The alternative playoff format you've suggested is a different thing altogether. This isn't a "one-game coin flip vs. longer series" discussion. It's a "one-game coin flip vs. nothing" discussion.
You're arguing against something that no one is arguing for. No one has suggested that a shorter series is better. All anyone is saying is to leave it the way it is and add a couple more (highly intriguing and profitable) games if there's a tie rather than skipping those games altogether.
Again... this is a "one-game coin flip vs. nothing" discussion, so the Oakland and Pittsburgh examples aren't really relevant.
Playing those one-game play-ins means more revenue and more national interest than skipping them.
That's not a relevant comparison at all. Again... this is about a tie-breaker. Imagine NYI and TB had each gotten one more point this past season. Would you rather see a scenario where the three teams have a brief, two day play-in series (TOR vs. NYI, winner plays TB, winner goes on) or would you rather see TB move on and that's that?
I like having discussions with you about this kind of stuff because your arguments are usually well thought out and reasonable, but you have a tendency to lean too heavily on hypotheticals, which never make good arguments. For example:
Your hypothetical: Jays use Stroman on the last day of the season to win and create the elusive four-way tie-breaker. Estrada wins a one-game playoff. Happ wins a one-game playoff. Jays head to the Wild Card game having to decide between Stroman on short rest, Rowley, Biagini, etc. against the other team's ace.
Your preferred scenario: What Stroman does on the last day of the season doesn't matter because the Jays run-differential is terrible and, even if they win, they lose the tie-breaker.
The scenario you DON'T like includes do-or-die wins from Stroman, Estrada, and Happ, but you don't want to see that because of the awkward scenario of not having best-on-best in the fourth do-or-die game? That's weird.
You can't keep comparing it to the NBA and NHL. They're not remotely similar. In baseball, your best pitcher pitches in 20% of the team's games. Poor matchups are just part of the game.
What's "messy" about it? The "worst" case scenario is a crazy 5-way tie in which the playoffs are extended by three days and three or four teams that otherwise would have been eliminated get to play an exciting game that pretty much every baseball fan is interested in watching.
The same way MLB went to teams last year and asked them which spot they wanted in the potential 3 way tiebreaker for 2 spots, spot A, spot B, or spot C. A and B were to play in A's ballpark, then the winner of that got in and C hosted the loser for the 2nd spot. Tiebreaker stats decide who gets first choice. Jays took the obvious A choice and Baltimore got quite ridiculed for choosing C for 1 shot at home instead of 2 on the road. I think the 3 team was the Tigers who didn't make the tie, and it was straight Jays and O'd tied for both WC spots so not tiebreaker was necessary.
They'd have 5 spots for 5 tied teams, label them A, B, C, D, E. Go through all the tiebreaking stats to determine who has first choice, and they'd go get the teams choices in advance of the tie even happening like they did last year. The likely choices would be A hosts B for 1 spot, and D hosts E with the winner to host C for the other.
Here is the MLB link, I don't believe they have gone to the point of listing scenarios for 5 way ties but I assume they have the scenarios that they would go through in those cases.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/59527184/playoff-tiebreaker-rules/
Here's the one that could have happened last year, along with the link to the story about the choices and how they went about it
This is pretty much spot-on.
Using run differential would fundamentally change how the game is played. All of the sudden floating around for a couple innings and having a 12-2 game turn into a 12-7 game has the potential to have a dramatic impact on the season. Closer and top end reliever usage increases greatly - teams don't pull starters and continue to run/bunt etc deep into blowouts. And at the end of the day, does having a +15 higher run differential (that's less than 1 run every 10 games) really mean anything?
H2H fails to take into account pitching matchups, home field and injuries. Let's say the Jays and Seattle finish tied for the wildcard. The Jays crushed the M's 6-1 in H2H this year.
Jays SP: Estrada, Biagini x2, Stroman x2, Sanchez, Happ
Mariners SP: de Jong, Bergmann, Weber, Miranda x2, Gaviglio, Paxton
Now I'm not saying the Mariners have a good starting rotation or anything, but there's a lot of garbage there, and its not garbage that's being thrown out by Seattle every five days. Not to mention the Jays had an extra home game.
There's nothing wrong with something like this being decided by a H2H tiebreaker (which IIRC it is), as otherwise it would just be a random draw. At least every team gets a chance to earn their spot on the field though. Like, the Jays tying for a WC spot and then not having a chance to play because Matt Dermody gave up about 1100 home runs to the Orioles on a Sunday in April is rather ludicrous, isn't it?
I, for one, welcome our new chaos overlords.
I don't know how they can keep this guy on the roster
Also speaking of absolute wastemen...Kendrys Morales. Woof.
I think something like head to head or run differential would improve the quality of regular season games like it is done in international hockey and basketball play for the round robins. You will see less blow outs and more teams trying to win games and put up runs/stop the bleeding in game that are out of hand of getting out of hand. Maybe more games like Jays-Angels with Pearce's walk off GS rather than team giving 3 outs late in games so easily to "save bullets" for tomorrow.
And a 1 game tiebreak would fail to take into account the incongruity of a regular season found in an unbalanced schedule among other factors by awarding someone home field advantage. No system would be the true representation of fair so i opt for the solution that may not be that much better but allows for more rest which would/can give you best on best for the playoffs.
Lol... i hope i am wrong but i wouldnt want to see that chaos at all.
If all stadiums had roofs, there was enough travel days and rest to get best on best in the playoffs then i wouldnt be complaining about the current system but as it stands its just too condensed for my liking.
This x10, a full time DH who is putting up a wrc+ below 100 to go along with very absymal baserunning is absolutely unacceptable. I'm hoping the Jays can somehow find a taker for him this winter so they can give Steve Pearce the full time DH role.
Also, for all the pitcher injuries we see nowadays, a run differential-based tiebreak will only result in increased usage of good pitchers (especially at the relief level), which can't be a good thing.
Sorry, but there is zero way that having more rest is a better option than actually deciding it on the field. That makes zero sense.
I agree the playoff system is too condensed, but that's the nature of playoffs. We all know the playoffs are nothing but a crapshoot and really determine nothing more than who is better in October instead of determining who is the best from April to October. Alas, it is more entertaining that way.
The advantage of the system now is the six division winners get the best possible advantage for being the best during the first six months of the season (ie being able to play in an actual series and having the extra day or two of rest for your pitchers). An expansion to an eight team playoff (or elongating the WC process) only diminishes or outright removes that advantage.
You could easily convince me on a best of seven DS round + reducing the schedule to 158 games. End the season on a Wednesday, play the WC games on Thurs/Fri and then start the DS on the Saturday/Sunday. But the lost revenue for 60 playoff games probably isn't made up from the extra 4-8 playoff games you get out of that expansion so it won't happen.
I think it is a very poor argument to say "poor matchups are just part of the game" when i am offering a way to avoid for the playoffs which i think is better for the game.
It would be even better if there were 2-3 game gap between the end of the RS to the start of the WC games to ensure both team's best pitchers are rested and ready.
The MLB has a 1 day break and it isnt really a break as its a travel day sometimes for both teams.
I think you answered your own question. Its messy because it can get "crazy" as you stated.
I know my idea seems far fetched for baseball but it is a common practice in the NHL and the NBA. If Baseball had a 140 game season with four 7 series rounds already no one would blink an eye but because my suggestion is different it gets the push back because usually thats the case when change comes to baseball. I am very similar when they bring up other things i think are stupid or different than other sports; nickname jerseys, no trading draft picks, competitive balance picks, compensatory system etc.
This x10, a full time DH who is putting up a wrc+ below 100 to go along with very absymal baserunning is absolutely unacceptable. I'm hoping the Jays can somehow find a taker for him this winter so they can give Steve Pearce the full time DH role.
Having fewer teams involved by removing a bunch of exciting games that generate general interest across baseball and specific interest among multiple teams just so you can say the next round was "best on best" is a weird thing to wish for, to me.
Plus, there's a lot more to a matchup than the two starting pitchers.
That would be the worst. Why shouldn't teams with deeper rotations have an advantage heading into the playoffs? Why shouldn't teams who spend the last week of the season adjusting their starters to get their playoff rotation to line up the way they want see an advantage?
There should never be more than one day off between games.
The problem here is that you're reading "crazy" as being a bad thing. "Crazy" is literally the best part of baseball.
Most of the push-back you're getting isn't related to your "shorter season, more playoffs" option. It's about your "skip the play-in games" idea.
Sure, it's a difference of opinion, but it seems unfathomable to me that someone would rather skip two days of intense, do-or-die baseball so they can make sure Tyler Skaggs gets to start the Wild Card game against the Yankees.
A crappy team like the Angels is sitting in a wild card spot. Who's to say that if the Jays were just a little bit healthier (Let's say Donaldson does not miss any time and Sanchez is healthy and even better than last season) that they wouldn't be right there right now?
A crappy team like the Angels is sitting in a wild card spot. Who's to say that if the Jays were just a little bit healthier (Let's say Donaldson does not miss any time and Sanchez is healthy and even better than last season) that they wouldn't be right there right now?
And i disagree. No one says on opening day the best thing is i hope there is a tie at the end of the season so we can see a bunch of tiebreaking games. People want to see the playoffs and the world series. These "high pressure" tie breaker games you speak of that you think everyone wants isnt the case; i bet the causal fan doesnt even know the tiebreaker rules for these games. Its just overkill.
Or Marcus Stroman, Jose Beirros/Ervin Santana, Danny Duffy, James Paxton, Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, and Cole Hamels. But sure we can just talk Tyler Skaggs.
As you say i focus on the hypothetical that could become a reality in a few months you focus on the least desirable individual case - Tyler Skaggs to prove a point.
McGuire hit another jack as well.Jansen continues to hit. He's 12 for 23. 4 doubles which is nice. 7 BB and one SO. Obviously not sustainable but he has taken no time in adjusting to AAA so far.
McGuire hit another jack as well.
Hopefully one of these guys can break the curse
McGuire has hit the ball very well since he has come back from the DL.
This is the main crux of the disagreement, and it's where you're 100% wrong. Regardless of their knowledge of the specifics, casual fans want exciting baseball. There's nothing more exciting and meaningful than elimination games.
Wait... so your hypothetical in which a bunch of these teams that are currently separated by 3.5 or fewer games end up tied in a crazy play-in scenario qualifies as "could become reality", while mine, in which I stated the scenario that is literally in place today is cherrypicking the "least desirable individual case"? My original point was that hypotheticals are silly because you can make up anything to support any point, and the Skaggs example was intended to illustrate that.
Either way... you want more awesome pitching matchups. I want more fun games and memorable moments (which, conveniently enough, would also include more great pitching matchups, just not in "official" playoff games).
Meh.
Got any proof? Just because your opinion differs mine doesnt make me 100% wrong, dumb comment to make. Nice to know that your opinion speaks for 100% of all the fans... all around the world. Someone disagrees with you, no need to make an idiotic statement just because someone doesnt share the same viewpoint as yours.
Why would fans want to delay the most exciting baseball in playoff ball for tiebreaker games? Its an opinion of yours that isnt fact. If that were the case then you should be advocating for tie breaker games in the NFL, NBA and NHL.