Predict the Atlantic Standings

[HarryLime]

Bolts Panthers Bruins make playoffs

If Toronto gets the 4 spot they will miss or lose in R1 again 100%

 

[Essenege]

I’m sorry, but you can’t just make things up. Montreal did not lead in expected goals in game 6 and the advanced stats are heavily skewed to the leafs. Here’s games 6.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens, 2021-05-29

Feel free to have a look at the others. They paint the same picture whether you want to believe them or not. You can add a +/- 10% for human error, bias, whatever you want. It still says the same thing.

Here are the numbers I used. I see Habs were up a full 1.5 goal at the end of the 3rd. This is the game I remember watching. Habs the better team 50 minutes out of 60 in regulation, Leafs the better team in OT. How hard is it to admit Habs were actually pretty good in those games?

The common denominator in those 3 games is that the Leafs turned it up in the third when they were already trailing by 2 or 3 goals. It was pretty even in game 5 before Habs we’re up 3-0, and Habs had the massive advantage in game 6 and 7 until they were up by 2 goals.

If you know your way around advanced stats you know a trailing team playing catch up usually has the advantage, as the other team is mostly defending (which is a terrible strategy btw). That’s why score adjusted numbers exist.

 

[Beezeral]

Because my point is - on HF, majority going into this season were like "Dallas were finalists? Ok - I bet they end up a top contender/top team this season".

show your work because this didn't really happen.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Heres the number I used. I see Habs we’re up a full 1.5 goal at the end of the 3rd. This is the game I remember watching. Habs the better team 50 minutes out of 60 in regulation, Leafs the better team in OT. How hard is it to admit Habs we’re actually pretty good in those games?

View attachment 462391

They got pissed on game 5-6-7 their entire team was loafing around like they were regular season games lol. Let's not even talk about game 7 lmao how embarassing they barely put up a fight

 

[bobholly39]

show your work because this didn't really happen.

2020-2021 Stanley Cup Favorite - #9

Voted 7th most likely Stanley Cup favorites by HF going into the season. I'd say that qualifies as being called a top contender/top team.

And for what it's worth - for all your talk about "Florida roster overhaul last year, we all knew they'd be good!'

2020-2021 Stanley Cup Favorite - #15

in the poll for 15th most likely Stanley cup contender last year - Florida is still getting 0 votes. So they were on just about nobody's radar going into last season as a top team, just like I've been saying in this thread.

Great that they over exceeded expectations last season. Maybe Florida builds off of that and repeats success again this year. But very possible they don't, and go back to struggling.

 

[Julien LG]

I think the difference is that montreal finished well outside of what would have been the regular playoffs for the 4th year in a row last year. Where as Dallas made the playoffs the previous year. It took covid for montreal to have a shot, and yes they played well, but they wouldn’t have been there in the first place. Now they lost some key pieces and are looking for more respect than the team that wouldn’t have made the playoffs.

Montreal didnt finish well outside of the usual playoffs. They finish 4th in their division, good for a playoffs spot. You cant compare points earned in different division if said divisions didnt even play against each other it means absolutly nothing.

Montreal also play more games in less days than pretty much anyone else due to Covid with significant injuries at the same time. The others teams affected by such events like Dallas and Vancouver did not made the playoffs.

 

[pb1300]

2020-2021 Stanley Cup Favorite - #9

Voted 7th most likely Stanley Cup favorites by HF going into the season. I'd say that qualifies as being called a top contender/top team.

And for what it's worth - for all your talk about "Florida roster overhaul last year, we all knew they'd be good!'

2020-2021 Stanley Cup Favorite - #15

in the poll for 15th most likely Stanley cup contender last year - Florida is still getting 0 votes. So they were on just about nobody's radar going into last season as a top team, just like I've been saying in this thread.

Great that they over exceeded expectations last season. Maybe Florida builds off of that and repeats success again this year. But very possible they don't, and go back to struggling.

Nobody said they would be that good last season. You are the one that said they had very little turnover, so they were expected to be good. They went through almost half a new roster, and there were a lot of question marks, especially in a shortened season. They had the chance to be good, but given a shortened season, they would have to get off to a quick start, because of chemistry issues. Thats what happened, and they never took their foot off the gas. They werent lucky like previous Panthers seasons. They were one of the best 5-on-5 teams in the league, advanced stats showed they deserved where they were in the standings, and they were a high performance team, that could score. Please, stop talking about teams you obviously dont know much about.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

TB is the class of the division.

Florida is a clear 2nd IMO.

Boston, Montreal, Toronto will be fighting for the final 2 playoff spots.

Ottawa will continue to show progress, may surprise, but more likely will still experience growing pains next season.

Detroit is still building. Perhaps another high pick draft away. In good hands with GM Yzerman.

Buffalo is in a full rebuild.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

TB is the class of the division.

Florida is a clear 2nd IMO.

Boston, Montreal, Toronto will be fighting for the final 2 playoff spots.

Ottawa will continue to show progress, may surprise, but more likely will still experience growing pains next season.

Detroit is still building. Perhaps another high pick draft away. In good hands with GM Yzerman.

Buffalo is in a full rebuild.

I don't know man if Florida is a clear second why not Toronto? They are a good regular season team imo I don't see Florida that much ahead of them . Atlantic's gonna be a fun battle . Hopefully Tampa dosent flex on our division too hard

 

[The90]

Montreal didnt finish well outside of the usual playoffs. They finish 4th in their division, good for a playoffs spot. You cant compare points earned in different division if said divisions didnt even play against each other it means absolutly nothing.

Montreal also play more games in less days than pretty much anyone else due to Covid with significant injuries at the same time. The others teams affected by such events like Dallas and Vancouver did not made the playoffs.

Yes or no, would they have been in the playoffs in a regular season without covid?

No. They wouldn’t have. That’s why their reputation, whether you like it or not, is what it is.

 

[bobholly39]

Yes or no, would they have been in the playoffs in a regular season without covid?

No. They wouldn’t have. That’s why their reputation, whether you like it or not, is what it is.

Probably not - but in this hypothetical is it an 82 game season or 56 game season? Because the shortened season hit them particularly hard. They were doing pretty well first few months - but then had their Covid outbreak, and a rash ofikey injuries, and all in the last month had a horrible finish. But that ~12-15 game stretch of bad play buried in a longer 82 games (without the extra covid week issue, so may have been less games) - they might still have made the playoffs.

 

[kthx]

Florida
Boston
Tampa Bay
Toronto

Montreal
Ottawa
Detroit
Buffalo

Tampa Bay Cup hangover but who cares they will go deep in the playoffs again. Habs get in via wildcard.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I don't know man if Florida is a clear second why not Toronto? They are a good regular season team imo I don't see Florida that much ahead of them . Atlantic's gonna be a fun battle . Hopefully Tampa dosent flex on our division too hard

To me they are. They gave TB a good battle in the playoffs which justified to me they did not have a fluke season, and they actually finished ahead of them in the division last year. They should continue on this trend with the addition of Reinhart with another year of progression under a very good coach and GM in Quennville and Zito. Toronto and Boston were not strengthened by their off season moves. Montreal lost Weber, it's a big loss, but they managed to sign Savard which should offset the loss somewhat. To me the key to them is for one of their young Centers to develop to help Suzuki, who has developed into a big time young 2 way C.

 

[Beezeral]

Voted 7th most likely Stanley Cup favorites by HF going into the season. I'd say that qualifies as being called a top contender/top team.

disagree completely that 7th would be a top team.

And for what it's worth - for all your talk about "Florida roster overhaul last year, we all knew they'd be good!'

2020-2021 Stanley Cup Favorite - #15

in the poll for 15th most likely Stanley cup contender last year - Florida is still getting 0 votes. So they were on just about nobody's radar going into last season as a top team, just like I've been saying in this thread.

here you go making stuff up again. Nobody knew they would be as good as they ended up being and nobody definitely claimed the Panthers were poised to break out. Forsling was a complete revelation. Smart people were talking about Verhaeghe as the next Marchessault signing when it happened, but nobody predicted he would be as good as he was.

The key being, that those players did break out. And they did it in a way that both to the eye and the analytics looks sustainable. The Panthers found two diamonds in the rough that were buried on deep teams.

Nobody said they would be that good last season. You are the one that said they had very little turnover, so they were expected to be good. They went through almost half a new roster, and there were a lot of question marks, especially in a shortened season. They had the chance to be good, but given a shortened season, they would have to get off to a quick start, because of chemistry issues. Thats what happened, and they never took their foot off the gas. They werent lucky like previous Panthers seasons. They were one of the best 5-on-5 teams in the league, advanced stats showed they deserved where they were in the standings, and they were a high performance team, that could score. Please, stop talking about teams you obviously dont know much about.

This. All of this.

Montreal didnt finish well outside of the usual playoffs. They finish 4th in their division, good for a playoffs spot. You cant compare points earned in different division if said divisions didnt even play against each other it means absolutly nothing.

I will completely agree with this. However, I can still hold my opinion that the North was soft.

Montreal also play more games in less days than pretty much anyone else due to Covid with significant injuries at the same time. The others teams affected by such events like Dallas and Vancouver did not made the playoffs.

This is where you are wrong. Plenty of teams dealt with covid issues. Ex. The Panthers had a bunch of games canceled early in the season due to covid issues with the Stars and I believe Lightning. That resulted in a compressed schedule the rest of the way. After the first few weeks, they had 2 days between games like once or twice the rest of the season. To argue that a single team had it the worst is absolutely silly unless you want to go through and actually point to data proving your point.

They were doing pretty well first few months

This also coincided with playing 20 of their first 34 games against Ottawa, Vancouver, and Calgary. If you include WPG who finished 3rd in the division, 26 of their first 34 games. What a weird coincidence.

 

[bobholly39]

disagree completely that 7th would be a top team.


here you go making stuff up again. Nobody knew they would be as good as they ended up being and nobody definitely claimed the Panthers were poised to break out. Forsling was a complete revelation. Smart people were talking about Verhaeghe as the next Marchessault signing when it happened, but nobody predicted he would be as good as he was.

The key being, that those players did break out. And they did it in a way that both to the eye and the analytics looks sustainable. The Panthers found two diamonds in the rough that were buried on deep teams.

This. All of this.

I will completely agree with this. However, I can still hold my opinion that the North was soft.

This is where you are wrong. Plenty of teams dealt with covid issues. Ex. The Panthers had a bunch of games canceled early in the season due to covid issues with the Stars and I believe Lightning. That resulted in a compressed schedule the rest of the way. After the first few weeks, they had 2 days between games like once or twice the rest of the season. To argue that a single team had it the worst is absolutely silly unless you want to go through and actually point to data proving your point.


This also coincided with playing 20 of their first 34 games against Ottawa, Vancouver, and Calgary. If you include WPG who finished 3rd in the division, 26 of their first 34 games. What a weird coincidence.

Dallas made the cup final. Then HF voted next year they're the 7th most likely Cup favorites. Semantics aside of whether 7th should be qualified as a 'top team' or not (ridiculous that you're arguing it shouldn't) - they still got a ton of respect going into the following year.

Montreal played 20 or their 34 first games against Ottawa, Vancouver and Calgary? Ok, and? Record against Ottawa was 500, and Calgary they had 3 wins and 6 losses. They didn't exactly torch the weak teams lol, outside of Vancouver. They had a winning record against Edmonton. Montreal hit a road bump when they had a bunch of key injuries + covid (lost Gallagher, Price, Weber, Danault and many others) - they didn't hit a road bump because all of a sudden they were facing certain teams. Weird argument if that's what you were going with...

Panther fans are being way too cocky this off season. Someone suggesting they may not be a top team this year gets them all up in the arms. The fact of the matter is that they have had one successful season in the past 4 years - last year - when nobody really expected them to - and still lost in round 1 of the playoffs. Maybe they build on that and have another strong season, and maybe they don't. They have some glaring question marks (like - goalies), as do many other teams in the Atlantic (yes, including Montreal). If that's too hard a reality for some fans to swallow - well, that's on you guys.

 

[The90]

Probably not - but in this hypothetical is it an 82 game season or 56 game season? Because the shortened season hit them particularly hard. They were doing pretty well first few months - but then had their Covid outbreak, and a rash ofikey injuries, and all in the last month had a horrible finish. But that ~12-15 game stretch of bad play buried in a longer 82 games (without the extra covid week issue, so may have been less games) - they might still have made the playoffs.

The answer isn’t probably. You wouldn’t have. You can blame the end of season destruction on a whole host of things. They’ve done the same thing down the stretch for the last several years have they not? Hot start and blow up down the stretch.

 

[bobholly39]

The answer isn’t probably. You wouldn’t have. You can blame the end of season destruction on a whole host of things. They’ve done the same thing down the stretch for the last several years have they not? Hot start and blow up down the stretch.

I'm not sure why we're going down these hypotheticals that have no basis in reality.

The reality is - Habs were safely in playoff position all season long last year, and never came close to missing. Did they coast a bit down the stretch? If they were in a different division, would they have had to try harder and rush players like Price or Weber back earlier to qualify for playoffs? Maybe, who knows. But within the confines of last season - there was never a time when they were at risk of missing out. So they qualified for playoffs, and went all the way to the finals. Moreso than teams like Toronto or Florida who can't win a playoff round to save their lives.

If you want to look at how many points they finished with - it's not a lot. The injuries down the stretch really hurt them a lot. They were playing well before - and obviously played great after the returns from injuries in the playoffs. But again - why are we even going into hypotheticals?

 

[Stuzchuk]

+/- .675
Florida
Tampa

+/-.625
Toronto
Boston
----
+/- .550
Ottawa
Montreal

+/-.450
Detroit

+/-.350
Buffalo

 

[Beezeral]

Panther fans are being way too cocky this off season. Someone suggesting they may not be a top team this year gets them all up in the arms. The fact of the matter is that they have had one successful season in the past 4 years - last year - when nobody really expected them to - and still lost in round 1 of the playoffs. Maybe they build on that and have another strong season, and maybe they don't. They have some glaring question marks (like - goalies), as do many other teams in the Atlantic (yes, including Montreal). If that's too hard a reality for some fans to swallow - well, that's on you guys.

There are plenty of Panthers fans holding off on planning the parade. I know I'm one of them. What this entire discussion has been about is that you continually make incorrect statements regarding the Panthers as a way to support your prediction that the Habs will finish above them in the standings. Every one of your criticisms of the Panthers apply to the Habs but to a larger degree. It's honestly a bit comical watching you go in circles to find faults with other teams in the division to prop up your Habs prediction. Your only leg to stand on is a miracle run to the finals where the Habs were quickly dispatched by the Lightning. If you ask any Lightning fan, they will all say their easiest series was the Cup Finals.

 

[pb1300]

Dallas made the cup final. Then HF voted next year they're the 7th most likely Cup favorites. Semantics aside of whether 7th should be qualified as a 'top team' or not (ridiculous that you're arguing it shouldn't) - they still got a ton of respect going into the following year.

Montreal played 20 or their 34 first games against Ottawa, Vancouver and Calgary? Ok, and? Record against Ottawa was 500, and Calgary they had 3 wins and 6 losses. They didn't exactly torch the weak teams lol, outside of Vancouver. They had a winning record against Edmonton. Montreal hit a road bump when they had a bunch of key injuries + covid (lost Gallagher, Price, Weber, Danault and many others) - they didn't hit a road bump because all of a sudden they were facing certain teams. Weird argument if that's what you were going with...

Panther fans are being way too cocky this off season. Someone suggesting they may not be a top team this year gets them all up in the arms. The fact of the matter is that they have had one successful season in the past 4 years - last year - when nobody really expected them to - and still lost in round 1 of the playoffs. Maybe they build on that and have another strong season, and maybe they don't. They have some glaring question marks (like - goalies), as do many other teams in the Atlantic (yes, including Montreal). If that's too hard a reality for some fans to swallow - well, that's on you guys.

WHERE ARE THESE GLARING QUESTION MARKS? You’ve said things about them, then in a different post, you go against the very things you say about them in that previous post, and you refuse to answer what these glaring holes you keep saying they have, after admitting that you don’t know much about the team. Jesus just stop already.

Their main question mark is in goal. And it was the same question mark last season, before Knight came in. And again, for as bad to his standards Bob was last season, we still were a .610 team in his games. And since then, Zito improved the team in front of him this off-season. He and Knight have as good as an opportunity to be a better tandem than any team in the division, except for the Bolts.

What are the other question marks? The only other question we have is who Zito is going to trade from that stacked forward group, to add another Dman to the roster. That is the one other hole the team might have, which is another 4/5 Dman. Other than that, they are stacked.

 

[J1mLahey]

Florida
Tampa
Boston
Toronto
Ottawa
Montreal
Detroit
Buffalo

 

[libertarian]

Sure, why not

Which team finishes with more points this season?

Ouch!

Game. Set. Match.

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

Ouch!

Game. Set. Match.

Similar polls last year were also amusing when many didn't have the Habs past the first round.
That's why predictions mean nothing, only good to kill some time.

 

[libertarian]

Similar polls last year were also amusing when many didn't have the Habs past the first round.
That's why predictions mean nothing, only good to kill some time.

Totally agree, I always find it amusing how seriously some people take these polls. The real season is starting soon then we will have some real stuff to argue about.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Dallas made the cup final. Then HF voted next year they're the 7th most likely Cup favorites. Semantics aside of whether 7th should be qualified as a 'top team' or not (ridiculous that you're arguing it shouldn't) - they still got a ton of respect going into the following year.

Montreal played 20 or their 34 first games against Ottawa, Vancouver and Calgary? Ok, and? Record against Ottawa was 500, and Calgary they had 3 wins and 6 losses. They didn't exactly torch the weak teams lol, outside of Vancouver. They had a winning record against Edmonton. Montreal hit a road bump when they had a bunch of key injuries + covid (lost Gallagher, Price, Weber, Danault and many others) - they didn't hit a road bump because all of a sudden they were facing certain teams. Weird argument if that's what you were going with...

Panther fans are being way too cocky this off season. Someone suggesting they may not be a top team this year gets them all up in the arms. The fact of the matter is that they have had one successful season in the past 4 years - last year - when nobody really expected them to - and still lost in round 1 of the playoffs. Maybe they build on that and have another strong season, and maybe they don't. They have some glaring question marks (like - goalies), as do many other teams in the Atlantic (yes, including Montreal). If that's too hard a reality for some fans to swallow - well, that's on you guys.

I think the major difference between Dallas getting "respect" the following year after a Cup final appearance and the Habs not getting the same "respect" is because of the roster compositions of each team. Montreal still lacks those high end elite talent that usually separates the playoff locks from the playoff bubble teams, while Dallas has them.

When you looked at Dallas' roster, you didn't see any massive holes. "On paper" they had the high end forwards like Radulov, Seguin, Pavelski, and Benn, they had young talent in the supporting cast like Hintz and Gurianov, and they had a stud young blueline with Heiskenen, Klingberg and Lindell anchoring it.

When you look at Montreal, you still see no proven 1C, you see a team that's heavily reliant on youngsters like Caufield and Suzuki taking the next step for them to even have a chance, and you see the departures of Danault (left via free agency) and Weber (injury) opening up two new holes in the roster.

IMO, apples and oranges situations because one roster has more holes than the other.