Playoffs 2023 - Don't Tell Me The Odds

[Fishhead]

Update: 4/2


Playoff Chances: 100%

Magic Number (points) - 0


Clinched at least 7th position. I will post scenarios for home-ice, division, etc. as they arise here.

Click to read more...

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

f***ING JINX THREAD

jk thank you for your work

 

[Surf Nutz]

Obviously in much better shape this year!

Note: all sources might not be updated to equivalent dates


Kings odds as of 2/20/2023:

MoneyPuck - 93.7%

FiveThirtyEight - 89%

PlayoffStatus - 93%

SportsClubStats - 91.5%

Average: 91.8%

Magic Number (points) - 44

Estimated record for 100% playoff chance - 14-9-3, 100 points.

Important games today - Most beneficial to clinch playoffs are bolded

PHI vs CGY

SEA vs SJ

Yes thank you cutting and pasting can be grueling, but 10 times!!!?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Just hit me that there are only 25 games left.

 

[Fishhead]

If they miss the playoffs I take full responsibility.

Home ice is about 50/50 right now.

 

[johnjm22]

When you think about our potential playoff matchups, it feels like we have a solid chance against any of them.

The West is very wide open, and things are starting to come together down the stretch for LA.

 

[Faterson]

Important games today - Most beneficial to clinch playoffs are bolded

PHI vs CGY

SEA vs SJ

The Kraken got shut out tonight, and the Flyers lead by a goal with 3 minutes left. Couldn't ask for more!

 

[Sol]

This is exactly why I am getting a surround sound system installed in a few days. Want more immersion for the playoffs. Also, we got tickets for last Oilers game at Crypto. Felt like it’d be a big game so we are gonna go.

 

[Fishhead]

The Kraken got shut out tonight, and the Flyers lead by a goal with 3 minutes left. Couldn't ask for more!

Markstrom looked terrible on the go ahead goal. The only thing I can think of is he was completely unaware of Allison, otherwise it was a simple poke to make the play harmless.

The Flames in general are just falling apart. Sutter sucked the fun out of another team

 

[Surf Nutz]

If they miss the playoffs I take full responsibility.

Home ice is about 50/50 right now.

Winning the division , as everyone understands, and playing a wild card in the first round is a great way to build into the second round on an easier path.
I hope the Kings go all out to get in front of the ugly cities battling us.
I like how Blake is poking around but not overpaying, especially for Chickrdone.
Guys probably hiding another injury.
Guy is not even worth anything more than Turcotte and some cast offs.
No number one. I wouldn't even give them Chromiak, if they valued him as a first.
Don't mortgage the future.
Try to make one additional round in the playoffs each year and if you go further, great

 

[kilowatt]

We officially have a better record than Seattle

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Going to be a wild finish to the season. Hopefully Copley keeps up the decent play and we remain injury free.

 

[AbsentMojo]

If they miss the playoffs I take full responsibility.

Home ice is about 50/50 right now.

I dont think reporting facts is jinx eligible... you're good!

Winning the division , as everyone understands, and playing a wild card in the first round is a great way to build into the second round on an easier path.

Dont want to derail a good post... but remember what the 11/12 Kings did to the poor Sedins. I just hope Colorado catches fire and finishes closer to where they belong in the rankings and not a wildcard

 

[KingsHockey24]

I'd be genuinely surprised if we missed the playoffs.

 

[Surf Nutz]

LA Kings: Trade Deadline Wishlist

Discussing a few players that GM Rob Blake should have his eyes set on to help make the LA Kings legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.

hockeyroyalty.com

That one suggestion I don't like but I like the other two.

 

[FSL KINGS]

To drop out 2 of Calgary, Nashville, Minnesota would have to catch the King's & the King's drop out of top 3 of the division.

8 point lead on Flames, same games played. They'd have to go on a heater & Pheonix coming back to earth. Not impossible. Unlikely with Flames playing badly right now.

 

[Faterson]

Rare opportunity tomorrow to take the lead in the entire Western Conference, as long as the Kings win & Vegas lose in regulation. (Never mind that that lead would only be good for a wild-card spot in the east.)

 

[Fishhead]

To drop out 2 of Calgary, Nashville, Minnesota would have to catch the King's & the King's drop out of top 3 of the division.

8 point lead on Flames, same games played. They'd have to go on a heater & Pheonix coming back to earth. Not impossible. Unlikely with Flames playing badly right now.

With 3 point games, it makes it extremely unlikely. Nashville has a brutal last month of the season, practically all against good teams. Calgary is a mess.

I don't see Minnesota dropping out, they are very good at the "play to not lose" system. Calgary is fighting themselves, I don't really see them pulling it together. In any case, they have 3 left against the Knights, and lets say the flames go crazy and win all 3 to strengthen their spot. Well, that means the Kings gain on Vegas and makes top 3 more likely.

 

[bouncesonly]

After Game 46, against the Devils, Quick finished with 8-8-4 (40% win rate), Copley finished with 12-2-0 (85% win rate)

After game 57, against the Coyotes, Quick finished with 10-10-4 (41% win rate), Copley finished with 17-3-1 (81% win rate).

Quick improved his average by winning 50% of his games since game 46, Copley regressed a little, winning 71% since game 46.

Based on the current win rates of 41% for Quick and 81% for Copley....Kings can actually rest Copley a little by giving Quick the extra game when even splitting 25 games (play him 13 games vs 12 for Copley), if the magic number is 100.

 

[Fishhead]

After Game 46, against the Devils, Quick finished with 8-8-4 (40% win rate), Copley finished with 12-2-0 (85% win rate)

After game 57, against the Coyotes, Quick finished with 10-10-4 (41% win rate), Copley finished with 17-3-1 (81% win rate).

Quick improved his average by winning 50% of his games since game 46, Copley regressed a little, winning 71% since game 46.

Based on the current win rates of 41% for Quick and 81% for Copley....Kings can actually rest Copley a little by giving Quick the extra game when even splitting 25 games (play him 13 games vs 12 for Copley), if the magic number is 100.

100 points is the "sure thing" number really, 98 in reality will probably get them in. So yeah, there is some wiggle room as far as starters down the stretch.

 

[Fishhead]

Update: 2/28

 

[fsanford]

Kings have a very nice schedule setting up.
Islanders only eastern playoff team they face.

3 against Canucks, Caps, Habs, Blues twice, C-Bus, Preds, Ducks, Flames twice.

Knights once,
Kraken once
Oilers Twice
Avs Twice

6 against playoff teams, 12 against non playoff teams

Vegas
Carolina Twice
NJ once
Oilers Twice
Kings Once
Lightning once
Wild Twice
Stars Once
Kraken Twice

12 games against playoff teams.

All games are tough, but it does set up for the Kings, hopefully they can go on a run in March

 

[Fishhead]

Updated 3/5.

Probably will switch to emphasizing seeding soon.

 

[johnjm22]

Things are lining up pretty well for LA. They have the 6th easiest schedule in the league from here on out.

Vegas has the 15th easiest remaining schedule.

 

[Fishhead]

Things are lining up pretty well for LA. They have the 6th easiest schedule in the league from here on out.

Vegas has the 15th easiest remaining schedule.

Absolutely. I expect their magic number to go down slowly until about St. Patrick's day, after that it could drop like a stone. I think Nashville will probably hold onto 9th, and starting with 3/18 their schedule to the end is: WPG-NYR-BUF-SEA-SEA-TOR-BOS-PIT-STL-DAL-VGK-CAR-WPG-CGY-MIN-COL.

I expect them to clinch with around 2 weeks left in the season. I don't think first round opponents will become clear until the last week though, barring one of the top-4 pac teams streaking like crazy or going in the tank.