Pro Tank Thread "You said that we'd be better now, better now. But you always let us down."

[Peter10]

If the Leafs didn’t get lucky with the lottery odds AND draft a borderline generational talent in Matthews, they wouldn’t be a playoff team. At best, they would be Calgary Flames EAST. Replace Matthews with Pierre Luc Dubois, and all of a sudden, Shanahan doesn’t look like a genius. #HailMary

What you fail to understand is that the Leafs positioned themselves to have the best chances at Matthews. Were they lucky on this? Of course but had they tried to make the playoffs every year, they wouldnt be where they are. They would have been a bubble playoff team at best that gets nowhere in the long run.

The reason the Canucks havent gotten a first overall pick is not bad luck, there is no such thing. They ended up being in the bottom pack of the league because their management is incompetent. Their goal was always to be a playoff team yet that was handled so badly that instead they ended up near the bottom by sheer incompetence. Had they completetly crashed and burned everything, they could have won the Matthews sweepstakes or Dahlin. Had everything turned out as Benning was expecting it, the Canucks would have never been anywhere close to drafting the likes of Pettersson, Hughes or even Juolevi.

 

[RealityCheck22]

We only have 1 chance

The moment, you own it, you better never let it go
You only get one shot, do not miss your chance to blow
This opportunity comes once in a lifetime, yo

 

[PuckMunchkin]

When you are a new GM and start your rebuild by signing an 34y old goalie to a 18m/3y deal and a 33y old winger for 10m /2y

I think this needs to be repeated so certain people don't get away with revisionist history.

 

[ChilliBilly]

What you fail to understand is that the Leafs positioned themselves to have the best chances at Matthews. Were they lucky on this? Of course but had they tried to make the playoffs every year, they wouldnt be where they are. They would have been a bubble playoff team at best that gets nowhere in the long run.

The reason the Canucks havent gotten a first overall pick is not bad luck, there is no such thing. They ended up being in the bottom pack of the league because their management is incompetent. Their goal was always to be a playoff team yet that was handled so badly that instead they ended up near the bottom by sheer incompetence. Had they completetly crashed and burned everything, they could have won the Matthews sweepstakes or Dahlin. Had everything turned out as Benning was expecting it, the Canucks would have never been anywhere close to drafting the likes of Pettersson, Hughes or even Juolevi.

Wrong. The Canucks have been very unlucky at lotteries. Period. They have never moved up from their projected position, except in 2004 when we got Luc bourdon. And that did not end up well. Not going to try and do the math, but my gut feeling is that we have about a 2% chance of the results being as bad as they are.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Wrong. The Canucks have been very unlucky at lotteries. Period. They have never moved up from their projected position, except in 2004 when we got Luc bourdon. And that did not end up well. Not going to try and do the math, but my gut feeling is that we have about a 2% chance of the results being as bad as they are.

I have a STRONGER feeling that the results are pretty close to 50%.

 

[JT Milker]

I have a STRONGER feeling that the results are pretty close to 50%.

Maybe over the past 5 years.

 

[Horse McHindu]

What you fail to understand is that the Leafs positioned themselves to have the best chances at Matthews. Were they lucky on this? Of course but had they tried to make the playoffs every year, they wouldnt be where they are. They would have been a bubble playoff team at best that gets nowhere in the long run.

The reason the Canucks havent gotten a first overall pick is not bad luck, there is no such thing. They ended up being in the bottom pack of the league because their management is incompetent. Their goal was always to be a playoff team yet that was handled so badly that instead they ended up near the bottom by sheer incompetence. Had they completetly crashed and burned everything, they could have won the Matthews sweepstakes or Dahlin. Had everything turned out as Benning was expecting it, the Canucks would have never been anywhere close to drafting the likes of Pettersson, Hughes or even Juolevi.

Will respond to this later but I’ll say the following for now:

When I logged on and saw your post, I saw that you had received ‘likes.’ Brokenhole, Punchmunchkin, rypper, and “13 others.” I was like, “wow, 13 other people liked that post?” Upon further review, I realized that there is a poster on here named, “13 others.”

 

[Horse McHindu]

What you fail to understand is that the Leafs positioned themselves to have the best chances at Matthews. Were they lucky on this? Of course but had they tried to make the playoffs every year, they wouldnt be where they are. They would have been a bubble playoff team at best that gets nowhere in the long run.

I’ll leave you with one tidbit:

Nashville Predators Draft History at hockeydb.com

Nashville Predators.

I think most would agree that they were a middle of the road team at one point no? Did they sink to the bottom for years and years on end and take advantage of numerous high end picks? Nope. Not from what I see.

They built a culture in Nashville. A combination of culture creation, a mix of vets and youth, drafting and developing prospects from ALL rounds, and making smart trades and signings, allowed Nashville to go from a middling team to an elite team.

Look. I’m not saying that bottoming out isn’t important. It often is. However, the goal shouldn’t be to tank and spend years upon years there cherry picking. Spend 1-2 years there, draft smart, and then push upwards.

As it relates to the Canucks? Our depth down the middle should be secured long term now (Pettersson, Horvat, and maybe Gaudette = awesome). We have a long term sniper in Boeser, a solid prospect pool in Utica, and some good depth in goal (Markstrom, Demko, Dipietro), and on defense (Hughes, Juolevi, Tryamkin).

So yes - I do believe that the Canucks should start pushing for the playoffs and let the chips fall where they may. It’s a win win situation. Make the playoffs? Great! Playoff experience! Bomb badly? Great! Another Hughes/Pettersson/Boeser prospect.

The Canucks have enough good young long term pieces now to build around. Emphasize good on ice and off ice habits, get the kids to stay motivated and compete (which is why maintaining a presence in the UFA market is important), don’t trade 1st round picks, trade 2nd and 3rd’s if you feel a gap can be filled, and push for the playoffs. Let the chips fall as it may.

 

[Peter10]

Wrong. The Canucks have been very unlucky at lotteries. Period. They have never moved up from their projected position, except in 2004 when we got Luc bourdon. And that did not end up well. Not going to try and do the math, but my gut feeling is that we have about a 2% chance of the results being as bad as they are.

Well yeah I guess I worded it a bit wrongly. Obviously more often than not they were at the losing end when it came to draft lotteries. However, it is also not like they positioned themselves in the best way. Lets say they would have set themselves up for a full rebuild in 15-16 and end up dead last - the Canucks get Matthews instead of Toronto. Start selling in December/January when it was obvious this team was going nowhere, instead they tried everything possible to remain in the playoff hunt. Same 2018, they get over cocky because Derek Dorsett has the month of his live and the goalies playing lights out. Again they think they are a playoff team and instead of cleaning house, the team is set up for meaningless wins in March and April. Had they finished last, Vancouver could have had Dahlin.

To me thats not really bad luck (at least in the last few years), it is minimizing your chances.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Well yeah I guess I worded it a bit wrongly. Obviously more often than not they were at the losing end when it came to draft lotteries. However, it is also not like they positioned themselves in the best way. Lets say they would have set themselves up for a full rebuild in 15-16 and end up dead last - the Canucks get Matthews instead of Toronto. Start selling in December/January when it was obvious this team was going nowhere, instead they tried everything possible to remain in the playoff hunt. Same 2018, they get over cocky because Derek Dorsett has the month of his live and the goalies playing lights out. Again they think they are a playoff team and instead of cleaning house, the team is set up for meaningless wins in March and April. Had they finished last, Vancouver could have had Dahlin.

To me thats not really bad luck (at least in the last few years), it is minimizing your chances.

I was only addressing the statistical side of things. They have been unlucky. The fact that they have mostly been incompetent is a different issue.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Deliberately tanking (via veteran sell off) and risking spending years and years on end in the basement stockpiling picks, is often akin to pouring water into a bucket with a small hole at the bottom.

Yeah - you likely end up drafting great prospects, but the current prospects in your system continue to rot and struggle.....and don’t reach their full potential. Furthermore, they become far more susceptible to learning bad on ice and off ice habits. How many times have we seen this with Edmonton and the New York Islanders in yester-year? When will people learn?

 

[Peter10]

I’ll leave you with one tidbit:

Nashville Predators Draft History at hockeydb.com

Nashville Predators.

I think most would agree that they were a middle of the road team at one point no? Did they sink to the bottom for years and years on end and take advantage of numerous high end picks? Nope. Not from what I see.

They built a culture in Nashville. A combination of culture creation, a mix of vets and prospects, drafting and developing prospects from ALL rounds, and making smart trades and signings, allowed Nashville to go from a middling team to an elite team.

Look. I’m not saying that bottoming out isn’t important. It often is. However, the goal shouldn’t be to tank and spend years upon years there cherry picking. Spend 1-2 years there, draft smart, and then push upwards.

As it relates to the Canucks? Our depth down the middle should be secured long term now (Pettersson, Horvat, and maybe Gaudette = awesome). We have a long term sniper in Boeser, a solid prospect pool in Utica, and some good depth in goal (Markstrom, Demko, Dipietro), and on defense (Hughes, Juolevi, Tryamkin).

So yes - I do believe that the Canucks should start pushing for the playoffs and let the chips fall where they may. It’s a win win situation. Make the playoffs? Great! Playoff experience! Bomb badly? Great! Another Hughes/Pettersson prospect.

The Canucks have enough good young long term pieces now to build around. Emphasize good on ice and off ice habits, get the kids to stay motivated and compete (which is why maintain a presence in the UFA market is important), don’t trade 1st round picks, trade 2nd and 3rd’s if you feel a gap can be filled, and push for the playoffs. Let the chips fall as it may.

Interesting point you bring up here but I would say the Preds are rather the excemption than the norm. However, they are even more interesting from another point of view. A lot of their top guys (Forsberg, Johanssen, Subban, Turris) were acquired via trades, something Benning has been rather unsuccessfull with yet. Their drafting has been quite good overall, despite the lack of good picks but if you look closely you will notice that several guys played in the NHL within 1-2 years after being drafted (Smith, Fiala, Sissons, Watson) or straight in their D1 season (Arvidsson), even for Ellis it took only 3 years.

If you compare this to Benning, it should be a bit concerning that we have had only 2 guys establishing themselves in the league in Boeser and Virtanen (to some extend) with Pettersson following up now. All of them are 1st round picks (2 of them very early ones). The Preds draft success comes mainly from the latter rounds (2nd and below) which so far hasnt yielded anything in terms of NHL success for the Canucks - Tryamkin being the only excemption though he was an over-ager and has already run away from this organization.

 

[RealityCheck22]

Agree 100% that you don't need to tank to rebuild. You do have to draft and develop well with no shortcuts trading away picks for veterans. Drafting 18 year olds is a crapshoot. You have a much better shot lucking out finding a good player without a high draft pick. Much more so than the NFL drafting 22 year olds.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Maybe over the past 5 years.

But overall. Closer to 50% then 2% I'd say is at least a pretty safe bet.

 

[Peter10]

Agree 100% that you don't need to tank to rebuild. You do have to draft and develop well with no shortcuts trading away picks for veterans. Drafting 18 year olds is a crapshoot. You have a much better shot lucking out finding a good player without a high draft pick. Much more so than the NFL drafting 22 year olds.

Thats not quite true. The chances of drafting a high end player are significantly higher if you pick in the top 5 or even top 10. Of course there are no guarantees but I rather have a #5 pick than #20 and #21.

 

[JT Milker]

But overall. Closer to 50% then 2% I'd say is at least a pretty safe bet.

Not in our history, no. I.e. if we had a 25% chance of winning a top 3 spot each of the last 3 years (can’t recall the exact odds off the top of my head), the probability we don’t win a spot at least once is ~40%. And obviously we’ve been bad more than just 3 times in our illustrious 45 year history.

 

[Peter10]

Not in our history, no. I.e. if we had a 25% chance of winning a top 3 spot each of the last 3 years (can’t recall the exact odds off the top of my head), the probability we don’t win a spot at least once is ~40%. And obviously we’ve been bad more than just 3 times in our illustrious 45 year history.

There is a higher chance to drop in the draft lottery than to move up. Actually in 2018 the most likely outcome was that the Canucks would end up with pick #7 which is exactly what they did. So that is hardly bad luck. So maybe the Canucks werent unlucky, it is just that some other teams were a bit luckier.

 

[CanaFan]

Agree 100% that you don't need to tank to rebuild. You do have to draft and develop well with no shortcuts trading away picks for veterans. Drafting 18 year olds is a crapshoot. You have a much better shot lucking out finding a good player without a high draft pick. Much more so than the NFL drafting 22 year olds.

Ya but if the draft is a crapshoot, then drafting high is the best way to stack the odds in your favour. Sure, if you can luck out and draft a Jamie Benn John Klingberg or in the 5th round in the then you don’t have to tank to find good players, but you dont have any control over your ability to find those types of players. That is the real crapshoot. Drafting 5th or 7th overall is still a bit of a crapshoot, but with a heavily stacked deck. I’ll take that over waiting years to luck into a franchise player.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Here’s the thing: As long as those signings didn’t prevent any kids from playing in positions that they were ready for, then yes, those signings were ok and consistent with a rebuild.

Not even ONE of our signings in all of Benning’s time here has prevented a kid from playing in a position that he was ready for. Not ONE.

No, that doesn't mean that at all. Especially in the case of Eriksson who's contract runs long-term, you don't know the cap implications of that deal 2-3 years from now. Especially since at that time we'll have Boeser and Pettersson on more expensive contracts, it's going to impede the Canucks ability to build around those two.

Thanks to Mike Gillis completely and utterly depleting our farm, the Canucks literally had zero prospects ready to make the jump and fill those positions.

Can people please shut the f*** up about Mike Gillis? We get it. You don't like Gillis and since Benning has been so incompetent at his job bringing up the guy who was fired almost half a decade ago as an excuse is the only way you can defend Benning. I understand. You have a weird obsession with Jim Benning (as do many other Canuck fans for some reason) and you don't like the reality that we live in so you have to find some way to defend him. But please...stop using Mike Gillis as an excuse. Gillis was one of the best GM's in Canucks history, while Benning is easily the worst GM in Canucks history.

When Shanahan took over in Toronto, this wasn’t the case: Yes - Shanahan got lucky and drafted Marner, Matthews, and Nylander, but the Leafs also had some other decent young players within the system thanks to their numerous previous years of COMPLETE AND UTTER FAILURE.

Shanahan got lucky to draft Marner and Nylander? If only the Canucks would have had the opportunity to draft Nylander...if only Benning had been lucky enough that Nylander would have been available to him....

Also, I"m explaining the process to you, something you continue to ignore. Toronto stockpiled picks and prospects, avoided long-term bloated contracts on free agents and instead focused on 1-year deals where they could flip veterans for picks. Benning has done the exact opposite. It's really infuriating that something so simple seems to be so lost on you.

The ONLY guy that was ready to make the jump at that time was Sven Baertschi......and so Chris Higgins was sent down as result.

Or you could argue Higgins was sent down because Benning brought in other veterans.

As time has also proven, Eddie Lack was NOT quite ready to be a number one goalie and so Miller’s presence was necessary.

Yet when Lack outplayed Miller here Benning chose to take a lesser return for Lack than he could have got for Miller.

And...In before you turn around and decide to go on a tirade over a reality that you don't like so you'll choose to insult the source.

Bringing in vets to teach the kids the right on ice and off ice habits is also an essential component to a rebuild. Bringing in vets (without sacrificing 1st round picks) so that a team can push for the playoffs is also important, so that the kids get much needed playoff exposure. Now obviously, the latter has not panned out, but this management group and veteran leadership has done an excellent job of getting the kids to compete even when they were long eliminated from playoffs. This type of mindset WILL pay in the long run.

Nobody is saying that we shouldn't have any veterans, but it's quite embarrassing when the team is supposedly in a rebuild yet has fewer rookies on the team than some Stanley Cup contenders/favourites. Like I said, there is no rebuild. This is simply a bad team due to incompetent management that has failed at the goal they set out to achieve.

As far as “all of the draft picks” that Benning has traded away, look no further than the quality of our farm and prospect pool to see if that had any negative impact.

1) Our farm is deeper than its ever been (prospects selected from ALL rounds),

2) we have lots of young guys on the Canucks

3) the Canucks are playing a modern and exciting style of hockey.

4) Our long term depth at Center seems to be solved, while our goaltending long term also doesnt seem like it will be an issue (one of Demko or Dipietro should pan out, while Markstrom is also still young enough to be a viable long term option for us. Markstrom looks like he might have taken a leap in his game). With Hughes, Juolevi, and Tryamkin likely to make/comeback to the Canucks within the next 1-2 years, our defense also appears likely to be set. Hughes being a top pairing PMD, Juolevi being a 2nd pairing PMD, and Tryamkin being a 2nd pairing stay-at-home, are all very realistic and attainable projections.

Do you know how the draft works? Because it doesn't sound like you do.

Yes, a team that's been as bad as the Canucks have been, for as long as they have been, will have better prospects. That's a given. That's not some big accomplishment Benning has achieved, that's just what you would expect. That's the base. You're getting your pom poms out because "whoa prospects woohooo!" without realizing that EVERY team that's been as bad as the Canucks have been for this long will have a list of good prospects.

The better way to judge is where this team ranks in terms of U-23 players around the league. Teams like Calgary, Toronto, and Winnipeg may not have the prospect list the Canucks have but that's because their prospects have been good enough to graduate to the NHL, while the Canucks players are still in prospect status.

Your assessments of the Canucks prospects are also way off. At this point Juolevi looks like a longshot to be a 2nd pair puck moving defenseman. I know you have this fantasy that everything works out, but reality is much much different. Also there's no guarantee Tryamkin ever returns, and even if he does it's still unlikely he'll be a second pair defenseman.

Finally - just take a look at who scored our goals the other night.

Pettersson, Virtanen, Goldobin, Leipsic, Motte.

Amazing how we criticize Benning for trading for reclamation projects, and yet we have five young guys (Baertschi, Granlund, Goldobin, Leipsic, and Motte) all in our line-up who appear to be poised and ready to succeed in their positions.

Is any of this sinking in?

Oh wow, a bunch of younger players scored in game 1 of the season. Whoa stop the presses and plan the parade route.

 

[y2kcanucks]

So other than Matthews, Marner, and Nylander, which of these “stockpiled” picks have made the team or are on the verge of making the team?



If the Leafs didn’t get lucky with the lottery odds AND draft a borderline generational talent in Matthews, they wouldn’t be a playoff team. At best, they would be Calgary Flames EAST. Replace Matthews with Pierre Luc Dubois, and all of a sudden, Shanahan doesn’t look like a genius. #HailMary

Toronto has a very deep prospect pool, and have the youth in the system to supplement their now expensive core. Grundstrom, Bracco, Nielsen, Woll all look like very good prospects who will help the team going forward. Throw Dermott in there who, if the Leafs took the Jim Benning way of "rebuilding" they probably wouldn't have because they'd have dealt away that 2nd round pick for some trash.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Deliberately tanking (via veteran sell off) and risking spending years and years on end in the basement stockpiling picks, is often akin to pouring water into a bucket with a small hole at the bottom.

Yeah - you likely end up drafting great prospects, but the current prospects in your system continue to rot and struggle.....and don’t reach their full potential. Furthermore, they become far more susceptible to learning bad on ice and off ice habits. How many times have we seen this with Edmonton and the New York Islanders in yester-year? When will people learn?

So instead you prefer what Benning is doing which is just spending years at the bottom because he's so incompetent at his job? The Canucks are the worst team in the NHL over the last 3-year period, and are likely to make that 4 years in the basement after this season is done. Exactly what you said they shouldn't do, yet with Benning's strategy of stockpiling veterans, trading away picks, and having very few rookies make the team has accomplished exactly that.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Carl Grundstrom hockey statistics and profile at hockeydb.com = Grundstrom

Jeremy Bracco hockey statistics and profile at hockeydb.com = Bracco

Andrew Nielsen hockey statistics and profile at hockeydb.com = Nielsen

Uhhhh............yeah. Those numbers really aren't that impressive. @y2kcanucks

 

[ChilliBilly]

Okay, I went back and did the math. The probability of us not moving up in any lottery we were eligible for is 13.9% .

I used a 7% chance in 2014because it was the only year I could not find a number for, it didn't affect the numbers much and it seemed about right.

Also unlucky in the Luc bourdon tragedy and the reffing in 2011 finals.

Edit - The odds are even slightly worse, because we had a slim chance to move up in 2006 and 2008 as well. I don't remember when the draft lottery started ... but it was about this time I believe.

re-edit - There was no lottery in 2006.

 

[ccjon]

Agreed. A team that hasn’t won a playoff round in over 15 years, and has been rebuilding since circa 2008, is a bad organization.

Are the Leafs promising now? (Finally). Of course they are. They have the tools now (after 15 years), and so let’s see what they do.

Why don't you corroborate your version of events with the Leafs board and report back with the results? They should know their team better than anyone here. Pretty easy way to make us all look stupid no?

 

[Horse McHindu]

Okay, I went back and did the math. The probability of us not moving up in any lottery we were eligible for is 13.9% .

I used a 7% chance in 2014because it was the only year I could not find a number for, it didn't affect the numbers much and it seemed about right.

Also unlucky in the Luc bourdon tragedy and the reffing in 2011 finals.

I'll say this about the reffing in 2011.

The Canucks were a victim of very biased officiating against Chicago in 2009, 2010, and 2011.

The Canucks were also a victim of biased officiating against LA 2012 and even moreso against San Jose in 2013. Just absolutely ridiculous officiating.

And then against Boston - the Canucks were victims of biased officiating in Games, 3,4, and 5. Games 5 of 2011 was one of the worst biased and officiated games in NHL history, and yet the Canucks actually won that one.

However - after the Boychuk hit in Game 6, the officiating was pretty even on both sides (although the Marchand face punch towards Sedin shouldn't have resulted in a misconduct for Sedin).

The Canucks didn't lose Game 6 or Game 7 due to officiating. They were outplayed.

A slightly injured Bruins team outplayed a severely injured Canucks team. In many ways, San Jose and Nashville deserve as much credit for winning the cup for Boston as does Boston themselves. Want to know how the cup would have played out had both teams been healthy? Refer to Canucks/Predators 2011, Hawks/Bruins 2013, Canucks/Bruins Games 1 and 2, and Canucks/Bruins January 7th 2012.

2011 was a great year for us, but it's time to lay it to rest. 2025 will be much better.