Playoff Watch 2021

[Brian39]

I think LA in particular is underrated. They might not have the big guns, but they have some good young players and play a sound defensive trap system. Combine this with Quick still having some gas in the tank, and you have a team that is not easy to play against.

I agree with you in terms of pre-season expectation. The idea that they would be a bottom 5 team this year was probably way too pessimistic. But I think that their current status as a team that might chase the playoff bubble is accurate.

They are currently a .519 points percentage team with a 25% PP and 84% PK. Their goalies are currently posting a .914 and they are bottom 5 in pretty much every possession/advanced 5 on 5 metric. I think they are closer to "competent NHL team" than "easy 2 points" but I also don't think that they are going to hang around this close to a playoff spot for much longer. For as bad as we've looked for the last 3 weeks, the Kings have managed to lose ground to us in the playoff hunt over that stretch. Since February 22, we have the same number of points as them despite playing 1 fewer game. And that includes 4 head to head matchups where the Kings took 7 points from us.

They play Vegas this weekend while we play the Sharks. I'm still very much on the "none of these games are must-win" train, but we have a real chance to pretty much end the Kings playoff hopes by the end of this week. A regulation win tonight followed by a split vs San Jose could very well give us a 9 point cushion. Vegas is rolling so they could definitely sweep the Kings this weekend. Now, I fully expect the Blues to keep the Kings in it by at least giving them a point, but I bring this up to show that even with good special teams and goaltending, the Kings are still operating on pretty thin margins.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Pos	Team	PT+	GR	RW	ROW	Max PTS
1​	Vegas​	+14​	29​	15​	20​	99​
2​	Minnesota​	+10​	29​	14​	18​	95​
3​	Colorado​	+9​	29​	14​	17​	94​
4​	St. Louis​	+4​	27​	10​	13​	87​
5​	Los Angeles​	+2​	28​	10​	11​	86​
6​	Arizona​	-1​	27​	10​	10​	82​
7​	San Jose​	-2​	29​	6​	7​	83​
8​	Anaheim​	-8​	26​	5​	7​	74​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Short: don't bother talking about getting into the top-3 until we make room on the team behind us breathing down our necks for the final playoff spot.
Also: any and all ______ really isn't that good talk is throwing stones, because at the moment we're a dumpster fire.

 

[MissouriMook]

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

So about when does this become a tank thread?

 

[TK 421]

So about when does this become a tank thread?

We have to wait for the normally sane, level headed posters to lose it first. Then it's all hands on deck.

 

[brokeu91]

We have to wait for the normally sane, level headed posters to lose it first. Then it's all hands on deck.

 

[The Note]

We have to wait for the normally sane, level headed posters to lose it first. Then it's all hands on deck.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

So about when does this become a tank thread?

We're still a long ways away from that, and the proposed changes to the draft lottery kind of hamper the usefulness of it. We'd have to fall off the edge of the cliff to get in a position for the #1 spot - which could happen, but if that happens I think a few currently buried threads will get dug out, dusted off and people will start commenting on them again.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

So about when does this become a tank thread?

It would have a sad symmetry to the famous thread from 2019. I vote no!

What I will say is that we might need to start paying attention to San Jose’s results too. They nearly beat Vegas last night and are close enough to make things interesting if the Blues slump gets long. Losing in regulation to the Kings is the worst possible result. At least there is only one more game with Arizona, but they’re kind of fading anyway.

I see little hope that the Blues will claw into the top 3, and I am not sure it really matters much. Away ice advantage can be secured through the playoffs if they qualify in the lowest seed, so maybe that’s what we should root for.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

So about when does this become a tank thread?

 

[AjaxManifesto]

So sad....

I think we languish through the remainder of the regular season.

I'll wait patiently for the next season to start in the Fall.

 

[Brian39]

What I will say is that we might need to start paying attention to San Jose’s results too. They nearly beat Vegas last night and are close enough to make things interesting if the Blues slump gets long.

I'd be very surprised if the Sharks manage to pass us without LA and/or Anaheim also catching us. They almost beat Vegas in the sense that they would have won if they didn't allow four goals in the 3rd period. If we're betting on which tandems across the league might keep doing that, I would put my money on Jones/Dubnyk.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I'd be very surprised if the Sharks manage to pass us without LA and/or Anaheim also catching us. They almost beat Vegas in the sense that they would have won if they didn't allow four goals in the 3rd period. If we're betting on which tandems across the league might keep doing that, I would put my money on Jones/Dubnyk.

LA seems like best of the Cali/Arizona teams to me. And not really close.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I'd be very surprised if the Sharks manage to pass us without LA and/or Anaheim also catching us. They almost beat Vegas in the sense that they would have won if they didn't allow four goals in the 3rd period. If we're betting on which tandems across the league might keep doing that, I would put my money on Jones/Dubnyk.

I’m mainly noting their potential point total is still in striking range and they were competitive in a game vs the division leader. I wouldn’t be shocked if they ran off a 4-5 game winning streak and are suddenly in the conversation.

 

[Ranksu]

So about when does this become a tank thread?

We have to wait for the normally sane, level headed posters to lose it first. Then it's all hands on deck.

 

[HighNote]

Schwartz coming back is huge, Parayko eventually coming back is even huger. I expect the 2nd half of this season to go better than the 1st half. I think we'll get 3rd or 4th.

 

[TheDizee]

could really care less how they play now aslong as they lockup a playoff spot and start playing the right way down the stretch

 

[Stealth JD]

i think they're in free fall mode for another couple weeks and bottom out with an even win & regulation-loss record before hitting their stride and distancing themselves from the 5-8 seeds. All they've got to do is enter the playoffs healthy and give themselves a chance.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Schwartz coming back is huge, Parayko eventually coming back is even huger. I expect the 2nd half of this season to go better than the 1st half. I think we'll get 3rd or 4th.

Parayko back is huge IF he comes back at 100%. If not, then it's TBD. If he returns and is getting walked again and again like he was before he sat out, that's not a positive for us.

 

[Stealth JD]

Parayko back is huge IF he comes back at 100%. If not, then it's TBD. If he returns and is getting walked again and again like he was before he sat out, that's not a positive for us.

sure it is. I thought I read somewhere that he was on the ice for 11 goals for and 11 goals against before he left with injury. If he only comes back to that level those are minutes that the Blues aren't getting caved in defensively...which in turn should allow Krug and Faulk to be positive difference makers on the 2nd pairing rather than negative difference makers on the first. If Parayko comes back at all, it's a net gain for the group...and probably enough to squeak them into the 4-seed. If he's not significantly better however, it will be a short playoff stay; but him coming back in any capacity is better than dispatching in any capacity the 6-guys they're going with today.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

sure it is. I thought I read somewhere that he was on the ice for 11 goals for and 11 goals against before he left with injury. If he only comes back to that level those are minutes that the Blues aren't getting caved in defensively...which in turn should allow Krug and Faulk to be positive difference makers on the 2nd pairing rather than negative difference makers on the first. If Parayko comes back at all, it's a net gain for the group...and probably enough to squeak them into the 4-seed. If he's not significantly better however, it will be a short playoff stay; but him coming back in any capacity is better than dispatching in any capacity the 6-guys they're going with today.

Even strength: GF = 12, GA = 11. There's also 6 PPGA.

Colton Parayko Stats | Hockey-Reference.com - Miscellaneous Stats

But again, go back to the point I raise: it depends on how he plays. If he's at 100% and logging 24+ minutes a night [prior to 1/30 he was averaging 24:39 a game, lowest was 22:56 vs. San Jose in the 3rd game of the season] yeah, we're absolutely better. If he's not 100% [from 1/30 on, he was averaging 20:11 a night with only 2 games over 21 minutes] and everyone else realizes it, what might happen on paper with him in is probably different because others are going to have to step up and play minutes he can't and there's the possibility [likelihood] that guys have to adjust what they're doing to help him out.

He's been out a month, he's just doing light skating now, he's likely at least a few weeks away. Until we hear he's in team practices and taking contact and looking 100%, I don't think anyone should be inking him in for a return soon and at that level.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Pos	Team	PT+	GR	RW	ROW	Max PTS
1​	Vegas​	+15​	28​	16​	21​	99​
2​	Colorado​	+10​	28​	15​	18​	94​
3​	Minnesota​	+9​	28​	14​	18​	93​
4​	St. Louis​	+5​	26​	10​	13​	87​
5​	Los Angeles​	+1​	27​	10​	11​	84​
6​	Arizona​	-1​	26​	10​	10​	81​
7​	San Jose​	-2​	28​	6​	7​	82​
8​	Anaheim​	-7​	25​	5​	8​	74​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Ted Hoffman]

We got help from Vegas last night, which we desperately needed along with getting 2 points. I suspect after tonight we could be 7 points up on the Kings, which leaves us some breathing room. If we could match up against Minnesota favorably, that would be awesome and ease a lot of concerns about picking up points and holding L.A. off.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Pos	Team	PT+	GR	RW	ROW	Max PTS
1​	Vegas​	+15​	28​	16​	21​	99​
2​	Colorado​	+11​	27​	16​	19​	94​
3​	Minnesota​	+8​	27​	14​	18​	91​
4​	St. Louis​	+6​	25​	11​	14​	87​
5​	Los Angeles​	+1​	27​	10​	11​	84​
6​	Arizona​	0​	25​	11​	11​	81​
7​	San Jose​	-3​	27​	6​	7​	80​
8​	Anaheim​	-8​	24​	5​	8​	72​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If the number is really 62, Anaheim is fast approaching elimination.

 

[Ranksu]

Next 14 games Vegas x 3, Wild x 4 and Avs x 4 and just 2 games only vs Anaheim and 1 vs Arizona.

Crucial games, we could be #1-2 spot or #4-5 after those games.