Power vs L. Hughes vs Edvinsson vs Clarke

[FriendlyGhost92]

Hughes
Clarke
Power
Edvinsson

Clarke has upside to overtake Hughes though

lolwut

 

[Breakers]

Are you claiming Forsberg and Josi have been as good this year as they were last year? Because they definitely haven't been.

And that worse play is a PART of why the team as a whole is worse.

Yes, your better players will have good relative xGoals% compared to your worse players, consistent accross the league.


What that MISSES, is that better teams have better players. Thats why they are better teams. Do you not see the issue with having 0% on the worst team in hockey and 0% on the best team in hockey say you are performing the same in relative numbers.

What fans of bad teams fail to recognize, is that better PLAYERS create better teams, not the other way around. The devils are better because they have dominant players like luke hughes.

Also, in terms of relative numbers, Luke has a better differential than Edvinsson now.
View attachment 946164
View attachment 946173

So your whole argument there is GONE. Luke IS seperating himself more

Important to note in this conversation.

Luke now has better relative numbers than Edvinsson too.

Edvinsson has struggled the last few games and Luke has continued to dominate (combined with a brutal dougie-dillon game vs Chi and a masterclass luke-pesce game)

Dominate?

 

[dgibb10]

Dominate?

Yes. Dominate.

your league leader in expected goals share is Luke Hughes.

 

[Breakers]

Yes. Dominate.

your league leader in expected goals share is Luke Hughes.

Give me a break
There is a Hughes dominating the league on defense this year and his name sure as hell doesn’t start with L

 

[dgibb10]

Give me a break
There is a Hughes dominating the league on defense this year and his name sure as hell doesn’t start with L

View attachment 946831

Now, do you understand what that actually says and how it translates or do you just spout a graph.

How that reads is:

Excellent defensively, great offensively, ridiculously unlucky offensively.

Which tracks by watching the games, OISH, expected goals metrics, etc.

And of course, the numbers are also TOTAL, not rate, (but has a minimum cutoff to qualify). So Luke missing 9 games is hurting his totals (see how it says 60 GP, that's the prorated games over a full season).

And finally, there is how it is calculated. It's based on relative to teammates metrics, with a modifier for team strength. Unfortunately, while working on a general level, it misses things such as the positional strengths of a team.

If a team has an elite dcore, every member will be punished, and every forward rewarded.
If a team has a top to bottom stacked forward group carrying them, every forward will be punished.

NJD is built from the back with 3 excellent pairings. So they are all compared against eachother in the relative metrics, but the forward group drags down them when it comes to a league wide metric.

In this case of Luke Hughes and Simon Edvinsson, it is appararent.

The forward groups are relatively similar in quality, with an edge to NJD fs, but not a massive one.

However, in the relative Metrics, Luke is being compared to Siegs, Dillon, Kovy and Hamilton.
Edvinsson is being compared to Holl, Chiarot, Petry, and Gustafsson.

The metrics work excellently to compare guys over their careers where factors like this balance out. shooting %s regulate and guys who consistently outperform models are recognized (which is why GAR is involved in the offensive calculation but not defensive, because over large sample sizes patterns of guys over/underperforming offensive xG happens). team composition evens out and the accuracy of the adjustment becomes better.

 

[Breakers]

Now, do you understand what that actually says and how it translates or do you just spout a graph.

How that reads is:

Excellent defensively, great offensively, ridiculously unlucky offensively.

Which tracks by watching the games, OISH, expected goals metrics, etc.

And of course, the numbers are also TOTAL, not rate, (but has a minimum cutoff to qualify). So Luke missing 9 games is hurting his totals (see how it says 60 GP, that's the prorated games over a full season).

And finally, there is how it is calculated. It's based on relative to teammates metrics, with a modifier for team strength. Unfortunately, while working on a general level, it misses things such as the positional strengths of a team.

If a team has an elite dcore, every member will be punished, and every forward rewarded.
If a team has a top to bottom stacked forward group carrying them, every forward will be punished.

NJD is built from the back with 3 excellent pairings. So they are all compared against eachother in the relative metrics, but the forward group drags down them when it comes to a league wide metric.

In this case of Luke Hughes and Simon Edvinsson, it is appararent.

The forward groups are relatively similar in quality, with an edge to NJD fs, but not a massive one.

However, in the relative Metrics, Luke is being compared to Siegs, Dillon, Kovy and Hamilton.
Edvinsson is being compared to Holl, Chiarot, Petry, and Gustafsson.

The metrics work excellently to compare guys over their careers where factors like this balance out. shooting %s regulate and guys who consistently outperform models are recognized (which is why GAR is involved in the offensive calculation but not defensive, because over large sample sizes patterns of guys over/underperforming offensive xG happens). team composition evens out and the accuracy of the adjustment becomes better.

And yet nothing about his underlying efficiency numbers screams “dominating”

 

[dgibb10]

And yet nothing about his underlying efficiency numbers screams “dominating”

Other than the "leading the league in expected goal share" part yeah.

 

[Breakers]

Other than the "leading the league in expected goal share" part yeah.

Which doesn’t indicate dominating

You have one underlying metric and you’re like he’s dominating

LOL
His brother is dominating
Luke…… he doesn’t even have the best underlying numbers on his own teams defense core

 

[dgibb10]

Which doesn’t indicate dominating

You have one underlying metric and you’re like he’s dominating

LOL
His brother is dominating
Luke…… he doesn’t even have the best underlying numbers on his own teams defense core

They are both dominating, I know crazy stuff.

More than one player in the NHL can be dominating.

 

[Breakers]

They are both dominating, I know crazy stuff.

More than one player in the NHL can be dominating.

Not even the best expected results on his own teams defense core.


And the league


He doesnt even have the best expected results as a pairing on his own team

 

[dgibb10]

Not even the best expected results on his own teams defense core.
View attachment 947002

And the league
View attachment 947007

He doesnt even have the best expected results as a pairing on his own team

I wonder if having 10 fewer games may impact total numbers.

 

[Breakers]

I wonder if having 10 fewer games may impact total numbers.

So vince dunn, and hampus lindholm
Thats not the way this works.

 

[dgibb10]

So vince dunn, and hampus lindholm
Thats not the way this works.

Yes, also excellent seasons from them.

Do you not understand that this is a counting stat, not a rate stat?

 

[Clam Jensen]

Yes, also excellent seasons from them.

Do you not understand that this is a counting stat, not a rate stat?

I don’t think he understands half of what he’s saying. Hes just mad that you’re right.

 

[dgibb10]

I don’t think he understands half of what he’s saying. Hes just mad that you’re right.

In terms of why Kovys relative numbers are better than Luke's (if they even are anymore), the answer is simple.

Casey and Nemec sucked ass as a pairing.

 

[Clam Jensen]

In terms of why Kovys relative numbers are better than Luke's (if they even are anymore), the answer is simple.

Casey and Nemec sucked ass as a pairing.

Yea they were getting absolutely caved.