Please Grade Dubas on today's Free Agent Pickups.

[ACC1224]

How was it determined that the Leafs have spent approx. $6M less, when Cap Friendly indicates there is zero cap space?

So much discussion on something so meaningless.

 

[Eb]

Maybe it's a matter of terminology. I was looking at the picture, call it chart, model or whatever else. So Dom calculated the improvement, that's all that seems relevant to me anyway. But isn't Dom also the guy who decided to include salary to the chart (which seems to be flawed thinking)? If so, then that's on him.

Whatever the case, I think we agree that salary is irrelevant here. If a team spent less efficiently that doesn't help us if they had more cap space to spend so who cares. Bottom line is that we're9th in improvement (if you believe the model is accurate) and nobody seems to know what a score of 1 on a scale of 1-5 means so it's all just noise anyway IMHO.

Looking at salary added is important, though.

Vancouver's situation is just unique, which Zeke highlighted and for whatever reason you jumped on that to try and discredit the model, which isn't even a model.

Again, if you have issue with the thinking that Vancouver actually improved with their offseason moves, that's a completely different conversation and one where you can look into discrediting the model.

 

[Sypher04]

This whole chart is laughable, cmon. The leafs are way worse than they were last year, lost Hyman, bogosian, andersson, Galchenyuk, Thornton. Their biggest issue is keeping the puck out of their net and now they are going with two mediocre goalies.

I'm sorry, but this post and calling the Leafs way way worse is what's laughable.

The only player of any significance that is gone is Hyman and he's massively overrated, much as I like the player.

Andersen has been utter trash in the regular season for at least 18 months at this point. At least Mrazek has been good when he's played. If we were letting go of Andersen playing like he did 3-5 years ago, I'd be with you, but as this team has improved and learned to defend Andersen's play has consistently declined

Thornton was awful and way overplayed

While Galchenyuk played pretty well, he only produced at a kinda mediocre level for the minutes and opportunity he received

Bogosian is a bit of a loss. Solid depth D that we haven't exactly replaced as of yet, but without him last year we only lost 1 of 11 games in regulation. So let's not overblow things. His pk minutes will need to be covered though

Hyman is the biggest loss but the cap Edmonton paid him is absolutely ridiculous. For essentially that same money we signed Kampf, Ritchie, Kase AND Bunting. I'll happily take the field. Nothing Hyman did was unique, or special and he is very replaceable. Our best players don't miss a beat when hes removed from their wing which really destroys the narrative that they need Hyman there to get them pucks

Also the Leafs were the 7th best team in the entire league in goals against last year despite some atrocious goaltending at times. They have made huge strides becoming a good defending team

 

[Gary Nylund]

Looking at salary added is important, though.

Vancouver's situation is just unique, which Zeke highlighted and for whatever reason you jumped on that to try and discredit the model, which isn't even a model.

Again, if you have issue with the thinking that Vancouver actually improved with their offseason moves, that's a completely different conversation and one where you can look into discrediting the model.

Why is looking at salary added important?

Chart, model, call that picture what you like, I really don't care?

And honestly, who cares about Vancouver?

 

[Bluelines]

i personally consider a players 'peak' 26-28 years of age, except for 'star' players, so, getting a guy at 25 would be just before breakout, but, these are all short term deals, so, if they do breakout, all they become is decent trade chips, or too expensive to resign.
to gamble and win, you need to sign the 25 year old, on the verge of a breakout to a long term deal on the cheap.
i.e. if Bunting was signed for 5+ years at his cap hit, then he'd be a steal if he improved, while still manageable if he doesnt.

Makes sense, I'd like to see Dubas sign a few 3 years deals to keep them around longer, but my guess is he is hedging his bets that if he needs a 1 year contract next year, there will be guys like Bunting avail.

 

[Bluelines]

This whole chart is laughable, cmon. The leafs are way worse than they were last year, lost Hyman, bogosian, andersson, Galchenyuk, Thornton. Their biggest issue is keeping the puck out of their net and now they are going with two mediocre goalies.

Is it statically possible to have 20 teams with less wins than last year and 10 teams with more wins than last year? Intuitively that feels like it is mathematically not possible. Maybe it is, just does not feel right to me.

 

[Racer88]

The quickest way to make this team better is sign the right coach

 

[egd27]

So much discussion on something so meaningless.

part of my quest to understand what the dubites are talking about

 

[ACC1224]

part of my quest to understand what the dubites are talking about

I have no interest in that rabbit hole. Good luck.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Did well with what he had.

D is largely the same, if not better if they can get some internal growth from Sandin/Dermott/Liljegren - like not going out and changing it given how good the defensive results were this past year.

G is better if Mrazek is better than Andersen for the past two seasons - which is quite likely given how bad Fred has been unfortunately. Hopefully he bounces back in Carolina but i'm more comfortable with the Mrazek bet myself.

Forwards are slightly worse - but there are some interesting bets and opportunity to add at the deadline as well. Not one signing replaces Hyman - they just need the group of guys they brought in to make up part of what Hyman brought and bring more than the Vesey/Thornton/Barabanov types did.

Realistically they're hoping for one of Ritchie/Bunting/Kase/Robertson to complement the top six at the least in some way - and then they can add a forward at the deadline if needed (and if more of those 4 work out, then fantastic). Like the approach a lot given how the team is situated - goal now needs to be to fix the PP tactics.

 

[ULF_55]

I suppose it is.
The fact remains though, it's likely that less than half (if you are optimistic) of all these new signings are going to "hit".
Let's hope it's the right guys.

I don't think the signings have to hit.

Bunting to me is the wild card, but he can be buried.
Kase if healthy is NHL if not healthy is LTIR.
Ritchie is Ritchie, I'm not counting a 2.5mm player to be a top 6 player.
Kampf is the key signing for me. If he continues to be the player he was on the Hawks for the past 3 years it gives a backbone/structure to a 3rd. line.

 

[Sypher04]

I don't think the signings have to hit.

Bunting to me is the wild card, but he can be buried.
Kase if healthy is NHL if not healthy is LTIR.
Ritchie is Ritchie, I'm not counting a 2.5mm player to be a top 6 player.
Kampf is the key signing for me. If he continues to be the player he was on the Hawks for the past 3 years it gives a backbone/structure to a 3rd. line.

I see Kampf as the center of a 4th line shutdown line, not 3rd. Personally.

 

[ToneDog]

Did well with what he had.

D is largely the same, if not better if they can get some internal growth from Sandin/Dermott/Liljegren - like not going out and changing it given how good the defensive results were this past year.

G is better if Mrazek is better than Andersen for the past two seasons - which is quite likely given how bad Fred has been unfortunately. Hopefully he bounces back in Carolina but i'm more comfortable with the Mrazek bet myself.

Forwards are slightly worse - but there are some interesting bets and opportunity to add at the deadline as well. Not one signing replaces Hyman - they just need the group of guys they brought in to make up part of what Hyman brought and bring more than the Vesey/Thornton/Barabanov types did.

Realistically they're hoping for one of Ritchie/Bunting/Kase/Robertson to complement the top six at the least in some way - and then they can add a forward at the deadline if needed (and if more of those 4 work out, then fantastic). Like the approach a lot given how the team is situated - goal now needs to be to fix the PP tactics.

Canes choosing Andy @ $4.5m over Mrazek @ $3.8m tells me what the Canes think of Mrazek. We walked away from Andy because we could not or did not want to pay him $4.5m but Andy has had issues for the last year and a half so I am cautiously optimistic about Mrazek.

 

[Sypher04]

Canes choosing Andy @ $4.5m over Mrazek @ $3.8m tells me what the Canes think of Mrazek. We walked away from Andy because we could not or did not want to pay him $4.5m but Andy has had issues for the last year and a half so I am cautiously optimistic about Mrazek.

I think Andersen is still getting by on reputation and has proven to be able to play a big number of games, even if the quality of them has gone down. Only rationale that tracks for me

 

[Menzinger]

I see Kampf as the center of a 4th line shutdown line, not 3rd. Personally.

The bottom two lines likely will end up getting split into one that gets more offensive usage (Spezza's line) and then one getting more defensive starts (Kampf).

I see Kampf getting around 14-15ish min a night which if one wants to get technical is more 3rd line territory than 4th line.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Hyman is the biggest loss but the cap Edmonton paid him is absolutely ridiculous. For essentially that same money we signed Kampf, Ritchie, Kase AND Bunting. I'll happily take the field. Nothing Hyman did was unique, or special and he is very replaceable. Our best players don't miss a beat when hes removed from their wing which really destroys the narrative that they need Hyman there to get them pucks

I agree with that take on Hyman. If you can put Alex Galchenyuk on the line and still be productive to an extent...its not the 3rd wheel that matters a whole lot. I think people will be very surprised when Bunting or Ritchie score at higher rates than they are being penciled in for.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

I think Andersen is still getting by on reputation and has proven to be able to play a big number of games, even if the quality of them has gone down. Only rationale that tracks for me

Goalies are also pretty voodoo. I think that sort of speaks to the issue here too - you're taking a risk on either guy. Taking the guy who is cheaper on the AAV side - and has more recently had some success (while also shaking up the dressing room a bit with the core guys) is the right call IMO.

 

[egd27]

I think Andersen is still getting by on reputation and has proven to be able to play a big number of games, even if the quality of them has gone down. Only rationale that tracks for me

perhaps, but the GM’s overall track record with goalie evaluation has not been great.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

perhaps, but the GM’s overall track record with goalie evaluation has not been great.

Enroth is bad and didn't work for them - he got Mcbackup who ended up being good.

Then he picked Sparks over Mcbackup which ended up being a bad move - but I think most people thought it was reasonable given Spark's AHL success.

Once Sparks was bad he went out and got Campbell - who has been great.

There have been some issues obviously but I'd say his overall track record is "make a bet, and when it doesn't work - correct it"

 

[nuck]

I see Kampf as the center of a 4th line shutdown line, not 3rd. Personally.

Yes he doesn't have near the offense for a 3rd line role. Other clubs could just ignore him and check his wingers and the line gets strangled. My guess is he gets under 10:00 ES unless they want to try him as a shadow from time to time against a specific player. I don't think he's a 1 goal player but getting 5 or 6g out of the #3 hole seems like it will lose the club some games.

 

[Menzinger]

Yes he doesn't have near the offense for a 3rd line role. Other clubs could just ignore him and check his wingers and the line gets strangled. My guess is he gets under 10:00 ES unless they want to try him as a shadow from time to time against a specific player. I don't think he's a 1 goal player but getting 5 or 6g out of the #3 hole seems like it will lose the club some games.

He was getting about 14.5 min a game in Chicago as reference which obviously includes special teams too

 

[egd27]

Enroth is bad and didn't work for them - he got Mcbackup who ended up being good.

Then he picked Sparks over Mcbackup which ended up being a bad move - but I think most people thought it was reasonable given Spark's AHL success.

Once Sparks was bad he went out and got Campbell - who has been great.

There have been some issues obviously but I'd say his overall track record is "make a bet, and when it doesn't work - correct it"

I may be wrong but I think the other guy got McIlhaney.

there have been more than just Campbell as Dubas’ goalie acquisitions

 

[BertCorbeau]

I may be wrong but I think the other guy got McIlhaney.

there have been more than just Campbell as Dubas’ goalie acquisitions

This is right. Lou signed Enroth and ended up being a massive flop before being able to scoop McBackup on waivers

Also Dubas brought in Dell last year who got picked up on waivers.

IIRC the year they let McBackup go I swear they signed or gave a PTO to another goalie who was to compete or be the backup but he ended up going another route in training camp for personal reasons

 

[sparxx87]

Enroth is bad and didn't work for them - he got Mcbackup who ended up being good.

Then he picked Sparks over Mcbackup which ended up being a bad move - but I think most people thought it was reasonable given Spark's AHL success.

Once Sparks was bad he went out and got Campbell - who has been great.

There have been some issues obviously but I'd say his overall track record is "make a bet, and when it doesn't work - correct it"

He got Campbell a year later. During which time they didn’t have a serviceable second goalie and ended up overplaying their starter who then went on to have injury issues. Hmmm.

Hes made some very bad bets that can’t easily be corrected, and he’s running out of time with Auston Matthews. He either walks for nothing (NMC in final year) or signs another bar raising contract in 3 years.

Tick-tock.

 

[sparxx87]

Hypothetically, if Campbell outplays Mrazek and earns more money on his next contract, are they going to keep Mrazek as the backup at that salary?

Or does Campbell move on as a free agent and they sign a backup next year? I think he’ll likely want a raise on his $1.6M AAV.