Toggle sidebar

Playoffs: Don't Tell Me The Odds

  • Work is still on-going to rebuild the site styling and features. Please report any issues you may experience so we can look into it. Click Here for Updates
Fishhead

Fishhead

Registered User
Jul 15, 2003
7,306
5,764
PNW
It's a bit early for calculating accurate magic numbers, so here is a compilation of playoff chance percentages from four different sources that use four different models: MoneyPuck, FiveThirtyEight, PlayoffStatus, and Sports Club Stats. Some take home and away into account, some the entire season, some toss out the first 20 games (moneypuck), and so on, but taken together they give a pretty comprehensive view. On to the numbers!

Kings odds as of 3/8/2022:

MoneyPuck - 97.5%

FiveThirtyEight - 85%

PlayoffStatus - 89%

SportsClubStats - 90.2%

Average: 90.4%

Really early magic number*: 21

*Note the magic number will fluctuate depending on who is in the 3rd wild card, if they lose, 3 point games, and so on. If the Kings win this many of their remaining games they make the playoffs regardless of what other teams do.

Important games tonight

Who we want to win is in BOLD. Games where the effect is minuscule are ignored. Cheer for regulation!

VGK @ PHI
DAL @ NSH
NYR @ MIN
TBL @ WPG
ANA @ CHI
WSH @ CGY

Click to read more...
 
  • Like
Reactions: DISAVOWED, Raccoon Jesus, Dog as Man and 2 others
Master Yoda said:
And they have the Kings only winning 9 more games. And Oilers 14 more, same as Calgary.
Hilarious indeed.
Click to expand...
Well, if you were laying odds would you discount the Kings relative futility against Western Conference opponents?

This is going into the last week, hopefully Doughty isn't out for a month or longer.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rumpelstiltskin
Kings will likely make the playoffs unless they really really f*** it up and I wouldn't put it past them to do so.

March 10: Sharks
March 12: Sharks
March 17: Sharks
March 19: Knights
March 30: Oilers
March 31: Flames

Just this month alone the Kings have must wins against these teams.

The Sharks being a must win purely from the standpoint that Todd has a terrible record against them since becoming a coach for the Kings. I would like to see that 3-9 record improve before the playoffs, and actually see the Kings do well against their own division for a change.
Knights. Obviously a granted win. Neck and Neck. Oilers need to put them to bed. and the Flames would be a nice two points to get in our division.
 
bland said:
Well, if you were laying odds would you discount the Kings relative futility against Western Conference opponents?

This is going into the last week, hopefully Doughty isn't out for a month or longer.
Click to expand...
Well, they're 10-8-3 vs the west since the 1-5-1 start, and 4-1 in the last 5. Not great but certainly trending in the right direction.
 
Sol said:
Kings will likely make the playoffs unless they really really f*** it up and I wouldn't put it past them to do so.

March 10: Sharks
March 12: Sharks
March 17: Sharks
March 19: Knights
March 30: Oilers
March 31: Flames

Just this month alone the Kings have must wins against these teams.

The Sharks being a must win purely from the standpoint that Todd has a terrible record against them since becoming a coach for the Kings. I would like to see that 3-9 record improve before the playoffs, and actually see the Kings do well against their own division for a change.
Knights. Obviously a granted win. Neck and Neck. Oilers need to put them to bed. and the Flames would be a nice two points to get in our division.
Click to expand...
Wasn't it even before Todd though?

Seems like we've been bad against the Sharks ever since the reverse sweep.
 
Note that CBS projections are inherently biased because they are not strictly stat and trend-based. Simply a bunch of guesswork and too many feelings involved.
 
Last edited:
Sol said:
Kings will likely make the playoffs unless they really really f*** it up and I wouldn't put it past them to do so.

March 10: Sharks
March 12: Sharks
March 17: Sharks
March 19: Knights
March 30: Oilers
March 31: Flames

Just this month alone the Kings have must wins against these teams.

The Sharks being a must win purely from the standpoint that Todd has a terrible record against them since becoming a coach for the Kings. I would like to see that 3-9 record improve before the playoffs, and actually see the Kings do well against their own division for a change.
Knights. Obviously a granted win. Neck and Neck. Oilers need to put them to bed. and the Flames would be a nice two points to get in our division.
Click to expand...
Not to mention the Sharks will be well-rested with only 1 game in seven days leading up to Thursday.
 
Kings odds as of 3/9/2022:

MoneyPuck - 97.5% Most likely finish - 2nd place (58.8%)

FiveThirtyEight - 86%

PlayoffStatus - 89% Most likely finish - 2nd place (46%)

SportsClubStats - 90.2% (no update today)

Average: 90.7%

Really early magic number*: 21

*Note the magic number will fluctuate depending on who is in the 3rd wild card, if they lose, 3 point games, and so on. If the Kings win this many of their remaining games they make the playoffs regardless of what other teams do.

Important games tonight

Who we want to win is in BOLD. Games where the effect is minuscule are ignored. Cheer for regulation!

MTL @ VAN
WSH @ EDM
 
  • Like
Reactions: King'sPawn and Raccoon Jesus
If the Kings finish the year at .500 points% (basically the NY Islanders up to this point) they would end up with 95 points

Vegas would have to finish with 27 points in their final 21 games to match a .500 Kings team. That would require something like a 11-7-3 finish by them even if the Kings struggle down the stretch.

If the Kings finish the year at a .550 points% (currently at .607) they'd end up with 97 points. Meaning Vegas would have to finish with 29 points out of 42. Or a 69% points percentage. Currently only 4 teams in the league have a points % that high for the whole season.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Fishhead
Kings odds as of 3/14/2022:

MoneyPuck - 97.1% Most likely finish - 2nd place (62.1%)

FiveThirtyEight - 85%

PlayoffStatus - 88% Most likely finish - 2nd place (50%)

SportsClubStats - 90.6%

Average: 90.2%

Really early magic number*: 18

Right now the Kings have the 4th lowest magic number in the conference. NSH and MIN have better winning percentages, but the Central is more competitive. A side-effect of this is the Kings magic number for making the playoffs and coming in the divisional top 3 are the same. It's highly unlikely that a Pacific team gets a wild-card spot.

*Note the magic number will fluctuate depending on who is in the 3rd wild card, if they lose, 3 point games, and so on. If the Kings win this many of their remaining games they make the playoffs regardless of what other teams do.

Important games tonight

Who we want to win is in BOLD. Games where the effect is minuscule are ignored. Cheer for regulation!

No important games
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rumpelstiltskin
Herby said:
If the Kings finish the year at .500 points% (basically the NY Islanders up to this point) they would end up with 95 points

Vegas would have to finish with 27 points in their final 21 games to match a .500 Kings team. That would require something like a 11-7-3 finish by them even if the Kings struggle down the stretch.

If the Kings finish the year at a .550 points% (currently at .607) they'd end up with 97 points. Meaning Vegas would have to finish with 29 points out of 42. Or a 69% points percentage. Currently only 4 teams in the league have a points % that high for the whole season.
Click to expand...
Things are looking really bad for Vegas right now, tied with Edmonton in points (2 games in hand on Vegas) and point ahead of Dallas for the last wildcard spot (4 games in hand on Vegas). They will have to stop going the wrong way and turn it around quickly to have a shot. 97 points is the threshold for 99% playoff chance, 99 points is guaranteed in.
 
Fishhead said:
Kings odds as of 3/14/2022:

MoneyPuck - 97.1% Most likely finish - 2nd place (62.1%)

FiveThirtyEight - 85%

PlayoffStatus - 88% Most likely finish - 2nd place (50%)

SportsClubStats - 90.6%

Average: 90.2%

Really early magic number*: 18

Right now the Kings have the 4th lowest magic number in the conference. NSH and MIN have better winning percentages, but the Central is more competitive. A side-effect of this is the Kings magic number for making the playoffs and coming in the divisional top 3 are the same. It's highly unlikely that a Pacific team gets a wild-card spot.

*Note the magic number will fluctuate depending on who is in the 3rd wild card, if they lose, 3 point games, and so on. If the Kings win this many of their remaining games they make the playoffs regardless of what other teams do.

Important games tonight

Who we want to win is in BOLD. Games where the effect is minuscule are ignored. Cheer for regulation!

No important games
Click to expand...
Thank you Mr. Magic number guy, Looks like LA can start talking about clinching with about 9 more wins.
 
If you want a measure of how good a spot the Kings are in, just think about how this wasn't the best stretch of games, dropping 3 of 5, and their chances have only dropped 1.3%.


Kings odds as of 3/18/2022:

MoneyPuck - 95.5% Most likely finish - 2nd place (57.1%)

FiveThirtyEight - 84%

PlayoffStatus - 88% Most likely finish - 2nd place (49%)

SportsClubStats - 89.6%

Average: 89.3%

Somewhat early magic number*: 16

Right now the Kings have the 3rd lowest magic number in the conference (tied with STL)

*Note the magic number will fluctuate depending on who is in the 3rd wild card, if they lose, 3 point games, and so on. If the Kings win this many of their remaining games they make the playoffs regardless of what other teams do.

Important games tonight

Who we want to win is in BOLD. Games where the effect is minuscule are ignored. Cheer for regulation!

BOS @ WPG

Anaheim is less than 2% to make the playoffs, they are essentially out.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Raccoon Jesus and Herby
What's the swing on the Vegas game tomorrow?

If VGK loses, Van is 3 points back with 2 games in hand. They're taking a real run at them here. Would LOVE to make VGK worry about Van instead of us.
 
Raccoon Jesus said:
What's the swing on the Vegas game tomorrow?

If VGK loses, Van is 3 points back with 2 games in hand. They're taking a real run at them here. Would LOVE to make VGK worry about Van instead of us.
Click to expand...

The swing on the Vegas game should be around 2% for the Kings if they lose, but it's more than that in reality. Right now, magic numbers and odds are based on what Dallas is doing in 9th, but seeing how they are certain to pass Vegas losses by the Knights are truly reducing our magic number.

Vegas' playoff odds went up 8% with their win last night, and they are still at 37.6%. Vegas and Vancouver are likely worried most about Dallas, because if they go on any semblance of a streak with those games in hand they both are in huge trouble.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Raccoon Jesus
It's wild how good of a spot we are in, I thought it was much more precarious.

Obviously we don't want any kind of losing streak but it's nice that other teams are running into some struggles as well, including some of their harder games.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LAKings88
Big opportunity over the next week, the Kings can really solidify with very winnable games coming up. Playoff odds are already the highest they've been since I started tracking.

Kings odds as of 3/23/2022:

MoneyPuck - 92.3% Most likely finish - 2nd place (48.7%)

FiveThirtyEight - 89%

PlayoffStatus - 91% Most likely finish - 2nd place (58%)

SportsClubStats - 93.1%

Average: 91.35%

Magic number*: 14

Right now the Kings have the 3rd lowest magic number in the conference (tied with STL & NSH)

*Note the magic number will fluctuate depending on who is in the 3rd wild card, if they lose, 3 point games, and so on. If the Kings win this many of their remaining games they make the playoffs regardless of what other teams do.

Important games tonight

Who we want to win is in BOLD. Games where the effect is minuscule are ignored. Cheer for regulation!

VAN @ COL
 
  • Like
Reactions: Lt Dan, YP44, lumbergh and 1 other person
Fishhead said:
Big opportunity over the next week, the Kings can really solidify with very winnable games coming up. Playoff odds are already the highest they've been since I started tracking.

Kings odds as of 3/23/2022:

MoneyPuck - 92.3% Most likely finish - 2nd place (48.7%)

FiveThirtyEight - 89%

PlayoffStatus - 91% Most likely finish - 2nd place (58%)

SportsClubStats - 93.1%

Average: 91.35%

Magic number*: 14

Right now the Kings have the 3rd lowest magic number in the conference (tied with STL & NSH)

*Note the magic number will fluctuate depending on who is in the 3rd wild card, if they lose, 3 point games, and so on. If the Kings win this many of their remaining games they make the playoffs regardless of what other teams do.

Important games tonight

Who we want to win is in BOLD. Games where the effect is minuscule are ignored. Cheer for regulation!

VAN @ COL
Click to expand...
And we all know how that works.
 
  • Haha
  • Like
Reactions: Lt Dan, Raccoon Jesus and Fishhead
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Top Bottom