Predators Hockey Discussion 22-23

[PredsV82]

There is a difference between having a bunch of really good defensemen and playing good defense as a team. We have a bunch of really good defensemen. And for about half of last year we played really good defense as a team. Then everyone decided they were going to worry more about individual stats than winning games and we became very mediocre

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Simple. Our defense isn’t top 5. At least not in recent years.

It’s for next season not recent years.

 

[drwpreds]

I don't know about top 5 this year but it will be disappointing if we aren't at least top 10...

 

[drwpreds]

So the main board has a thread about Top 5 and Bottom 5 D corps. There’s a pretty broad consensus placing us in the Top 5. Surely the Vezina rankings say we also have Top 5 goaltending right?

Just how bad are our forwards then? Granted a fair bit is riding on guys repeating somewhat unexpected numbers last season. But higher numbers were fairly common around the league in general last year right? Are our forwards worse than middle of the pack?

Then if you have Top 5 defenders and goaltending and even just middle of the pack forwards, is that not a pretty good team?

Or when the standings predictions come out against that, could it be something else? Coaching? What gives?

I may be looking at the wrong thread but the one I am looking at there are only a couple of people mentioning us in the top 5. ?????

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

There is a difference between having a bunch of really good defensemen and playing good defense as a team. We have a bunch of really good defensemen. And for about half of last year we played really good defense as a team. Then everyone decided they were going to worry more about individual stats than winning games and we became very mediocre

And I think this is the key that I was thinking we needed to get to. You can have an impressive group "on paper"... but if they aren't playing well it doesn't mean anything. And that basically goes to coaching, right?

Anyway, the whole McDonagh addition is a big one, so that's a "TBD" in how things all ultimately shake out.

I may be looking at the wrong thread but the one I am looking at there are only a couple of people mentioning us in the top 5. ?????

My impression was that almost everybody put us there?

 

[NoNecksCurse]

It’s for next season not recent years.

i would rate next years roster like this (with a lot of my own assumptions in regards to progressions and regressions)

Forwards 11th to 15th in the league
Defense 6th to 10th in the league
Goalie 6th to 10th in the league

 

[Olderfan]

Interesting outlook but that’s all it is..an outlook. D is played on the ice snd the season hasn’t begun. So, we’ll see.

 

[triggrman]

So the main board has a thread about Top 5 and Bottom 5 D corps. There’s a pretty broad consensus placing us in the Top 5. Surely the Vezina rankings say we also have Top 5 goaltending right?

Just how bad are our forwards then? Granted a fair bit is riding on guys repeating somewhat unexpected numbers last season. But higher numbers were fairly common around the league in general last year right? Are our forwards worse than middle of the pack?

Then if you have Top 5 defenders and goaltending and even just middle of the pack forwards, is that not a pretty good team?

Or when the standings predictions come out against that, could it be something else? Coaching? What gives?

I think our biggest flaw in our defense last season was depth of actual defensive defensemen, I also think with the additions of Lauzon and McDonagh, have helped that.

Going into last season we had Benning and Boro as the 3rd paring which neither are talented enough to be shutdown defenders, Carrier can't play a stay at home role or anything close to it. Fabbro got better but he's not there, so all you really had was Ekholm. That's not much balance. And honestly, you want Ekholm to be able to join the rush some too, having Carrier as a partner prevented that. That's why I'd like to see Ekholm with Fabbro, I think having a more reliable partner will help Fabbro, and having a more defensive minded partner will also allow Ekholm to join the rush a bit more. IMHO, Ekholm is better joining the rush than Carrier. McDonagh is used to that shutdown role, so put him with Josi, to continue to allow Josi to be that rover style defenseman.

Carrier can carry the puck with Lauzon, in fact Lauzon needs that type partner, so they help balance each other while playing more protected minutes.

As far as how bad were we up front. McCarron, Cousins, Tolvanen, Luff, Kunin, Smith, all had below expected seasons for whatever reason. I think the additions Glass, Nino and the maturation of Tomasino and Tolvanen will help us there.

i would rate next years roster like this (with a lot of my own assumptions in regards to progressions and regressions)

Forwards 11th to 15th in the league
Defense 6th to 10th in the league
Goalie 6th to 10th in the league

I'd like to know the defenses you have 1-5 if the Predators are 6th. As well as what 6 goalies are better than Saros.

Not saying you're wrong, just curious.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Like others have said it feels like we should have a top five defense when you look at the names, but we were 17th in GA last season even with a Vezina finalist in goal so clearly something wasn't right there. For the latter third of the season we were even lower than that as far as goals against too. Granted some of that was the egregious amount of penalties we took all year, but even 5 v 5 we were 10th in GA last season. McDonagh + Lauzon should help a lot so we will see if we can improve enough to actually be top five.

As far as goalies Saros should be a top five level starter, but the backup situation is such a question mark I don't really even know where to rank us overall.

As a whole I feel like this team could potentially compete for the 2nd best team in the West behind Colorado if all goes right. That being said if a couple players regress from last season (particularly if we get the good not great Saros we got in the second half last year) this team could very easily not make the playoffs too.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Like others have said it feels like we should have a top five defense when you look at the names, but we were 17th in GA last season even with a Vezina finalist in goal so clearly something wasn't right there. For the latter third of the season we were even lower than that as far as goals against too. Granted some of that was the egregious amount of penalties we took all year, but even 5 v 5 we were 10th in GA last season. McDonagh + Lauzon should help a lot so we will see if we can improve enough to actually be top five.

As far as goalies Saros should be a top five level starter, but the backup situation is such a question mark I don't really even know where to rank us overall.

As a whole I feel like this team could potentially compete for the 2nd best team in the West behind Colorado if all goes right. That being said if a couple players regress from last season (particularly if we get the good not great Saros we got in the second half last year) this team could very easily not make the playoffs too.

Is there a way to look at the GA average in chunks? I thought we were in a decent place to start the year. Things really blew up from my perspective a month before the TDL and continued to worsen until the season was over.

 

[triggrman]

Is there a way to look at the GA average in chunks? I thought we were in a decent place to start the year. Things really blew up from my perspective a month before the TDL and continued to worsen until the season was over.

NHL.com lets you set dates

We were 7th before the allstar game.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Is there a way to look at the GA average in chunks? I thought we were in a decent place to start the year. Things really blew up from my perspective a month before the TDL and continued to worsen until the season was over.

You can use the sort by game feature on NHL.com to separate by date. Pre-all star break we were 8th in GA/GP and 23rd in GA/GP after the all star break so yeah that observation tracks.

I also noticed this morning that NHL.com has us giving up 250 goals during the season but hockey-reference.com has us giving up 252 goals. Not sure what the discrepancy is.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

You can use the sort by game feature on NHL.com to separate by date. Pre-all star break we were 8th in GA/GP and 23rd in GA/GP after the all star break so yeah that observation tracks.

I also noticed this morning that NHL.com has us giving up 250 goals during the season but hockey-reference.com has us giving up 252 goals. Not sure what the discrepancy is.

Sheesh...wheels falling off is an understatement.

 

[Olderfan]

Clock is ticking(faster now) on Trenin. Time to close this.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Clock is ticking(faster now) on Trenin. Time to close this.

Puljujarvi signed for $3M with 14g/22a. Lundestrom for $1.8M with 16g/13a.

Or I guess... Kunin signed for $2.75M.

Somewhere in that range seems obvious, Where our Cap and lineup is at, I wouldn't be pushing too hard for a "bargain" if I was in Poile's shoes. We're obviously comfortable with something like 1-yr at $2.4M. Trenin is obviously comfortable with a 1-yr deal since he elected to go to arbitration. So I don't really see that much to be gained in hashing out the process and trying to shave him down too much. If I was doing these things... from either side actually... I guess I'd be a little more willing to just buy some goodwill for the next contract as opposed to going at it tooth and nail on this one.

 

[triggrman]

Sheesh...wheels falling off is an understatement.

Well when you're bottom 6 on the penalty kill but number 1 in penalties taken, that's what happens.

 

[triggrman]

During that post all-star stretch we were #1 in times short handed, #2 in short handed goals against.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

 

[LCPreds]

Sample size is small for the Preds and vs. the worst possible opponent for measurement but I thought the Josi category call out was funny:

1) Josi: Open Door
2) Ekholm: High Risk
3) Carrier: Forcing Dump-Ins
4) Fabbro: Brick Wall (I'm assuming this is Fabbro but not certain since the name is covered)

I think folks can discount analytics to a point but in relationship to one another using the same background metrics I do find comparisons to be interesting. The Colorado defense is absolutely amazing based on this chart.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

I'd like to know the defenses you have 1-5 if the Predators are 6th. As well as what 6 goalies are better than Saros.

Not saying you're wrong, just curious.

We were dead middle in goals against last year… i think it’s a little more of a stretch to say our defense and goalie are top 5s. if that was the case, we wouldn’t be average in goals against, no?

Saros is a top 5 goalie but our backup situation has been questionable at best. Saros with the backup uncertainty puts us in the 6-10 range.

Defense is also 6-10 for a plethora of reasons. Main reason for me is that there is a lot more than just point totals. We lack actual defenseman that can really just play sound defensively in their own zone consistently. I think McDonagh is a great add in that regard.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

We were dead middle in goals against last year… i think it’s a little more of a stretch to say our defense and goalie are top 5s. if that was the case, we wouldn’t be average in goals against, no?

Saros is a top 5 goalie but our backup situation has been questionable at best. Saros with the backup uncertainty puts us in the 6-10 range.

Defense is also 6-10 for a plethora of reasons. Main reason for me is that there is a lot more than just point totals. We lack actual defenseman that can really just play sound defensively in their own zone consistently. I think McDonagh is a great add in that regard.

I am at least HOPING for the additions to help... but also the subtractions. Lauzon and McDonagh "in" is one part of it. But also we had some spotty and porous performances from all those other guys like Harpur, Myers, Benning. And as long as everybody is healthy, Boro might not play much either. I didn't think he was too bad, but he certainly had one thing first on his mind. If everybody just goes back to doing their jobs, I think the potential is there for a top-5 defense. It almost was for 50 games last year even with worse personnel. The coaching staff should be able to figure out how to get it back there and keep it there.

Of course, often overlooked in defensive play is how much the forwards cover for the D, how they make themselves available for outlets, how they help out in the myriad of ways they can help out. And that part of our team's performance slipped as much as anything in last season's crash.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

As far as Triggs question of 5 better defenses. I see that I ignored that so let me try to list them for records sake.

COL TB are 2 easy one. i would then take Carolina and NYR over ours. Calgary has better guys from 1-6. Depending on your opinion of Josi, I could see the argument for ours over theirs as they lack a true #1. STL is about even with us overall imo.

we have a good defense. not saying we don’t but the eye test and how we match up across the league says it is not top 5.

Adding McDonagh and solidifying that bottom pair could do wonders. if top 5 goalie and defense holds true, then Hynes should be the perfect coach to get the results that back up the top 5 claims. I haven’t seen it yet personally.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I may be looking at the wrong thread but the one I am looking at there are only a couple of people mentioning us in the top 5. ?????

BTW, funny but there are actually two threads. I went back to re-read and was like hold on, this isn't the same thing I read before....

 

[triggrman]

We were dead middle in goals against last year… i think it’s a little more of a stretch to say our defense and goalie are top 5s. if that was the case, we wouldn’t be average in goals against, no?

Saros is a top 5 goalie but our backup situation has been questionable at best. Saros with the backup uncertainty puts us in the 6-10 range.

Defense is also 6-10 for a plethora of reasons. Main reason for me is that there is a lot more than just point totals. We lack actual defenseman that can really just play sound defensively in their own zone consistently. I think McDonagh is a great add in that regard.

At even strength, we were 11th, Colorado was 10th, and Tampa was 6th.

our biggest fails were on the pk and our overall coverage in the zone.

I think this year that will improve, and dramatically. We'll see though. The polls though were talking about defensemen only, talent wise, and 2022-2023 season.

surprisingly, Vancouver, Calgary, Boston and Carolina were the top 5-5 teams last season. I wouldn't call any of those top 5 defenses.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

At even strength, we were 11th, Colorado was 10th, and Tampa was 6th.

our biggest fails were on the pk and our overall coverage in the zone.

I think this year that will improve, and dramatically. We'll see though. The polls though were talking about defensemen only, talent wise, and 2022-2023 season.

surprisingly, Vancouver, Calgary, Boston and Carolina were the top 5-5 teams last season. I wouldn't call any of those top 5 defenses.

i must be mistaken. if we are talking next years alone on talent then we would have to be top 5 going into next year after adding McDonagh. i also said I was assuming alot as far progressions and regressions. until I see it on the ice, I can’t say we have a top 5 defense.

i am not using goals against as the end all be all. just trying to back up what my mind tells me. we were also 16th in the league in points scored by defenseman. our bottom pair is a black hole offensively (was). Fabbro got hurt and we lacked depth. Ekholm had a down year compared to my expectations last year as well.

i think you said it above but taking by far the most penalties in the league is skewing the argument in my favor a little bit as far as GA, total points by defense, ect