Prospects since 2020 on the verge of busting

[rocketdan9]

Lysell looked like the best player on the ice with the puck on his stick in his recent callup. He was usually top three in advanced metrics as well. He is incredibly dynamic with the puck, starting to think he is going to have to play for another org to get a real opportunity however.

He was a no show at the AHL Playoffs. 2 assists and no goals in 7 games. A non factor. Also benched for one of the games. In 11 total AHL playoff games, 3 assists and 0 goals.

He avoids the physicality part of the game. But also lacks high skills(even at the AHL level) to properly graduate to the NHL.

He can skate and carry the puck and cause some issues with his slipperyness. But when the space is taken away, he is ineffective in NA ice.

I hope he can prove people like me wrong for next season. But his time is running out..

 

[EveryDay]

First of all, you have to remember he is a late birthday, so although you want to compare him against his draft mates, it makes more sense to compare him to the kids in the 2022 class, instead. As those are the kids he played against growing up. That’s how I view it anyway.

Everything he has done since being drafted has been a disappointment. His D+1 season in Vancouver going below P/PG in limited action was unacceptable as a 16th overall pick. Then this year, had some pedestrian numbers in the AHL. Compare it to a Dalibor Dvorsky/Bradly Nadeau/Jani Nyman or Yegor Sidorov it’s very disappointing.

In my opinion, a prospect “making the team out of camp” or a prospect that had a “step by training camp” are things a fanbase can easily get caught up in and tend to overrate their prospect because of it. There are too many examples throughout the years.

Victor Mete
Owen Beck
Fraser Minten
Hendrix Lapierre
Matthew Poitras
Liam Foudy
Juuso Valimaki
Ville Heinola
Peyton Krebs
Alex Burmistrov
Daniel Sprong
Curtis Lazar
Mikhail Grigoreinko
Dennis Cholowski

And that’s just off the top of my head…

Owen Beck and Fraser Minten would be Ottawa no1 prospect right now, they aren't overrated.

 

[EveryDay]

Every metric says he was bad. The eye test confirms it. All you are throwing out is plus/minus as a defense, universally agreed upon as the most useless stat to evaluate defensive play out there. Look at his zone start stats. Look at his QoC. Look at literally anything that is useful and it paints a very clear picture. He’s a barely above replacement level defensively THiS PAST YEAR. Will he continue to be awful? I doubt it of course he will improve. But pretending he was anything more than a Mike Green type of defender THiS SEASON is just lying to yourself.

Compare the metrics with all MTL defenceman, you will find that he's among the best on his team. He's ahead of Savard, Matheson, Xhekaj and Struble.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Mailloux busting? He is on path to become a very pro defenseman. Best defenseman in Laval at this moment. Obviously next year will be important but if it's not Montreal I would bet he will find a role in the NHL eventually. I think he is not a bust nor a success but I would tend more likely to be a success (decent NHL career) than a complete bust (never player again in the NHL).

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Brendan Brisson: 23 and had played more AHL games than his two seasons prior, and scored 12 less points that his worst previous season, this time between two teams.

Brennan Othmann: He's a good AHL guy but as it stands, he's not good enough for an NHL top 6 and is still behind the play lots.

David Jiricek: Time's running out. Hasn't shown he's ready for the NHL and doesn't stand out in the AHL. Footspeed and IQ are still issues.

Colby Barlow: There's still time, but he needs to come into Manitoba next year and show his game is pro-made.

Geez, these were all some of my favorite draft picks in their day. This is a reminder for why I try not to have strong opinions on the draft…

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Owen Beck and Fraser Minten would be Ottawa no1 prospect right now, they aren't overrated.

Leevi Merilainen is better than both.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Mailloux? Lafreniere?

Logan Mailloux is having great playoffs in the AHL. Could get a chance with the big club at camp or he could be used as a trade asset. But too early to call him a bust especially considering he was a 31st pick.

Lafreniere is a disappointment but I wouldn't call him bust (unless he's out the NHL in a few years)

I mean he was picked 31st, but he also probably could've gone higher if not for his issues and his own request not to be drafted.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Thought Alexander Holtz was gonna be like 2017 Laine.

I feel like I remember a period where there was a Holtz vs. Raymond debate.

That question has been emphatically answered.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I feel like I remember a period where there was a Holtz vs. Raymond debate.

That question has been emphatically answered.

There was a month stretch right before or after COVID hit when Holtz versus Raymond was a real discussion, then everyone went back, watched Raymond film, realized he had the shot and playmaking, whereas Holtz was just a shooter, then the discussion ended. Although that was on Twitter, not sure how discussion went on here at that time.

 

[LeProspector]

Owen Beck and Fraser Minten would be Ottawa no1 prospect right now, they aren't overrated.

Don’t see what Ottawa has to do with anything? They have a terrible prospect pool, yes - so does Colorado, Pittsburgh, Florida, Edmonton and Boston, why single them out when you could have singled out Colorado who literally has nobody of substance and traded their 2 best prospects at the deadline for 3 wins in the first round.

Those are guys that played NHL games early, and were overrated because of it, even though they’re going to be bottom-6 pieces.

 

[Soundgarden]

Kemell

He's a long way from busting, he just turned 21 and has 6 points in 8 playoff games right now, he's had two solid 40 point seasons in Milwaukee. I think he's brought up this year.

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

He just turned 22. He needs to work on his defense but it's not his style, he will always be an offensive D-man. The work with him is to bring his defensive game to a passable level.
His offensive game is high end (4 pts in 7 games in the NHL this year).

There are only 10 D-man in the NHL from that draft. Mailloux was a very late 1st rounder. Unfair to label him as a bust.

Calling him a high-end offensive Dman is like saying Hutson will reach the level defensively of Makar or Hughes.

 

[Seb]

Geez, these were all some of my favorite draft picks in their day. This is a reminder for why I try not to have strong opinions on the draft…

You're allowed to have a strong opinion and be wrong. NHL prospects are hard to project, some more than others.

These were 4 great prospects, there's no shame in thinking highly of them back then or even now. They can still turn it around.

 

[Siidekik]

Looking back a lot of the 2021 class is really weak

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Reichel

Yep

Looked great to end 22-23 season

7 goals + 8 assists for 15 pts in 23 games but hasn't come close to that level of play since

23-24 was disaster for him with 5 goals + 11 assists for 16 pts and a -29 in 65 games

While this past year he flashed moments of skill and overall showed better all around game he basically spent most of his time on 4th line failing to grab top 9 spot when given chance (Coaching issues didn't help)

24-25 season for him was 8 goals + 14 assists for 22 pts and a -16 in 70 games

This coming season is make or break for him with Hawks with a new coach if he is still here (Could be traded in offseason)

Just turned 23 days ago so still young enough to maybe figure it out but it may not be in Chicago if he does

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Carson Lambos was a projected top 10 pick for the 2021 Draft before his DY and just hasn't developed much. On the verge of complete busting

 

[Scoresberg]

He's a long way from busting, he just turned 21 and has 6 points in 8 playoff games right now, he's had two solid 40 point seasons in Milwaukee. I think he's brought up this year.

Well he's hardly developing as an offensive-gifted 1st rounder should.

PPG in the AHL year-by-year:

22-23: 0.93
23-24: 0.61
24-25: 0.62

Next year is for sure make it or break it -year for him. As a 5-9 winger with unspectacular numbers in the AHL, I'm thinking he may have year or two still left in NA before he heads back to Europe.

 

[Tube Skates]

Was hoping for Raphael Lavoie. Isn’t gonna happen for him Im afraid

 

[Czechboy]

Jiricek, Spacek and Mysak are worrisome. One is highly touted on here, other 2 were favs of Czech posters.lol Spacek as well. Sapo?

 

[Guadana]

How Lambert is doing? I remember some crazy heads call him 1OA.

 

[wetcoast]

If Mailloux was good, he would have already made the Canadiens putrid defence, as a 2021 draft pick, he’s defensively on the verge of being labeled a bust.

OP said this:
“or at the very least, ending up as something much lower than what they were”
If that isn’t Alexis Lafreniere, I don’t know what is lol

Ok I get the last part but Laf isn't a "bust by any means" in the normal way.

Agree 100% on Logan just doesn't have the defensive chops and likely never will.

 

[Mitch nylander]

I think draft picks between 2020-2021, is the range to start questioning their ability to make the next level. Focusing on first rounders here's the list:

2020
Alexander Holtz - While he should be a full time NHLer, he's now 23 and still spending some time in the AHL. Given he was drafted this high - you'd expect more.
Hendrix Lapierre - In that awkward phase of a tweener. Seems to be too good for the A but not quite ready for the bigs.
Justin Barron - An offensive defenceman producing hardly any offence. I wouldn't be surprised to see him waived relatively soon.
Brendan Brisson - He's shown flashes, but for now I'd say he's not an NHLer.
Ozzy Wiesblatt - Finally seems to have taken a huge step forward. But next year will be his make it or break it year.

Flat Out Busts
Jacob Perreault - No chance of being an NHLer.

2021
Tyler Boucher - Hasn't really shown much as a 10th overall pick. While I'm not quite ready to write him off, he doesn't look like an NHLer.
Xavier Bourgault - Also not a guy that I see making the next step. Simply no improvements in the last three years.
Fabian Lysell - Took a step back this year. Will have a hard time making it next year battling with Minten/Poitras/Locmelis/Farinacci/Merkulov
Corson Ceulemans - Guy has been surpassed by numerous defensive prospects in CBJ, thinking he won't get a chance there.
Carson Lambos. - Similar to Ceulemans, hasn't stood out compared to other defensive prospects and with Buium/Jiricek/Spacek knocking on the door, seems like he could fall out of favour.
Chase Stillman - hate to say it, but this is gonna be a flat out bust of a pick.
Zach Dean - Another guy who's stagnated with injury issues. Probably doesn't make it to the next step.

 

[FissionFire]

Compare the metrics with all MTL defenceman, you will find that he's among the best on his team. He's ahead of Savard, Matheson, Xhekaj and Struble.

Yes but you have to consider that he also has by far the most favorable zone starts and matchups as well. Had he had a less sheltered deployment his defensive stats probably would look far worse. Again he will improve but for this year only he wasn’t anything more than replacement level defensively.

 

[FissionFire]

The eye test? How many times have you even watched this player? Sorry as a Habs fan I only watched almost every game this year and you're full of it. He lead the team in takeaways and giveaways and yet still only a -2, he also has one of the highest shots blocked on the team, man what a black hole of defense this guy, blocking all those shots. What metrics and what eye test from some rando that probably never watches him? I've seen him get beat in the corners but much more often I have seen him win the corner against much bigger dudes.

You just reek of desperation looking for something to hang on the kid.

You’ve literally contributed nothing of value to this aside from petulantly screaming that I’m wrong with not a shred of statistical evidence to point out why. Show me something I can see that isn’t your biased impression and change my mind. I’m sure there is some defensive metric out there to support what your “unbiased” eyeballs supposedly are seeing. If you can’t find anything to back you up maybe the real question is who the one reeling of desperation is?

 

[OneSharpMarble]

You’ve literally contributed nothing of value to this aside from petulantly screaming that I’m wrong with not a shred of statistical evidence to point out why. Show me something I can see that isn’t your biased impression and change my mind. I’m sure there is some defensive metric out there to support what your “unbiased” eyeballs supposedly are seeing. If you can’t find anything to back you up maybe the real question is who the one reeling of desperation is?

This coming from the guy talking about the "eye test" but hasn't actually watched Hutson! I've already talked about his play and stats but apparently a what Detroit fan? Knows more but can't seem to back up anything he says. Where is this statistical evidence? Show me how a rookie relied upon for 22 minutes+ a game is a "defensive black hole", don't cry when you get called out.