Blue Jays Discussion: post-deadline, back-at-home edition

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Looking back on it, it's clear they zeroed in on Springer very early and went all in on their top target. I know the front office likely has a price for most guys in their model, but they never seemed to get a deal that made sense. We were apparently late in the running for LeMahieu and Bauer but the prices likely got too high for us.

So out of all free agents or trades next year, what player will be the Springer of next year?

I don’t think they have one. Their “big free agents” are re-signing Ray and Semien. They are your priorities.

I think we have 6-7 pen guys under contract. All our starters are back except for Ray and Matz. And all your position players are back.

I assume the Jays get one of Ray or Semien to come back, if not both. If they do they don’t have much to do.

Try to re-sign Ray, if not I can see them going after Syndergaard or Gausman. Letting Ray go to net a pick and signing Gasuman who doesn’t require the loss of a pick would be great. But I assume SF throws the bank at him and he takes it.

Same goes for Semien. Try to re-sign him, if not maybe make a run at Bryant or trade for Jose Ramirez.

Pen can stay untouched IMO with Romano, Merryweather, Richards, Cimber, Borucki, Mayza and maybe Pearson. If they add, maybe they add 1-2 arms.
 
I don’t think they have one. Their “big free agents” are re-signing Ray and Semien. They are your priorities.

I think we have 6-7 pen guys under contract. All our starters are back except for Ray and Matz. And all your position players are back.

I assume the Jays get one of Ray or Semien to come back, if not both. If they do they don’t have much to do.

Try to re-sign Ray, if not I can see them going after Syndergaard or Gausman. Letting Ray go to net a pick and signing Gasuman who doesn’t require the loss of a pick would be great. But I assume SF throws the bank at him and he takes it.

Same goes for Semien. Try to re-sign him, if not maybe make a run at Bryant or trade for Jose Ramirez.

Pen can stay untouched IMO with Romano, Merryweather, Richards, Cimber, Borucki, Mayza and maybe Pearson. If they add, maybe they add 1-2 arms.

What are the odds Pearson is our 5th starter?

Ryu-Ray-Berrios-Manoah-Pearson
 
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I don’t think they have one. Their “big free agents” are re-signing Ray and Semien. They are your priorities.

I think we have 6-7 pen guys under contract. All our starters are back except for Ray and Matz. And all your position players are back.

I assume the Jays get one of Ray or Semien to come back, if not both. If they do they don’t have much to do.

Try to re-sign Ray, if not I can see them going after Syndergaard or Gausman. Letting Ray go to net a pick and signing Gasuman who doesn’t require the loss of a pick would be great. But I assume SF throws the bank at him and he takes it.

Same goes for Semien. Try to re-sign him, if not maybe make a run at Bryant or trade for Jose Ramirez.

Pen can stay untouched IMO with Romano, Merryweather, Richards, Cimber, Borucki, Mayza and maybe Pearson. If they add, maybe they add 1-2 arms.
I like Ray due to his age, the fact he's a lefty which gives us 2 in our top 4, and the fact he may be loyal to us. We should have a better chance to get a "fair" deal out of him than Gausman.

Also, outside of those 2 and Thor, there are no high impact starters that are still around 30 years old. Scherzer and Verlander are getting up there.
 
What are the odds Pearson is our 5th starter?

Ryu-Ray-Berrios-Manoah-Pearson

Probably a very very good chance he will be given a shot. The Front Office strongly believes in him and said he will get a shot at starting next year.
 
I like Ray due to his age, the fact he's a lefty which gives us 2 in our top 4, and the fact he may be loyal to us. We should have a better chance to get a "fair" deal out of him than Gausman.

Also, outside of those 2 and Thor, there are no high impact starters that are still around 30 years old. Scherzer and Verlander are getting up there.

I like Ray too. Just depends on the price. Would love to give him a Lynn type extension but he is younger so he should get more years. Just a matter of how much. Can we get him on an Eovaldi type deal at $68M over 4 or will be want a Wheeler type deal $118M over 5?

With our cheap core and to provide us with protection against Berrios leaving, I wouldn’t be against signing 2 big arms. With the trade of SWR, there are no high end arms in the system that’s ready to give you 150 innings in 2023. So why not go after another big arm while the core is still relatively cheap?

Ideally bring back Ray and maybe grab Syndergaard on a 2 year deal worth $40M. Thor has yet to throw a pitch yet this year, so he likely to get the QO which he may accept. Give him the incentive to decline to QO and give him 2 years of security to work with Walker.

Gives us a plan B if Berrios wants to walk, gives you multiple arms to protect against a Ryu or Pearson injury. Syndergaard, Pearson, and Stripling can limit each other’s innings to keep each other fresh too.

I posted this a few days ago;

2021-22 Offseason:

Re-sign both Ray and Semien. Trade Biggio, Gurriel+ for Jose Ramirez. Sign a left handed DH (Brantley would have been perfect).

Springer CF
Guerrero 1B
Ramirez 3B
Semien 2B
Bichette SS
Hernandez LF
Free Agent DH
Kirk C
Grichuk RF

Jansen, Espinal, Smith, OF

Ray
Berrios
Ryu
Manoah
Stripling

Romano
Pearson
Merryweather
Cimber
Borucki
Richards
Mayza​

This would be perfect for me. Especially if you can re-sign Semien, Ray and grab Syndergaard. The key is the “+” to get Ramirez. We know Cleveland would love Gurriel and a player like Biggio. Cheap players with multiple years of control who fit their window.

In this scenario, Ryu, and Syndergaard are free agents. Ideally, Berrios is brought back with Manoah, Pearson and Ray. Maybe Ryu signs cheap one year deals?

Ramirez can be kept or he could walk. Ideally you still have Groshans, Moreno and/or Orelvis ready to step in making peanuts. If Cavan and Gurriel are dealt for Ramirez, the only big arb guys are Bo and Vladdy. If Vladdy doesn’t want a big deal you go year to year.

Reminds me of the Cubs and Astros. Great position players on the cheap and go all out for pitching.

Cubs had Lester, Arrieta, Quintana and He sticks who they locked up. Houston had Keuchel and added Grienke and Verlander.

We have Ryu and Berrios. Would be nice to lock up Ray and say grab Syndergaard.

This team is set up perfectly imo. Hopefully Semien and Ray can be had for 4 years or less.
 
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Is Ryu even the ace anymore?

It’s not impossible they could run

Ray - Berrios - Ryu - Manoah
 
My biggest issue with trading Martin in a way was drafting him in the first place if you thought that's the kind of value he had. Value wise if you draft someone 5th overall they should have more value than that a year later. Either they sold low or they make a mistake drafting him to begin with. I think part of that stems from not being the biggest Martin fan the entire time he was in our system. I just feel like a player you draft 5th overall who who's progressing as you expected has more value than that. I don't necessarily have an issue flipping a top pick that quickly, but you need to get fair value. Which either they didn't, or they drafted poorly.

I think I just had my heart set on Veen underslot.
 
My biggest issue with trading Martin in a way was drafting him in the first place if you thought that's the kind of value he had. Value wise if you draft someone 5th overall they should have more value than that a year later. Either they sold low or they make a mistake drafting him to begin with. I think part of that stems from not being the biggest Martin fan the entire time he was in our system. I just feel like a player you draft 5th overall who who's progressing as you expected has more value than that. I don't necessarily have an issue flipping a top pick that quickly, but you need to get fair value. Which either they didn't, or they drafted poorly.

I think I just had my heart set on Veen underslot.
Welcome to the MLB draft where maybe 3 players in the entire first round ever become anything more than a AAA player.
 
Are people still complaining about trading Martin? The guy is a prospect who has yet to prove anything in the majors and hasn't really lit the minors on fire either. We got a all star #2 pitcher who fits this team and the identity of this team perfectly. I make that trade 100% of the time.
 
Is Ryu even the ace anymore?

It’s not impossible they could run

Ray - Berrios - Ryu - Manoah

He has never been a “true” ace imo but he was our ace last year and at the start of this year. Currently Ryu is 31st among all qualified starters in fWAR. To me that’s a very good #2. But based on durability, Ray and Berrios has leaped frogged him in my opinion and that’s fine. He is a fantastic number 3.

Reminds me of 2015. Dickey is the ace and in comes Price, Stroman and Estrada to leap frog him. Ray is the pitcher Walker fixed like Estrada. Manoah is the hot shot prospect like Stroman. Berrios is your big acquisition at the deadline like Price. Difference is, Ryu is much better than Dickey. So if Ryu is your 3-4, you are happy.

Scott Phillips on Overdrive said Ryu’s stuff looks flat. Says this might be the point of the season where he gets tired. Says the Jays are smart to use a 6 man rotation. Says it might be smarter to skip a Ryu start or 2 as their next 12 games are against the Angels, Mariners (these might be home games), Washington and Detroit. Let Ryu ramp back up in late August.

Jays have an incredibly easy August, they need to go on a tear, maybe .700 baseball.

4 vs LAA
3 vs SEA
2 vs WAS
3 vs DET
4 vs CWS
3 vs DET
3 vs BAL

3 vs Oakland

I see no reason why we can’t win every series here and at least split vs Chicago. That’s a minimum of 14 wins, possibly closer to 15 or 16. 16- 6 is .727 baseball heading into September vs Oakland. I believe that’s 76 wins with 30 games remaining; good enough for 91 wins if we go 15-15 in the last 30. If they do a little better, especially games vs Tampa, we are challenging for the division.

How they do in these next 22 games will tell us if we are challenging for the WC or the division.
 
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He has never been a “true” ace imo but he was our ace last year and at the start of this year. Currently Ryu is 31st among all qualified starters in fWAR. To me that’s a very good #2. But based on durability, Ray and Berrios has leaped frogged him in my opinion and that’s fine. He is a fantastic number 3.

Reminds me of 2015. Dickey is the ace and in comes Price, Stroman and Estrada to leap frog him. Ray is the pitcher Walker fixed like Estrada. Manoah is the hot shot prospect like Stroman. Berrios is your big acquisition at the deadline like Price. Difference is, Ryu is much better than Dickey. So if Ryu is your 3-4, you are happy.

Scott Phillips on Overdrive said Ryu’s stuff looks flat. Says this might be the point of the season where he gets tired. Says the Jays are smart to use a 6 man rotation. Says it might be smarter to skip a Ryu start or 2 as their next 12 games are against the Angels, Mariners (these might be home games), Washington and Detroit (might also be home games). Let Ryu ramp back up in late August.

Not sure border regulations allow for Canadians to go en masse to Seattle and Detroit to make a "home" game.
 
Not sure border regulations allow for Canadians to go en masse to Seattle and Detroit to make a "home" game.

You are right, the border is closed until at least August 21st but I believe you can still fly. That being said, very unlikely as you say.

And sorry, the Detroit games are in Toronto.
 
Boston showing signs of fading. Springer taking off and bringing that missing clutch element to the offense, and a starting staff pitching so well we don't even need to use the bullpen. This might actually happen. Not the division, but a wild card spot seems possible.

Are people still complaining about trading Martin? The guy is a prospect who has yet to prove anything in the majors and hasn't really lit the minors on fire either. We got a all star #2 pitcher who fits this team and the identity of this team perfectly. I make that trade 100% of the time.

To be fair, he only has half a season of pro ball under his belt, so it's way too early to judge. But it turns out his arm was actually too weak for the outfield, and with Lopez putting up big numbers at every level and all the other great looking infielders behind him, we could definitely afford to trade him to address a major weakness. SWR was the much bigger loss in that trade, but oh well. Looks like he was a few years away anyway.
 
Hoping for the Royals to beat the Yankees is like hoping for the Red Wings to beat the Bruins. They might keep it close for two periods but in the end…ugh.
 
Are people still complaining about trading Martin? The guy is a prospect who has yet to prove anything in the majors and hasn't really lit the minors on fire either. We got a all star #2 pitcher who fits this team and the identity of this team perfectly. I make that trade 100% of the time.

I haven’t actually watched Martin but from what I’ve seen and read around here and other places is the arm wasn’t elite (I can’t confirm this just what I’ve read) and the power isn’t there. Obviously super high batting average and OBP and maybe ends up at 2B, sort of has him looking like Ketel Marte. That would be pretty good for Minnesota and if that’s the case I would still do it for Berrios. Some trades can be win-win but I’m not losing any sleep over it.
 
I haven’t actually watched Martin but from what I’ve seen and read around here and other places is the arm wasn’t elite (I can’t confirm this just what I’ve read) and the power isn’t there. Obviously super high batting average and OBP and maybe ends up at 2B, sort of has him looking like Ketel Marte. That would be pretty good for Minnesota and if that’s the case I would still do it for Berrios. Some trades can be win-win but I’m not losing any sleep over it.

The way some evaluators have been talking about him since the trade makes him sound like Frank Catalanotto - above average offensively based on a high OBP, but his upside is somewhat capped by a lack of power and a defensive profile that limits him to 2B/LF. I'm not sure I agree with that - I still think it's a bit of an overreaction to project a lack of power based on his first 50-ish games out of college - but I also haven't watched him, and they guys saying that stuff about him have.
 
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Keith Law answered some questions about Jays prospects:
  • Appa Yip Yip: What’s up with Kevin Smith (of the Blue Jays, not Silent Bob)?
  • Keith Law: Now that is a swing change guy. Different player than he was pre-COVID (or at Maryland, for that matter). He’s gone from a 3 (nothing) to a 5 (everyday player).
  • Fitzy: Is Austin Martin still a top 100 prospect in your view? I believe a lot of my fellow Jays fans were too hung up on his pre-season ranking and believe we got absolutely fleeced for Berrios.
  • Keith Law: He was on the top 50 linked at the top of this post.
  • Jonesy: Should the Jays be doing everything in their power to extend Semien and Ray right now?
  • Keith Law: No. It all comes down to cost.
  • John: Are you a believer in Samad Taylor? The power has kind of come out of nowhere.
  • Keith Law: He’s a real prospect. Possible regular.
  • Jason: The Jays obviously soured on Austin Martin. Do you think the trade also speaks to them thinking highly of Groshans and how do you feel about Groshans future?
  • Keith Law: I don’t have great reports from this year on Groshans.
 
Obviously we all give Keith Law a hard time and for good reason lol. That being said, thank god somebody in the media is speaking our Kevin Smith frustrations into existence.
 
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The way some evaluators have been talking about him since the trade makes him sound like Frank Catalanotto - above average offensively based on a high OBP, but his upside is somewhat capped by a lack of power and a defensive profile that limits him to 2B/LF. I'm not sure I agree with that - I still think it's a bit of an overreaction to project a lack of power based on his first 50-ish games out of college - but I also haven't watched him, and they guys saying that stuff about him have.
That sounds like a lesser proven Biggio
 
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