Blue Jays Discussion: post-deadline, back-at-home edition

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Springer might not be gone long. He was walking off the field without favouring the foot too much and he wasn't wincing with every step. When I rolled my ankle, I couldn't put any weight on it and I was definitely wincing.



Of course it's true. Just look at all the analytics people around here thinking they're all hot shit because they can Google stats. You think the Jays front office isn't full of people like that? Basically the Jays are just like the Leafs: stats darlings but can't win when it counts.

The reality is the Jays didn't start taking off until they started doing what I'VE been saying all year (because, you know, I base my opinion on stats AND observation of game results and game footage): Springer and, for some weird reason, Valera getting timely hits when it matters instead of just when they're blowing out bad pitching, great starting pitching that is allowed to go deep into games, and a focus on using just the good relievers whenever possible...or at least every now and again. Montoya seems to be falling back on bad habits there.



I always find it funny how stats people treat stats as some objective and inarguable truth, but when the results don't line up with their narrative, their fallback argument always goes to the highly immeasurable and unverifiable notion of luck.

As a wise man once said, "in my experience, there is no such thing as luck".

There is often times a groupthink when it comes to analytics, but providing anecdotal/circumstantial proof doesn't make your argument any more objective. Bringing up your observational skills to showcase how you knew how to get Smoak out (selective recall + you didn't really explain anything of substance) or how Springer coming back would allow the team to win more games (stats explain this just fine) doesn't actually prove anything.
 
Honestly I never criticize managers. It's almost always the players.

But yanking our two aces at 90 pitches to get to our crappy bullpen is beyond the pale.

Embarrassing really.
How the f he has a job still is beyond me. Last nights game felt like we just watched our post season hopes crushed. He better be fired at the end of the year. At this point it’s best if we miss the post season so they do fire home
 
SIMMONS SAYS: Much ado about 'All or Nothing' | Toronto Sun

TOUGH FOR JAYS TO PLAY CATCH UP

For as well as the Blue Jays have played since returning home to Toronto on July 30 — winning 10-of-15 in that time — the frustration of the wild-card race is apparent with six weeks remaining in the Major League season.

The Jays have played .667 baseball since coming home heading into Saturday night’s game in Seattle and have barely made a dent in the standings.

As they’ve gone 10-5, the New York Yankees have gone 9-4. As they’ve won two-thirds of their games, the Oakland A’s have won eight of 11 — that’s .727 baseball.


Only the Red Sox, getting the freebie home games against Baltimore this weekend, have faltered considerably in that time period, going 4-9 themselves. Toronto has picked up five games on the Red Sox in a very short period of time, but in the same schedule, the Tampa Bay Rays have gone 9-3 themselves and moved into first place in the American League East.

Make no mistake, this is a wild-card race for Toronto and nothing more. They don’t play Boston anymore. They can’t catch Tampa. They play Oakland three times at the Rogers Centre and have seven games remaining with the Yankees.

The season ends with three games at home against the Yankees. But with the Yanks finishing with series against Baltimore, Cleveland, Texas and Boston, there may not be enough time for the Jays to play catch up.
 
Springer might not be gone long. He was walking off the field without favouring the foot too much and he wasn't wincing with every step. When I rolled my ankle, I couldn't put any weight on it and I was definitely wincing.



Of course it's true. Just look at all the analytics people around here thinking they're all hot shit because they can Google stats. You think the Jays front office isn't full of people like that? Basically the Jays are just like the Leafs: stats darlings but can't win when it counts.

The reality is the Jays didn't start taking off until they started doing what I'VE been saying all year (because, you know, I base my opinion on stats AND observation of game results and game footage): Springer and, for some weird reason, Valera getting timely hits when it matters instead of just when they're blowing out bad pitching, great starting pitching that is allowed to go deep into games, and a focus on using just the good relievers whenever possible...or at least every now and again. Montoya seems to be falling back on bad habits there.



I always find it funny how stats people treat stats as some objective and inarguable truth, but when the results don't line up with their narrative, their fallback argument always goes to the highly immeasurable and unverifiable notion of luck.

As a wise man once said, "in my experience, there is no such thing as luck".
What do you gain from making a bunch of stuff up and yelling it into the void?
 
I always find it funny how stats people treat stats as some objective and inarguable truth, but when the results don't line up with their narrative, their fallback argument always goes to the highly immeasurable and unverifiable notion of luck.

As a wise man once said, "in my experience, there is no such thing as luck".

:laugh:

Way to cut out the rest of my sentence where I said it wasn't luck and is probably an issue that needs to be addressed (or that Thornton simply isn't that good). How convenient that you moved the period exactly to the point where stopping makes it look like I said something you can easily stand up against. But I'm sure you wouldn't stoop to manufacturing and twisting other peoples' words to try and make yourself look better, right? Because that would be petty and self-defeating. And it would also be about as gauche as slagging people for using stats to allegedly make themselves sound authoritative and intelligent while loudly thumping your own chest about how authoritative and intelligent your own points are. But that surely can't be the case.
 
Could probably pick someone off twitter and see significant improvement. I think I'd give Schneider a shot, but I'm not tied to him. Stay away from a LaRussa or Mattingly type and I'm happy.
Just run with Schneider and re-evaluate in the offseason when there's more options.
 
:laugh:

Way to cut out the rest of my sentence where I said it wasn't luck and is probably an issue that needs to be addressed (or that Thornton simply isn't that good). How convenient that you moved the period exactly to the point where stopping makes it look like I said something you can easily stand up against. But I'm sure you wouldn't stoop to manufacturing and twisting other peoples' words to try and make yourself look better, right? Because that would be petty and self-defeating. And it would also be about as gauche as slagging people for using stats to allegedly make themselves sound authoritative and intelligent while loudly thumping your own chest about how authoritative and intelligent your own points are. But that surely can't be the case.
This guy feels like the reincarnation of that jp arencibia guy from years ago. Can’t remember his name for the life of me
 
Too bad Semien and the Jays couldn't get a long term deal done and they settled on 1 year $18 million. What a player.

Good for him, going to get money that will impact many generations of his family after him.
 
Too bad Semien and the Jays couldn't get a long term deal done and they settled on 1 year $18 million. What a player.

Good for him, going to get money that will impact many generations of his family after him.

Yup the guy is unreal. Maybe he'll give us a discount cuz he loves it here? :sarcasm:
 
It's interesting though that Shi Davidi (i think) said they did discuss a 4 year deal with Semien but couldn't get the money to work for both sides. Did we offer like 4 years and $70 million and he went for a bit more on a 1 year deal to cash in one year later?

But it speaks to the fact they wanted him for 4 years without even knowing the player yet, so can't imagine they shy away from term now that he's been a great fit. Just comes down to money.

And if they were willing to go 4 years, likely means they feel OK with Bo at SS longer term.

The eye test says Bo has been much improved defensively after a lot of those early throwing and fielding errors. Do the advanced stats back that up?
 
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It's interesting though that Shi Davidi (i think) said they did discuss a 4 year deal with Semien but couldn't get the money to work for both sides. Did we offer like 4 years and $70 million and he went for a bit more on a 1 year deal to cash in one year later?

But it speaks to the fact they wanted him for 4 years without even knowing the player yet, so can't imagine they shy away from term now that he's been a great fit. Just comes down to money.

And if they were willing to go 4 years, likely means they feel OK with Bo at SS longer term.

The eye test says Bo has been much improved defensively after a lot of those early throwing and fielding errors. Do the advanced stats back that up?

Don't quote me on this but IIRC I thought I herd the 4 year deal would have had him playing SS for us and us moving Bo to probably 2nd base, but I can find any source for that anymore.
 
If the Jays are serious about contending the next 4 years they must resign Semien to keep this lineup intact. There lineup offensively with him in it is set of at minimum for the next 4 years before contracts start getting out of hand.

Signing him and then focusing on fixing the bullpen and add to starting rotation should be the focus. Letting Semien walk would be a colossal mistake.
 
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