Playoffs or High Draft Pick?

[The Winter Soldier]

going by your logic we already have our piece in Rielly. LA only used Doughty from your list.

Pittsburgh was an extreme case, they bottomed for years and lucky for them had a lockout in between and end up with a generational player.

I'm sorry but no team usually ends up like Pitty, bottoming for 5 years, getting amazing players EVERY single year(literally three all-star worthy centres and an above average goalie). Just saying I'd much rather have Jordan Staal, Crosby and Malkin(all big, two-way centres/a generational talent) than RNH, Hall+Yakupov(a powerforward, skinny #1 C and a one-dimensional offensive small guy)

Chicago was also crap for years before hitting it big with Toews and Kane(Which was from the lottery.)


Bottoming out is a decent idea, but not a necessary one in the NHL, in the NBA yes, 100%. I think a high pick is needed for one or two years(i.E Rielly, Schenn and Kadri) to get a big piece, but I dont think bottoming for 3-4 years or more is needed.

But really, look at NYI, Columbus etc. they've been crap for along time, havent gone anywhere.

The one difference between NYI and COL from these other Orgs, is they had bad GM's running their teams. The only way you get Franchise players is by drafting them. No team is going to trade you Toews, Malkin, or Doughty, btw Schenn was used as a chip to get a key piece in Richards. You don't have that pick, and you don't get Richards. You think Philly does that trade for Kadri?

You bottom out and use a hybrid approach. I would say Burke is a good enough hockey man to use picks, trades and signing of UFA's to get to the contending stage. Look at ANA, his key pick ups were UFA Neidermayer and a trade for Pronger.

Beats the logic of chasing a mirage and picking 10-15. You see the roster, same roster or worse than last year. Realistically you foresee playoffs? Or are you on the hope campaign of chasing a mirage. JVR is the only significant change, not realistic.

 

[rimshot]

Everyone in the top 14 has a shot at the #1 pick.

But not the #2 pick.If Leafs finish last they are guaranteed either Jones or McKinnon. I would rather make the p-offs but failing that, we would still get a high pick if we finish bottom five.. ie. one of the top six.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Recent cup winners to bottom out and win the cup.

PITT, CHI, LA,

Bottoming out allowed them to pick high and nab key pieces to Cup champions.

Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Kane, Doughty, Schenn(to pick up Richards)

The only recent aberration was BOS, but they got lucky with UFA's Thomas and Chara.

So what I am saying Leafs fans, is we are half way there, we got Rielly last year, we tank this year we walk away with Seth Jones. Couple that with a UFA signing of Chara proportions and unloading of bad contracts, losing players and winning is not so far off.


Bottoming out has worked, as has UFA signings. Burke could use a hybrid approach. But one thing that would be disastrous, is we keep finishing in no man's land chasing a mirage. Where we pick 15th as opposed to 5 or lower.

How did that work for Columbus, Atlanta and Florida?

Also L.A only really bottomed out for two years in 08 and 09 But when you look at their team.


Kopitar 11th overall 2005
Brown 13th in 2003
Quick 72nd 2005

Then a whole bunch of guys that came via trades(Carter,Williams,Stoll etc..)

Chicago even, 2006 then they got lucky and won the lottery in 2007, But again.

Keith 54th in 2002
Seabrook 15th in 2003
Byfuglien 245th in 2003

Sharp, Versteeg, Ladd via trade.

Morale of the story is draft smart, Not always high.

 

[Bomber0104]

going by your logic we already have our piece in Rielly. LA only used Doughty from your list.

Our entire franchise's direction should go by a hunch that you think Rielly can be like Doughty?

Doughty plays a good amount of defence.

Rielly is very weak in that department.

This is why it's better to over-compensate on drafted talent...

Makes for currency later or if all goes as hoped for...keep for yourself.

 

[Bomber0104]

Morale of the story is draft smart, Not always high.

Oh no doubt about it...there can be no question.

Just that drafting smart in later rounds is very hard to do.

Basically guess work...hunches.

A great little thread in the By The Numbers section of our great forum here at HFboards has a good study of drafting outcomes.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1298875

Here's one snippet of summarized information:

Probability by 5 pick "blocks"

Block|Avg %|
1 to 5|84
6 to 10|42
11 to 15|42
16 to 20|30
21 to 25|36
26 to 30|24

This is the probability of finding a top-six forward or top-4 d-man per draft selection..

As you might tell, you can see the kinds of opportunities the Leafs have been throwing away over the many years...

The drop-off is quite profound from 1-5 to 6-10....hence the priority on picking in the top 5 "lottery" position.

You almost never see these picks traded (except by Brian Burke )

 

[4evaBlue]

The one difference between NYI and COL from these other Orgs, is they had bad GM's running their teams. The only way you get Franchise players is by drafting them. No team is going to trade you Toews, Malkin, or Doughty, btw Schenn was used as a chip to get a key piece in Richards. You don't have that pick, and you don't get Richards. You think Philly does that trade for Kadri?

You bottom out and use a hybrid approach. I would say Burke is a good enough hockey man to use picks, trades and signing of UFA's to get to the contending stage. Look at ANA, his key pick ups were UFA Neidermayer and a trade for Pronger.

Beats the logic of chasing a mirage and picking 10-15. You see the roster, same roster or worse than last year. Realistically you foresee playoffs? Or are you on the hope campaign of chasing a mirage. JVR is the only significant change, not realistic.

Carlyle is by far the most significant change since last season, and is, IMO, the biggest wildcard of this season's success.

Realistically, we should all know by now that Burke will not bottom out unpurpose. If our goaltending craps the bed again and/or having significant injuries at key times (Lupul) results in us ending up with someone like Jones, I don't think most would complain much.

 

[Kurtz]

Some of the recent picks in the organization include:

JVR #2 overall
Kessel #5
Kadri #7
Rielly #5
Phaneuf #9 (I think)


Outside of Edmonton, how many other teams in the league have this many young players taken that high in recent years?

We've done all of the tanking that we need to. At this point we have too much talent to get a realistic shot at the top #3, and we're a Luongo away from being as good, on paper, as Jersey was last year (albeit with less experience). To talk of tanking is silly.

 

[ConnorTO]

playoffs, you know cause am actually a fan and enjoy seeing the team win

am not that bandwagon fan who flips on the tv when the leafs are holding the stanley cup

yeah i know plenty of people here are those kind of people
all they do is *****, moan... cry
your not fans at all

 

[The Winter Soldier]

How did that work for Columbus, Atlanta and Florida?

Also L.A only really bottomed out for two years in 08 and 09 But when you look at their team.


Kopitar 11th overall 2005
Brown 13th in 2003
Quick 72nd 2005

Then a whole bunch of guys that came via trades(Carter,Williams,Stoll etc..)

Chicago even, 2006 then they got lucky and won the lottery in 2007, But again.

Keith 54th in 2002
Seabrook 15th in 2003
Byfuglien 245th in 2003

Sharp, Versteeg, Ladd via trade.

Morale of the story is draft smart, Not always high.

Well just to use one example, Columbus really only bottomed out with Nash and Zherdev, as I mentioned they had a bad GM, anyone else other than Zherdev in the 03 Draft, and they might have turned the corner. Their next top 5 pick was only 2010, Johansen, too early to tell, but they missed Taylor or Tyler.

The only way you obtain franchise players today, is by drafting them. Sure you can play the longshot approach and draft Perry and Getzlaf in 19 and 29th, but what are the chances of that happening? You have a much better shot at landing a franchise player with a high pick, considering it is a draft as strong as this one, it's illogical in chasing the playoffs for a team that isn't winning the cup this year, nor a team with the virtually the same basic roster as the last 4 years to make it.

Bottom out one more year, draft a franchise player and with the new CBA, with lots of capspace next year, make a true paradigm shift rather than being scuked into a roundabout whirlpool the Leafs franchise has been in.

 

[Anthrax442]

If we make a playoff berth, we will likely get knocked out in the first two starting rounds (Just a reasonable fan here). Our chances of making the playoffs are better than last year because of the shortened season. On the other half, if the leafs crap the bed, will you guys be dissapointed? We'll get a good draft pick but a lot of us just want to see a playoff game with the leafs in it. I just hope we don't finish 9th or 10th.

If they can be 3rd worse, then pick. Otherwise, playoffs!

 

[The Blue Devil]

Worked for Edmonton.

Justin Schultz v2

Prospect looking to get a good amount of playing time vs star forward looking to win.

I wonder what the difference could be...

 

[Leaf Rocket]

Playoffs, hands down.

I love the idea of getting a good prospect but that's what they are prospects. The stars that will hit the Free Agency won't want to sign with a crap team.

 

[Bomber0104]

playoffs, you know cause am actually a fan and enjoy seeing the team win

am not that bandwagon fan who flips on the tv when the leafs are holding the stanley cup

yeah i know plenty of people here are those kind of people
all they do is *****, moan... cry
your not fans at all

So I suppose you think people who want great players to be added to the team with high draft picks have the worst of intentions for the team as a whole?

People who want to see the #1 center position, #1 dman position, etc. are a bunch of non-fans?

I guess you must hate the fact that some people were happy with drafting Morgan Rielly and wanted prospects like him this entire time?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Carlyle is by far the most significant change since last season, and is, IMO, the biggest wildcard of this season's success.

Realistically, we should all know by now that Burke will not bottom out unpurpose. If our goaltending craps the bed again and/or having significant injuries at key times (Lupul) results in us ending up with someone like Jones, I don't think most would complain much.

I don't know what Randy can do, I am not sure these players will play a system where D is first, you have to have a certain mindset to play like Phoenix does, like LA does. Not sure these players have it in them.

It's hard to look past this D also, other than Dion, it's a mess. We don't have a goalie or the large bodies to play as Boston does.

As I said earlier, to me this team is more like a collection of players, where we should be a team where players fit.

Getting a Jones/Mac/Drouin to add to a Rielly would be a game changer, add that to capspace and 1 or 2 Chara like UFA's and this team will be far better than the one that resembles a team this year.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Oh no doubt about it...there can be no question.

Just that drafting smart in later rounds is very hard to do.

Basically guess work...hunches.

A great little thread in the By The Numbers section of our great forum here at HFboards has a good study of drafting outcomes.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1298875

Here's one snippet of summarized information:

Probability by 5 pick "blocks"

Block|Avg %|
1 to 5|84
6 to 10|42
11 to 15|42
16 to 20|30
21 to 25|36
26 to 30|24

This is the probability of finding a top-six forward or top-4 d-man per draft selection..

As you might tell, you can see the kinds of opportunities the Leafs have been throwing away over the many years...

Basically you're telling me the higher up we draft the better chance we have of getting a good player.

Earth shattering stuff right there...

The situation the Leafs are in IMO we stand much better chance of moving this team forward by trying to improve our as we go rather write seasons off and bottom out.

Nathan Mackinnon(for examples sake) is going to be a very good player. But there are problems on the Leafs that extent past the capabilities of one player.


Does Nathan Mackinnon stop pucks? No.

Will Nathan Mackinnon make this team kill penalties better? No.

Does Nathan Mackinnon make this team more likely to defend a lead going into the 3rd? No.

Does the loosing possibly required get a top #5 pick make Toronto a more desirable place to play? Not really, In fact I'll say no to that as well.

There's a unique opportunity coming this summer and possibly next as well where for the first time in about 2 or 3 seasons we're going to be on a level playing field to sign players in the off season. I think pissing that away by bottoming out would be foolish.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Playoffs, hands down.

I love the idea of getting a good prospect but that's what they are prospects. The stars that will hit the Free Agency won't want to sign with a crap team.

Many High drafted prospects drafted the past decade have turned into franchise players. How do we obtain a franchise player, franchise players don't get traded everyday, and I know Doug Riseborough isn't a GM anymore.

That's a Gilmour reference incase those don't remember.

 

[TheBigThree]

Playoffs, sick of losing plus want a longer hockey fix this year

 

[charliolemieux]

Some great arguments on this last page but lets get real.


It's half a season.

48 games of misery grab Mac and start our march to glory.

We have been so bad. We have so many of the right pieces in place. We need an elite goalie to just contend for a playoff spot. Without a solid #1 we will never win.

Take this shortened season to get that #1C.

WE will have years of playoffs ahead of us with this team. Let's endure one more painful year to get the final piece of the championship puzzle. The goalie will come next year. We need to get the #1C this draft.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Basically you're telling me the higher up we draft the better chance we have of getting a good player.

Earth shattering stuff right there...

The situation the Leafs are in IMO we stand much better chance of moving this team forward by trying to improve our as we go rather write seasons off and bottom out.

Nathan Mackinnon(for examples sake) is going to be a very good player. But there are problems on the Leafs that extent past the capabilities of one player.


Does Nathan Mackinnon stop pucks? No.

Will Nathan Mackinnon make this team kill penalties better? No.

Does Nathan Mackinnon make this team more likely to defend a lead going into the 3rd? No.

Does the loosing possibly required get a top #5 pick make Toronto a more desirable place to play? Not really, In fact I'll say no to that as well.

There's a unique opportunity coming this summer and possibly next as well where for the first time in about 2 or 3 seasons we're going to be on a level playing field to sign players in the off season. I think pissing that away by bottoming out would be foolish.

Not sure what you are saying here, but it almost looks like you are implying Nathan Macinnon is a bag of pucks or it sure looks like that.

Tyler Seguin was a Nathan Mackinnon once, maybe not even. Bet you wouldn't mind him on the Leafs this season.

 

[rdawg1234]

Bottom out one more year, draft a franchise player and with the new CBA, with lots of capspace next year, make a true paradigm shift rather than being scuked into a roundabout whirlpool the Leafs franchise has been in.

But how low can this team REALLY go? especially in a shortened season? if we come out hot, they aren't going to just start losing all their games.

I'd get the idea if we were say Columbus(who needs help on all ends) or Edmonton(who badly needs another big D-man prospect, goalie and bottom 6 guys although they could just trade say yakupov to get one) but we arent like these guys.

We have a 30 goal scorer in Kesse(#5 overall)l, a #2 overall pick in JVR(who could easily breakout with the extra 3-4 minutes a night in toronto), a future defensive core of Gardiner(mid-first rounder), Phaneuf(#6 overall) and Rielly(#5 overall).

People that want to bottom out keep acting like we're a bottom team. When really, if Reimer goes back to normal(concussion free), we're most likely an 8th-10th pick team, and if we get Luongo, we're almost definitely in the playoffs.

an 8th-10th pick will not help us that much, those guys can takes years to develop if they even end up the way we want them too. A franchise #1 C will only be in the top 3-5(most likely, there's obviously exceptions.)

EDIT: This is without recognizing that we've gotten a totally different coach with an entirely new system. No longer do we play run and gun leaving the goalie out to dry, we play much more of a defensive system now and shouldn't be giving up nearly as many goals(obviously this can mean less scoring as well.)

 

[charliolemieux]

Playoffs, hands down.

I love the idea of getting a good prospect but that's what they are prospects. The stars that will hit the Free Agency won't want to sign with a crap team.

If we sign MacKinnon they will come.

One of those nights LR. Poe-eece.

 

[Schenn]

The whole point of a high draft pick is to help us make the playoffs soon. I'd rather just be in the playoffs.

 

[DoubleDose86]

I don't cheer to lose..I'm cheering the Leafs to win. But if we end up with a high draft pick I won't mind so much. Still would prefer the Playoffs though.

 

[-DeMo-]

people talk like Playoffs are some sort of goal but there not. yes I realize you need to make the playoffs to win the cup but playoffs are not the goal. most people don't understand that because of this franchises inability to put out a quality product on the ice and have missed the playoffs so often that making the playoffs would be seen as a win but it not. The goal is to win the cup and as of right now I only see 1-2 pieces of a core that could actually contend for said cup. therefore it would be much easier to add another piece by picking in the top 5 of this years draft. and since there's basically 0% chance we win the cup this year it would be more beneficial to bottom out and get a chance to draft an elite prospect.

 

[charliolemieux]

But how low can this team REALLY go? especially in a shortened season? if we come out hot, they aren't going to just start losing all their games.

I'd get the idea if we were say Columbus(who needs help on all ends) or Edmonton(who badly needs another big D-man prospect, goalie and bottom 6 guys although they could just trade say yakupov to get one) but we arent like these guys.

We have a 30 goal scorer in Kesse(#5 overall)l, a #2 overall pick in JVR(who could easily breakout with the extra 3-4 minutes a night in toronto), a future defensive core of Gardiner(mid-first rounder), Phaneuf(#6 overall) and Rielly(#5 overall).

People that want to bottom out keep acting like we're a bottom team. When really, if Reimer goes back to normal(concussion free), we're most likely an 8th-10th pick team, and if we get Luongo, we're almost definitely in the playoffs.

an 8th-10th pick will not help us that much, those guys can takes years to develop if they even end up the way we want them too. A franchise #1 C will only be in the top 3-5(most likely, there's obviously exceptions.)

We could easily battle Clb for 30th if we get some crap goaltending.