Poster predicts goal over 5 months out - to the period

[Crazy8oooo]

Wow...pretty insane.

 

[ottawa]

Lmaooo, Based Big Rings, when will the habs bring the cup back to its rightful home?

 

[LeSandvich]

18 players per team, 2 teams = 36 players per game.

Average goals per game = 5.18 (this year)

Number of periods in a game = 3 (overtime obviously changes it slightly, but not important for this)

So, picking a random player, to score in a random period in any game where they score is: 5.18/36/3 = 0.0479 = 4.79%

With 15 guesses that would mean you'd have a 52% chance of being right at least once, 91% chance of being right at least once in 50 guesses.

Ah, it's for a specific player? Great,

190 gp, 5 goals, 3 periods a game = (190*30/)5 = 0.877% chance of guessing a goal in a period for Bartkowski.

In 50 guesses, a 35.6% chance to be right at least once for him. In 82 guesses, a 51.4% chance to be correct at least once.

The only reason this doesn't happen more often is people don't post specific guesses for when a player will score often. I am sure I did some math wrong but this is nowhere near winning the lottery odds or even close which would be something like a 0.0001% chance of getting at least 1 in 82 guesses correct.

What is this evil witchery that exposes our faulty sense of probability? Burn him!

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

18 players per team, 2 teams = 36 players per game.

Average goals per game = 5.18 (this year)

Number of periods in a game = 3 (overtime obviously changes it slightly, but not important for this)

So, picking a random player, to score in a random period in any game where they score is: 5.18/36/3 = 0.0479 = 4.79%

With 15 guesses that would mean you'd have a 52% chance of being right at least once, 91% chance of being right at least once in 50 guesses.

Ah, it's for a specific player? Great,

190 gp, 5 goals, 3 periods a game = (190*30/)5 = 0.877% chance of guessing a goal in a period for Bartkowski.

In 50 guesses, a 35.6% chance to be right at least once for him. In 82 guesses, a 51.4% chance to be correct at least once.

The only reason this doesn't happen more often is people don't post specific guesses for when a player will score often. I am sure I did some math wrong but this is nowhere near winning the lottery odds or even close which would be something like a 0.0001% chance of getting at least 1 in 82 guesses correct.

Based on your math, the odds would have been equal to predict Ovechkin scoring in a specific period of a specific game as they are for Bartkowski.
Is that correct?

 

[Grare]

This some black magic type of prediction wtf

 

[Nucker101]

We are not worthy!

 

[QnebO]

Give him title like "hf hall of famer" next to his name. He is a legend basically.

 

[Fighter]

Unreal, how the heck did you come up with this Big Rings?!?

 

[ihaveyuidonttouchme]

im more surprised the fact that OP remembers the post 5 months ago....i dont even remember my own posts 3 days ago let alone 5 months

 

[1989]

slowclap.gif

 

[Fanned On It]

The best thing I've seen happen on here so far. Amazing.

 

[TaLoN]

Unreal, how the heck did you come up with this Big Rings?!?

I'd guess purely random... but hilarious and awesome none-the-less!

 

[Beniersgeron]

Bro you could use this one extremely luck prediction on the powerball instead

But anyhow, awesome stuff this is.

 

[TaLoN]

Bro you could use this one extremely luck prediction on the powerball instead

But anyhow, awesome stuff this is.

The odds for this were much better than the odds for the powerball.

What is it... like 246 to 1 on picking a period out of the entire season for a player to score? The odds for the powerball are astronomical by comparison.

You have a better chance of getting struck by lightning and hit by a meteor in the same day than winning the powerball.

 

[jagrgodr]

18 players per team, 2 teams = 36 players per game.

Average goals per game = 5.18 (this year)

Number of periods in a game = 3 (overtime obviously changes it slightly, but not important for this)

So, picking a random player, to score in a random period in any game where they score is: 5.18/36/3 = 0.0479 = 4.79%

With 15 guesses that would mean you'd have a 52% chance of being right at least once, 91% chance of being right at least once in 50 guesses.

Ah, it's for a specific player? Great,

190 gp, 5 goals, 3 periods a game = (190*30/)5 = 0.877% chance of guessing a goal in a period for Bartkowski.

In 50 guesses, a 35.6% chance to be right at least once for him. In 82 guesses, a 51.4% chance to be correct at least once.

The only reason this doesn't happen more often is people don't post specific guesses for when a player will score often. I am sure I did some math wrong but this is nowhere near winning the lottery odds or even close which would be something like a 0.0001% chance of getting at least 1 in 82 guesses correct.

redo the math. At the time the Big Rings made the prediction he had ZERO goals in about 150 games, not 5 goals in 190 games. After he made the prediction, bart scored 3 goals BEFORE this game, and on this game he scored the 2nd period goal and another 3rd period goal to give him the total of 5.

So at the time of his prediction he had played about 130-150 games with ZERO nhl goals.

 

[Protest]

18 players per team, 2 teams = 36 players per game.

Average goals per game = 5.18 (this year)

Number of periods in a game = 3 (overtime obviously changes it slightly, but not important for this)

So, picking a random player, to score in a random period in any game where they score is: 5.18/36/3 = 0.0479 = 4.79%

With 15 guesses that would mean you'd have a 52% chance of being right at least once, 91% chance of being right at least once in 50 guesses.

Ah, it's for a specific player? Great,

190 gp, 5 goals, 3 periods a game = (190*30/)5 = 0.877% chance of guessing a goal in a period for Bartkowski.

In 50 guesses, a 35.6% chance to be right at least once for him. In 82 guesses, a 51.4% chance to be correct at least once.

The only reason this doesn't happen more often is people don't post specific guesses for when a player will score often. I am sure I did some math wrong but this is nowhere near winning the lottery odds or even close which would be something like a 0.0001% chance of getting at least 1 in 82 guesses correct.

The GPG of the team he plays for would be better, but not every player has equal probability of scoring a goal. Really you should use the GPG of the player since that's a better indicator of the rate that the event of scoring a goal occurs in his specific case.

 

[Samzilla]

Meh ... broken clocks, blind squirrels, and such.

He picked a random game out of 82 and a random period out of 3. 246-1 odds, about the same as winning a church raffle.




Why yes, I am fun at parties.

Grunch. It's only 246-1 if Bartkowski is assured to score a goal in every period. In such a situation, yes, it would be like spinning a big 246 slice prize wheel and just hoping it lands on the right slice.

However, Bartkowski is not guaranteed to score which drastically changes the odds.

 

[badtakemachine]

Grunch. It's only 246-1 if Bartkowski is assured to score a goal in every period.

Correct. This guy has scored now 5 goals in about 200 games. That's 1 goal every 40 games, or 1 goal every 120 periods. Assuming this rate is accurate, correctly predicting this guy to score one goal in a given period in a season would then be 29520 to 1. Correctly predicting two goals in a single period would then be something like 3.5 million to 1.

 

[TaLoN]

Correct. This guy has scored now 5 goals in about 200 games. That's 1 goal every 40 games, or 1 goal every 120 periods. Assuming this rate is accurate, correctly predicting this guy to score one goal in a given period in a season would then be 29520 to 1. Correctly predicting two goals in a single period would then be something like 3.5 million to 1.

And only then are you just "marginally" eating into the powerball odds... just marginally as you still have a LONG way to go yet to reach that astronomical number.

 

[Reaper45]

burn the witch

Perfect, and I concur.

 

[TopShelfYzerman]

I hate to be 'that guy' but, basically he guessed, Bartkowski would score on the 25th, the Sens part doesnt matter since we all could of looked who Vancouver would play on the 25th. Bartkowski scored one in the 2nd and 3rd period so he was right about the game and period but im assuming he was trying to guess Bartkowskis 1st goal since Bartkowski hadnt scored a single goal the prior 121 games in 5 season. However, Bartkowski also scored 3 goals prior to this specific goal in this season.

 

[Dirty Dog]

There is some crazy backwards statistics appearing on every page. A stats professor could assign this thread as an exam (fix what they have screwed up type)

 

[NYI365]

Holy ****.

 

[Penguinator]

Based on your math, the odds would have been equal to predict Ovechkin scoring in a specific period of a specific game as they are for Bartkowski.
Is that correct?

No but The Oracle only guessed once anyway.