Blue Jays Discussion: post-deadline, back-at-home edition

[phillipmike]

Cole and Montgomery with covid, German with a rotator cuff strain, Kluber not ready yet. Here's hoping they don't score 13 every day.

Too bad we don’t play them when Cole and Montgomery aren’t available.

 

[kb]

I'm not the only person who has noticed the Jays' wonky scoring:



Of course, I'm sure the keyboard warriors with oh so much credibility will dismiss these guys' opinions out of hand.




Yeah, who would have thought wincing in pain after swinging a bat might mess up your pitching?

How cute. An appeal to a lesser authority.

Those guys know less than us.

 

[canucksfan]

I'm not the only person who has noticed the Jays' wonky scoring:



Of course, I'm sure the keyboard warriors with oh so much credibility will dismiss these guys' opinions out of hand.




Yeah, who would have thought wincing in pain after swinging a bat might mess up your pitching?

It’s kind of ironic because those four are the definition of keyboard warriors.

 

[canucksfan]

Taijuan Walker has unfortunately fallen off.

In his last 4 starts of 15 innings;

20 ERs
7 HRs
10 BBs
12 Ks
12.00 ERA
-0.6 fWAR

His last 11 starts haven’t been good either;

56 Innings
35 ERs
9 HRs
21 BBs
52 Ks
5.63 ERA
0.1 fWAR

First 9 starts;

49 Innings
10 ERs
1 HRs
19 BBs
49 Ks
1.84 ERA
1.5 fWAR

K/BB% is identical but his good luck caught up to him.

Walker would have been nice to have at the start of the season but if he keeps it up then the Jays may not have use as our current starters are;

Fangraphs WAR;

Berrios: 2.5 fWAR
Ryu: 2.0 fWAR
Ray: 1.9 fWAR
Walker 1.6 fWAR
Matz: 1.2 fWAR
Manoah: 0.6 fWAR
Stripling: 0.1 fWAR

Baseball Reference bWAR;

Ray: 3.8 bWAR
Ryu: 2.6 bWAR (not including tonight’s start)
Berrios: 2.2 bWAR
Manoah: 1.4 bWAR
Stripling 0.7 bWAR
Matz: 0.6 bWAR
Walker: 0.6 bWAR (not including tonight’s spot)

Walker isn’t going to change from what he has been his whole career, a number four starter that struggles to stay healthy. Anyone that looks at the numbers could see he would regress.

 

[phillipmike]

I'm not the only person who has noticed the Jays' wonky scoring:



Of course, I'm sure the keyboard warriors with oh so much credibility will dismiss these guys' opinions out of hand.




Yeah, who would have thought wincing in pain after swinging a bat might mess up your pitching?

Steve Simmons: I don’t think it’s possible they get to 90 wins. They will have to play .770 baseball.

Jays are 55-49 with 58 games remaining. To get to 90 wins they need 35 wins in 58 games which is 60.3% winning percentage not 77%.

I shouldnt be that mean to Simmons because he had a lot of great things about this team but his math is wayyy off.

Without including tonight’s game Fangraphs predicts the Jays for 88 wins which could be 89 by tomorrow. They have the Jays projected to have the most wins, 3rd best run differential and the 4th best record with the remaining games in the league.

The record is only 4th because, although they say we finish the season with the same amount of wins as the Yankees in the remaining games, they predict us to have more losses because we have more games.

Yankees: 90 wins
A’s: 90 wins
Jays: 88 wins

This will come down right to the wire and a key win here or there, the Jays are in.

Edit:

Revised projections;

Yankees: 90 wins
Oakland: 89 wins
Toronto: 89 wins

 

[phillipmike]

2 of the top 4 in wRC+. 2 Top 3 in WAR (Vladdy and Semien) 3 in the top 30 if you include Bichette. Teo, Espinal, and Kirk are solid.

If Gurriel and Biggio come to life, I really like this lineup.

 

[weems]

Austin Martin's first game with the Twins organization and he commits two errors

 

[ShaneFalco]

Walker isn’t going to change from what he has been his whole career, a number four starter that struggles to stay healthy. Anyone that looks at the numbers could see he would regress.

We broke him!

 

[BlueForever75]

Steve Simmons: I don’t think it’s possible they get to 90 wins. They will have to play .770 baseball.

Jays are 55-49 with 58 games remaining. To get to 90 wins they need 35 wins in 58 games which is 60.3% winning percentage not 77%.

I shouldnt be that mean to Simmons because he had a lot of great things about this team but his math is wayyy off.

Without including tonight’s game Fangraphs predicts the Jays for 88 wins which could be 89 by tomorrow. They have the Jays projected to have the most wins, 3rd best run differential and the 4th best record with the remaining games in the league.

The record is only 4th because, although they say we finish the season with the same amount of wins as the Yankees in the remaining games, they predict us to have more losses because we have more games.

Yankees: 90 wins
A’s: 90 wins
Jays: 88 wins

This will come down right to the wire and a key win here or there, the Jays are in.

Edit:

Revised projections;

Yankees: 90 wins
Oakland: 89 wins
Toronto: 89 wins

I get everyone looking ahead, but the record will take care of itself. I know its a cliché but all the Jays need to do is stay healthy and take one game at a time. One win at a time.

Other teams will go on their runs of wins and losses. All we need to do is focus on winning series if we do that we will be in the playoff hunt. To be honest I am only worried about catching and closing ground in our division. Not worried at all about Seattle and Oakland. If we can catch teams in our division that should be the focus. Everything else will take care of itself

 

[Hoverhand]

Exactly 50% of the Jays remaining games (29 out of 58) are against teams that are under .500. 17 of those 29 games are against teams the Twins and the Orioles, who are 17 and 30 games under.

Moral of the story? I would put money on us seeing 3 AL East teams make the playoffs.

Updated (Midseason) Baseball America Jays Top 30:

1) Gabriel Moreno
2) Alek Manoah
3) Nate Pearson
4) Orelvis Martinez
5) Jordan Groshans
6) Alejandro Kirk
7) Gunnar Hoglund
8) Otto Lopez
9) Miguel Hiraldo
10) Adam Kloffenstein
11) Manuel Beltre
12) Estiven Machado
13) Victor Mesia
14) Yhoangel Aponte
15) Luis Garcia (I'm 99% sure it's Luis Garcia, I just see "Garcia" on the Tweet)
16) Sem Robberse
17) Ricky Tiedemann
18) Irv Carter
19) Kevin Smith
20) CJ Van Eyk
21) Eric Pardinho
22) Thomas Hatch
23) Chad Dallas
24) Patrick Murphy
25) Samad Taylor
26) Leo Jimenez
27) Tanner Morris?
28) Rikelbin De Castro
29) Josh Palacios
30) Will Robertson

Super-heavy flavour of IFA signees, with Mesia, Aponte, and Garcia being big "up-arrow" guys from last year's signing class. I'm kind of shocked that they have Kevin Smith at just #19.

I totally get pouring some cold water on Taylor and why they're not taking too much stock in a small sample size. His BABIP is through the roof and the Ks are still real bad but he was also Double-A Barry Bonds in the month of June. I'd definitely have him above Patrick Murphy to say the least.

 

[zeke]

 

[Hoverhand]

I think the Bryant deal makes it pretty clear that we wouldn't have had to give up Martinez or any of our elite prospects to get him.

I suppose I could be missing the point of the quote tweet.

 

[Woodman19]

Its hard to not get excited by our next wave of big time bats that are coming in some premium positions with Moreno, Martinez and Groshans.

 

[canucksfan]

One underrated aspect the current management group has done is acquire top talent through the international route.

 

[BlueForever75]

The Jays need to continue to be in the hunt for big time international players. They should be on the lookout for the next Vladdy. This is where organizations like the Yankees, Dodgers, Angels and Red Sox make their hay and remain competitive yearly. By acquiring these talents as kids they give assets to team to deal or develop into bonafide major leaguers like Vladdy has become.

The Jays still have one of the best farm systems in baseball even after this deadline. I look forward to more this coming eligible list where these players are available to sign:

The list goes further but if the Jays can get their hands on 1 or 2 of these players that should be their goal every year.

 

[djdev]

I think the Bryant deal makes it pretty clear that we wouldn't have had to give up Martinez or any of our elite prospects to get him.

I suppose I could be missing the point of the quote tweet.

i think we are still in "lets see what happens this year" mode, the only deal in which we gave up legit prospects is for barrios who has another year on his contract. i am more than happy with manoah, ryu, barrios, and ray(who we should resign) going into next year, now we can go out and focus on getting a big infield bat(3rd or ss) to make this lineup even scarier

 

[djdev]

One underrated aspect the current management group has done is acquire top talent through the international route.

i think beltre might end up pretty special too, still only 17 so time will tell, but im really excited about him.

 

[BlueForever75]

i think we are still in "lets see what happens this year" mode, the only deal in which we gave up legit prospects is for barrios who has another year on his contract. i am more than happy with manoah, ryu, barrios, and ray(who we should resign) going into next year, now we can go out and focus on getting a big infield bat(3rd or ss) to make this lineup even scarier

If the Blue Jays are serious about winning as their deadline suggests. There should be no reason not to believe that both Semien and Ray will return as Blue Jays. There also isnt any reason not to believe that they will try to fix the issue at 3rd base.

 

[weems]

Before we look to fix the issue at 3B we should be giving Kevin Smith playing time.

Pretty crazy to be giving a guy like Valera AB's over him at this point.

 

[djdev]

If the Blue Jays are serious about winning as their deadline suggests. There should be no reason not to believe that both Semien and Ray will return as Blue Jays. There also isnt any reason not to believe that they will try to fix the issue at 3rd base.

agreed

 

[weems]

Tonights lineup

Springer DH
Guerrero 1B
Semien 2B
Bichette SS
Hernandez RF
Dickerson LF
Grichuk CF
Valera 3B
McGuire C

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Tonights lineup

Springer DH
Guerrero 1B
Semien 2B
Bichette SS
Hernandez RF
Dickerson LF
Grichuk CF
Valera 3B
McGuire C

Valera again? Espinal hurt?

 

[SDig14]

The Jays need to continue to be in the hunt for big time international players. They should be on the lookout for the next Vladdy. This is where organizations like the Yankees, Dodgers, Angels and Red Sox make their hay and remain competitive yearly. By acquiring these talents as kids they give assets to team to deal or develop into bonafide major leaguers like Vladdy has become.

The Jays still have one of the best farm systems in baseball even after this deadline. I look forward to more this coming eligible list where these players are available to sign:

View attachment 459283

The list goes further but if the Jays can get their hands on 1 or 2 of these players that should be their goal every year.

I want to say all of these guys have already agreed to deals with teams, except for I believe Oscar Colas?

We have signed Manual Beltre from this class.

 

[SDig14]

Tonights lineup

Springer DH
Guerrero 1B
Semien 2B
Bichette SS
Hernandez RF
Dickerson LF
Grichuk CF
Valera 3B
McGuire C

Valera is no bueno. Get Santiago in there!

 

[MS]

Gurriel has an OPS almost 200 points higher than Grichuk over the past 2 months but Grichuk continues to get more playing time.

Also this Valera over Espinal (and Smith) thing is freaking bizarre.