back this year. Will have a hard time making it next year battling with Minten/Poitras/Locmelis/Farinacci/Merkulov
Corson Ceulemans - Guy has been surpassed by numerous defensive prospects in CBJ, thinking he won't get a chance there.
Carson Lambos. - Similar to Ceulemans, hasn't stood out compared to other defensive prospects and with Buium/Jiricek/Spacek knocking on the door, seems like he could fall out of favour.
Chase Stillman - hate to say it, but this is gonna be a flat out bust of a pick.
Zach Dean - Another guy who's stagnated with injury issues. Probably doesn't make it to the next step.

Don’t really disagree with your takes. However, in regards to Dean I wouldn’t write him off yet. He likely carves out a shorter term career as a bottom 6 winger if all else fails. Physical enough, loss of the year due to injury is pretty rough though, he looked poised and was set up to get time with the NHL club this season if he were healthy.

 

[LeProspector]

The heck are you on about? Beck was always seen as a 3rd line Centre, maybe even a great future 3rd line Centre. First off he's a 2nd Rounder who's gotten a taste of the Bigs even in his D+1.

You can’t make this shit up - if you followed the previous discussion at all! You would have realized that this EXACT sentence is what I was pointing out to be something fans latch onto after a player has a strong training camp or plays a few NHL games early in their career. I used Beck as an example as that, and how he goes overrated because of it. f***ING HILARIOUS you used the exact trope I called out.

*sigh* When you don't know what you're talking about it's always best to bite your tongue. Mailloux has every skill needed to be a good Defenseman save for practice. He came up during COVID and a... peccadillo that made him lose a couple of years of play during a crucial time in a player's development. We were hoping for the best and it took quite a bit of time for him to hone the defensive aspect of his game. But now during these AHL playoffs he really looks like he's putting it all together.

The kid may never be a defensive stalwart but he's big, fast, strong, has hands and can be quite mean. MTL has no regrets in picking him.

Montreal already has a black hole defensively, they can’t afford 2 on the same team. If he isn’t going to make it in Montreal, he’s not going to make it at all.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Montreal already has a black hole defensively, they can’t afford 2 on the same team. If he isn’t going to make it in Montreal, he’s not going to make it at all.

This is where I disagree with that statement.

If he is traded away it's because a team believe he can do the job and plan to give him that role.

Mailloux has a lot of top quality that make teams salivate about his potential role in the NHL. His profile reminds me a bit of Sheldon Souray or Dougie Hamilton . He has a booming shot, he can run the PP, he is physical, he can skate, he is right handed. Every NHL team would want that. For instance, players like Gostibehere or DeAngelo still had a role in the NHL even though they have defensive limitation.

It's only the Habs that are scared to find a role for him. He should be given a fair chance to the NHL next year, especially now that Savard is gone. Every team would want a guy like him in their roster.

 

[Doublechin]

This is where I disagree with that statement.

If he is traded away it's because a team believe he can do the job and plan to give him that role.

Mailloux has a lot of top quality that make teams salivate about his potential role in the NHL. His profile reminds me a bit of Sheldon Souray or Dougie Hamilton . He has a booming shot, he can run the PP, he is physical, he can skate, he is right handed. Every NHL team would want that. For instance, players like Gostibehere or DeAngelo still had a role in the NHL even though they have defensive limitation.

It's only the Habs that are scared to find a role for him. He should be given a fair chance to the NHL next year, especially now that Savard is gone. Every team would want a guy like him in their roster.

There's an easy path for Mailloux to become an NHLer, wherever that is with MTL or not is the only question

 

[crazyhawk]

Yakemchuk.

Really? Gotta be a Habs fan.
Yak is gonna dominate ... at least that's my 2c projection.

 

[Ford Prefect]

If Mailloux was good, he would have already made the Canadiens putrid defence, as a 2021 draft pick, he’s defensively on the verge of being labeled a bust.

OP said this:
“or at the very least, ending up as something much lower than what they were”
If that isn’t Alexis Lafreniere, I don’t know what is lol

He was a '21 draft pick who, for reasons everyone knows (other than Covid), lost a substantial developmental period. He was the leading rookie d-man scorer in the AHL last year, and is a top pairing d-man on the #1 seed Rockets' Calder-favourite blueline. He has excellent offensive upside, though still needs to work on his defensive game. He's physical and will be a fixture on defence in the next 2 years. The reason he hasn't been called up other than when injuries necessitated it (he did have 2g-3a in 8gp though) was because the team cares about his development. No more Victor Mete's where they ruin potential by rushing up someone who isn't ready. Their job is to give him the best opportunity to succeed and by extension benefit the club. It doesn't mean that he couldn't play in the NHL this past season, just that he (and the team) would have been better served by him getting more time in an instructive environment.

I think it's safe to say that you know squat of what you speak. You don't watch players, but jump to conclusions based on nothing more than your erroneous expectations of a timeline a player must follow to be successful. I'm more inclined to believe the players are more likely to succeed than not for no other reason than your opinion of them.

 

[Ford Prefect]

Really? Gotta be a Habs fan.
Yak is gonna dominate ... at least that's my 2c projection.

Someone drafted 11 months ago is a bust? I think that makes everyone not named Celebrini from the '24 draft a bust.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

William Wallinder
Theodore Niederbach
Cross Hanas
Dylan James
Shai Buium

Red wings second rounders from 2020-2022.

Wallinder and Buium have a chance to see games for a cup of coffee but I don’t think any will be NHL regulars.