Speculation: Player Discussion: Will Smith

[Jargon]

My biggest conspiracy theory is that the "development plan" was just a sham to make Smith feel better about us healthy scratching him in order to try to win games. It's no coincidence that Celebrini (who was helping us win games from day one) has never had a development day, and Smith's development days have been few and far between since he also started to help us win games.

My counterpoint would be that Warsofsky would then have to be lying when he said it was worked out with Will and Grier before the season started, which would give it away to Will. Unless they agreed on the vague idea of development days but it was secretly a lever to for Warsofsky when he wasn’t playing well, I guess.

I think probably what’s likelier is that they’re doing less dev days because they sort of suggested they would dwindle through the season and we’re in December so that checks out.

OR MAYBE THATS WHAT THEY WANT US TO THINK

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

My counterpoint would be that Warsofsky would then have to be lying when he said it was worked out with Will and Grier before the season started, which would give it away to Will. Unless they agreed on the vague idea of development days but it was secretly a lever to for Warsofsky when he wasn’t playing well, I guess.

I think probably what’s likelier is that they’re doing less dev days because they sort of suggested they would dwindle through the season and we’re in December so that checks out.

OR MAYBE THATS WHAT THEY WANT US TO THINK

Okay yeah. If they said that they talked with Smith about it before the year, then that kinda kills the theory as it was presented.

But I will still say that they don't seem to be super principled about the development days, and appear to be willing to forego the plan as soon as they see the possibility for more wins. Because Celebrini is only 18, he's already been injured, he's playing 20 minutes per game, and hasn't even had a development day yet.

 

[coooldude]

Okay yeah. If they said that they talked with Smith about it before the year, then that kinda kills the theory as it was presented.

But I will still say that they don't seem to be super principled about the development days, and appear to be willing to forego the plan as soon as they see the possibility for more wins. Because Celebrini is only 18, he's already been injured, he's playing 20 minutes per game, and hasn't even had a development day yet.

They've been pretty clear on the record that they're using Catapult load data to determine how much load they're targeting in the first half of the season, with the guideline that teens have a well established higher injury risk in their first few seasons in the NHL. It could just be that since Macklin already missed a bunch of games + his body is handling the load well, that they don't need to give him the dev days.

 

[StrawHatEklund]

Will Smith up to 11 points in 22. So 11 in 14 after starting 0 points in 8 games. Super consistent as of late and happy to see him play back to back.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Will Smith up to 11 points in 22. So 11 in 14 after starting 0 points in 8 games. Super consistent an of late and happy to see him play back to back.

8 in his last 10 when he’s been on the wing. Please correct me if I’m wrong. Smith seems like he gets it offensively from the wing. Ride it while he’s hot then move him back to center when it cools off.

 

[Barrie22]

8 in his last 10 when he’s been on the wing. Please correct me if I’m wrong. Smith seems like he gets it offensively from the wing. Ride it while he’s hot then move him back to center when it cools off.

It seems the coaching staff or by accident (not sure which) is slowly getting smith more and more faceoffs also.

At the start of the switch to wing he was getting 0, now he is getting 2 or 3 a game again.

 

[Juxtaposer]

8 in his last 10 when he’s been on the wing. Please correct me if I’m wrong. Smith seems like he gets it offensively from the wing. Ride it while he’s hot then move him back to center when it cools off.

Nah, keep him at wing until the deadline when Granlund moves or someone gets hurt.

 

[Star Platinum]

 

[BaileyMacTavish]

Smitty has been on fire and honestly it's so refreshing to see.

 

[Jargon]

That goal was all confidence. But more importantly I saw him win a few battles and he’s generally looked faster and less lost. It’s also kinda funny that he and Celebrini are going point for point in the last 3 (?) games.

 

[karltonian]

Granny Smith is

 

[sharski]

At this rate I feel like we're gonna see him score a no look between the legs one timer soon

 

[cheechoo]

Granny Smith is

This nickname is so good

 

[sampler]

Granny is a great match for him at both ends. I’m amazed at the strides he’s taken in the last two weeks. I hope he keeps it going, especially defensively.

Btw, crow is really deliciously underrated. I love eating it!!

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

8 in his last 10 when he’s been on the wing. Please correct me if I’m wrong. Smith seems like he gets it offensively from the wing. Ride it while he’s hot then move him back to center when it cools off.

That’s been my argument since day one, put him in the wing until he is ready to play center even Pavelski started as a winger before sliding into the center roll

 

[Pinkfloyd]

That’s been my argument since day one, put him in the wing until he is ready to play center even Pavelski started as a winger before sliding into the center roll

It helps having all three of Celebrini, Granlund, and Wennberg healthy so that Smith can at least play with one of them to develop his offensive game.

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

It helps having all three of Celebrini, Granlund, and Wennberg healthy so that Smith can at least play with one of them to develop his offensive game.

I understand trying to give him a chance but after the first 5 games it was crystal clear he wasn’t ready to play center in the NHL, he will be eventually just not now. Even with Mack out of the lineup it shouldn’t have mattered

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I understand trying to give him a chance but after the first 5 games it was crystal clear he wasn’t ready to play center in the NHL, he will be eventually just not now. Even with Mack out of the lineup it shouldn’t have mattered

Yeah but if one or more are out, it’s either Smith or Goodrow or Sturm or Dellandrea trying instead and the team probably gets more out of Smith getting experience there over such options.

 

[coooldude]

Good call @Sendhelplease to move the Convo here.

Most of the possession stats show that smith is actually one of the top forwards on this team.

Are the possession stats in the room with us?

But seriously, what are you referring to? Because every stat I've seen so far has not shown Smith to be a top forward on this team, especially not in possession. Most of his goals are in transition or on turnovers and he's very often involved in a lost possession and rarely driving a takeaway.

that's very different from what people are saying here, which is he doesn't look like an NHLer and should be sent down.

There might be two posters saying he should be sent down.

Smith's hot streak coincided with two things: 1) playing bad teams, 2) better line combos because we had a better Granlund, Kostin available. Last night losing Eklund also hurt a ton, leaving us with like 1/3 of an NHL top 6 with how Granlund is playing.

I'm definitely of the mind that he's not a consistent NHL player yet. I was stumping hard for him to be back with Granlund, but not today's Granlund. That line would just lose possession and get hemmed into the DZ, just like the Lund line is in the last few games.

I bet we'll see another Smith stretch of good games but it will not likely be in early January. It may be the few games before the end of the year here vs. less challenging opponents and after a few days off.

Either way the choice not to play Smith in the top 6 makes more sense when the top 6 is struggling as much as they are and vs better teams. Also, the Eklund-Wennberg-Smith line was effectively a second line style line and did nothing in two games vs better opponents, so it's not like he's stapled to Sturm or Dellandrea.

I think this whole conversation is much ado about nothing, nothing to see here, 19 year old with lots of talent can't quite hang with grown men getting paid millions, needs at least 1.5yrs more before even sniffing at an assessment of his trajectory.

 

[wickedwitch]

There are two different but related questions:
1) How good is Smith now?
2) What do they need to do now to maximize Smith's ability for 2-5 years from now?

Smith clearly isn't a good NHL player now. But he's arguably still a top 12 forward on the Sharks.

So given that -- and the fact that the Sharks almost certainly told/implied to his team he wouldn't be sent to the AHL to get him to sign -- and the fact that the Sharks are not Cup contenders this year, the question becomes, how should the team handle Smith?

IMO, as I've written before, a player like Smith needs some time with other skilled players. However, that doesn't mean he has to play 100% of the time with other skilled players. I don't know exactly what that percentage should be, just that it shouldn't be zero. But that leaves a wide range of possibilities on how to handle him.

 

[Barrie22]

Good call @Sendhelplease to move the Convo here.


Are the possession stats in the room with us?

But seriously, what are you referring to? Because every stat I've seen so far has not shown Smith to be a top forward on this team, especially not in possession. Most of his goals are in transition or on turnovers and he's very often involved in a lost possession and rarely driving a takeaway.

There might be two posters saying he should be sent down.

Smith's hot streak coincided with two things: 1) playing bad teams, 2) better line combos because we had a better Granlund, Kostin available. Last night losing Eklund also hurt a ton, leaving us with like 1/3 of an NHL top 6 with how Granlund is playing.

I'm definitely of the mind that he's not a consistent NHL player yet. I was stumping hard for him to be back with Granlund, but not today's Granlund. That line would just lose possession and get hemmed into the DZ, just like the Lund line is in the last few games.

I bet we'll see another Smith stretch of good games but it will not likely be in early January. It may be the few games before the end of the year here vs. less challenging opponents and after a few days off.

Either way the choice not to play Smith in the top 6 makes more sense when the top 6 is struggling as much as they are and vs better teams. Also, the Eklund-Wennberg-Smith line was effectively a second line style line and did nothing in two games vs better opponents, so it's not like he's stapled to Sturm or Dellandrea.

I think this whole conversation is much ado about nothing, nothing to see here, 19 year old with lots of talent can't quite hang with grown men getting paid millions, needs at least 1.5yrs more before even sniffing at an assessment of his trajectory.

The hot streak came against ottawa (playoffs), kings (playoffs), Seattle.

He is at 47.7% sat% (3rd in forwards), 45.9% usat% (7th in forwards), 12.06 isat/60 (7th), -31 sat (7th), sat% rel 2.5 (4th), usat% rel 1.2 (7th),

 

[coooldude]

Here's way too many stats that argue that Smith is not one of our best possession forwards, that his best stat is a decent Corsi%, and that he's also being sheltered with the fewest DZ starts on the team as % of shifts.

On-ice possession metrics from Moneypuck (using the custom graph and the player page sorted to Sharks):

• On-ice xGF vs xGA - Smith is in the "bad" quadrant, just below average xGF and above average xGA.
• But his linemates are dragging him down! Well, relative xG% vs. Relative Corsi%: above average and top 7 in relCorsi%, but bottom 7 in rel xG%.
• 8th on the team in On-ice Corsi @ 51%
• 13th in unblocked shot attempts% (Fenwick) @ 49%
• 7th best at on-ice shot attempts against /60 and 8th best at on-ice shot attempts for /60.
• Fewest DZ starts as % of his total shifts on the team... 8th highest starts on the fly, 8th highest starts in the OZ. So he's being sheltered from the DZ and not really catered to otherwise.

Other relevant F metrics:

• He's in the "finisher/lucky" quadrant for our team - above avg shooting% on unblocked shots, but lower than average expected shooting on unblocked shots (not great chances vs. others)
• 15th in off-ice xG%
• 14th in relative xG%
• 10th in on-ice xGF/60
• 10th worst (16th) in On-ice xGA/60

Here's NaturalStatTrick just to check the work, all #'s vs. rest of Sharks:

• 6th in CF% at 47%
• 9th in FF% at 46%
• 19th in GF%
• 15th in xGF%
• 12th overall in iXG (individual xG created)
• 12th in iCF (individual shots for created)
• 14th in iFF (individual unblocked shots for created)
• 9th in iSCF (individual scoring chances by player)
• 16th in iHDCF (individual high danger shots for created)

The hot streak came against ottawa (playoffs), kings (playoffs), Seattle.

He is at 47.7% sat% (3rd in forwards), 45.9% usat% (7th in forwards), 12.06 isat/60 (7th), -31 sat (7th), sat% rel 2.5 (4th), usat% rel 1.2 (7th),

What are sat%, usat%, isat%? Is sat "shot attempt%" aka CorsI? Where are you getting these stats? So far the only thing that jives with MoneyPuck or NaturalStatTrick are the 6th in CF%, but that's basically the only stat that kind of, sort of argues what you're trying to argue. Everything else is pretty clearly showing that he's playing at the third line level of play.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Here's way too many stats that argue that Smith is not one of our best possession forwards, that his best stat is a decent Corsi%, and that he's also being sheltered with the fewest DZ starts on the team as % of shifts.

On-ice possession metrics from Moneypuck (using the custom graph and the player page sorted to Sharks):

• On-ice xGF vs xGA - Smith is in the "bad" quadrant, just below average xGF and above average xGA.
• But his linemates are dragging him down! Well, relative xG% vs. Relative Corsi%: above average and top 7 in relCorsi%, but bottom 7 in rel xG%.
• 8th on the team in On-ice Corsi @ 51%
• 13th in unblocked shot attempts% (Fenwick) @ 49%
• 7th best at on-ice shot attempts against /60 and 8th best at on-ice shot attempts for /60.
• Fewest DZ starts as % of his total shifts on the team... 8th highest starts on the fly, 8th highest starts in the OZ. So he's being sheltered from the DZ and not really catered to otherwise.

Other relevant F metrics:

• He's in the "finisher/lucky" quadrant for our team - above avg shooting% on unblocked shots, but lower than average expected shooting on unblocked shots (not great chances vs. others)
• 15th in off-ice xG%
• 14th in relative xG%
• 10th in on-ice xGF/60
• 10th worst (16th) in On-ice xGA/60

Here's NaturalStatTrick just to check the work, all #'s vs. rest of Sharks:

• 6th in CF% at 47%
• 9th in FF% at 46%
• 19th in GF%
• 15th in xGF%
• 12th overall in iXG (individual xG created)
• 12th in iCF (individual shots for created)
• 14th in iFF (individual unblocked shots for created)
• 9th in iSCF (individual scoring chances by player)
• 16th in iHDCF (individual high danger shots for created)

What are sat%, usat%, isat%? Is sat "shot attempt%" aka CorsI? Where are you getting these stats? So far the only thing that jives with MoneyPuck or NaturalStatTrick are the 6th in CF%, but that's basically the only stat that kind of, sort of argues what you're trying to argue. Everything else is pretty clearly showing that he's playing at the third line level of play.

I mean looking at his per 60 minute metrics he has had a very similar impact to Celebrini so far at 5v5. Obviously Celebrini has had more difficult deployment, but I think it's hard to argue based on any of that Smith only deserves 3rd line minutes so far.

And even if Smith's impact metrics were bad (they aren't) you need to continue giving young players time, which Warsofsky has been terrible at so far. I remember Habs fans laughing last year because Logan Cooley had one of the lowest xGF% of all time. Now Utah is being rewarded because he was given the opportunity to make mistakes.

 

[hohosaregood]

He's mostly been fine for the last month or so but has had a particularly bad stretch recently. And it doesn't really matter if he's getting line juggled. He's still showing technical improvements and puck touches.

i'll say this though, smith metrics > fantilli/carlsson metrics

 

[coooldude]

I mean looking at his per 60 minute metrics he has had a very similar impact to Celebrini so far at 5v5. Obviously Celebrini has had more difficult deployment, but I think it's hard to argue based on any of that Smith only deserves 3rd line minutes so far.

And even if Smith's impact metrics were bad (they aren't) you need to continue giving young players time, which Warsofsky has been terrible at so far. I remember Habs fans laughing last year because Logan Cooley had one of the lowest xGF% of all time. Now Utah is being rewarded because he was given the opportunity to make mistakes.

I'm all for him making mistakes, and getting more deployment, and I'm definitely not arguing he should be sent down. I am arguing that I don't think putting him with Granlund right now is going to be very helpful because Granlund is on the struggle bus, and Eklund is now out, and if we put him with Celebrini then sure, but I don't think they'll do much more than get some rush chances. Could try Kovalenko-Celebrini-Smith, could try Zetts on LW off-wing I guess... If Kostin's back, could try Kostin-Celebrini-Smith?

I think you're smarter than to argue that Smith has had similar impact to Celebrini at 5v5. All this WITH harder deployment...

• On-ice xGF/60: Mack 2nd to Toff at 4.46, Smith at 10th, 2.61
• On-ice xG%: Mack 2nd to Toff at 59.3%, Smith 14th, 43.2%
• Relative xG%: Mack 2nd to Toff at 26.3%, Smith 14th at -0.6%
• On-ice Shot Attempts For / 60: Mack 2nd to Toff at 71.4, Smith at 8th, 61.1
• On-ice SOG/60: Mack 2nd at 10.22, Smith 8th at 5.99
• On-ice HDSF/60: Mack 2nd at 5.77, Smith 19th at 2.1
• On-ice xGA/60: Mack 10th at 3.06, Smith 16th at 3.44
• On-ice SAA/60: Mack 4th at 54.09, Smith 7th at 57.65
• First metric Smith is better than Mack: On-ice HDSAA/60: Smith 14th at 3.74, Mack 19th at 4.21