Power vs L. Hughes vs Edvinsson vs Clarke

[FriendlyGhost92]

Hughes
Clarke
Power
Edvinsson

Clarke has upside to overtake Hughes though

lolwut

 

[Breakers]

Are you claiming Forsberg and Josi have been as good this year as they were last year? Because they definitely haven't been.

And that worse play is a PART of why the team as a whole is worse.

Yes, your better players will have good relative xGoals% compared to your worse players, consistent accross the league.


What that MISSES, is that better teams have better players. Thats why they are better teams. Do you not see the issue with having 0% on the worst team in hockey and 0% on the best team in hockey say you are performing the same in relative numbers.

What fans of bad teams fail to recognize, is that better PLAYERS create better teams, not the other way around. The devils are better because they have dominant players like luke hughes.

Also, in terms of relative numbers, Luke has a better differential than Edvinsson now.
View attachment 946164
View attachment 946173

So your whole argument there is GONE. Luke IS seperating himself more

Important to note in this conversation.

Luke now has better relative numbers than Edvinsson too.

Edvinsson has struggled the last few games and Luke has continued to dominate (combined with a brutal dougie-dillon game vs Chi and a masterclass luke-pesce game)

Dominate?

 

[dgibb10]

Dominate?

Yes. Dominate.

your league leader in expected goals share is Luke Hughes.

 

[Breakers]

Yes. Dominate.

your league leader in expected goals share is Luke Hughes.

Give me a break
There is a Hughes dominating the league on defense this year and his name sure as hell doesn’t start with L

 

[dgibb10]

Give me a break
There is a Hughes dominating the league on defense this year and his name sure as hell doesn’t start with L

View attachment 946831

Now, do you understand what that actually says and how it translates or do you just spout a graph.

How that reads is:

Excellent defensively, great offensively, ridiculously unlucky offensively.

Which tracks by watching the games, OISH, expected goals metrics, etc.

And of course, the numbers are also TOTAL, not rate, (but has a minimum cutoff to qualify). So Luke missing 9 games is hurting his totals (see how it says 60 GP, that's the prorated games over a full season).

And finally, there is how it is calculated. It's based on relative to teammates metrics, with a modifier for team strength. Unfortunately, while working on a general level, it misses things such as the positional strengths of a team.

If a team has an elite dcore, every member will be punished, and every forward rewarded.
If a team has a top to bottom stacked forward group carrying them, every forward will be punished.

NJD is built from the back with 3 excellent pairings. So they are all compared against eachother in the relative metrics, but the forward group drags down them when it comes to a league wide metric.

In this case of Luke Hughes and Simon Edvinsson, it is appararent.

The forward groups are relatively similar in quality, with an edge to NJD fs, but not a massive one.

However, in the relative Metrics, Luke is being compared to Siegs, Dillon, Kovy and Hamilton.
Edvinsson is being compared to Holl, Chiarot, Petry, and Gustafsson.

The metrics work excellently to compare guys over their careers where factors like this balance out. shooting %s regulate and guys who consistently outperform models are recognized (which is why GAR is involved in the offensive calculation but not defensive, because over large sample sizes patterns of guys over/underperforming offensive xG happens). team composition evens out and the accuracy of the adjustment becomes better.

 

[Breakers]

Now, do you understand what that actually says and how it translates or do you just spout a graph.

How that reads is:

Excellent defensively, great offensively, ridiculously unlucky offensively.

Which tracks by watching the games, OISH, expected goals metrics, etc.

And of course, the numbers are also TOTAL, not rate, (but has a minimum cutoff to qualify). So Luke missing 9 games is hurting his totals (see how it says 60 GP, that's the prorated games over a full season).

And finally, there is how it is calculated. It's based on relative to teammates metrics, with a modifier for team strength. Unfortunately, while working on a general level, it misses things such as the positional strengths of a team.

If a team has an elite dcore, every member will be punished, and every forward rewarded.
If a team has a top to bottom stacked forward group carrying them, every forward will be punished.

NJD is built from the back with 3 excellent pairings. So they are all compared against eachother in the relative metrics, but the forward group drags down them when it comes to a league wide metric.

In this case of Luke Hughes and Simon Edvinsson, it is appararent.

The forward groups are relatively similar in quality, with an edge to NJD fs, but not a massive one.

However, in the relative Metrics, Luke is being compared to Siegs, Dillon, Kovy and Hamilton.
Edvinsson is being compared to Holl, Chiarot, Petry, and Gustafsson.

The metrics work excellently to compare guys over their careers where factors like this balance out. shooting %s regulate and guys who consistently outperform models are recognized (which is why GAR is involved in the offensive calculation but not defensive, because over large sample sizes patterns of guys over/underperforming offensive xG happens). team composition evens out and the accuracy of the adjustment becomes better.

And yet nothing about his underlying efficiency numbers screams “dominating”

 

[dgibb10]

And yet nothing about his underlying efficiency numbers screams “dominating”

Other than the "leading the league in expected goal share" part yeah.

 

[Breakers]

Other than the "leading the league in expected goal share" part yeah.

Which doesn’t indicate dominating

You have one underlying metric and you’re like he’s dominating

LOL
His brother is dominating
Luke…… he doesn’t even have the best underlying numbers on his own teams defense core

 

[dgibb10]

Which doesn’t indicate dominating

You have one underlying metric and you’re like he’s dominating

LOL
His brother is dominating
Luke…… he doesn’t even have the best underlying numbers on his own teams defense core

They are both dominating, I know crazy stuff.

More than one player in the NHL can be dominating.

 

[Breakers]

They are both dominating, I know crazy stuff.

More than one player in the NHL can be dominating.

Not even the best expected results on his own teams defense core.


And the league


He doesnt even have the best expected results as a pairing on his own team

 

[dgibb10]

Not even the best expected results on his own teams defense core.
View attachment 947002

And the league
View attachment 947007

He doesnt even have the best expected results as a pairing on his own team

I wonder if having 10 fewer games may impact total numbers.

 

[Breakers]

I wonder if having 10 fewer games may impact total numbers.

So vince dunn, and hampus lindholm
Thats not the way this works.

 

[dgibb10]

So vince dunn, and hampus lindholm
Thats not the way this works.

Yes, also excellent seasons from them.

Do you not understand that this is a counting stat, not a rate stat?

 

[Clam Jensen]

Yes, also excellent seasons from them.

Do you not understand that this is a counting stat, not a rate stat?

I don’t think he understands half of what he’s saying. Hes just mad that you’re right.

 

[dgibb10]

I don’t think he understands half of what he’s saying. Hes just mad that you’re right.

In terms of why Kovys relative numbers are better than Luke's (if they even are anymore), the answer is simple.

Casey and Nemec sucked ass as a pairing.

 

[Clam Jensen]

In terms of why Kovys relative numbers are better than Luke's (if they even are anymore), the answer is simple.

Casey and Nemec sucked ass as a pairing.

Yea they were getting absolutely caved.

 

[Breakers]

I don’t think he understands half of what he’s saying. Hes just mad that you’re right.

I guess you guys have lowe standards for “dominating”

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I guess you guys have lowe standards for “dominating”

You're posting aggregate metrics like it means anything for a guy who's missed 30% of the season...

 

[Albatros]

Edvinsson over Power, though Clarke being a RHD might fill a need.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

Now, do you understand what that actually says and how it translates or do you just spout a graph.

How that reads is:

Excellent defensively, great offensively, ridiculously unlucky offensively.

Which tracks by watching the games, OISH, expected goals metrics, etc.

And of course, the numbers are also TOTAL, not rate, (but has a minimum cutoff to qualify). So Luke missing 9 games is hurting his totals (see how it says 60 GP, that's the prorated games over a full season).

And finally, there is how it is calculated. It's based on relative to teammates metrics, with a modifier for team strength. Unfortunately, while working on a general level, it misses things such as the positional strengths of a team.

If a team has an elite dcore, every member will be punished, and every forward rewarded.
If a team has a top to bottom stacked forward group carrying them, every forward will be punished.

NJD is built from the back with 3 excellent pairings. So they are all compared against eachother in the relative metrics, but the forward group drags down them when it comes to a league wide metric.

In this case of Luke Hughes and Simon Edvinsson, it is appararent.

The forward groups are relatively similar in quality, with an edge to NJD fs, but not a massive one.

However, in the relative Metrics, Luke is being compared to Siegs, Dillon, Kovy and Hamilton.
Edvinsson is being compared to Holl, Chiarot, Petry, and Gustafsson.

The metrics work excellently to compare guys over their careers where factors like this balance out. shooting %s regulate and guys who consistently outperform models are recognized (which is why GAR is involved in the offensive calculation but not defensive, because over large sample sizes patterns of guys over/underperforming offensive xG happens). team composition evens out and the accuracy of the adjustment becomes better.

Dude is really gonna talk about how the op doesn't understand how the graph works and then drops this gem. Can't make this shit up.

 

[dgibb10]

Dude is really gonna talk about how the op doesn't understand how the graph works and then drops this gem. Can't make this shit up.

NJDs success is built from the back end out this year.

 

[RedHawkDown]

NJDs success is built from the back end out this year.

That's fine, but a team with J. Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Meier up front is most definitely better than a group of Larkin, Raymond, DeBrincat, and then essentially nothing.

Hughes>Raymond
Bratt>=Larkin
Hischier>>DeBrincat
Meier>>>>>everybody else

 

[dgibb10]

That's fine, but a team with J. Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Meier up front is most definitely better than a group of Larkin, Raymond, DeBrincat, and then essentially nothing.

Hughes>Raymond
Bratt>=Larkin
Hischier>>DeBrincat
Meier>>>>>everybody else

Currently, the gap between Luke Hughes and Simon Edvinsson in expected goals share 5v5 is bigger than the gap between Edvinsson and Jordan Harris in dead last.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Currently, the gap between Luke Hughes and Simon Edvinsson in expected goals share 5v5 is bigger than the gap between Edvinsson and Jordan Harris in dead last.

That wasn’t the point I was responding to. I agree Hughes is having a better season though Ed is also having a very good one. It’s hard to compare them IMO due to Ed’s extremely difficult deployment but the only way to know if that’s the difference is in the future when the Wings (hopefully) improve overall and Ed-Seider don’t have to take absurd matchups.

But your assertion that the Devils forwards are the same as the Wings forwards is just wrong.

 

[dgibb10]

That wasn’t the point I was responding to. I agree Hughes is having a better season though Ed is also having a very good one. It’s hard to compare them IMO due to Ed’s extremely difficult deployment but the only way to know if that’s the difference is in the future when the Wings (hopefully) improve overall and Ed-Seider don’t have to take absurd matchups.

But your assertion that the Devils forwards are the same as the Wings forwards is just wrong.

I didn't say they were the same. I am saying the gap is not nearly as big as it is made out to be by some.

The devils have what I'd call a lower end of the top 10 forward group or so. I'd put the wings somewhere in the mid/late teens. I don't think it is a massive gap. Like I said, NJD 100% has a gap, but it is not the insurmountable one some claim.

Especially when accompanied by the claim that Seider is significantly better than Pesce, which would counter or outweigh most of that gap since he is spending 100% of his time with Seider

The devils 4th line has been mostly AHLers in luke's time. The 3rd line has struggled.

Especially when, in most debates with red wings fans, the claim is that Larkin Debrincat and Raymond are comparable or better than Nico Bratt Meier.